FINAL 2025 Oscar Winner Predictions

At last!

With Oscar night right around the corner, these half dozen categories are most stumping me:

Best Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Best Cinematography
Best Costume Design
Best Animated Short
Best Live Action Short

Indeed, I’m not buying Sinners as that formidable a threat in Best Picture or Best Director. Nonetheless, I have come to the point where I see the film scoring six Oscars in total, including Best Actor and Best Supporting Actress, albeit narrowly in those two races.

On the heels of his losses at both BAFTA and SAG, it’s a stretch to still label Timothée Chalamet the Oscar front-runner. The last loser of these prizes to triumph at the Oscars was Sean Penn, who, 22 years ago, fell short to Bill Murray at BAFTA and Johnny Depp at SAG, only to pull off the upset with AMPAS for Mystic River.

That isn’t to say SAG winner Michael B. Jordan is an overwhelming favorite. After all, Chalamet prevailed at SAG last year, only to still lose to Brody at the Oscars. We’ve reached a point, however, where the buzz around 0-for-11 BAFTA loser Marty Supreme has so dampened that I wonder if Drama Golden Globe winner Wagner Moura may too have an edge over the former category favorite. It’s tough to actually predict Moura, given his snubs at both SAG and BAFTA, but the Best Picture nom for The Secret Agent rings as a testament to how much AMPAS admires his picture.

In short, odds are Jordan has surged at precisely the right time but neither Moura nor Chalamet can be counted out.

In Supporting Actress, I am wholeheartedly rooting for icon/legend/SAG winner Amy Madigan to triumph but my gut says BAFTA winner Wunmi Mosaku has the edge.

For one, AMPAS doesn’t seem overly keen on Weapons, with the film earning no nominations beyond this category. There is precedent for performers winning Supporting Actress as the lone nominee from their film but it’s rare, with eight total instances (including, most recently, Penélope Cruz for Vicky Cristina Barcelona in 2008). Moreover, in recent years, BAFTA has emerged as a more reliable precursor than SAG in forecasting Oscar winners. We’ve seen veteran actresses, including Demi Moore, Glenn Close and Julie Christie, prevail with SAG, only to come up short with AMPAS. It’s easy to picture Madigan following their lead.

Teyana Taylor remains a contender, especially if One Battle After Another simply steamrolls, but any past front-runner status has dissipated.

Among the craft categories, I’m most torn on Costume Design and Cinematography.

In the former, Frankenstein has seemingly emerged as a consensus among prognosticators, but I’m inclined to think Sinners can pull the upset, both because of its overall momentum and industry fondness for nominee Ruth E. Carter, who triumphed on her most recent two nominations. In the latter, Sinners seems to be surging (and One Battle After Another could take it too if it has an especially hot night) but I suspect Train Dreams, despite waning buzz, has just enough juice to hang on and score what would be its lone win of the night. If it does so, it’ll mark the first Cinematography winner without any other Oscar wins since Road to Perdition.

I am also, as is often the case, at a loss with several of the shorts. (Last year, I ranked I’m Not a Robot fifth to win Best Live Action Short and, of course, it triumphed!) I suspect any of the Animated Short nominees could prevail. Over in Live Action Short, my heart and soul are with the delightful A Friend of Dorothy but I suspect that race will instead be a barn burner between The Singers and the ambitious, unforgettable Two People Exchanging Saliva.

All things considered, I’m far more excited about this One Battle After Another/Sinners-dominated Oscar race than last year’s Anora/The Brutalist/Conclave battle. The prospect of Magidan or Mosaku taking Supporting Actress (both would be among the all-time great category winners) alone is getting me so pumped!

