2022 Oscar Nomination Predictions (December)
Time for an update! :)
Since my last set of Oscar nom predictions in November, we’ve seen a plethora of precursor action, including Critics Choice and Golden Globe nominations, plus an array of critics’ awards. It’s been a month of especially robust momentum for Everything Everywhere All at Once which, thus far at least, has had a field day with the precursors.
More meaningful than those prizes, however, was the release of the Oscar shortlists among 10 categories, including Best Makeup & Hairstyling, Best Original Score, Best Original Song, Best Sound, Best Visual Effects, Best Documentary Feature, Best International Feature, Best Animated Short Film, Best Documentary Short Film, and Best Live Action Short Film.
And while Everything Everywhere All at Once did surface among three shortlists (Score, Song and Sound), it was All Quiet on the Western Front and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever that really steamrolled, surfacing in all five eligible categories. While neither of these films, unlike Everything Everywhere All at Once, is to be mistaken as a threat for say, the Best Picture win, both are very much in the running for nominations in the top category, plus an assortment of crafts recognition.
Alongside Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Banshees of Inisherin and The Fabelmans remain the most daunting awards season forces overall, destined to feast on nominations morning, with Elvis and Top Gun: Maverick also still on track for heaps of recognition. Perhaps dwindling a bit are the likes of Babylon, which has emerged one of the season’s most polarizing contenders, and The Whale, also divisive and increasingly looking like a long shot beyond Best Actor, Best Adapted Screenplay, and Best Makeup & Hairstyling.
There’s no shortage of suspense across the bulk of categories. Only Martin McDonagh and Steven Spielberg, for instance, strike me as close to safe for Best Director noms. And while the acting fields have their commanding contenders, like Cate Blanchett and Colin Farrell, there are few true shoo-ins. The supporting fields are especially tough to nail down beyond Kerry Condon, Ke Huy Quan, and Brendan Gleeson. (Even with their precursors love so far, I wonder if AMPAS will really go for Angela Bassett and/or Jamie Lee Curtis.)
Down the ballot, the crafts, no doubt, shall be dominated by the likes of Avatar: The Way of Water, Elvis, and Top Gun: Maverick, with Babylon perhaps booming or busting - it’s as easy to fathom it surfacing in eight categories overall as it is three. And if you’re not predicting Diane Warren and J. Ralph for their latest Best Original Song appearances, you haven’t been paying attention to that category’s history.
All that said, below are my updated Oscar nom predictions for the month of December, including how many spots a contender has moved up or down since my November hunches. For the first time, I’m including all of the shorts. I’ll do one final revision on these next month, once the Guilds and BAFTA have had their say.
Happy holidays! :)
Best Picture
The Fabelmans (-)
The Banshees of Inisherin (-)
Everything Everywhere All at Once (-)
Top Gun: Maverick (+1)
Elvis (+2)
Women Talking (-2)
TÁR (+4)
Avatar: The Way of Water (-)
Babylon (-3)
All Quiet on the Western Front (NEW)
—Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (NEW)
The Whale (-3)
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (-)
RRR (NEW)
Triangle of Sadness (-1)
DROPPED
Till (-6)
She Said (-4)
Decision to Leave (-1)
Best Director
Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (-)
Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (-)
Todd Field, TÁR (+4)
Sarah Polley, Women Talking (-1)
Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front (NEW)
—Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (+4)
Baz Luhrmann, Elvis (NEW)
James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (NEW)
S. S. Rajamouli, RRR (NEW)
Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness (-5)
DROPPED
Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (-7)
Darren Aronofsky, The Whale (-5)
Damien Chazelle, Babylon (-3)
Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Bardo (-2)
Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, TÁR (-)
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (-)
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (+1)
Margot Robbie, Babylon (+2)
Danielle Deadwyler, Till (-2)
—Viola Davis, The Woman King (+1)
Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (-2)
Rooney Mara, Women Talking (-)
Emma Thompson, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande (NEW)
Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway (-)
DROPPED
Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (-2)
Best Actor
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (+1)
Brendan Fraser, The Whale (-1)
Bill Nighy, Living (-)
Austin Butler, Elvis (-)
Paul Mescal, Aftersun (+4)
—Adam Driver, White Noise (-1)
Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (-1)
Jeremy Pope, The Inspection (-1)
Diego Calva, Babylon (+1)
Adam Sandler, Hustle (-2)
Best Supporting Actress
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (+2)
Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (-1)
Dolly de Leon, Triangle of Sadness (+3)
Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (+5)
Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (+3)
—Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once (+4)
Hong Chau, The Whale (-5)
Carey Mulligan, She Said (-1)
Janelle Monáe, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (NEW)
Nina Hoss, TÁR (-6)
DROPPED
Claire Foy, Women Talking (-6)
Best Supporting Actor
Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (+1)
Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (-1)
Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (+2)
Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (-1)
Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (+1)
—Brad Pitt, Babylon (+1)
Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse (-)
Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (-4)
Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway (NEW)
Mark Rylance, Bones & All (NEW)
DROPPED
Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness (-6)
Anthony Hopkins, Armageddon Time (-5)
Best Original Screenplay
Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (+1)
Steven Spielberg and Tony Kushner, The Fabelmans (-1)
Todd Field, TÁR (+4)
Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (-1)
Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness (-1)
—Charlotte Wells, Aftersun (+2)
Jeong Seo-kyeong and Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (-2)
Baz Luhrmann, Sam Bromell, Craig Pearce, Jeremy Done, Elvis (NEW)
Damien Chazelle, Babylon (-)
Chinonye Chukwu, Michael Reilly and Keith Beauchamp, Till (-4)
DROPPED
Sam Mendes, Empire of Light (-1)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Sarah Polley, Women Talking (-)
Rian Johnson, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (+3)
Samuel D. Hunter, The Whale (-)
Kazuo Ishiguro, Living (-)
Noah Baumbach, White Noise (-3)
—Rebecca Lenkiewicz, She Said (-)
Ian Stokell, Lesley Paterson and Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front (+2)
Ehren Kruger, Eric Warren Singer, Christopher McQuarrie, Top Gun: Maverick (-1)
David Kajganich, Bones & All (+1)
Ryan Coogler and Joe Robert Cole, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (-)
Best Animated Feature
Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio (-)
Marcel the Shell with Shoes on (+2)
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (+4)
Wendell & Wild (+1)
Turning Red (-3)
—My Father’s Dragon (+3)
Inu-Oh (NEW)
The Bad Guys (-2)
Minions: The Rise of Gru (-1)
Strange World (-7)
DROPPED
The Sea Beast (-3)
Best Animated Short Film
More Than I Want to Remember
The Flying Sailor
Save Ralph
The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse
It’s Nice in Here
—The Garbage Man
New Moon
My Year of Dicks
Ice Merchants
Black Slide
Best Documentary Feature
Descendant (-)
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (-)
Fire of Love (+1)
The Territory (+2)
All That Breathes (NEW)
—Hallelujah: Leonard Cohen, a Journey, a Song (NEW)
Moonage Daydream (NEW)
The Janes (NEW)
Navalny (-1)
Retrograde (NEW)
DROPPED
Good Night Oppy (-8)
Turn Every Page (-6)
Black Ice (-4)
Sr. (-2)
Salvatore: Shoemaker of Dreams (-1)
Best Documentary Short Film
The Elephant Whisperers
Haulout
Nuisance Bear
The Flagmakers
As Far as They Can Run
—American Justice on Trial: People v. Newton
Angola Do You Hear Us? Voices from a Plantation Prison
Shut Up and Paint
Holding Moses
Stranger at the Gate
Best International Feature
All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany) (-)
Decision to Leave (South Korea) (-)
Bardo (Mexico) (-)
Close (Belgium) (+1)
Argentina, 1985 (NEW)
—Saint Omer (France) (-2)
Corsage (Austria) (-)
Holy Spider (Denmark) (-)
The Quiet Girl (Ireland) (NEW)
Cairo Conspiracy (Sweden) (-1)
DROPPED
Klondike (Ukraine) (-6)
Cinema Sabaya (Israel) (-1)
Best Live Action Short Film
An Irish Goodbye
Night Ride
Nakam
The Red Suitcase
Tula
—Ivalu
Warsha
All in Favor
Le Pupille
The Treatment
Best Cinematography
Janusz Kaminski, The Fabelmans (-)
Russell Carpenter, Avatar: The Way of Water (+1)
Claudio Miranda, Top Gun: Maverick (+5)
James Friend, All Quiet on the Western Front (+1)
Roger Deakins, Empire of Light (-3)
—Mandy Walker, Elvis (-1)
Linus Sandgren, Babylon (-3)
Florian Hoffmeister, TÁR (NEW)
Ben Davis, The Banshees of Inisherin (-)
Robert Richardson, Emancipation (-)
DROPPED
Darius Khondji, Bardo (-4)
Best Costume Design
Ruth E. Carter, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (-)
Mary Zophres, Babylon (-)
Catherine Martin, Elvis (-)
Gersha Phillips, The Woman King (-)
Monika Buttinger, Corsage (-)
—Jenny Beavan, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (-)
Shirley Kurata, Everything Everywhere All At Once (-)
Mark Bridges, The Fabelmans (+1)
Sandy Powell, Living (-1)
Jenny Eagan, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (NEW)
DROPPED
Jennifer Johnson, Blonde (-1)
Best Film Editing
Eddie Hamilton, Top Gun: Maverick (-)
Matt Villa and Jonathan Redmond, Elvis (+2)
David Brenner, James Cameron, John Refouaa and Stephen E. Rivkin, Avatar: The Way of Water (+2)
Paul Rogers, Everything Everywhere All at Once (-1)
Sarah Broshar and Michael Kahn, The Fabelmans (-3)
—Sven Budelmann, All Quiet on the Western Front (+2)
Monika Willi, TÁR (-)
Mikkel E.G. Nielsen, The Banshees of Inisherin (-2)
Bob Ducsay, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (NEW)
Tom Cross, Babylon (-)
DROPPED
Michael P. Shawver, Kelley Dixon and Jennifer Lame, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (-2)
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
Shane Thomas, Mark Coulier, Jason Baird and Louise Coulston, Elvis (+1)
Naomi Donne, Mike Marino and Zoe Tahir, The Batman (+1)
Adrien Morot, Judy Chin and Anne Marie Bradley, The Whale (-2)
Joel Harlow, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (+2)
Heba Thorisdottir and Jaime Leigh McIntosh, Babylon (-1)
—The team from Amsterdam (+4)
The team from Crimes of the Future (NEW)
Tina Roesler Kerwin and Jaime Leigh McIntosh, Blonde (-)
Heike Merker, All Quiet on the Western Front (NEW)
Ken Diaz and Andrea Bowman, Emancipation (NEW)
DROPPED
Babalwa Mtshiselwa, Sergio Lopez-Rivera, Jamika Wilson and Louisa V. Anthony, The Woman King (-6)
Maralyn Sherman, Carmel Jackson and Stefania Pellegrini, The Northman (-4)
Michelle Chung and Anissa Salazar, Everything Everywhere All at Once (-2)
Best Original Score
John Williams, The Fabelmans (-)
Carter Burwell, The Banshees of Inisherin (+3)
Alexandre Desplat, Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio (+1)
Terence Blanchard, The Woman King (+3)
Hildur Guðnadóttir, Women Talking (+3)
—Justin Hurwitz, Babylon (-3)
Ludwig Göransson, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (NEW)
Simon Franglen, Avatar: The Way of Water (+2)
Son Lux, Everything Everywhere All at Once (-)
Nicholas Britell, She Said (NEW)
DROPPED
Hildur Guðnadóttir, TÁR (-9)
Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, Empire of Light (-5)
Best Original Song
“Hold My Hand,” Top Gun: Maverick (-)
“Applause,” Tell It Like a Woman (-)
“Dust and Ash,” The Voice of Dust and Ash (-)
“Naatu Naatu,” RRR (+1)
“Stand Up,” Till (-1)
—“Ciao Papa,” Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio (-)
“Nothing Is Lost (You Give Me Strength),” Avatar: The Way of Water (NEW)
“Lift Me Up,” Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (-)
“This Is a Life,” Everything Everywhere All at Once (+1)
“Good Afternoon,” Spirited (NEW)
DROPPED
“Nobody Like U,” Turning Red (-4)
“At the Automat,” The Automat (-2)
Best Production Design
Catherine Martin, Karen Murphy and Bev Dunn, Elvis (-)
Dylan Cole, Ben Procter and Vanessa Cole, Avatar: The Way of Water (-)
Curt Enderle and Guy Davis, Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio (-)
Florencia Martin and Anthony Carlino, Babylon (-)
Jason Kisvarday and Kelsi Ephraim, Everything Everywhere All at Once (+1)
—Rick Carter and Karen O’Hara, The Fabelmans (-1)
Akin McKenzie, The Woman King (-)
Christian M. Goldbeck, All Quiet on the Western Front (+2)
Hannah Beachler and Lisa K. Sessions, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (-)
Rick Heinrichs and Elli Griff, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (NEW)
DROPPED
Eugenio Caballero, Bardo (-3)
Best Sound
Mark Weingarten, James H. Mather, Al Nelson, Chris Burdon and Mark Taylor, Top Gun: Maverick (-)
David Lee, Wayne Pashley, Andy Nelson and Michael Keller, Elvis (-)
Gwen Whittle, Gary Summers, Mike Hedges, Chris Boyes, Tony Johnson and Julian Howarth, Avatar: The Way of Water (-)
Lars Ginzel, Frank Kruse, Markus Stemler and Viktor Prášil, All Quiet on the Western Front (+2)
Brent Kiser, Andrew Twite, Stephen Nelson, Alexandra Fehrman and Ian Chase, Everything Everywhere All at Once (-1)
—Benjamin A. Burtt, Steve Boeddeker, Steve Boeddeker and Brandon Proctor, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (+2)
Stuart Wilson, William Files, Douglas Murray, Andy Nelson and William Files, The Batman (+2)
The team from Moonage Daydream (NEW)
The team from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (NEW)
Steven Morrow, Mildred Iatrou Morgan, Andy Nelson and Ai-Ling Lee, Babylon (-)
DROPPED
Oliver Tarney, Rachael Tate, Chris Burdon, William Miller and Paul “Salty” Brincat, Thirteen Lives (-6)
Gary Rydstrom, Brian Chumney, Andy Nelson and Ronald Judkins, The Fabelmans (-4)
Best Visual Effects
Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon and Daniel Barrett, Avatar: The Way of Water (-)
Ryan Tudhope, Scott R. Fisher, Seth Hill and Bryan Litson, Top Gun: Maverick (-)
Geoffrey Baumann, Craig Hammack, Hanzhi Tang and Dan Sudick, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (+2)
Markus Frank, Viktor Muller, Frank Petzold and Kamil Jafar, All Quiet on the Western Front (NEW)
Jason Billington, Brian Cox and Bruce Bright, Thirteen Lives (NEW)
—Guillaume Rocheron, Jeremy Robert, Sreejith Venugopalan and Scott R. Fisher, Nope (+4)
Dan Lemmon, Russell Earl, Anders Langland and Dominic Tuoh, The Batman (+1)
Janek Sirrs, Theo Bialek, Erik Winquist and Chris Corbould, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (+1)
Christian Manz, Benjamin Loch, Stephane Naze and Alistair Williams, Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore (NEW)
David Vickery, Alex Wuttke, Paul Corbould and Neal Scanlan, Jurassic World: Dominion (NEW)
DROPPED
Aaron Weintraub, Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio (-8)
Zak Stoltz, Ethan Feldbau, Benjamin Brewer and Jeff Desom, Everything Everywhere All at Once (-6)
V. Srinivas Mohan, RRR (-5)
Ivan Busquets, Abishek Nair, Marko Chulev and Steven Nichols, Good Night Oppy (-4)