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Despite its rather lackluster precursors run, I’m predicting a healthy eight Oscar nominations for Little Women - including Best Director.

Despite its rather lackluster precursors run, I’m predicting a healthy eight Oscar nominations for Little Women - including Best Director.

FINAL 2019 Oscar Nomination Predictions

January 09, 2020 by Andrew Carden in Oscars

Welp, here we go!

Back in September, I had the likes of The Good Liar, Waves, John Lithgow and Maggie Smith (and yes, a little Cats here and there) gracing my Oscar predictions. Now, those wannabe-contenders have faded and I have settled on my final, yes final, set of predictions for the year.

Even with the Golden Globes ceremony and, far more importantly, DGA/PGA/SAG/WGA nominations behind us, no shortage of question marks remain heading into Oscar noms morning.

Will, for instance, Little Women, despite never quite soaring during precursors season, suddenly take off at the 11 o’clock hour?

Is Bombshell, not exactly a critical or commercial smash, poised for a mere duo or trio of nominations - or is that quartet of SAG noms indicative of robust-enough industry support to land it in Best Picture?

Pedro Almodovar - can he earn not one but two nominations for Pain and Glory? And how about double noms for Cynthia Erivo (not only leading lady of Harriet but also composer on its original tune) and/or Scarlett Johansson?

Martin Scorsese, Charlize Theron, Leonardo DiCaprio and Tom Hanks - they’ve surfaced just about everywhere but are they really shoo-ins for Oscar love? And what about the folks who haven’t left a dent at all this season - can we unequivocally count out past nominees like Alan Alda and Alfre Woodard?

And then there are those contenders - the likes of The Farewell, Knives Out, Rocketman, The Two Popes and perhaps even Uncut Gems - that could go either way, making a nice, albeit modest splash in nominations or landing mostly DOA.

All that said, here are they are - my final 2019 Oscar predictions, ranked from most to least likely score recognition. In parentheses you’ll see how many slots a contender has moved up or down since my December rankings. In some cases, I have dropped a film or performer entirely (later, Richard Jewell). For the first time, I’ve also tackled all of the shorts, so no ranking changes there.

Happy reading… :)

Best Picture

  1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (+1)

  2. 1917 (+3)

  3. The Irishman (-2)

  4. Marriage Story (-1)

  5. Parasite (-1)

  6. Little Women (+4)

  7. Jojo Rabbit (+1)

  8. Joker (-2)

  9. Ford v Ferrari (-2)
    —

  10. The Farewell (+1)

  11. Knives Out (+4)

  12. Rocketman (+2)

  13. Bombshell (-4)

  14. The Two Popes (-1)

  15. Uncut Gems (NEW)

DROPPED
Richard Jewell (-4)

Best Director

  1. Sam Mendes, 1917 (+3)

  2. Bong Joon-ho, Parasite (+1)

  3. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (-1)

  4. Martin Scorsese, The Irishman (-3)

  5. Greta Gerwig, Little Women (+5)
    —

  6. Todd Phillips, Joker (-)

  7. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (+2)

  8. Pedro Almodovar, Pain and Glory (-1)

  9. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story (-4)

  10. Josh and Benny Safdie, Uncut Gems (NEW)

DROPPED
Clint Eastwood, Richard Jewell (-3)

Best Actress

  1. Renee Zellweger, Judy (-)

  2. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story (-)

  3. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women (+2)

  4. Charlize Theron, Bombshell (-1)

  5. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet (-1)
    —

  6. Awkwafina, The Farewell (+1)

  7. Lupita Nyong’o, Us (-1)

  8. Mary Kay Place, Diane (-)

  9. Alfre Woodard, Clemency (-)

  10. Jessie Buckley, Wild Rose (NEW)

DROPPED
Ana de Armas, Knives Out (-1)

Best Actor

  1. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker (+1)

  2. Adam Driver, Marriage Story (-1)

  3. Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari (-)

  4. Taron Egerton, Rocketman (+1)

  5. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory (-1)
    —

  6. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (+3)

