2022 Oscar Nomination Predictions (November)

Hey everybody, just checking in. :)

The past month, since my October set of Oscar predictions, has not exactly seen seismic shifts across this year’s races. Gotham Award nominations aside, we’ve yet to see much in the way of precursors, with Independent Spirit Awards noms on the horizon later this month and then a plethora of honors, including Golden Globe nominations and an array of critics’ prizes, coming in December.

We have, at least, seemingly solidified this season’s category placements in the acting races. As expected, Margot Robbie will score a Lead push for Babylon, with Diego Calva and Brad Pitt on the hunt for Lead and Supporting noms, respectively. More surprising (or not, given the constant category fraud we’re treated to), Zoe Kazan and Carey Mulligan will go their separate ways for She Said, the former in Lead, the latter (inexplicably) in Supporting.

Speaking of Babylon and She Said, both contenders finally screened since my last predictions - and not to unanimous raves. For sure, these pictures are in play in a plethora of categories, but you’ll see both contenders tumble a bit in the rankings below. Babylon looks poised to be among the year’s more polarizing awards season players, though it’s tough to fathom it not having a field day in at least the crafts categories. As for She Said, it’s seen a critical reception just positive enough to maybe land in Best Picture, Best Supporting Actress and Best Adapted Screenplay…but could just as easily be totally MIA on Oscar noms morning.

While I’m on the topic of films that’ve dipped a bit in my rankings, there’s Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, a contender that, like its predecessor, has proven a commanding box office success. Critically, however, the reception hasn’t been as robust as with the first, so it’s plausible to see it merely proving a force in the craft categories this time around. That’s more than I can say for Armageddon Time, which also hit theaters this past month but to lukewarm critical success and nightmarish box office receipts.

If there’s a contender I’m increasingly high on, it’s Till, which hasn’t surfaced in most pundits’ Best Picture predictions - and I can’t say I understand why. Reviews have been fantastic, not only for leading lady Danielle Deadwyler but also the film itself, and its box office has been no worse than that for The Banshees of Inisherin and TÁR, films overwhelmingly expected to score heaps of recognition. And it could score slots in Best Original Screenplay and Best Original Song. Couple those with a likely Best Actress bid and it’s reasonable to fathom this timely, powerful film grab a spot in the top category.

All that said, below are my updated Oscar nom predictions for the month of November, including how many slots a contender has moved up or down since my October set of hunches. I’ll do another revision on these sometime next month, likely after some of the shortlists have surfaced.

See ya! ;)

Best Picture

1. The Fabelmans (-)

2. The Banshees of Inisherin (+1)

3. Everything Everywhere All at Once (+1)

4. Women Talking (+2)

5. Top Gun: Maverick (-)

6. Babylon (-5)

7. Elvis (+1)

8. Avatar: The Way of Water (-)

9. The Whale (+1)

10. Till (+4)
    —

11. TÁR (+1)

12. She Said (-3)

13. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (-3)

14. Triangle of Sadness (-1)

15. Decision to Leave (-)

Best Director

1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (-)

2. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (+3)

3. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (+5)

4. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (-)

5. Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness (-2)
   —

6. Darren Aronofsky, The Whale (-)

7. Todd Field, TÁR (-)

8. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (-6)

9. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Bardo (NEW)

10. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (-1)

DROPPED
Maria Schrader, She Said (-1)

Best Actress

1. Cate Blanchett, TÁR (-)

2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (-)

3. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (+1)

4. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (-1)

5. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (-)
   —

6. Margot Robbie, Babylon (+1)

7. Viola Davis, The Woman King (-1)

8. Rooney Mara, Women Talking (NEW)

9. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (+1)

10. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway (-1)

DROPPED
Carey Mulligan, She Said (-4)

Best Actor

1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (-)

2. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (+1)

3. Bill Nighy, Living (+1)

4. Austin Butler, Elvis (-2)

5. Adam Driver, White Noise (+1)
   —

6. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (+3)

7. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection (+3)

8. Adam Sandler, Hustle (NEW)

9. Paul Mescal, Aftersun (NEW)

10. Diego Calva, Babylon (-2)

DROPPED
Hugh Jackman, The Son (-6)
Song Kang-ho, Broker (-4)

Best Supporting Actress

1. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (-)

2. Hong Chau, The Whale (-)

3. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (+1)

4. Nina Hoss, TÁR (NEW)

5. Claire Foy, Women Talking (+2)
   —

6. Dolly de Leon, Triangle of Sadness (-)

7. Carey Mulligan, She Said (NEW)

8. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (NEW)

9. Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (-)

10. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once (NEW)

DROPPED
Jean Smart, Babylon (-8)
Samantha Morton, She Said (-6)
Sadie Sink, The Whale (-3)
Laura Dern, The Son (-1)

Best Supporting Actor

1. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (-)

2. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (+3)

3. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (-1)

4. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (+2)

5. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (+2)
   —

6. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (+3)

7. Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse (NEW)

8. Brad Pitt, Babylon (-)

9. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness (-6)

10. Anthony Hopkins, Armageddon Time (-5)

DROPPED
Jeremy Strong, Armageddon Time (-1)

Best Original Screenplay

1. Steven Spielberg and Tony Kushner, The Fabelmans (-)

2. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (-)

3. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (+4)

4. Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness (-1)

5. Jeong Seo-kyeong and Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (-1)
   —

6. Chinonye Chukwu, Michael Reilly and Keith Beauchamp, Till (+1)

7. Todd Field, TÁR (+1)

8. Charlotte Wells, Aftersun (+1)

9. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (-4)

10. Sam Mendes, Empire of Light (-)

DROPPED
James Gray, Armageddon Time (-1)

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (-)

2. Noah Baumbach, White Noise (-)

3. Samuel D. Hunter, The Whale (+3)

4. Kazuo Ishiguro, Living (-)

5. Rian Johnson, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (-2)
   —

6. Rebecca Lenkiewicz, She Said (-1)

7. Ehren Kruger, Eric Warren Singer, Christopher McQuarrie, Top Gun: Maverick (+2)

8. Ian Stokell, Lesley Paterson and Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front (+2)

9. Ryan Coogler and Joe Robert Cole, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (-1)

10. David Kajganich, Bones and All (NEW)

Best Animated Feature

1. Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio (+1)

2. Turning Red (-1)

3. Strange World (-)

4. Marcel the Shell with Shoes on (-)

5. Wendell & Wild (+1)
   —

6. The Bad Guys (-1)

7. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (+1)

8. Minions: The Rise of Gru (+1)

9. My Father’s Dragon (+1)

10. The Sea Beast (-3)

Best Documentary Feature

1. Descendant (-)

2. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (+7)

3. Good Night Oppy (-)

4. Fire of Love (-2)

5. Turn Every Page (NEW)
   —

6. The Territory (-2)

7. Black Ice (-2)

8. Navalny (-1)

9. Sr. (+1)

10. Salvatore: Shoemaker of Dreams (NEW)

DROPPED
Aftershock (-5)
Retrograde (-3)

Best International Feature

1. All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany) (+1)

2. Decision to Leave (Korea) (-1)

3. Bardo (Mexico) (-)

4. Saint Omer (France) (+5)

5. Klondike (Ukraine) (-1)
   —

6. Close (Belgium) (-1)

7. Corsage (Austria) (+3)

8. Holy Spider (Denmark) (-2)

9. Boy from Heaven (Sweden) (-2)

10. Cinema Sabaya (Israel) (-2)

Best Cinematography

1. Janusz Kaminski, The Fabelmans (-)

2. Roger Deakins, Empire of Light (-)

3. Russell Carpenter, Avatar: The Way of Water (+1)

4. Linus Sandgren, Babylon (-1)

5. James Friend, All Quiet on the Western Front (-)
   —

6. Mandy Walker, Elvis (-)

7. Darius Khondji, Bardo (+1)

8. Claudio Miranda, Top Gun: Maverick (-1)

9. Ben Davis, The Banshees of Inisherin (NEW)

10. Robert Richardson, Emancipation (NEW)

DROPPED
Chayse Irvin, Blonde (-2)
Florian Hoffmeister, TÁR (-1)

Best Costume Design

1. Ruth E. Carter, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (-)

2. Mary Zophres, Babylon (-)

3. Catherine Martin, Elvis (-)

4. Gersha Phillips, The Woman King (-)

5. Monika Buttinger, Corsage (-)
   —

6. Jenny Beavan, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (-)

7. Shirley Kurata, Everything Everywhere All At Once (-)

8. Sandy Powell, Living (NEW)

9. Mark Bridges, The Fabelmans (-1)

10. Jennifer Johnson, Blonde (-1)

DROPPED
Oliver Garcia, Chevalier (-1)

Best Film Editing

1. Eddie Hamilton, Top Gun: Maverick (-)

2. Sarah Broshar and Michael Kahn, The Fabelmans (+1)

3. Paul Rogers, Everything Everywhere All at Once (-1)

4. Matt Villa and Jonathan Redmond‎, Elvis (+2)

5. David Brenner, James Cameron, John Refouaa and Stephen E. Rivkin, Avatar: The Way of Water (-)
   —

6. Mikkel E.G. Nielsen, The Banshees of Inisherin (NEW)

7. Monika Willi, TÁR (-)

8. Sven Budelmann, All Quiet on the Western Front (+1)

9. Michael P. Shawver, Kelley Dixon and Jennifer Lame, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (-1)

10. Tom Cross, Babylon (-4)

DROPPED
Bob Ducsay, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Story (-1)

