2021 Oscar Nomination Predictions (September)
Here we go again…
It feels like just yesterday that I was inexplicably making the case for Andra Day in Best Actress and clinging to the hope that, at last, it could be Diane Warren’s year in Best Original Song. (Though, let’s be fair, both may have come reasonably close.)
In years past, I’ve usually by this point released an opening set of Summer Oscar Predictions but, having seen a total of seven feature films thus far this year, let’s just say I haven’t been the most engaged or clamoring to dive into the season. Alas, there of course comes a point where I, Oscar nut, cannot help myself.
So, I have indeed assembled my first set of Oscar predictions, albeit just in the top eight categories for now. And what I love, right off the bat, is the crossover between these and my first set of predictions from the last cycle, which also sported the likes of C’mon C’mon, The Humans, Respect and West Side Story. What a haphazard time it’s been.
At this point in the season, I’m never terribly confident about too many contenders. In Best Picture, for instance, only Belfast and The Power of the Dog strike me as anything close to shoo-ins for nominations - and it seems completely within the realm of possibility that the Jane Campion picture, which isn’t without its detractors, could underperform a bit.
Dune and Nightmare Alley sure look ravishing, destined to dine on the technical categories, but how much will they factor into the top eight? For now, I suspect both do…to an extent. Likewise, we’re looking at big acting contenders like King Richard, Spencer and The Tragedy of Macbeth that may or not may prove formidable elsewhere.
There are a few hopefuls I’m not much sold on. Neither Ridley Scott picture (House of Gucci and The Last Duel) strikes me as poised to make a big splash, though you’ll see the first film scattered here and there in my predictions. Being the Ricardos reeks to me of impending misfire and Mass may be among the year’s best-acted films but it’s stuck with a distributor that’s never proven successful in playing the awards season game.
And there remain a number of question marks around category placement, perhaps most notably with Belfast’s Caitriona Balfe and Jamie Dornan, both of who can make the cut in either field. Macbeth’s Frances McDormand and Ricardos’ Javier Bardem are a couple of the other names who could seemingly go either way.
All that said, here are my hunches for now, ranked from most to least likely to be nominated. I’ll update these babies sometime later in the fall, at which point we’ll surely have some new contenders.
Who knows, perhaps Glenn Close gives a career-best turn in Swan Song. ;)
Best Picture
Belfast
The Power of the Dog
King Richard
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story
The Tragedy of Macbeth
Don’t Look Up
Licorice Pizza
CODA
Dune
—Spencer
C’mon C’mon
House of Gucci
The French Dispatch
The Lost Daughter
Best Director
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley
Denis Villeneuve, Dune
Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
—Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up
Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Pedro Almodovar, Parallel Mothers
Reinaldo Marcus Green, King Richard
Best Actress
Kristen Stewart, Spencer
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Jennifer Hudson, Respect
Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
—Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
Jennifer Lawrence, Don’t Look Up
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley
Halle Berry, Bruised
Best Actor
Will Smith, King Richard
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Joaquin Phoenix, C’mon C’mon
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up
—Peter Dinklage, Cyrano
Clifton Collins, Jr., Jockey
Andrew Garfield, tick, tick…BOOM!
Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley
Adam Driver, House of Gucci
Best Supporting Actress
Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Judi Dench, Belfast
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Caitriona Balfe, Belfast
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
—Marlee Matlin, CODA
Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
Ruth Negga, Passing
Ann Dowd, Mass
Best Supporting Actor
Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza
Corey Hawkins, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Jonah Hill, Don’t Look Up
Jared Leto, House of Gucci
Richard Jenkins, The Humans
—Jamie Dornan, Belfast
Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Best Original Screenplay
Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
Adam McKay and David Sirota, Don’t Look Up
Mike Mills, C’mon C’mon
Zach Baylin, King Richard
—Pedro Almodovar, Parallel Mothers
Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola, Hugo Guinness and Jason Schwartzman, The French Dispatch
Steven Knight, Spencer
Paolo Sorrentino, The Hand of God
Aaron Sorkin, Being the Ricardos
Best Adapted Screenplay
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Lost Daughter
Sian Heder, CODA
Stephen Karam, The Humans
—Rebecca Hall, Passing
Guillermo del Toro and Kim Morgan, Nightmare Alley
Tony Kushner, West Side Story
Becky Johnston and Roberto Bentivegna, House of Gucci
Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve and Eric Roth, Dune