Best Picture

1. One Battle After Another

2. Sinners

3. Hamnet

4. Marty Supreme

5. Sentimental Value

6. The Secret Agent

7. Frankenstein

8. F1

9. Train Dreams

10. Bugonia

Best Director

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another

2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners

3. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet

4. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value

5. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme

Best Actress

1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

2. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

3. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value

4. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue

5. Emma Stone, Bugonia

Best Actor

1. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners

2. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent

3. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme

4. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon

5. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another

Best Supporting Actress

1. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners

2. Amy Madigan, Weapons

3. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

4. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value

5. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value

Best Supporting Actor

1. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another

2. Delroy Lindo, Sinners

3. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value

4. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein

5. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another

Best Original Screenplay

1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners

2. Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt, Sentimental Value

3. Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme

4. Jafar Panahi, Nader Saeivar, Shadmehr Rastin and Mehdi Mahmoudian, It Was Just an Accident

5. Robert Kaplow, Blue Moon

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another

2. Maggie O’Farrell and Chloe Zhao, Hamnet

3. Will Tracy, Bugonia

4. Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar, Train Dreams

5. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein

Best Animated Feature

1. KPop Demon Hunters

2. Zootopia 2

3. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain

4. Arco

5. Elio

Best Animated Short

1. The Girl Who Cried Pearls

2. Butterfly

3. Forevergreen

4. Retirement Plan

5. The Three Sisters

Best Documentary Feature

1. The Perfect Neighbor

2. The Alabama Solution

3. Mr. Nobody Against Putin

4. Come See Me in the Good Light

5. Cutting Through Rocks

Best Documentary Short

1. All the Empty Rooms

2. The Devil Is Busy

3. Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud

4. Children No More: "Were and Are Gone"

5. Perfectly a Strangeness

Best Live Action Short

1. The Singers

2. Two People Exchanging Saliva

3. Butcher’s Stain

4. Jane Austen’s Period Drama

5. A Friend of Dorothy

Best International Feature

1. Sentimental Value (Norway)

2. The Secret Agent (Brazil)

3. Sirāt (Spain)

4. It Was Just an Accident (France)

5. The Voice of Hind Rajab (Tunisia)

Best Casting

1. Francine Maisler, Sinners

2. Cassandra Kulukundis, One Battle After Another

3. Gabriel Domingues, The Secret Agent

4. Nina Gold, Hamnet

5. Jennifer Venditti, Marty Supreme

Best Cinematography

1. Adolfo Veloso, Train Dreams

2. Autumn Durald Arkapaw, Sinners

3. Dan Laustsen, Frankenstein

4. Michael Bauman, One Battle After Another

5. Darius Khondji, Marty Supreme

Best Costume Design

1. Ruth E. Carter, Sinners

2. Kate Hawley, Frankenstein

3. Malgosia Turzanska, Hamnet

4. Miyako Bellizzi, Marty Supreme

5. Deborah L. Scott, Avatar: Fire and Ash

Best Film Editing

1. Stephen Mirrione, F1

2. Andy Jurgensen, One Battle After Another

3. Michael P. Shawver, Sinners

4. Olivier Bugge Coutté, Sentimental Value

5. Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Mike Hill, Cliona Furey and Jordan Samuel, Frankenstein

2. Ken Diaz, Mike Fontaine and Shunika Terry, Sinners

3. Anne Catherine Sauerberg and Thomas Foldberg, The Ugly Stepsister

4. Kyoko Toyokawa, Naomi Hibino and Tadashi Nishimatsu, Kokuho

5. Kazu Hiro, Glen Griffin and Bjoern Rehbein, The Smashing Machine

Best Original Score

1. Ludwig Göransson, Sinners

2. Jonny Greenwood, One Battle After Another

3. Alexandre Desplat, Frankenstein

4. Max Richter, Hamnet

5. Jerskin Fendrix, Bugonia

Best Original Song

1. “Golden,” KPop Demon Hunters

2. “I Lied to You,” Sinners

3. “Dear Me,” Diane Warren: Relentless

4. “Train Dreams,” Train Dreams

5. “Sweet Dreams of Joy,” Viva Verdi!

Best Production Design

1. Tamara Deverell and Shane Vieau, Frankenstein

2. Hannah Beachler and Monique Champagne, Sinners

3. Jack Fisk and Adam Willis, Marty Supreme

4. Florencia Martin and Anthony Carlino, One Battle After Another

5. Fiona Crombie and Alice Felton, Hamnet

Best Sound

1. Gareth John, Al Nelson, Juan Peralta, Gary A. Rizzo and Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, F1

2. Jose Antonio Garcia, Christopher Scarabosio and Tony Villaflor, One Battle After Another

3. Steve Boeddeker, Benny Burtt, David V. Butler, Felipe Pacheco, Brandon Proctor and Chris Welcker, Sinners

4. Laia Casanovas, Yasmina Praderas and Amanda Villavieja, Sirât

5. Greg Chapman, Christian Cooke, Nelson Ferreira, Nathan Robitaile and Brad Zoern, Frankenstein

Best Visual Effects

1. Richard Baneham, Daniel Barrett, Eric Saindon and Joe Letteri, Avatar: Fire and Ash

2. Nicolas Chevalier, Robert Harrington, Keith Alfred Dawson and Ryan Tudhope, F1

3. Donnie Dean, Espen Nordhal, Michael Ralla and Guido Wolter, Sinners

4. Charlie Noble, David Zaretti, Russell Bowen, and Brandon K. McLaughlin, The Lost Bus

5. Stephen Aplin, Charmaine Chan, Neil Corbould and David Vickery, Jurassic World Rebirth

2025 SAG Actor Awards Winner Predictions

Best Motion Picture Ensemble

1. Sinners

2. One Battle After Another

3. Hamnet

4. Marty Supreme

5. Frankenstein

One Battle After Another may be the commanding Best Picture favorite but Sinners should have an edge for top honors at SAG. The Miles Caton nomination is a testament to how much voters love it. OBAA cannot be entirely counted out, though, and if it does win, the Best Picture Oscar race is all but over.

Best Female Actor in a Leading Role

1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

2. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

3. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue

4. Emma Stone, Bugonia

5. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another

SAG has a tendency to honor leading ladies who don’t go on to win the Oscar, with roughly one-third (10 out of 31) of their Lead Actress winners falling short with AMPAS. Hence, there is perhaps some reason to believe Byrne or even Hudson could score the upset but Buckley rings of too strong a front-runner to overtake. Had Hamnet underperformed here, say by missing in Best Ensemble, I may have entertained a Byrne prediction.

