FINAL 2019 Oscar Winner Predictions
For the utter lack of excitement present in this year’s acting races - look, I hate to use the l-word but Renee Zellweger, Joaquin Phoenix, Laura Dern and Brad Pitt are as close to legit locks as you’ll get - there remains a great deal of suspense as we enter Oscar night, including, and perhaps most of all, in Best Picture.
Though 1917 seems to be peaking at just the right time with those key BAFTA, PGA and DGA victories, I still see the top showdown as a virtual jump ball among it, Parasite and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, with Jojo Rabbit, which has picked up some guilds steam as of late, and Joker, the nominations leader, not entirely down for the count.
What nudges me in Parasite’s direction is that SAG win - which, I have to admit, I didn’t expect. That victory wholeheartedly makes up for the lack of an acting Oscar nomination and, coupled with essential showings in Film Editing and Production Design here, strikes me as indicative that just enough industry support for the picture exists for it to go all the way, even if it fails to win much down the ballot. (I have Parasite scoring its lone other victory in International Feature.)
Sam Mendes looks to be in solid shape for his second career Oscar - a surprise loss, however, would surely doom 1917 for the top prize. While I can picture a Parasite/Mendes or Once Upon a Time in Hollywood/Mendes split, I cannot see 1917 prevailing in Best Picture without its director triumphing as well. And, should Bong Joon-ho or Quentin Tarantino score the upset in Director, you better believe their film is making it across the finish line up top.
The writing categories remain exciting too, with Adapted Screenplay having three viable candidates in the running (this could be where The Irishman saves itself from a shutout, though I’m inclined not to predict it) and Tarantino in nearly as sturdy a position in Original Screenplay as Mendes is in Director - the front-runner but not an invincible one. A Parasite victory there would likely seal the deal for Picture and Marriage Story, once upon a time a more formidable awards season contender than it ultimately turned out to be, perhaps still has a sliver of a chance.
Further down the ballot, there aren’t many shoo-ins to be found, sans Parasite in International Feature and perhaps Bombshell in Makeup & Hairstyling. Ford v Ferrari, despite being hopeless in Picture, could triumph on its other three nominations, including Film Editing, and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood may flourish or flounder - there really is a possibility, albeit a slight one, that only Pitt walks away with an Oscar for the film.
And let’s not forget what I consider one of the evening’s most wide-open affairs - Original Song.
Elton John initially seemed a sure thing - that is, until Rocketman otherwise flatlined on nominations morning, with the new John tune its lone recognition. Voters also don’t seem terribly keen on Frozen II, which somehow missed in Animated Feature. Randy Newman managed to prevail in this category for an even more forgettable song with Toy Story 3, Cynthia Erivo could EGOT by triumphing with her Harriet song and yes, Diane Warren, the Glenn Close/Thelma Ritter of Original Song, is on her 11th nomination without a win. All circumstances considered, I actually like her chances, even if Breakthrough is…decidedly not an Oscar-caliber production.
All that said, here they are, folks - my final predictions in this exceedingly dizzying awards season…
Best Picture
Parasite
1917
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
The Irishman
Marriage Story
Ford v Ferrari
Best Director
Sam Mendes, 1917
Bong Joon-ho, Parasite
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Todd Phillips, Joker
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Best Actress
Renee Zellweger, Judy
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Best Actor
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Best Supporting Actress
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
Florence Pugh, Little Women
Margot Robbie, Bombshell
Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell
Best Supporting Actor
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
Best Original Screenplay
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Bong Joon-ho and Han Jin-won, Parasite
Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story
Sam Mendes and Krysty Wilson-Cairns, 1917
Rian Johnson, Knives Out
Best Adapted Screenplay
Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit
Greta Gerwig, Little Women
Steven Zaillian, The Irishman
Todd Phillips and Scott Silver, Joker
Anthony McCarten, The Two Popes
Best Animated Feature
Toy Story 4
Missing Link
Klaus
I Lost My Body
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
Best Documentary Feature
American Factory
Honeyland
For Sama
The Edge of Democracy
The Cave
Best International Feature
Parasite (South Korea)
Pain and Glory (Spain)
Honeyland (North Macedonia)
Les Miserables (France)
Corpus Christi (Poland)
Best Animated Short Film
Memorable
Hair Love
Kitbull
Daughter
Sister
Best Documentary Short Subject
St. Louis Superman
Walk Run Cha-Cha
Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You're a Girl)
Life Overtakes Me
In the Absence
Best Live Action Short Film
The Neighbors’ Window
Brotherhood
Saria
Nefta Football Club
A Sister
Best Cinematography
Roger Deakins, 1917
Robert Richardson, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Rodrigo Prieto, The Irishman
Jarin Blaschke, The Lighthouse
Lawrence Sher, Joker
Best Costume Design
Arianne Phillips, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Mayes C. Rubeo, Jojo Rabbit
Jacqueline Durran, Little Women
Sandy Powell and Christopher Peterson, The Irishman
Mark Bridges, Joker
Best Film Editing
Andrew Buckland and Michael McCusker, Ford v Ferrari
Yang Jin-mo, Parasite
Thelma Schoonmaker, The Irishman
Jeff Groth, Joker
Tom Eagles, Jojo Rabbit
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
Kazu Hiro, Anne Morgan, and Vivian Baker, Bombshell
Jeremy Woodhead, Judy
Nicki Ledermann and Kay Georgiou, Joker
Paul Gooch, Arjen Tuiten, and David White, Maleficent: Mistress of Evil
Naomi Donne, Tristan Versluis, and Rebecca Cole, 1917
Best Original Score
Hildur Guðnadóttir, Joker
Thomas Newman, 1917
John Williams, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Alexandre Desplat, Little Women
Randy Newman, Marriage Story
Best Original Song
“I’m Standing with You,” Breakthrough
“(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again,” Rocketman
“I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away,” Toy Story 4
“Stand Up,” Harriet
“Into the Unknown,” Frozen II
Best Production Design
Barbara Ling and Nancy Haigh, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Dennis Gassner and Lee Sandales, 1917
Lee Ha-jun and Cho Won-woo, Parasite
Ra Vincent and Nora Sopková, Jojo Rabbit
Bob Shaw and Regina Graves, The Irishman
Best Sound Editing
Donald Sylvester, Ford v Ferrari
Oliver Tarney and Rachael Tate, 1917
Alan Robert Murray, Joker
Wylie Stateman, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Matthew Wood and David Acord, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Best Sound Mixing
Mark Taylor and Stuart Wilson, 1917
Paul Massey, David Giammarco, and Steven A. Morrow, Ford v Ferrari
Tom Ozanich, Dean Zupancic and Tod Maitland, Joker
Michael Minkler, Christian P. Minkler, and Mark Ulano, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Gary Rydstrom, Tom Johnson and Mark Ulano, Ad Astra
Best Visual Effects
Guillaume Rocheron, Greg Butler, and Dominic Tuohy, 1917
Dan DeLeeuw, Matt Aitken, Russell Earl, and Dan Sudick, Avengers: Endgame
Pablo Helman, Leandro Estebecorena, Stephane Grabli, and Nelson Sepulveda, The Irishman
Robert Legato, Adam Valdez, Andrew R. Jones, and Elliot Newman, The Lion King
Roger Guyett, Neal Scanlan, Patrick Tubach, and Dominic Tuohy, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker