FINAL 2021 Oscar Winner Predictions
We are so close!
Come Sunday, this awards season, a largely exasperating endeavor that has sported some marvelous movies but not always brought out the best in film fans, will come to a close.
As we reach a conclusion, many categories appear all but completely sewn up, including a trio of acting awards, handful of technical prizes and honors for directing, where no one has surfaced to pose a real threat to Jane Campion.
There does, however, remain a fair share of suspense, including in the top category, where SAG, PGA and WGA victories have catapulted CODA (for the record, my favorite film of the year) from underdog to potential winner. Without a doubt, it has surged at precisely the right time, sporting momentum just as voters are taking to their ballots. The question remains, however - can CODA, with its mere trio of nominations, really take down 12-time nominee The Power of the Dog?
It’s a plenty plausible outcome, especially with the curveball of a preferential ballot. But it remains unclear whether voters in the craft categories, who are clearly fond of The Power of the Dog, are all that taken with CODA. (Pre-PGA, I suspected Belfast, which did muster a healthy spread of Oscar noms, would prove the greatest threat.) They may be - and it’s not as if films devoid of technical nominations are instantly doomed in Best Picture.
But much as I’d love to predict CODA, I cannot get past The Power of the Dog’s haul on nominations morning. If it may not rack up much in the way of wins, we have unimpeachable evidence, through these noms, that broad support exists for the Campion picture.
Then there’s the Best Actress situation, where Jessica Chastain, with SAG and Critics’ Choice wins, now looks like the one to beat. No doubt, she is very well-positioned, especially as the category’s lone nominee without an Oscar win.
Chastain is not, however, a shoo-in on the level of Will Smith, Ariana DeBose and Troy Kotsur. Her film was neither a critical nor commercial hit and her competition, with the possible exception of Nicole Kidman, has fiercely passionate supporters. It’s just not terribly clear who the alternative to Chastain would be. It may just be Olivia Colman, who has scored a Best Actress upset before and whose film has a tad more AMPAS support than Chastain’s. Had The Lost Daughter made it into Best Picture, I’d likely be predicting her here.
Both screenwriting categories remain unsettled, made all the more chaotic by WGA inexplicably going for Don’t Look Up. At this point, Belfast’s one remaining hope likely lies in that category, Best Original Screenplay. If CODA scores Best Adapted Screenplay, expect it to go all the way in Best Picture. I suppose it could still take top honors without it…but not terribly likely.
Down the ballot, keep an eye on Flee in its trio of categories, all of which it’s tragically poised to finish 2nd or 3rd in. The shorts seem to have modest front-runners this year but are always ripe for upsets.
In the craft categories, suspense remains in several fields, including Best Cinematography, Best Film Editing, Best Original Score, Best Original Song and Best Production Design. If The Power of the Dog can muster anything in the technical races, take that as an exceedingly strong sign that it’s prevailing in Picture. It’s also down the ballot where surprise Best Picture nominee Nightmare Alley may have a prayer to score a trophy or two.
So, that’s that. Let’s get to it - below are my final Oscar winner predictions, ranked from most to least likely to win. Fingers crossed we’re in for a ceremony that isn’t an awe-inspiring trainwreck - and that discourse among film fans post-ceremony is a little more civil than it’s all too proven pre-Oscars.
Good luck! :)
Best Picture
The Power of the Dog
CODA
Belfast
King Richard
West Side Story
Dune
Licorice Pizza
Don’t Look Up
Drive My Car
Nightmare Alley
Best Director
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car
Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
Best Actress
Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
Kristen Stewart, Spencer
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Best Actor
Will Smith, King Richard
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Andrew Garfield, tick, tick... BOOM!