Best Male Actor in a Leading Role

1. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners

2. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme

3. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon

4. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another

5. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia

Yeah, I’m gonna go there. Odds are I’m lending too much weight to Marty Supreme’s 0-for-11 BAFTA shutout and/or the Safdie Brothers controversy and/or the fact that Chamalet just prevailed here last year (and no one has ever scored consecutive SAG film wins in the same category) but this race strikes me as ripe for an upset, even if Chamalet remains the Oscar favorite. If anyone can pull this off, I suspect it’s Jordan, adored by his peers and headlining the likely Best Ensemble winner. For a time, I thought Hawke could prove a SAG threat but the momentum just isn’t there.

Best Female Actor in a Supporting Role

1. Amy Madigan, Weapons

2. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners

3. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

4. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good

5. Odessa A'zion, Marty Supreme

Idk! It won’t be A’zion or Grande but, beyond that, this is a very tough race to project. Post-Golden Globes/pre-BAFTA, my hunch was Taylor would simply steamroll through to the Oscars, likely marking OBAA’s lone acting win. Now, with Mosaku triumphing at BAFTA, this rings of a three-way barn burner and I’m back to my earlier inclination that Madigan, who has worked with countless actors in her more than four-decade career, probably has the edge at SAG.

It’s a win that would make perfect sense, given SAG’s penchant for honoring veteran actors, even if AMPAS doesn’t ultimately bite. Weapons has perhaps lost some momentum, as exemplified by Madigan being the film’s lone Oscar nominee, but I still think she can pull SAG off. If Mosaku wins here, she will be very tough to beat for the Oscar. If Taylor triumphs, expect a close finish between her and Mosaku for the Oscar, with Madigan at that point an also-ran.

Best Male Actor in a Supporting Role

1. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another

2. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein

3. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another

4. Miles Caton, Sinners

5. Paul Mescal, Hamnet

OBAA will not go home empty-handed at SAG. Prior to last weekend, my hunch was del Toro may prevail here but now, post-BAFTA, it’s tough to argue against Penn. I wouldn’t, however, count out Elordi, given the seemingly strong support for Best Ensemble nominee Frankenstein, nor would I be stunned if Caton rides a Sinners wave, pulling an Emily Blunt/Idris Elba (SAG win without an Oscar nom).

Best Motion Picture Stunt Ensemble

1. F1

2. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning

3. Sinners

4. One Battle After Another

5. Frankenstein

I’m seeing the bulk of predictions go for Mission: Impossible and this makes sense, given Dead Reckoning Part One’s victory two years back. It should be noted, however, that such marked the franchise’s first SAG victory, with Fallout and Rogue Nation earlier falling short. My gut says F1, which has seen a remarkably robust awards season run, actually takes this. Highly unlikely would be any of the other three. Since this category’s inception in 2007, Black Panther remains the lone SAG Best Ensemble nominee to win Best Stunt Ensemble.

FINAL 2025 Oscar Nomination Predictions

Here we go…

Final Oscar nom predictions for the season! Per usual, my rankings highlight how many slots a contender has moved up or down since my last set of hunches.

If there is a dominant headline, it has to be that Sinners is so close to shattering the all-time nominations record. With 14, the number I suspect it ultimately nets, it ties the record but I have it sixth in both Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress, ditto Original Song (for a second bid there). Any one of those will send it over the top. (Odd as it sounds, I fear the most vulnerable of those 14 may be Lead Actor, where Michael B. Jordan, Joel Edgerton and perhaps Jesse Plemons are competitive for the fifth spot.)

Best Picture

1. One Battle After Another (-)

2. Hamnet (-)

3. Sinners (+1)

4. Marty Supreme (-1)

5. Frankenstein (+3)

6. Sentimental Value (-)

7. The Secret Agent (-)

8. Bugonia (+6)

9. It Was Just an Accident (-4)

10. Train Dreams (-1)
    —

11. Weapons (-)

12. F1 (NEW)

13. Sirāt (-)

14. Wicked: For Good (-2)

15. Song Sung Blue (NEW)

DROPPED
No Other Choice (-6)
Jay Kelly (-1)

Best Director

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (-)

2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (+4)

3. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (-1)

4. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (-)

5. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (-)
   —

6. Jafar Panah, It Was Just an Accident (-3)

7. Kleber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (-)

8. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (-)

9. Oliver Laxe, Sirāt (+1)

10. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (NEW)

DROPPED
Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (-1)

Best Actress

1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (-)

2. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (-)

3. Emma Stone, Bugonia (+1)

4. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (-1)

5. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (+2)
   —

6. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (-1)

7. Jennifer Lawrence, Die My Love (+2)

8. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (-2)

9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (+1)

10. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (-2)

Best Actor

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (+1)

2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (-1)

3. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (-)

4. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (-)

5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (+1)
   —

6. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams (-1)

7. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (NEW)

8. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (-1)

9. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein (+1)

10. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (-2)

DROPPED
Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (-2)

Best Supporting Actress

1. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (-)

2. Amy Madigan, Weapons (-)

3. Odessa A'zion, Marty Supreme (+1)

4. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value (+1)

5. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (-2)
   —

6. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (+1)

7. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (-1)

8. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (+2)

9. Emily Watson, Hamnet (NEW)

10. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (-2)

DROPPED
Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (-2)

Best Supporting Actor

1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (+1)

2. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (+3)

3. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (-)

4. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (-3)

5. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (-1)
   —

6. Miles Caton, Sinners (NEW)

7. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (+2)

