2021 Oscar Nomination Predictions (January)
Oh hi. :)
It was an eventful December in the awards season as an onslaught of critics’ groups, among them the Critics Choice Awards, announced their rosters of honorees. The Power of the Dog most made a killing among these precursors, but it was a robust month too for the likes of Drive My Car and Licorice Pizza, plus acting contenders like Ariana DeBose (West Side Story) and Kristen Stewart (Spencer).
Ultimately, however, did these awards provide heaps of clarity as to who is favored to take home Oscars? Not so much.
While The Power of the Dog may indeed have racked up a plethora of wins among the critics’ groups, it remains to be seen whether this slow burn will continue its momentum into the new year, as guild awards have their say. No doubt, it will rack up a healthy stack of nominations over the coming month and once the Oscars announce in February. It’s entirely plausible, however, that other contenders, the likes of Belfast, Licorice Pizza and West Side Story - perhaps even a dark horse like CODA, too (I’m looking at you, SAG) - make a comparable or greater connection in terms of wins. (That said, Jane Campion sure does look formidable in Best Director.)
The acting categories are tougher than ever to figure out.
Stewart continues to look like the Best Actress favorite, albeit a soft one at that. What’s helping her is the lack of a clear alternative. Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos) looked like that formidable opponent until reviews for her film proved more lukewarm than expected. Instead, it may be Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter) who most puts up a fight, especially if her film can land in Best Picture, which seems a more plausible feat than Spencer making the cut.
Speaking of soft front-runners, it’s arguable at this point whether Will Smith (King Richard) is really a favorite at all in Best Actor. With Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog) faring exceedingly well among the critics’ prizes, this race for now feels like a barn burner between these two contenders.
Over in the Supporting fields, DeBose is looking awfully strong for Best Supporting Actress honors, though Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog), Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard) and Catriona Balfe (Belfast) are not to be counted out, especially if AMPAS goes gaga for one of their films.
Best Supporting Actor has seen Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog) clean up the bulk of critics’ prizes but I hesitate to label his exceedingly understated turn as a heavy favorite. If AMPAS falls head over heels for CODA, it’s easy to fathom Troy Kotsur emerging triumphant. Likewise, if they adore Belfast, Ciaran Hinds and Jamie Dornan may be in play. And if Bradley Cooper (Licorice Pizza) manages to make the cut, we’re all in for the “is this his time?!” conversation.
Down the ballot, you’ll of course see heaps of Belfast, Dune, The Power of the Dog and West Side Story and, with AMPAS announcing its shortlists for the year, I’m taking a stab at the trio of shorts categories for the first time this season.
Without further ado, here they are - updated predictions for the month of January, from most to least likely to earn a nomination. In countless cases, a contender has moved up or down from my December forecast - or dropped from its category entirely. Expect one final update in early February, just prior to Oscar nominations morning.
Bon appétit!
Best Picture
The Power of the Dog (+1)
West Side Story (+4)
Belfast (-2)
Licorice Pizza (-)
Dune (-2)
CODA (+2)
King Richard (-2)
tick, tick…BOOM! (NEW)
Don’t Look Up (-2)
The Tragedy of Macbeth (-)
—The Lost Daughter (+3)
Nightmare Alley (-1)
Being the Ricardos (-1)
Spider-Man: No Way Home (NEW)
Drive My Car (NEW)
DROPPED
C’mon C’mon (-6)
House of Gucci (-3)
Spencer (-1)
Best Director
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (-)
Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (+4)
Denis Villeneuve, Dune (-1)
Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (-)
Ryûsuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car (NEW)
—Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (-3)
Siân Heder, CODA (NEW)
Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Lost Daughter (NEW)
Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up (-2)
Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (-2)
DROPPED
Asghar Farhadi, A Hero (-6)
Pedro Almodovar, Parallel Mothers (-2)
Reinaldo Marcus Green, King Richard (-1)
Best Actress
Kristen Stewart, Spencer (-)
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (+2)
Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (+4)
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (-2)
Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (-)
—Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza (+4)
Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (+1)
Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (NEW)
Emilia Jones, CODA (NEW)
Jennifer Hudson, Respect (-4)
DROPPED
Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth (-8)
Tessa Thompson, Passing (-2)
Best Actor
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (+2)
Will Smith, King Richard (-1)
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (-1)
Andrew Garfield, tick, tick…BOOM! (+2)
Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up (-)
—
Joaquin Phoenix, C’mon C’mon (-2)
Nicolas Cage, Pig (NEW)
Clifton Collins, Jr., Jockey (-)
Cooper Hoffman, Licorice Pizza (-)
Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (-3)
DROPPED
Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley (-1)
Best Supporting Actress
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (-)
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (+6)
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (+2)
Caitriona Balfe, Belfast (-2)
Judi Dench, Belfast (-2)
—Rita Moreno, West Side Story (+1)
Ruth Negga, Passing (+2)
Marlee Matlin, CODA (-4)
Ann Dowd, Mass (+1)
Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up (-4)
Best Supporting Actor
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog (NEW)
Troy Kotsur, CODA (+5)
Ciaran Hinds, Belfast (-)
Jamie Dornan, Belfast (-3)
J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos (+4)
—Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza (-2)
Jared Leto, House of Gucci (-5)
Mike Faist, West Side Story (NEW)
Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar (-1)
Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog (NEW)
DROPPED
Richard Jenkins, The Humans (-6)
Woody Norman, C’mon C’mon (-4)
Jon Bernthal, King Richard (-1)
Best Original Screenplay
Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (+1)
Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (-1)
Adam McKay and David Sirota, Don’t Look Up (-)
Zach Baylin, King Richard (+2)
Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola, Hugo Guinness and Jason Schwartzman, The French Dispatch (+3)
—Mike Mills, C’mon C’mon (-2)
Asghar Farhadi, A Hero (-2)
Aaron Sorkin, Being the Ricardos (-1)
Pedro Almodovar, Parallel Mothers (-)
Paolo Sorrentino, The Hand of God (-)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (-)
Tony Kushner, West Side Story (+3)
Sian Heder, CODA (-1)
Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Lost Daughter (-)
Ryusuke Hamaguchi and Takamasa Oe, Drive My Car (+3)
—Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (-3)
Steven Levenson, tick, tick... BOOM! (NEW)
Rebecca Hall, Passing (-2)
Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve and Eric Roth, Dune (-2)
Guillermo del Toro and Kim Morgan, Nightmare Alley (-)
DROPPED
Stephen Karam, The Humans (-2)
Best Animated Feature
Encanto (-)
Flee (+1)
Luca (-1)
Raya and the Last Dragon (-)
Belle (-)
—Vivo (-)
The Summit of the Gods (-)
The Mitchells vs. the Machines (-)
Sing 2 (NEW)
Ron’s Gone Wrong (-1)
DROPPED
Where Is Anne Frank (-1)
Best Animated Short Film
Affairs of the Art
Bestia
Mum Is Pouring Rain
Step into the River
The Musician
—Namoo
The Windshield Wiper
Us Again
Robin Robin
Souvenir Souvenir
Best Documentary Feature
Flee (+1)
Summer Of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised) (+4)
The Rescue (-1)
The First Wave (+3)
Faya Dayi (-2)
—Writing with Fire (NEW)
Simple as Water (NEW)
Procession (-)
Billie Eilish: The World’s a Little Blurry (NEW)
Attica (-1)
DROPPED
The Lost Leonardo (-7)
Becoming Cousteau (-6)
Ailey (-1)
Best Documentary Short Subject
Águilas
Three Songs for Benazir
A Broken House
Lynching Postcards: “Token of a Great Day”
Sophie & the Baron
—Lead Me Home
Day of Rage
Camp Confidential: America’s Secret Nazis
The Queen of Basketball
The Facility
Best International Feature
Drive My Car (Japan) (+3)
Flee (Denmark) (-)
A Hero (Iran) (-2)
The Hand of God (Italy) (-1)
The Worst Person in the World (Norway) (-)
—Compartment No. 6 (Finland) (-)
I’m Your Man (Germany) (+3)
Lamb (Iceland) (NEW)
Prayers for the Stolen (Mexico) (-1)
Playground (Belgium) (NEW)
DROPPED
Titane (France) (-4)
Memoria (Colombia) (-2)
Best Live Action Short Film
The Criminals
Les Grandes Claques
Frimas
Stenofonen
You’re Dead Hélène
—The Long Goodbye
Censor of Dreams
The Dress
Distances
Under the Heavens
Best Cinematography
Greig Fraser, Dune (-)
Ari Wegner, The Power of the Dog (+1)
Janusz Kaminski, West Side Story (+2)
Haris Zambarloukos, Belfast (-2)
Bruno Delbonnel, The Tragedy of Macbeth (-1)
—Dan Laustsen, Nightmare Alley (-)
Paul Thomas Anderson and Michael Bauman, Licorice Pizza (+1)
Claire Mithon, Spencer (+1)
Robert Yeoman, The French Dispatch (-2)
Eduard Grau, Passing (-)
Best Costume Design
Paul Tazewell, West Side Story (+3)
Janty Yates, House of Gucci (-1)
Jacqueline Durran, Spencer (-)
Luis Sequeira, Nightmare Alley (+1)
Jenny Beavan, Cruella (-3)
—Jacqueline West, Dune (-)
Milena Canonero, The French Dispatch (-)
Massimo Cantini Parrini, Cyrano (-)
Susan Lyall, Being the Ricardos (-)
Kirsty Cameron, The Power of the Dog (NEW)
DROPPED
Michael O’Connor, The Electrical Life of Louis Wain (-1)
Best Film Editing
Joe Walker, Dune (-)
Peter Sciberras, The Power of the Dog (-)
Sarah Broshar and Michael Kahn, West Side Story (+3)
Andy Jurgensen, Licorice Pizza (+1)
Úna Ní Dhonghaíle, Belfast (-2)
—Tom Cross and Elliot Graham, No Time to Die (+4)
Pamela Martin, King Richard (-)
Hank Corwin, Don’t Look Up (-4)
Myron Kerstein and Andrew Weisblum, tick, tick... BOOM! (NEW)
Geraud Brisson, CODA (NEW)
DROPPED
Joseph Jett Sally, The Matrix Resurrections (-3)
Cam McLauchlin, Nightmare Alley (-2)
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
Jana Carboni, Giuliano Mariano and Göran Lundström, House of Gucci (-)
Cliona Furey and Jo-Ann MacNeil, Nightmare Alley (+5)
Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram and Justin Raleigh, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (+2)
Donald Mowat, Love Larson and Eva von Bahr, Dune (-1)
Nadia Stacey and Carolyn Cousins, Cruella (+3)
—Heba Thorisdottir and Janine Thompson, The Suicide Squad (+2)
Vera Steimberg, Merc Arceneaux, Stacey Morris and Carla Farmer, Coming 2 America (NEW)
Judy Chin and Kay Georgiou, West Side Story (NEW)
Sian Miller and Alessandro Bertolazzi, Cyrano (NEW)
Daniel Phillips, No Time to Die (NEW)
DROPPED
Frances Hannon, The French Dispatch (-7)
Teresa Hill and Ana Lozano, Being the Ricardos (-4)
The team from Spencer (-2)
Vickie Lang, Annette Field and Donald McInnes, The Electrical Life of Louis Wain (-1)
Best Original Score
Jonny Greenwood, The Power of the Dog (+1)
Hans Zimmer, Dune (-1)
Jonny Greenwood, Spencer (+1)
Alexandre Desplat, The French Dispatch (+1)
Germaine Franco, Encanto (NEW)
—Carter Burwell, The Tragedy of Macbeth (+1)
Alberto Iglesias, Parallel Mothers (NEW)
Daniel Pemberton, Being the Ricardos (+1)
Nicholas Britell, Don’t Look Up (-3)
Kris Bowers, King Richard (-)
DROPPED
Nathan Johnson, Nightmare Alley (-7)
The National, Cyrano (-3)
Best Original Song
“No Time to Die,” No Time to Die (-)
“Dos Oruguitas,” Encanto (NEW)
“Down to Joy,” Belfast (+1)
“Be Alive,” King Richard (-1)
“Here I Am (Singing My Way Home),” Respect (-)
—“Beyond the Shore,” CODA (-)
“So May We Start,” Annette (NEW)
“Somehow You Do,” Four Good Days (+2)
“Just Look Up,” Don’t Look Up (NEW)
“Right Where I Belong,” Brian Wilson: Long Promised Road (NEW)
DROPPED
“Colombia, Mi Encanto,” Encanto (-9)
“At the Automat,” The Automat (-4)
“Every Letter,” Cyrano (-3)
“Guns Go Bang,” The Harder They Fall (-2)
Best Production Design
Patrice Vermette, Richard Roberts and Zsuzsanna Sipos, Dune (-)
Adam Stockhausen and Rena DeAngelo, West Side Story (+2)
Tamara Deverell and Shane Vieau, Nightmare Alley (-)
Grant Major and Amber Richards, The Power of the Dog (+3)
Adam Stockhausen and Rena DeAngelo, The French Dispatch (-3)
—Arthur Max and Letizia Santucci, House of Gucci (-1)
Guy Hendrix-Dyas and Yesim Zolan, Spencer (+1)
Stefan Dechant and Nancy Haigh, The Tragedy of Macbeth (+1)
Jon Hutman and Ellen Brill, Being the Ricardos (-3)
Jim Clay and Claire Nia Richards, Belfast (-)
Best Sound
Mac Ruth, Mark Mangini, Theo Green, Doug Hemphill and Ron Bartlett, Dune (-)
Gary Rydstrom, Brian Chumney, Andy Nelson, Tod Maitland and Shawn Murphy, West Side Story (-)
Robert Mackenzie, Richard Flynn, Leah Katz, Tara Webb and Dave Whitehead, The Power of the Dog (NEW)
Willie Burton, Kevin O’Connell, Tony Lambert, Steven Ticknor and Vanessa Lapato, Spider-Man: No Way Home (NEW)
Simon Hayes, Oliver Tarney and Paul Massey, No Time to Die (+4)
—Paul Hsu and Todd A. Maitland, tick, tick...BOOM! (NEW)
Simon Chase, James Mather, Denise Yarde and Niv Adris, Belfast (-4)
Ethan Van Der Ryn, Erik Aadahl, Michael Barosky and Brandon Proctor, A Quiet Place Part II (-2)
Barry O’Sullivan, Dana A. Davis, Stephanie Flack, Matthias Lempert and Lars Ginzel, The Matrix Resurrections (-6)
Julian Slater, Dan Morgan, Colin Nicolson, Tim Cavagin, Last Night in Soho (NEW)
DROPPED
Oliver Tarney, Paul Massey, David Giammarco, William Miller, Daniel Birch and Stéphanie Bucher, The Last Duel (-6)
Jared Detsikes, Martin Pinsonnault, Stéphane Bergeron and Alexandra Fehrman, CODA (-4)
Nathan Robitaille, Jill Purdy, Christian Cooke, Brad Zoern and Greg Chapman, Nightmare Alley (-3)
The team from Don’t Look Up (-1)
Best Visual Effects
Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor and Gerd Nefzer, Dune (-)
Kelly Port, Chris Waegner, Scott Edelstein and Dan Sudick, Spider-Man: No Way Home (+1)
Dan Glass, Huw J Evans, Tom Debenham and J.D. Schwalm, The Matrix Resurrections (-1)
Christopher Townsend, Joe Farrell, Sean Walker, Dan Oliver, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (-)
Swen Gillberg, Bryan Grill, Nikos Kalaitzidis and Dan Sudick, Free Guy (+1)
—Charlie Noble and Chris Corbould, No Time to Die (+3)
Stephane Ceretti, Daniele Bigi, Matt Aitken and Neil Corbould, Eternals (+3)
John Desjardin, Bryan Hirota, Kevin Smith and Mike Meinardus, Godzilla vs. Kong (NEW)
Alessandro Ongaro, Sheena Duggal, Aharon Bourland and Pier Lefebvre, Ghostbusters: Afterlife (NEW)
Geoffrey Baumann, Dave Hodgins, Craig Hammack and Paul Corbould, Black Widow (NEW)
DROPPED
The team from Finch (-6)
The team from Nightmare Alley (-4)
The team from Don’t Look Up (-3)