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Among this year’s acting contenders, Renee Zellweger (Judy) is the closest thing to a sure bet.

Among this year’s acting contenders, Renee Zellweger (Judy) is the closest thing to a sure bet.

2019 Oscar Nomination Predictions (October)

October 07, 2019 by Andrew Carden in Oscars

The past month has not exactly produced much in the way of awards season game-changers.

Through the New York Film Festival, we finally scored a glimpse of Martin Scorsese’s The Irishman, which indeed appears poised for the lauds and Oscar lovin’ we suspected all along. Two contenders for Best Actor and Best Actress, Joker’s Joaquin Phoenix and Judy’s Renee Zellweger, saw their pictures score significant commercial success and more modest critical receptions. And Clint Eastwood has yet again snuck up on us with an 11 o’clock-hour release, this time in the form of Richard Jewell (which doesn’t look terribly fetching to me but then again, I’ll watch anything with the goddess that is Kathy Bates.)

…and isn’t that about it?

The uncertainty that last month lingered, with the exception of The Irishman, continues to hover over this Oscar race. Question marks remain around at least five contenders - 1917, Bombshell, Cats, Dark Waters and Little Women - all of which could be Best Picture nominees…or go absolutely nowhere. I would think 1917 is a sure bet for at least some affection in the tech fields, and Bombshell reeks of The Big Short and Vice, both of which the Academy ate up, but nothing is set in stone at this point.

With that said, here is my updated set of Oscar predictions for the month of October. In parentheses you’ll find how many slots a contender has moved up or down since my last rankings. In some (albeit not many) cases, I have dropped a film or performer entirely. I am still holding off on predictions in the shorts, ditto Best Original Song, but am taking my first stab at Best International Feature…

Best Picture

  1. Marriage Story (-)

  2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (-)

  3. The Irishman (-)

  4. 1917 (-)

  5. Ford v. Ferrari (+2)

  6. Bombshell (+3)

  7. Waves (-2)

  8. The Farewell (-2)

  9. Little Women (-1)
    —

  10. The Two Popes (-)

  11. The Report (+1)

  12. Parasite (NEW)

  13. Dolemite Is My Name (+1)

  14. Dark Waters (-3)

  15. Cats (-2)

DROPPED
Just Mercy (-1)

Best Director

  1. Martin Scorsese, The Irishman (-)

  2. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (-)

  3. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story (-)

  4. Sam Mendes, 1917 (-)

  5. Pedro Almodovar, Pain and Glory (-)
    —

  6. Joon-Ho Bong, Parasite (-)

  7. Jay Roach, Bombshell (+2)

  8. Greta Gerwig, Little Women (+2)

  9. Trey Edward Schults, Waves (-2)

  10. Lulu Wang, The Farewell (-2)

Best Actress

  1. Renee Zellweger, Judy (-)

  2. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story (-)

  3. Alfre Woodard, Clemency (+2)

  4. Charlize Theron, Bombshell (-)

  5. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women (-2)
    —

  6. Awkwafina, The Farewell (-)

  7. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet (-)

  8. Lupita Nyong’o, Us (+1)

  9. Helen Mirren, The Good Liar (-1)

  10. Jodie Turner-Smith, Queen & Slim (-)

Best Actor

  1. Adam Driver, Marriage Story (-)

  2. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes (+1)

  3. Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name (+2)

  4. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory (-2)

  5. Christian Bale, Ford v. Ferrari (-1)
    —

  6. Robert De Niro, The Irishman (+1)

  7. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker (-1)

  8. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (+1)

  9. Ian McKellen, The Good Liar (+1)

  10. Mark Ruffalo, Dark Waters (-2)

Best Supporting Actress

  1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story (-)

  2. Annette Bening, The Report (-)

  3. Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (-)

  4. Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey (+6)

  5. Jennifer Hudson, Cats (-1)
    —

  6. Zhao Shuzhen, The Farewell (-)

  7. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers (+1)

  8. Julie Hagerty, Marriage Story (-1)

  9. Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell (NEW)

  10. Nicole Kidman, Bombshell (NEW)

DROPPED
Anna Paquin, The Irishman (-6)
Meryl Streep, Little Women (-2)

Best Supporting Actor

  1. Al Pacino, The Irishman (+6)

  2. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (-1)

  3. Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes (-1)

  4. Alan Alda, Marriage Story (-1)

  5. John Lithgow, Bombshell (-1)
    —

  6. Sterling K. Brown, Waves (-1)

  7. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (+2)

  8. Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy (-2)

  9. Joe Pesci, The Irishman (NEW)

  10. Ian McKellen, Cats (-)

DROPPED
Kelvin Harrison, Jr., Waves (-4)

Best Original Screenplay

  1. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story (-)

  2. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (-)

  3. Pedro Almodovar, Pain and Glory (+2)

  4. Joon-Ho Bong and Jin Won Han, Parasite (+2)

  5. Trey Edward Schults, Waves (-2)
    —

  6. Lulu Wang, The Farewell (-2)

  7. Scott Z. Burns, The Report (-)

  8. Scott Alexander and Larry Karaszewski, Dolemite Is My Name (+2)

  9. Charles Randolph, Bombshell (-1)

  10. Jez Butterworth, John-Henry Butterworth, Jason Keller and James Mangold, Ford v. Ferrari (-1)

Best Adapted Screenplay

  1. Steven Zaiillian, The Irishman (-)

  2. Frank Cottrell-Boyce and Anthony McCarten, The Two Popes (+1)

  3. Greta Gerwig, Little Women (-1)

  4. Micah Fitzerman-Blue and Noah Harpster, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (+1)

  5. Matthew Michael Carnahan and Mario Correa, Dark Waters (-1)
    —

  6. Julian Fellowes, Downton Abbey (-)

  7. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (+2)

  8. Lorene Scafaria, Hustlers (NEW)

  9. Destin Daniel Cretton and Andrew Lanham, Just Mercy (-3)

  10. Jeffrey Hatcher, The Good Liar (-)

DROPPED
Todd Phillips and Scott Silver, Joker (-3)

Best Animated Feature

  1. Toy Story 4 (-)

  2. Frozen II (+1)

  3. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (-1)

  4. Missing Link (-)

  5. Okko’s Inn (-)
    —

  6. I Lost My Body (NEW)

  7. Abominable (-1)

  8. A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon (-)

  9. Funan (-)

  10. The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part (-3)

DROPPED
The Secret Life of Pets 2 (-1)

Best Documentary Feature

  1. Maiden (+1)

  2. Apollo 11 (-1)

  3. Aquarela (-)

  4. One Child Nation (NEW)

  5. Rolling Thunder Revue: A Bob Dylan Story (-)
    —

  6. Amazing Grace (-)

  7. Pavarotti (-)

  8. Mike Wallace Is Here (-4)

  9. Untouchable (-1)

  10. Knock Down the House (-1)

DROPPED
Ask Dr. Ruth (-1)

Best International Feature

  1. Pain and Glory (Spain)

  2. Parasite (South Korea)

  3. Our Mothers (Belgium)

  4. Honeyland (Macedonia)

  5. Queen of Hearts (Denmark)
    —

  6. The Painted Bird (Czech Republic)

  7. The Delegation (Albania)

  8. Les Misérables (France)

  9. Heroic Losers (Argentina)

  10. Monos (Colombia)

Best Cinematography

  1. Rodrigo Prieto, The Irishman (+1)

  2. Robert Richardson, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (+1)

  3. Roger Deakins, 1917 (-2)

  4. Phedon Papamichael, Ford v. Ferrari (-)

  5. Drew Daniels, Waves (-)
    —

  6. Jörg Widmer, A Hidden Life (+1)

  7. Edward Lachmann, Dark Waters (+2)

  8. Christopher Ross, Cats (-2)

  9. Jarin Blaschke, The Lighthouse (NEW)

  10. George Steel, The Aeronauts (-2)

DROPPED
Yorick Le Saux, Little Women (-1)

Best Costume Design

  1. Arianne Phillips, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (-)

  2. Ruth E. Carter, Dolemite Is My Name (+2)

  3. Christopher Peterson and Sandy Powell, The Irishman (-1)

  4. Jany Temime, Judy (+2)

  5. Jacqueline Durran, Little Women (-2)
    —

  6. Paco Delgado, Cats (-1)

  7. Anna Mary Scott Robbins, Downton Abbey (NEW)

  8. Ellen Mirojnick, Maleficent: Mistress of Evil (-)

  9. Jacqueline Durran, 1917 (-2)

  10. Mayes C. Rubeo, Jojo Rabbit (-)

DROPPED
Julian Day, Rocketman (-2)

Best Film Editing

  1. Thelma Schoonmaker, The Irishman (-)

  2. Fred Raskin, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (+1)

  3. Lee Smith, 1917 (+1)

  4. Michael McCusker, Ford v. Ferrari (-2)

  5. John Poll, Bombshell (-)
    —

  6. Jennifer Lame, Marriage Story (+1)

  7. Maryann Brandon and Stefan Grube, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (+1)

  8. Trey Edward Shults and Isaac Hagy, Waves (-2)

  9. Melanie Oliver, Cats (-)

  10. Greg O’Bryant, The Report (-)

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

  1. Jeremy Woodhead, Judy (+1)

  2. Vivian Baker, Jaime Leigh McIntosh, Anne Morgan and Cristina Waltz, Bombshell (-1)

  3. Uxue Laguardia and Niamh O’Loan, Cats (-)

  4. Belinda Anderson and Angie Wells, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (+1)

  5. Debra Denson, Carla Farmer, Stacey Morris and Vera Steimberg Moder, Dolemite Is My Name (-1)
    —

  6. Sacha Carter, Paul Gooch and David White, Maleficent: Mistress of Evil (+1)

  7. Kay Georgiou and Nicki Ledermann, Joker (-1)

  8. Janine Rath and Heba Thorisdottir, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (-)

  9. Fríða Aradóttir and Jennifer Bell, Little Women (-)

  10. Lizzie Georglou and Elizabeth Yianni-Georgiou, Rocketman (-)

Best Original Score

  1. John Williams, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (-)

  2. Thomas Newman, 1917 (-)

  3. Marco Beltrami, Ford v. Ferrari (+1)

  4. Randy Newman, Marriage Story (+2)

  5. Alexandre Desplat, Little Women (-2)
    —

  6. Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, Waves (-1)

  7. Scott Bomar, Dolemite Is My Name (-)

  8. Nate Heller, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (-)

  9. Carter Burwell, The Good Liar (-)

  10. Danny Elfman, Dumbo (-)

Best Production Design

  1. Nancy Haigh and Barbara Ling, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (-)

  2. Dennis Gassner, 1917 (-)

  3. Regina Graves and Bob Shaw, The Irishman (-)

  4. Rick Carter and Kevin Jenkins, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (+1)

  5. Eve Stewart, Cats (-1)
    —

  6. David Hindle and Christian Huband, The Aeronauts (-)

  7. Claire Kaufman, Little Women (-)

  8. Clay A. Griffith and Lisa K. Sessions, Dolemite Is My Name (+2)

  9. Dominic Capon and Patrick Tatopoulos, Maleficent: Mistress of Evil (-1)

  10. François Audouy and Peter Lando, Ford v. Ferrari (-1)

Best Sound Editing

  1. David Acord and Matthew Wood, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (-)

  2. The team from 1917 (+1)

  3. Shannon Mills and Samson Neslund, Avengers: Endgame (+1)

  4. Eric A. Norris and Donald Sylvester, Ford v. Ferrari (-2)

  5. Harry Cohen and Leo Marcil, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (-)
    —

  6. The team from Cats (-)

  7. Philip Stockton, The Irishman (+2)

  8. Saoirse Christopherson and Lee Walpole, The Aeronauts (-1)

  9. Teresa Eckton, J.R. Grubbs, Kimberly Patrick and Dee Selby, Captain Marvel (-1)

  10. Craig Henighan, Terminator: Dark Fate (-)

Best Sound Mixing

  1. Ben Burtt and Andy Nelson, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (-)

  2. Scott Millan, 1917 (+1)

  3. Michael Minkler, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (+1)

  4. Richard Bullock, Jr., Paul Massey and Steven Morrow, Ford v. Ferrari (-2)

  5. Simon Hayes, Cats (-)
    —

  6. Tom Johnson, Juan Peralta and Douglas Parker, Avengers: Endgame (-)

  7. Tod A. Maitland, The Irishman (+1)

  8. Stuart Hilliker and Lee Walpole, The Aeronauts (-1)

  9. Paul Cotterell and Johnathan Rush, Judy (-)

  10. John Hayes, Rocketman (-)

Best Visual Effects

  1. Roger Guyett and Dominic Tuohy, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (-)

  2. Dan DeLeeuw, Russell Earl, Kelly Port and Daniel Sudick, Avengers: Endgame (-)

  3. Pablo Helman and Jiwoong Kim, The Irishman (-)

  4. The team from Cats (-)

  5. Romain Arnoux, Louis Morin and Jean-François Ferland, The Aeronauts (-)
    —

  6. Robert Legato, Elliot Newman and Adam Valdez, The Lion King (+1)

  7. The team from 1917 (-)

  8. Daniel Sudick and Christopher Townsend, Captain Marvel (-2)

  9. The team from Terminator: Dark Fate (-)

  10. Mark Hawker, Bryan Hirota and Bill Westenhofer, Gemini Man (-)

October 07, 2019 /Andrew Carden
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