2022 Oscar Nomination Predictions (September)

Farewell Emmys, hello Oscars!

It feels all too recent that awards prognosticators, myself included, were pulling their hair out over whether it’d be CODA or The Power of the Dog in Best Picture. Now, six months later, the latest plethora of Oscar contenders are getting ready for battle, with many surfacing at the Telluride, Toronto and Venice Film Festivals.

In recent days, with early reviews dropping on a number of wannabe honorees, I’ve found myself tinkering with predictions over and over again. My initial, pre-festival hunches were jam-packed with the likes of Bardo (or False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths), Empire of Light and The Son, films which - on paper but evidently not in reality - looked like daunting awards season contenders.

It’s hard to be terribly confident about anything at this stage in the game. The likes of Everything Everywhere All at Once and Top Gun: Maverick have already proven critical and commercial smashes - the question is whether these earlier releases sustain that momentum heading into the fall and winter.

In the acting fields, the likes of Cate Blanchett, Michelle Yeoh, Brendan Fraser, Colin Farrell, Austin Butler and Michelle Williams have already scored raves for their turns and will surely be prominent players throughout the season. Many performances, however, have yet to be seen, so to call any of them shoo-ins would make me a silly goose.

And yes, I will presume Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon is not happening until 2023.

With that said, here are my hunches for now in the top eight categories, ranked from most to least likely to be nominated. I’ll update these at some point next month, at which point we’ll perhaps have a tad more clarity.

Enjoy! :)

Best Picture

1. The Fabelmans

2. Babylon

3. The Banshees of Inisherin

4. She Said

5. Armageddon Time

6. Everything Everywhere All at Once

7. Top Gun: Maverick

8. Women Talking

9. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

10. Avatar: The Way of Water
    —

11. The Whale

12. TÁR

13. Decision to Leave

14. Triangle of Sadness

15. Elvis

Best Director

1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans

2. Damien Chazelle, Babylon

3. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave

4. Maria Schrader, She Said

5. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
   —

6. James Gray, Armageddon Time

7. Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness

8. Darren Aronofsky, The Whale

9. Sarah Polley, Women Talking

10. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Best Actress

1. Cate Blanchett, TÁR

2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

3. Margot Robbie, Babylon

4. Carey Mulligan, She Said

5. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light
   —

6. Viola Davis, The Woman King

7. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody

8. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway

9. Zoe Kazan, She Said

10. Danielle Deadwyler, Till

Best Actor

1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale

2. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin

3. Austin Butler, Elvis

4. Hugh Jackman, The Son

5. Bill Nighy, Living
   —

6. Adam Driver, White Noise

7. Diego Calva, Babylon

8. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick

9. Song Kang-ho, Broker

10. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection

Best Supporting Actress

1. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans

2. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking

3. Jean Smart, Babylon

4. Hong Chau, The Whale

5. Samantha Morton, She Said
   —

6. Claire Foy, Women Talking

7. Sadie Sink, The Whale

8. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin

9. Laura Dern, The Son

10. Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Best Supporting Actor

1. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin

2. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans

3. Brad Pitt, Babylon

4. Anthony Hopkins, Armageddon Time

5. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
   —

6. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness

7. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking

8. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans

9. Jeremy Strong, Armageddon Time

10. Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway

Best Original Screenplay

1. Steven Spielberg and Tony Kushner, The Fabelmans

2. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin

3. Damien Chazelle, Babylon

4. Jeong Seo-kyeong and Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave

5. James Gray, Armageddon Time
   —

6. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once

7. Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness

8. Billy Eichner and Nicholas Stoller, Bros

9. Todd Field, TÁR

10. Sam Mendes, Empire of Light

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Sarah Polley, Women Talking

2. Noah Baumbach, White Noise

3. Rian Johnson, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

4. Rebecca Lenkiewicz, She Said

5. Kazuo Ishiguro, Living
   —

6. Samuel D. Hunter, The Whale

7. Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller, The Son

8. Ryan Coogler and Joe Robert Cole, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

9. Audrey Diwan, Marcia Romano and Anne Berest, Happening

10. Ian Stokell, Lesley Paterson and Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front