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Odds are strong Everything Everywhere All at Once leads the pack on Oscar nominations morning - in fact, it may prove the only film to score 10+ noms.

FINAL 2022 Oscar Nomination Predictions

January 21, 2023 by Andrew Carden in Oscars

We’re so close!

Usually, I’d have heaps to say in terms of the rhymes and reasons behind my final Oscar nom hunches. Alas, I just started a new job and haven’t quite had the time to delve into a detailed analysis. I have, however, had just enough time to compile one final set of nomination predictions for the season.

Below you’ll find ‘em, including, per usual, how many spots a contender has moved up or down since my last predictions. In a handful of cases, some wannabe nominees have fallen out of the rankings altogether, though most categories, especially among the crafts, haven’t seen significant movement over the past month.

Enjoy - and don’t you dare underestimate the power of Diane Warren and J. Ralph in Best Original Song!

Best Picture

  1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (+2)

  2. The Banshees of Inisherin (-)

  3. The Fabelmans (-2)

  4. Elvis (+1)

  5. Top Gun: Maverick (-1)

  6. TÁR (+1)

  7. The Whale (+5)

  8. Avatar: The Way of Water (-)

  9. All Quiet on the Western Front (+1)

  10. Babylon (-)
    —

  11. Aftersun (NEW)

  12. Women Talking (-6)

  13. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (-)

  14. RRR (-)

  15. Triangle of Sadness (-)

DROPPED
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (-5)

Best Director

  1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (-)

  2. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (+4)

  3. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (-1)

  4. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front (+1)

  5. Todd Field, TÁR (-2)
    —

  6. Baz Luhrmann, Elvis (+1)

  7. Joseph Kosinski, Top Gun: Maverick (NEW)

  8. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (-4)

  9. S. S. Rajamouli, RRR (-)

  10. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (-2)

DROPPED
Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness (-1)

Best Actress

  1. Cate Blanchett, TÁR (-)

  2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (-)

  3. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (-)

  4. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (+1)

  5. Margot Robbie, Babylon (-1)
    —

  6. Viola Davis, The Woman King (-)

  7. Ana de Armas, Blonde (NEW)

  8. Emma Thompson, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande (+1)

  9. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (-2)

  10. Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie (NEW)

DROPPED
Rooney Mara, Women Talking (-3)
Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway (-1)

Best Actor

  1. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (-)

  2. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (-)

  3. Austin Butler, Elvis (+1)

  4. Bill Nighy, Living (-1)

  5. Paul Mescal, Aftersun (-)
    —

  6. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection (+2)

  7. Adam Sandler, Hustle (+3)

  8. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (-1)

  9. Tom Hanks, A Man Called Otto (NEW)

  10. Adam Driver, White Noise (-4)

DROPPED
Diego Calva, Babylon (-2)

Best Supporting Actress

  1. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (-)

  2. Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (+2)

  3. Hong Chau, The Whale (+4)

  4. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once (+2)

  5. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (-3)
    —

  6. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (-1)

  7. Dolly de Leon, Triangle of Sadness (-4)

  8. Carey Mulligan, She Said (-)

  9. Janelle Monáe, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (-)

  10. Nina Hoss, TÁR (-)

Best Supporting Actor

  1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (-)

  2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (-)

  3. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (+1)

  4. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (+1)

  5. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (-1)
    —

  6. Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse (+1)

  7. Brad Pitt, Babylon (-1)

  8. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (-)

  9. Tom Hanks, Elvis (NEW)

  10. Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway (-1)

DROPPED
Mark Rylance, Bones & All (-1)

Best Original Screenplay

  1. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (-)

  2. Steven Spielberg and Tony Kushner, The Fabelmans (-)

  3. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (+1)

  4. Todd Field, TÁR (-1)

  5. Charlotte Wells, Aftersun (+1)
    —

  6. Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness (-1)

  7. Baz Luhrmann, Sam Bromell, Craig Pearce, Jeremy Done, Elvis (+1)

  8. Seth Reiss and Will Tracy, The Menu (NEW)

  9. Jeong Seo-kyeong and Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (-2)

  10. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (-1)

DROPPED
Chinonye Chukwu, Michael Reilly and Keith Beauchamp, Till (-4)

Best Adapted Screenplay

  1. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (-)

  2. Samuel D. Hunter, The Whale (+1)

  3. Ian Stokell, Lesley Paterson and Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front (+4)

  4. Kazuo Ishiguro, Living (-)

  5. Rian Johnson, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (-3)
    —

  6. Rebecca Lenkiewicz, She Said (-)

  7. Noah Baumbach, White Noise (-2)

  8. Ehren Kruger, Eric Warren Singer, Christopher McQuarrie, Top Gun: Maverick (-)

  9. Ryan Coogler and Joe Robert Cole, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (+1)

  10. David Kajganich, Bones & All (-1)

Best Animated Feature

  1. Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio (-)