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

1. The team from The Whale (-)

2. Shane Thomas, Mark Coulier, Jason Baird and Louise Coulston, Elvis (-)

3. Naomi Donne, Mike Marino and Zoe Tahir, The Batman (+1)

4. The team from Babylon (-1)

5. Babalwa Mtshiselwa, Sergio Lopez-Rivera, Jamika Wilson and Louisa V. Anthony, The Woman King (+1)
   —

6. Joel Harlow, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (-1)

7. The team from The Northman (+1)

8. Tina Roesler Kerwin and Jaime Leigh McIntosh, Blonde (-1)

9. The team from Everything Everywhere All at Once (-)

10. The team from Amsterdam (-)

Best Original Score

1. John Williams, The Fabelmans (-)

2. Hildur Guðnadóttir, TÁR (-)

3. Justin Hurwitz, Babylon (-)

4. Alexandre Desplat, Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio (+1)

5. Carter Burwell, The Banshees of Inisherin (+1)
   —

6. Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, Empire of Light (-2)

7. Terence Blanchard, The Woman King (+1)

8. Hildur Guðnadóttir, Women Talking (NEW)

9. Son Lux, Everything Everywhere All at Once (-)

10. Simon Franglen, Avatar: The Way of Water (-)

DROPPED
Ludwig Göransson, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (-4)

Best Original Song

1. “Hold My Hand,” Top Gun: Maverick (-)

2. “Applause,” Tell It Like a Woman (-)

3. “Dust and Ash,” The Voice of Dust and Ash (-)

4. “Stand Up,” Till (NEW)

5. “Naatu Naatu,” RRR (-1)
   —

6. “Ciao Papa,” Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio (NEW)

7. “Nobody Like U,” Turning Red (-1)

8. “Lift Me Up,” Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (NEW)

9. “At the Automat,” The Automat (-1)

10. “This Is a Life,” Everything Everywhere All at Once (-5)

DROPPED
“(You Made It Feel Like) Home,” Bones and All (-4)
“New Body Rhumba,” White Noise (-2)
“Carolina,” Where the Crawdads Sing (-1)

Best Production Design

1. Catherine Martin, Karen Murphy and Beverley Dunn, Elvis (-)

2. Dylan Cole, Ben Procter and Vanessa Cole, Avatar: The Way of Water (+1)

3. Curt Enderle and Guy Davis, Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio (NEW)

4. Florencia Martin and Anthony Carlino, Babylon (-2)

5. Rick Carter and Karen O’Hara, The Fabelmans (-1)
   —

6. Jason Kisvarday and Kelsi Ephraim, Everything Everywhere All at Once (-)

7. Akin McKenzie, The Woman King (+3)

8. Eugenio Caballero, Bardo (-)

9. Hannah Beachler and Lisa K. Sessions, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (-4)

10. Christian M. Goldbeck, All Quiet on the Western Front (-1)

DROPPED
Rick Heinrichs, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (-4)

Best Sound

1. Mark Weingarten, James H. Mather, Al Nelson, Chris Burdon and Mark Taylor, Top Gun: Maverick (-)

2. David Lee, Wayne Pashley, Andy Nelson and Michael Keller, Elvis (-)

3. Gwen Whittle, Gary Summers, Mike Hedges, Chris Boyes, Tony Johnson and Julian Howarth, Avatar: The Way of Water (-)

4. The team from Everything Everywhere All at Once (+2)

5. Oliver Tarney, Rachael Tate, Chris Burdon, William Miller and Paul “Salty” Brincat, Thirteen Lives (NEW)
   —

6. The team from All Quiet on the Western Front (-1)

7. Gary Rydstrom, Brian Chumney, Andy Nelson and Ronald Judkins, The Fabelmans (NEW)

8. Benjamin A. Burtt, Steve Boeddeker, Steve Boeddeker and Brandon Proctor, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (-4)

9. Stuart Wilson, William Files, Douglas Murray, Andy Nelson and William Files, The Batman (-)

10. The team from Babylon (-3)

DROPPED
The team from TÁR (-3)
Johnnie Burn and Jose Antonio Garcia, Nope (-1)

Best Visual Effects

1. Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon and Daniel Barrett, Avatar: The Way of Water (-)

2. Ryan Tudhope, Scott R. Fisher, Seth Hill and Bryan Litson, Top Gun: Maverick (-)

3. Aaron Weintraub, Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio (+2)

4. Geoffrey Baumann, Craig Hammack, Hanzhi Tang and Dan Sudick, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (-1)

5. The team from Everything Everywhere All at Once (-1)
   —

6. V. Srinivas Mohan, RRR (-)

7. Ivan Busquets, Abishek Nair, Marko Chulev and Steven Nichols, Good Night Oppy (+2)

8. Dan Lemmon, Russell Earl, Anders Langland and Dominic Tuoh, The Batman (-)

9. The team from Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (-2)

10. Guillaume Rocheron, Jeremy Robert, Sreejith Venugopalan and Scott R. Fisher, Nope (-)