8. Andrew Scott, Blue Moon (-2)

9. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (-1)

10. William H. Macy, Train Dreams (-3)

DROPPED
Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (-1)

Best Original Screenplay

1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (+3)

2. Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (-1)

3. Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt, Sentimental Value (-1)

4. Jafar Panahi, Nader Saeivar, Shadmehr Rastin and Mehdi Mahmoudian, It Was Just an Accident (-1)

5. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (+3)
   —

6. Kleber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (-1)

7. Robert Kaplow, Blue Moon (-)

8. Zach Cregger, Weapons (+1)

9. Mary Bronstein, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (+1)

10. Noah Baumbach and Emily Mortimer, Jay Kelly (-4)

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (-)

2. Maggie O’Farrell and Chloe Zhao, Hamnet (-)

3. Will Tracy, Bugonia (+3)

4. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (-)

5. Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar, Train Dreams (-)
   —

6. Lee Ja-hye, Lee Kyoung-mi, Park Chan-wook and Don McKellar, No Other Choice (-3)

7. Rian Johnson, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (-)

8. Craig Brewer, Song Sung Blue (-)

9. James Vanderbilt, Nuremberg (-)

10. Nia DaCosta, Hedda (-)

Best Animated Feature

1. KPop Demon Hunters (-)

2. Zootopia 2 (-)

3. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (-)

4. Arco (-)

5. Elio (-)
   —

6. Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle (NEW)

7. In Your Dreams (-)

8. Scarlet (-)

9. A Magnificent Life (-)

10. The Bad Guys 2 (NEW)

DROPPED
Ne Zha 2 (-5)
The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants (-1)

Best Animated Short

1. Éiru (-)

2. The Girl Who Cried Pearls (-)

3. The Shyness of Trees (-)

4. Snow Bear (-)

5. The Night Boots (-)
   —

6. Hurikán (-)

7. The Three Sisters (-)

8. Butterfly (Papillon) (-)

9. The Quinta’s Ghost (-)

10. I Died in Irpin (-)

Best Documentary Feature

1. The Perfect Neighbor (-)

2. Come See Me in the Good Light (-)

3. 2000 Meters to Andriivka (-)

4. Apocalypse in the Tropics (-)

5. The Alabama Solution (-)
   —

6. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (+1)

7. Cover-Up (+1)

8. My Undesirable Friends: Part 1 – Last Air in Moscow (NEW)

9. Seeds (-3)

10. Folktales (-1)

DROPPED
Mistress Dispeller (-1)

Best Documentary Short

1. Armed Only with a Camera (-)

2. All the Walls Came Down (-)

3. On Healing Land, Birds Perch (-)

4. Rovina’s Choice (-)

5. Bad Hostage (-)
   —

6. Last Days on Lake Trinity (-)

7. Chasing Time (-)

8. Classroom 4 (-)

9. We Were the Scenery (-)

10. Heartbeat (-)

Best Live Action Short

1. Beyond Silence (-)

2. Amarela (-)

3. Rock, Paper, Scissors (-)

4. Ado (-)

5. The Pearl Comb (-)
   —

6. A Friend of Dorothy (-)

7. The Boy with White Skin (-)

8. Dad’s Not Home (-)

9. Butcher’s Stain (-)

10. The Singers (-)

Best International Feature

1. Sentimental Value (Norway) (-)

2. The Secret Agent (Brazil) (+1)

3. It Was Just an Accident (France) (-1)

4. Sirāt (Spain) (+1)

5. Left-Handed Girl (Taiwan) (+1)
   —

6. The Voice of Hind Rajab (Tunisia) (+2)

7. No Other Choice (South Korea) (-3)

8. The President’s Cake (Iraq) (-1)

9. Sound of Falling (Germany) (-)

10. Belén (NEW)

DROPPED
All That’s Left of You (Jordan) (-1)

Best Casting

1. Cassandra Kulukundis, One Battle After Another (-)

2. Francine Maisler, Sinners (-)

3. Jennifer Venditti, Marty Supreme (-)

4. Nina Gold, Hamnet (-)

5. Yngvill Kolset Haga and Avy Kaufman, Sentimental Value (-)
   —

6. Gabriel Domingues, The Secret Agent (-)

7. Robin D. Cook, Frankenstein (+1)

8. Allison Jones, Weapons (-1)

9. Tiffany Little Canfield and Bernard Telsey, Wicked: For Good (-)

10. Nadia Acimi and Luis Bértolo, Sirât (-)

Best Cinematography

1. Autumn Durald Arkapaw, Sinners (-)

2. Dan Laustsen, Frankenstein (-)

3. Michael Bauman, One Battle After Another (-)

4. Lukasz Zal, Hamnet (-)

5. Adolfo Veloso, Train Dreams (+1)
   —

6. Darius Khondji, Marty Supreme (-1)

7. Claudio Miranda, F1 (+1)

8. Robbie Ryan, Bugonia (+1)

9. Mauro Herce, Sirât (-2)

10. Seamus McGarvey, Die My Love (NEW)

DROPPED
David Chambille, Nouvelle Vague (-1)

Best Costume Design

1. Ruth E. Carter, Sinners (-)

2. Kate Hawley, Frankenstein (+1)

3. Paul Tazewell, Wicked: For Good (-1)

4. Miyako Bellizzi, Marty Supreme (-)

5. Malgosia Turzanska, Hamnet (-)
   —

6. Colleen Atwood, One Battle After Another (-)

7. Kumiko Ogawa, Kokuho (-)

8. Lindsay Pugh, Hedda (+1)

9. Malgorzata Karpiuk, The Testament of Ann Lee (-1)

10. Colleen Atwood and Christine L. Cantella, Kiss of the Spider Woman (-)

Best Film Editing

1. Andy Jurgensen, One Battle After Another (-)

2. Michael P. Shawver, Sinners (+1)

3. Ronald Bronstein, Marty Supreme (-1)

4. Stephen Mirrione, F1 (+2)

5. Chloé Zhao and Affonso Gonçalves, Hamnet (-)
   —

6. Evan Schiff, Frankenstein (-2)

7. Cristóbal Fernández, Sirât (+1)

8. Kirk Baxter, A House of Dynamite (NEW)

9. Yorgos Mavropsaridis, Bugonia (NEW)

10. Olivier Bugge Coutté, Sentimental Value (-1)

DROPPED
Amir Etminan, It Was Just an Accident (-4)
James Cameron, Nicolas De Toth, John Refoua, David Brenner and Stephen E. Rivkin, Avatar: Fire and Ash (-1)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Mike Hill, Cliona Furey and Jordan Samuel, Frankenstein (-)

2. Ken Diaz, Mike Fontaine and Shunika Terry, Sinners (+1)

3. Mark Coulier, Frances Hannon and Laura Blount, Wicked: For Good (-1)

4. Kazu Hiro, Glen Griffin and Bjoern Rehbein, The Smashing Machine (-)

5. Kyoko Toyokawa, Naomi Hibino andTadashi Nishimatsu, Kokuho (-)
   —

6. Mike Fontaine, Kay Georgiou and Kyra Pachenko, Marty Supreme (+2)

7. Arjen Tuiten, One Battle After Another (-)

8. Jan Sewell, Renata Gilbert and Sharon Robbins, Nuremberg (-2)

9. Anne Catherine Sauerberg and Thomas Foldberg, The Ugly Stepsister (-)

10. Jerry Popolis, Hiro Yada and Jason Hamer, The Alto Knights (-)

Best Original Score

1. Ludwig Göransson, Sinners (+1)

2. Jonny Greenwood, One Battle After Another (-1)

3. Max Richter, Hamnet (-)

4. Alexandre Desplat, Frankenstein (-)

5. Daniel Lopatin, Marty Supreme (-)
   —

6. Bryce Dessner, Train Dreams (-)

7. Kangding Ray, Sirât (-)

8. Stephen Schwartz and John Powell, Wicked: For Good (-)

9. Jerskin Fendrix, Bugonia (NEW)

10. Hildur Guðnadóttir, Hedda (-)

DROPPED
Nicholas Britell, Jay Kelly (-2)

Best Original Song

1. “Golden,” KPop Demon Hunters (+1)

2. “I Lied to You,” Sinners (+1)

3. “Dear Me,” Diane Warren: Relentless (-2)

4. “The Girl in the Bubble,” Wicked: For Good (-)

5. “Train Dreams,” Train Dreams (+1)
   —

6. “Last Time (I Seen the Sun),” Sinners (-1)

7. “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet,” Come See Me in the Good Light (-)

8. “Drive,” F1 (NEW)

9. “No Place Like Home,” Wicked: For Good (-1)

10. “Highest 2 Lowest,” Highest 2 Lowest (-1)

DROPPED
“Dream as One,” Avatar: Fire and Ash (-1)

Best Production Design

1. Tamara Deverell and Shane Vieau, Frankenstein (-)

2. Hannah Beachler and Monique Champagne, Sinners (-)

3. Jack Fisk and Adam Willis, Marty Supreme (+1)

4. Fiona Crombie and Alice Felton, Hamnet (+1)

5. Nathan Crowley and Lee Sandales, Wicked: For Good (-2)
   —

6. Florencia Martin and Anthony Carlino, One Battle After Another (-)

7. Dylan Cole, Ben Procter and Vanessa Cole, Avatar: Fire and Ash (-)

8. Kasra Farahani and Jille Azis, The Fantastic Four: First Steps (-)

9. Katia Wyszkop, Nouvelle Vague (-)

10. Cara Bower and Stella Fox, Hedda (-)

Best Sound

1. Jose Antonio Garcia, Christopher Scarabosio and Tony Villaflor, One Battle After Another (-)

2. Steve Boeddeker, Benny Burtt, David V. Butler, Felipe Pacheco, Brandon Proctor and Chris Welcker, Sinners (-)

3. Greg Chapman, Christian Cooke, Nelson Ferreira, Nathan Robitaile and Brad Zoern, Frankenstein (-)

4. Gareth John, Al Nelson, Juan Peralta, Gary A. Rizzo and Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, F1 (+1)

5. Jack Dolman, Simon Hayes, John Marquis, Andy Nelson and Nancy Nugent Title, Wicked: For Good (+1)
   —

6. Chris Burdon, Lloyd Dudley, James H. Mather, Mark Taylor and Cécile Tournesac, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (+2)

7. Laia Casanovas, Yasmina Praderas and Amanda Villavieja, Sirât (-)

8. Brent Burge, Alexis Feodoroff, Michael Hedges, Julian Howarth and Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Avatar: Fire and Ash (-4)

9. Lance Acord, Chris Boyes, Tim LeBlanc, Lee Orloff and Katy Wood, Superman (+1)

10. David Giammarco, Tod A. Maitland, Paul Massey and Eric A. Norris, Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere (-1)

Best Visual Effects

1. Richard Baneham, Daniel Barrett, Eric Saindon and Joe Letteri, Avatar: Fire and Ash (-)

2. Dennis Berardi, Ayo Burgess, Ivan Busquets and Jose Granell, Frankenstein (-)

3. Donnie Dean, Espen Nordhal, Michael Ralla and Guido Wolter, Sinners (-)

4. Nicolas Chevalier, Robert Harrington, Keith Alfred Dawson and Ryan Tudhope, F1 (+1)

5. Stephane Ceretti, Enrico Damm, Stéphane Nazé and Guy Williams, Superman (+1)
   —

6. Charlie Noble, David Zaretti, Russell Bowen, and Brandon K. McLaughlin, The Lost Bus (+3)

7. Paul Corbould, Jonathan Fawkner, Pablo Helman and Dale Newton, Wicked: For Good (-3)

8. Jeff Capogreco, Vincent Papaix, David Seager and Cameron Waldbauer, Tron: Ares (-1)

9. Stephen Aplin, Charmaine Chan, Neil Corbould and David Vickery, Jurassic World Rebirth (-1)

10. Matthew E. Butler, Russell Earl, Joel Behrens and Elizabeth Bernard, The Electric State (-)

2025 SAG Actor Awards Nomination Predictions

Best Motion Picture Ensemble

1. One Battle After Another

2. Sinners

3. Marty Supreme

4. Hamnet

5. Wicked: For Good
   —

6. Jay Kelly

7. Frankenstein

8. Sentimental Value

9. It Was Just an Accident

10. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

One Battle After Another, Sinners, Marty Supreme and Hamnet should be safe bets to make the cut here - should any miss, it will be a startling gut punch, on the level of The Brutalist’s snub last year.

The suspense likely lies with that final slot. Wicked was so adored with the last SAG awards that Jonathan Bailey, out of nowhere, made the cut for an individual nomination. Surely, that love will lessen this year, given Wicked: For Good’s more lukewarm critical and commercial reception - but will there be just enough affection to still land it an Ensemble nom? I suspect there just might, in part given the lack of a clear alternative.

Jay Kelly, for instance, sports a cast of beloved actors and could see individual SAG noms for both George Clooney and Adam Sandler, but hasn’t exactly proven an awards season juggernaut. Frankenstein has had a more robust presence but not so much in terms of cast recognition - at Critics’ Choice, for instance, it earned 11 noms but couldn’t break into their Casting/Ensemble lineup of six. Some are predicting Sentimental Value but I worry about a slight underperformance with SAG, given their penchant for being lukewarm on international films.

Ultimately, I do go with Wicked: For Good, in part because I also see Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande hanging on for individual SAG noms, even if their Oscar hopes are looking increasingly uncertain.

Best Female Actor in a Leading Role

1. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

2. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

3. Emma Stone, Bugonia

4. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good

5. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another
   —

6. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value

7. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue

8. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt

9. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee

10. Jennifer Lawrence, Die My Love

Where I have confidence in four of the Best Ensemble contenders, I only feel certainty about Byrne and Buckley in Best Female Actor in a Leading Role.

After all, this is a category where we’ve seen the likes of Pamela Anderson, Jennifer Hudson and Amy Adams surface in recent years. We could be in for comparable curveballs, like Roberts making the cut, despite After the Hunt’s collapse as an awards season contender, or Hudson emerging, given the positive audience reception to Song Sung Blue.

In the end, I think Stone makes it here - Bugonia may be divisive but it’s also widely seen (more so than say, The Testament of Ann Lee) and often, earlier releases will fare well here (SAG nominee Judi Dench in Victoria & Abdul, for instance, comes to mind). If, as I suspect, Wicked: For Good cracks Best Ensemble, there is a good chance Erivo follows suit with an individual nom. That leaves Infiniti and Reinsve and again, I fear (hopefully, wrongfully so) Sentimental Value may not resonate quite as much with SAG as it has critics’ organizations.

Best Male Actor in a Leading Role

1. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another

2. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme

3. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon

4. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners

5. George Clooney, Jay Kelly
   —

6. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

7. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams

8. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent

9. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein

10. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine

Much like with the top prize, this rings of a race with four reasonably sure bets and a doubtful jump ball for the final slot. With AMPAS, I suspect Moura, on the heels of a likely Golden Globe win and all of the buzz generated from that, will make the final five. Here, I’m inclined to give the edge to Clooney, though could also fathom White making the cut, ala Hudson for Respect and Taron Egerton for Rocketman. Perhaps Edgerton will land at BAFTA? Sadly, I’m a little skeptical of his odds here.

Best Female Actor in a Supporting Role

1. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

2. Amy Madigan, Weapons

3. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value

4. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good

5. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine
   —

6. Odessa A'zion, Marty Supreme

7. Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

8. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners

9. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value

10. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme

We are blessed to have such a busy Best Supporting Actress race this year! Such, however, makes it hard to confidently make predictions.

I think Taylor and Madigan are reasonably sure bets, but there are so many contenders that I could fathom a Regina King-level snub of either. Despite my hesitation to predict much Sentimental Value at SAG, I do think Fanning scores a nom, while I’m more bearish on Lilleaas. If Erivo’s in, Grande will be too. And if Blunt could land SAG recognition for The Girl on the Train and Mary Poppins Returns and even win for A Quiet Place, I have to think she’s a formidable contender here, even if the performance is polarizing and the film flopped.

That said, any of these 10 could undoubtedly make the cut, as could Regina Hall. SAG has a curious history of recognizing actors whose last names appear early in the alphabet - if that again proves the case, A'zion could have it made in the shade. And Close is such a SAG mainstay, with two wins over 10 career nominations, but can she overcome her film’s middling presence so far this season? I’m not so sure, especially with the first two Knives Out scoring nothing at SAG, though if anyone could, it’s a beloved icon like Close.

Best Male Actor in a Supporting Role

1. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another

2. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another

3. Paul Mescal, Hamnet

4. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value

5. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly
   —

6. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein

7. Delroy Lindo, Sinners

8. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good

9. Miles Caton, Sinners

10. Billy Crudup, Jay Kelly

Like in Best Male Actor in a Leading Role, the suspense here looks to be exclusively around that fifth slot, with Sandler and Elordi closely contending. My feeling is if Sandler could score a SAG nom for Hustle, he can surely do the same for Jay Kelly. On the other hand, at this point, Frankenstein feels more relevant than Jay Kelly in the overall awards season. If Sinners resonates with SAG voters to an even greater extent than anticipated, it could be Lindo or Caton taking that spot. And yes, after his appearance last year, I suppose we shouldn’t completely count out a Bailey return!

2024 Oscar Winner Predictions

These strike me as the toughest categories to crack - races where I’m still wavering and devoid of any real confidence on the outcome:

Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actress
Best Original Screenplay
Best Documentary Feature
Best Film Editing
Best Sound

Conclave and Anora are so close for the top prize that I can’t help but simply split the difference and go with the former in Best Picture (despite its surprising Best Director snub) and latter in Director. I can just as easily fathom Anora taking both or Brady Corbet repeating his BAFTA win. (I don’t, however, have much faith in The Brutalist taking Picture, even if Corbet triumphs).

Best Actress rings of a true barn burner and not necessarily just between Demi Moore and Mikey Madison - with I’m Still Here as a surprise (and plenty deserving) Best Picture nominee, backed by the awards season masters at Sony Pictures Classics, there’s a legitimate case to be made for Fernanda Torres. It’s plausible Moore falls short ala past SAG-winning/BAFTA-losing veterans Julie Christie and Glenn Close but there’s no doubt more passion exists in AMPAS for The Substance than did for the likes of Away from Her and The Wife - and all of her precursor speeches have been knockouts. At the same time, it’s hard to fathom Madison losing if Anora is winning the top prize.

Even with Anora riding high in momentum, Best Original Screenplay looks awfully tight too, especially on the heels of A Real Pain’s BAFTA win. Do actors overwhelmingly vote for Jesse Eisenberg and put him over the top? Had his film scored a Best Picture nom, I’d probably predict him. If he does claim victory, A Real Pain will mark only the second film in Oscar history, after The Usual Suspects, to earn two nominations in total - one for acting, one for writing - and win both.

For much of the season, No Other Land seemed to have the makings of a Best Documentary Feature front-runner but that hasn’t really panned out. Instead, this rings of a race where any of the contenders could triumph.

Among the crafts, Best Film Editing feels the most unsettled. Odds are, its winner will match the Best Picture winner, so Conclave or Anora, though I don’t count Emilia Pérez out, even if it’s done at this point for the top prize. Best Sound is also tough to forecast - Dune: Part Two makes sense, in part because the first entry took this category, but this also presents the best opportunity to throw A Complete Unknown a bone and avoid an 0-for-8 shutout. Wicked has a real shot here too.

Beyond these super suspenseful showdowns - I’m not buying Timothée Chalamet as a truly daunting threat to Adrien Brody in Best Actor (and I predicted Chalamet at SAG). He’s at least, of course, more within striking distance than any of the hopeless competition facing Zoe Saldaña and Kieran Culkin.

Conclave will score Best Adapted Screenplay regardless of how Best Picture goes down. I do have I’m Still Here scoring the upset over Emilia Pérez in Best International Feature Film, though I’m not sure how much of a shock that’ll be at this point, given the former’s Best Picture nom and the latter’s deterioration. The crafts will spread the love but again, may be challenging to avoid a shutout for A Complete Unknown.

As for Best Original Song…I so wish I could predict Diane Warren finally triumphing on her 16th Oscar nom. I can’t quite get there - I still think “El Mal” takes it, in part because it’s a Zoe Saldaña showcase and she’s managed to escape her film’s collapse unscathed. But this is Warren’s best shot since 2015 and, barring a groundswell of love for Elton John, she’s probably in runner-up position.