  2. Marcel the Shell with Shoes on (-)

  3. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (-)

  4. Wendell & Wild (-)

  5. Turning Red (-)
    —

  6. My Father’s Dragon (-)

  7. Inu-Oh (-)

  8. The Bad Guys (-)

  9. Minions: The Rise of Gru (-)

  10. Strange World (-)

Best Animated Short Film

  1. More Than I Want to Remember (-)

  2. The Flying Sailor (-)

  3. Save Ralph (-)

  4. The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse (-)

  5. It’s Nice in Here (-)
    —

  6. The Garbage Man (-)

  7. New Moon (-)

  8. My Year of Dicks (-)

  9. Ice Merchants (-)

  10. Black Slide (-)

Best Documentary Feature

  1. Descendant (-)

  2. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (-)

  3. Fire of Love (-)

  4. The Territory (-)

  5. All That Breathes (-)
    —

  6. Hallelujah: Leonard Cohen, a Journey, a Song (-)

  7. Moonage Daydream (-)

  8. The Janes (-)

  9. Navalny (-)

  10. Retrograde (-)

Best Documentary Short Film

  1. The Elephant Whisperers (-)

  2. Haulout (-)

  3. Nuisance Bear (-)

  4. The Flagmakers (-)

  5. As Far as They Can Run (-)
    —

  6. American Justice on Trial: People v. Newton (-)

  7. Angola Do You Hear Us? Voices from a Plantation Prison (-)

  8. Shut Up and Paint (-)

  9. Holding Moses (-)

  10. Stranger at the Gate (-)

Best International Feature

  1. All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany) (-)

  2. Decision to Leave (South Korea) (-)

  3. Bardo (Mexico) (-)

  4. Argentina, 1985 (+1)

  5. Saint Omer (France) (+1)
    —

  6. Corsage (Austria) (+1)

  7. Close (Belgium) (-3)

  8. Holy Spider (Denmark) (-)

  9. The Quiet Girl (Ireland) (-)

  10. Cairo Conspiracy (Sweden) (-)

Best Live Action Short Film

  1. An Irish Goodbye (-)

  2. Night Ride (-)

  3. Nakam (-)

  4. The Red Suitcase (-)

  5. Tula (-)
    —

  6. Ivalu (-)

  7. Warsha (-)

  8. All in Favor (-)

  9. Le Pupille (-)

  10. The Treatment (-)

Best Cinematography

  1. Claudio Miranda, Top Gun: Maverick (+2)

  2. Russell Carpenter, Avatar: The Way of Water (-)

  3. James Friend, All Quiet on the Western Front (+1)

  4. Janusz Kaminski, The Fabelmans (-3)

  5. Roger Deakins, Empire of Light (-)
    —

  6. Mandy Walker, Elvis (-)

  7. Ben Davis, The Banshees of Inisherin (+2)

  8. Greig Fraser, The Batman (NEW)

  9. Darius Khondji, Bardo (NEW)

  10. Linus Sandgren, Babylon (-3)

DROPPED
Florian Hoffmeister, TÁR (-3)
Robert Richardson, Emancipation (-1)

Best Costume Design

  1. Ruth E. Carter, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (-)

  2. Mary Zophres, Babylon (-)

  3. Catherine Martin, Elvis (-)

  4. Shirley Kurata, Everything Everywhere All At Once (+3)

  5. Monika Buttinger, Corsage (-)
    —

  6. Jenny Beavan, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (-)

  7. Sandy Powell, Living (-1)

  8. Gersha Phillips, The Woman King (-4)

  9. Mark Bridges, The Fabelmans (-1)

  10. Jenny Eagan, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (-)

Best Film Editing

  1. Eddie Hamilton, Top Gun: Maverick (-)

  2. Matt Villa and Jonathan Redmond‎, Elvis (-)

  3. David Brenner, James Cameron, John Refouaa and Stephen E. Rivkin, Avatar: The Way of Water (-)

  4. Paul Rogers, Everything Everywhere All at Once (-)

  5. Sven Budelmann, All Quiet on the Western Front (+1)
    —

  6. Sarah Broshar and Michael Kahn, The Fabelmans (-1)

  7. Monika Willi, TÁR (-)

  8. Mikkel E.G. Nielsen, The Banshees of Inisherin (-)

  9. Bob Ducsay, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (-)

  10. Tom Cross, Babylon (-)

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

  1. Shane Thomas, Mark Coulier, Jason Baird and Louise Coulston, Elvis (-)

  2. Adrien Morot, Judy Chin and Anne Marie Bradley, The Whale (+1)

  3. Joel Harlow, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (+1)

  4. Naomi Donne, Mike Marino and Zoe Tahir, The Batman (-2)

  5. Heba Thorisdottir and Jaime Leigh McIntosh, Babylon (-)
    —

  6. Tina Roesler Kerwin and Jaime Leigh McIntosh, Blonde (+2)

  7. Nana Fischer, Miho Suzuki, Jason Collins, Adruitha Lee, Lori McCoy-Bell, Cassandra L. Russek and Yvette Shelton, Amsterdam (-1)