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos
Best Supporting Actress
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
Judi Dench, Belfast
Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter
Best Supporting Actor
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
Ciarán Hinds, Belfast
Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog
J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos
Best Original Screenplay
Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
Adam McKay and David Sirota, Don’t Look Up
Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier, The Worst Person in the World
Zach Baylin, King Richard
Best Adapted Screenplay
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Sian Heder, CODA
Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Lost Daughter
Ryusuke Hamaguchi and Takamasa Oe, Drive My Car
Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve and Eric Roth, Dune
Best Animated Feature
Encanto
The Mitchells vs. The Machines
Flee
Luca
Raya and the Last Dragon
Best Animated Short Film
Robin Robin
Affairs of the Art
The Windshield Wiper
Bestia
BoxBallet
Best Documentary Feature
Summer of Soul (...Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)
Flee
Writing with Fire
Attica
Ascension
Best Documentary Short Subject
The Queen of Basketball
Audible
Lead Me Home
Three Songs for Benazir
When We Were Bullies
Best International Feature
Drive My Car (Japan)
The Worst Person in the World (Norway)
Flee (Denmark)
The Hand of God (Italy)
Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom (Bhutan)
Best Live Action Short Film
The Long Goodbye
Ala Kachuu - Take and Run
On My Mind
The Dress
Please Hold
Best Cinematography
Greig Fraser, Dune
Ari Wegner, The Power of the Dog
Dan Laustsen, Nightmare Alley
Janusz Kamiński, West Side Story
Bruno Delbonnel, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Best Costume Design
Jenny Beavan, Cruella
Jacqueline West and Robert Morgan, Dune
Paul Tazewell, West Side Story
Luis Sequeira, Nightmare Alley
Massimo Cantini Parrini and Jacqueline Durran, Cyrano
Best Film Editing
Joe Walker, Dune
Pamela Martin, King Richard
Peter Sciberras, The Power of the Dog
Myron Kerstein and Andrew Weisblum, tick, tick... BOOM!
Hank Corwin, Don’t Look Up
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram and Justin Raleigh, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Nadia Stacey, Naomi Donne and Julia Vernon, Cruella
Mike Marino, Stacey Morris and Carla Farmer, Coming 2 America
Göran Lundström, Anna Carin Lock and Frederic Aspiras, House of Gucci
Donald Mowat, Love Larson and Eva von Bahr, Dune
Best Original Score
Hans Zimmer, Dune
Jonny Greenwood, The Power of the Dog
Germaine Franco, Encanto
Nicholas Britell, Don’t Look Up
Alberto Iglesias, Parallel Mothers
Best Original Song
“No Time to Die,” No Time to Die
"Dos Oruguitas,” Encanto
“Be Alive,” King Richard
“Down to Joy,” Belfast
“Somehow You Do,” Four Good Days
Best Production Design
Tamara Deverell and Shane Vieau, Nightmare Alley
Patrice Vermette and Zsuzsanna Sipos, Dune
Stefan Dechant and Nancy Haigh, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Adam Stockhausen and: Rena DeAngelo, West Side Story
Grant Major and Amber Richards, The Power of the Dog
Best Sound
Mac Ruth, Mark Mangini, Theo Green, Doug Hemphill and Ron Bartlett, Dune
Simon Hayes, Oliver Tarney, James Harrison, Paul Massey and Mark Taylor, No Time to Die
Tod A. Maitland, Gary Rydstrom, Brian Chumney, Andy Nelson and Shawn Murphy, West Side Story
Richard Flynn, Robert Mackenzie and Tara Webb, The Power of the Dog
Denise Yarde, Simon Chase, James Mather and Niv Adiri, Belfast
Best Visual Effects
Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor and Gerd Nefzer, Dune
Kelly Port, Chris Waegner, Scott Edelstein and Dan Sudick, Spider-Man: No Way Home
Charlie Noble, Joel Green, Jonathan Fawkner and Chris Corbould, No Time to Die
Swen Gillberg, Bryan Grill, Nikos Kalaitzidis and Dan Sudick, Free Guy
Christopher Townsend, Joe Farrell, Sean Noel Walker and Dan Oliver, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings