At last!
On the heels of an awards season that felt destined to never end, we are finally here. And, with an exception here and there, most categories remain brimming with suspense.
Among the races not so unpredictable at the 11 o'clock hour are Best Picture and Best Director, where PGA winner Everything Everywhere All at Once and DGA honorees Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert appear destined for victories.
That isn’t to say they’re unbeatable but it’s challenging at this point to even determine what/who is closest behind them. This is a contender peaking at precisely the right moment in momentum. Its lone lackluster showing was at BAFTA, where All Quiet on the Western Front was more embraced, but good luck predicting that one for Best Picture without directing or acting bids here. I’m inclined to think The Banshees of Inisherin, which has a Best Director nom and could still cobble together acting/writing wins, is the most formidable threat to Everything Everywhere.
Much more chaotic are the acting showdowns, which remain exceedingly tough to forecast.
If there’s a reasonably easy race to call, it’s Best Supporting Actor, where Ke Huy Quan has maintained a healthy front-runner status. He did fall short to Barry Keoghan at BAFTA, so don’t call Quan a shoo-in, but it would nonetheless be flabbergasting to see him fall short on the big night. Were that to happen, which it almost surely won’t, Everything Everywhere will not be winning Best Picture.
If there’s a dark horse in the field, albeit still a long shot at that, it might be Judd Hirsch, who hasn’t been much a presence this awards season but is still a beloved veteran who’s worked with countless AMPAS members.
As for Best Supporting Actress…hmm lol. I thought for sure Angela Bassett would triumph at SAG, leading to a Bassett vs. Kerry Condon barnburner that probably results in a Condon Oscar win. I did not think voters could decide between the Everything Everywhere contenders and yet, that’s exactly what happened at SAG with the Jamie Lee Curtis upset.
Now, I’m increasingly cool on Bassett’s odds - her big wins were with the Golden Globes and Critics Choice, neither of which vote on the Oscars - and I’m even a little warier on Condon’s chances. Curtis really could ride an Everything Everywhere wave to victory, should it prove powerful enough. Nonetheless, I do slightly lean toward BAFTA winner Condon, as it’s the sort of role that historically is much more up the AMPAS alley (at least when it comes to wins) than the comic work Curtis turns in.
Frankly, in a field this unsettled, the likes of Hsu and Chau cannot be entirely counted out either though, without precursor wins behind them, it’s a little tough articulating cases for them.
No easier to project are the two Lead races, with Austin Butler & Brendan Fraser and Cate Blanchett & Michelle Yeoh deadlocked in their respective fields.
The Whale’s overall underperformance in nominations, coupled with the robust showing of support for Elvis, leans me in Butler’s direction. I struggle a tad more with Best Actress, given both Everything Everywhere and TÁR have such healthy support across the board. It’s been hard to shake the feeling that, despite Everything Everywhere’s incredible awards season run and the focus on Yeoh, Blanchett continues to ring as an undeniable winner. So I’ll stick with her, especially considering AMPAS’ penchant for repeat winners in Best Actress.
Keep a close eye on Best Original Screenplay, a race that will hint at what’s to come over the rest of the night. Should Everything Everywhere triumph there, it’s almost surely going all the way. For the other contenders, namely Banshees and The Fabelmans, it is imperative they score there to have any prayer in Best Picture.
The other writing race, in Best Adapted Screenplay, feels like a pure toss-up between All Quiet on the Western Front and Women Talking. The former needs that and a virtual sweep of its crafts bids to have a shot for the top prize.
Speaking of the crafts categories, what once felt like fertile ground for Top Gun: Maverick now rings as prime opportunities for All Quiet to score wins - in fact, I don’t have Top Gun taking anything in my final predictions, though it’s awfully close in Best Film Editing and Best Sound. Watch Elvis, which could score more trophies than anticipated down the ballot. And yes, Diane Warren will again lose in Best Original Song.
So…that’s that! This is going to be an exceedingly exciting evening and anyone who can somehow correctly predict all of these categories is to be commended. See yas on the other side! :)
Best Picture
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Banshees of Inisherin
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Fabelmans
Elvis
Top Gun: Maverick
TÁR
Triangle of Sadness
Women Talking
Avatar: The Way of Water
Best Director
Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
Todd Field, TÁR
Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness
Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, TÁR
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
Ana de Armas, Blonde
Best Actor
Austin Butler, Elvis
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Paul Mescal, Aftersun
Bill Nighy, Living
Best Supporting Actress
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Hong Chau, The Whale
Best Supporting Actor
Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans
Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway
Best Original Screenplay
Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Todd Field, TÁR
Steven Spielberg and Tony Kushner, The Fabelmans
Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness
Best Adapted Screenplay
Ian Stokell, Lesley Paterson and Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front
Sarah Polley, Women Talking
Ehren Kruger, Eric Warren Singer, Christopher McQuarrie, Top Gun: Maverick
Rian Johnson, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Kazuo Ishiguro, Living
Best Animated Feature
Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
The Sea Beast
Turning Red
Best Animated Short Film
The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse
My Year of Dicks
Ice Merchants
The Flying Sailor
An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It
Best Documentary Feature
Navalny
Fire of Love
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
All That Breathes
A House Made of Splinters
Best Documentary Short Film
The Elephant Whisperers
Stranger at the Gate
Haulout
How Do You Measure a Year?
The Martha Mitchell Effect
Best International Feature
All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)
Argentina, 1985 (Argentina)
The Quiet Girl (Ireland)
EO (Poland)
Close (Belgium)
Best Live Action Short Film
An Irish Goodbye
Le pupille
Night Ride
The Red Suitcase
Ivalu
Best Cinematography
Mandy Walker, Elvis
James Friend, All Quiet on the Western Front
Florian Hoffmeister, TÁR
Darius Khondji, Bardo
Roger Deakins, Empire of Light
Best Costume Design
Ruth E. Carter, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Shirley Kurata, Everything Everywhere All At Once
Catherine Martin, Elvis
Mary Zophres, Babylon
Jenny Beavan, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
Best Film Editing
Paul Rogers, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Eddie Hamilton, Top Gun: Maverick
Matt Villa and Jonathan Redmond, Elvis
Monika Willi, TÁR
Mikkel E.G. Nielsen, The Banshees of Inisherin
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
Shane Thomas, Mark Coulier, Jason Baird and Louise Coulston, Elvis
Adrien Morot, Judy Chin and Anne Marie Bradley, The Whale
Heike Merker, All Quiet on the Western Front
Joel Harlow, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Naomi Donne, Mike Marino and Zoe Tahir, The Batman
Best Original Score
Volker Bertelmann, All Quiet on the Western Front
Son Lux, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Justin Hurwitz, Babylon
John Williams, The Fabelmans
Carter Burwell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Best Original Song
“Naatu Naatu,” RRR
“This Is a Life,” Everything Everywhere All at Once
“Hold My Hand,” Top Gun: Maverick
“Lift Me Up,” Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
“Applause,” Tell It Like a Woman
Best Production Design
Catherine Martin, Karen Murphy and Bev Dunn, Elvis
Florencia Martin and Anthony Carlino, Babylon
Christian M. Goldbeck, All Quiet on the Western Front
Dylan Cole, Ben Procter and Vanessa Cole, Avatar: The Way of Water
Rick Carter and Karen O’Hara, The Fabelmans
Best Sound
Lars Ginzel, Frank Kruse, Markus Stemler and Viktor Prášil, All Quiet on the Western Front
Mark Weingarten, James H. Mather, Al Nelson, Chris Burdon and Mark Taylor, Top Gun: Maverick
David Lee, Wayne Pashley, Andy Nelson and Michael Keller, Elvis
Gwen Whittle, Gary Summers, Mike Hedges, Chris Boyes, Tony Johnson and Julian Howarth, Avatar: The Way of Water
Stuart Wilson, William Files, Douglas Murray, Andy Nelson and William Files, The Batman
Best Visual Effects
Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon and Daniel Barrett, Avatar: The Way of Water
Markus Frank, Viktor Muller, Frank Petzold and Kamil Jafar, All Quiet on the Western Front
Ryan Tudhope, Scott R. Fisher, Seth Hill and Bryan Litson, Top Gun: Maverick
Geoffrey Baumann, Craig Hammack, Hanzhi Tang and Dan Sudick, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Dan Lemmon, Russell Earl, Anders Langland and Dominic Tuoh, The Batman