  8. Heike Merker, All Quiet on the Western Front (+1)

  9. The team from Crimes of the Future (-2)

  10. Ken Diaz and Andrea Bowman, Emancipation (-)

Best Original Score

  1. John Williams, The Fabelmans (-)

  2. Carter Burwell, The Banshees of Inisherin (-)

  3. Alexandre Desplat, Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio (-)

  4. Hildur Guðnadóttir, Women Talking (+1)

  5. Justin Hurwitz, Babylon (+1)
    —

  6. Terence Blanchard, The Woman King (-2)

  7. Ludwig Göransson, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (-)

  8. Son Lux, Everything Everywhere All at Once (+1)

  9. Simon Franglen, Avatar: The Way of Water (-1)

  10. Nicholas Britell, She Said (-)

Best Original Song

  1. “Naatu Naatu,” RRR (+3)

  2. “Hold My Hand,” Top Gun: Maverick (-1)

  3. “Applause,” Tell It Like a Woman (-1)

  4. “Ciao Papa,” Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio (+2)

  5. “Dust and Ash,” The Voice of Dust and Ash (-2)
    —

  6. “Stand Up,” Till (-1)

  7. “Lift Me Up,” Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (+1)

  8. “Nothing Is Lost (You Give Me Strength),” Avatar: The Way of Water (-1)

  9. “This Is a Life,” Everything Everywhere All at Once (-)

  10. “Good Afternoon,” Spirited (-)

Best Production Design

  1. Catherine Martin, Karen Murphy and Bev Dunn, Elvis (-)

  2. Dylan Cole, Ben Procter and Vanessa Cole, Avatar: The Way of Water (-)

  3. Florencia Martin and Anthony Carlino, Babylon (+1)

  4. Curt Enderle and Guy Davis, Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio (-1)

  5. Jason Kisvarday and Kelsi Ephraim, Everything Everywhere All at Once (-)
    —

  6. Christian M. Goldbeck, All Quiet on the Western Front (+2)

  7. Rick Carter and Karen O’Hara, The Fabelmans (-1)

  8. Hannah Beachler and Lisa K. Sessions, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (+1)

  9. Akin McKenzie, The Woman King (-2)

  10. Rick Heinrichs and Elli Griff, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (-)

Best Sound

  1. Mark Weingarten, James H. Mather, Al Nelson, Chris Burdon and Mark Taylor, Top Gun: Maverick (-)

  2. David Lee, Wayne Pashley, Andy Nelson and Michael Keller, Elvis (-)

  3. Gwen Whittle, Gary Summers, Mike Hedges, Chris Boyes, Tony Johnson and Julian Howarth, Avatar: The Way of Water (-)

  4. Brent Kiser, Andrew Twite, Stephen Nelson, Alexandra Fehrman and Ian Chase, Everything Everywhere All at Once (+1)

  5. Lars Ginzel, Frank Kruse, Markus Stemler and Viktor Prášil, All Quiet on the Western Front (-1)
    —

  6. Benjamin A. Burtt, Steve Boeddeker, Steve Boeddeker and Brandon Proctor, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (-)

  7. Paul Massey, David Giammarco and Jens Rosenlund Petersen, Moonage Daydream (+1)

  8. Stuart Wilson, William Files, Douglas Murray, Andy Nelson and William Files, The Batman (-1)

  9. Jon Taylor, Frank Montaño, Peter Cobbin and Tavish Grade, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (-)

  10. Steven Morrow, Mildred Iatrou Morgan, Andy Nelson and Ai-Ling Lee, Babylon (-)

Best Visual Effects

  1. Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon and Daniel Barrett, Avatar: The Way of Water (-)

  2. Ryan Tudhope, Scott R. Fisher, Seth Hill and Bryan Litson, Top Gun: Maverick (-)

  3. Geoffrey Baumann, Craig Hammack, Hanzhi Tang and Dan Sudick, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (-)

  4. Markus Frank, Viktor Muller, Frank Petzold and Kamil Jafar, All Quiet on the Western Front (-)

  5. Jason Billington, Brian Cox and Bruce Bright, Thirteen Lives (-)
    —

  6. Dan Lemmon, Russell Earl, Anders Langland and Dominic Tuoh, The Batman (+1)

  7. David Vickery, Alex Wuttke, Paul Corbould and Neal Scanlan, Jurassic World: Dominion (+3)

  8. Guillaume Rocheron, Jeremy Robert, Sreejith Venugopalan and Scott R. Fisher, Nope (-2)

  9. Christian Manz, Benjamin Loch, Stephane Naze and Alistair Williams, Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore (-)

  10. Janek Sirrs, Theo Bialek, Erik Winquist and Chris Corbould, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (-2)

January 21, 2023 /Andrew Carden
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