All that said, here they are - final Oscar predictions, from most to least likely to win:

Best Picture

1. Conclave

2. Anora

3. The Brutalist

4. Wicked

5. The Substance

6. A Complete Unknown

7. I’m Still Here

8. Emilia Pérez

9. Nickel Boys

10. Dune: Part Two

Best Director

1. Sean Baker, Anora

2. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist

3. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance

4. James Mangold, A Complete Unknown

5. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez

Best Actress

1. Demi Moore, The Substance

2. Mikey Madison, Anora

3. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here

4. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked

5. Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez

Best Actor

1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist

2. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown

3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave

4. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing

5. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice

Best Supporting Actress

1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez

2. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave

3. Ariana Grande, Wicked

4. Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown

5. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist

Best Supporting Actor

1. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist

3. Yura Borisov, Anora

4. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown

5. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice

Best Original Screenplay

1. Sean Baker, Anora

2. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain

3. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance

4. Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvold, The Brutalist

5. Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum and Alex David, September 5

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Peter Straughan, Conclave

2. RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes, Nickel Boys

3. Jay Cocks and James Mangold, A Complete Unknown

4. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez

5. Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin and John “Divine G” Whitfield, Sing Sing

Best Animated Feature

1. The Wild Robot

2. Flow

3. Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

4. Memoir of a Snail

5. Inside Out 2

Best Documentary Feature

1. Porcelain War

2. Black Box Diaries

3. No Other Land

4. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat

5. Sugarcane

Best International Feature

1. I’m Still Here (Brazil)

2. Emilia Pérez (France)

3. Flow (Latvia)

4. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Germany)

5. The Girl with the Needle (Denmark)

Best Animated Short

1. Wander to Wonder

2. Yuck!

3. Beautiful Men

4. In the Shadow of the Cypress

5. Magic Candles

Best Documentary Short

1. The Only Girl in the Orchestra

2. I Am Ready, Warden

3. Death by Numbers

4. Incident

5. Instruments of a Beating Heart

Best Live Action Short

1. The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent

2. Anuja

3. A Lien

4. The Last Ranger

5. I’m Not a Robot

Best Cinematography

1. Lol Crawley, The Brutalist

2. Greig Fraser, Dune: Part Two

3. Jarin Blaschke, Nosferatu

4. Edward Lachman, Maria

5. Paul Guilhaume, Emilia Pérez

Best Costume Design

1. Paul Tazewell, Wicked

2. Linda Muir, Nosferatu

3. Lisy Christl, Conclave

4. Arianne Phillips, A Complete Unknown

5. Janty Yates and Dave Crossman, Gladiator II

Best Film Editing

1. Nick Emerson, Conclave

2. Sean Baker, Anora

3. Juliette Welfling, Emilia Pérez

4. Myron Kerstein, Wicked

5. Dávid Jancsóm, The Brutalist

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Pierre-Oliver Persin, Stéphanie Guillon and Marilyne Scarselli, The Substance

2. Frances Hannon, Sarah Nuth and Laura Blount, Wicked

3. Traci Loader, Suzanne Stokes-Munton and David White, Nosferatu

4. Julia Floch Carbonel, Emmanuel Janvier and Jean-Christophe Spadaccini, Emilia Pérez

5. Mike Marino, Sarah Graalman and Aaron Saucier, A Different Man

Best Original Score

1. Daniel Blumberg, The Brutalist

2. Volker Bertelmann, Conclave

3. John Powell and Stephen Schwartz, Wicked

4. Clément Ducol and Camille, Emilia Pérez

5. Kris Bowers, The Wild Robot

Best Original Song

1. “El Mal,” Emilia Pérez

2. “The Journey,” The Six Triple Eight

3. “Never Too Late,” Elton John: Never Too Late

4. “Like a Bird,” Sing Sing

5. "Mi Camino,” Emilia Pérez

Best Production Design

1. Nathan Crowley and Lee Sandales, Wicked

2. Craig Lathrop and Beatrice Brentnerová, Nosferatu

3. Judy Becker and Patricia Cuccia, The Brutalist

4. Suzie Davies and Roberta Federico, Conclave

5. Zsuzsanna Sipos, Shane Vieau and Patrice Vermette, Dune: Part Two

Best Sound

1. Gareth John, Richard King, Ron Bartlett and Doug Hemphill, Dune: Part Two

2. Ted Caplan, Tod Maitland, David Giammarco, Paul Massey and Donald Sylvester, A Complete Unknown

3. Simon Hayes, Nancy Nugent Title, Jack Dolman, Andy Nelson and John Marquis, Wicked

4. Erwan Kerzanet, Aymeric Devoldère, Maxence Dussère, Cyril Holtz and Niels Barletta, Emilia Pérez

5. Randy Thom, Gary A. Rizzo, Leff Lefferts and Brian Chumney, The Wild Robot

Best Visual Effects

1. Paul Lambert, Stephen James, Rhys Salcombe and Gerd Nefzer, Dune: Part Two

2. Pablo Helman, Jonathan Fawkner, Paul Corbould and David Shirk, Wicked

3. Erik Winquist, Stephen Unterfranz, Paul Story and Rodney Burke, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

4. Luke Miller, David Clayton, Keith Herft and Peter Stubbs, Better Man

5. Eric Barba, Nelson Sepulveda-Fauser, Daniel Macarin and Shane Patrick Mahan, Alien: Romulus