  7. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes (-)

  8. Robert De Niro, The Irishman (-2)

  9. Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems (+1)

  10. Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name (-2)

Best Supporting Actress

  1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story (-)

  2. Margot Robbie, Bombshell (-)

  3. Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit (+3)

  4. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers (-1)

  5. Florence Pugh, Little Women (+4)
    —

  6. Zhao Shuzhen, The Farewell (-1)

  7. Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell (-3)

  8. Nicole Kidman, Bombshell (-1)

  9. Annette Bening, The Report (-1)

  10. Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (NEW)

DROPPED
Cho Yeo-jeong, Parasite (-1)

Best Supporting Actor

  1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (-)

  2. Joe Pesci, The Irishman (-)

  3. Al Pacino, The Irishman (-)

  4. Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes (-)

  5. Song Kang-ho, Parasite (-)
    —

  6. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (-)

  7. Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy (-)

  8. Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse (+2)

  9. Alan Alda, Marriage Story (-)

  10. Sam Rockwell, Richard Jewell (-2)

Best Original Screenplay

  1. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (+1)

  2. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story (-1)

  3. Bong Joon-ho and Jin Won Han, Parasite (-)

  4. Lulu Wang, The Farewell (-)

  5. Rian Johnson, Knives Out (+1)
    —

  6. Sam Mendes and Krysty Wilson-Cairns, 1917 (NEW)

  7. Pedro Almodovar, Pain and Glory (-2)

  8. Ronald Bronstein, Benny Safdie and Josh Safdie, Uncut Gems (+1)

  9. Emily Halpern, Sarah Haskins, Susanna Fogel and Katie Silberman, Booksmart (NEW)

  10. Scott Alexander and Larry Karaszewski, Dolemite Is My Name (-3)

DROPPED
Charles Randolph, Bombshell (-3)
Trey Edward Schults, Waves (-1)

Best Adapted Screenplay

  1. Steven Zaiillian, The Irishman (-)

  2. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (+2)

  3. Greta Gerwig, Little Women (-)

  4. Anthony McCarten, The Two Popes (-2)

  5. Todd Phillips and Scott Silver, Joker (-)
    —

  6. Micah Fitzerman-Blue and Noah Harpster, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (-)

  7. Destin Daniel Cretton and Andrew Lanham, Just Mercy (+2)

  8. Lorene Scafaria, Hustlers (-)

  9. Billy Ray, Richard Jewell (-2)

  10. Matthew Michael Carnahan and Mario Correa, Dark Waters (-)

Best Animated Feature

  1. Frozen II (+1)

  2. Toy Story 4 (-1)

  3. Missing Link (+1)

  4. I Lost My Body (+1)

  5. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (-2)
    —

  6. Okko’s Inn (-)

  7. Weathering with You (-)

  8. Abominable (-)

  9. Funan (-)

  10. Children of the Sea (-)

Best Documentary Feature

  1. Maiden (-)

  2. Aquarela (-)

  3. One Child Nation (-)

  4. Apollo 11 (-)

  5. American Factory (+2)
    —

  6. The Biggest Little Farm (-)

  7. Knock Down the House (+2)

  8. The Edge of Democracy (NEW)

  9. The Great Hack (NEW)

  10. Midnight Family (NEW)

DROPPED
Rolling Thunder Revue: A Bob Dylan Story by Martin Scorsese (-6)
Toni Morrison: The Pieces I Am (-3)
Pavarotti (-1)

Best International Feature

  1. Parasite (South Korea) (-)

  2. Pain and Glory (Spain) (-)

  3. Les Misérables (France) (-)

  4. The Painted Bird (Czech Republic) (+4)

  5. Honeyland (North Macedonia) (+4)
    —

  6. Atlantics (Senegal) (+1)

  7. Corpus Christi (Poland) (NEW)

  8. Truth and Justice (Estonia) (NEW)

  9. Those Who Remained (Hungary) (NEW)

  10. Beanpole (Russia) (NEW)

DROPPED
Monos (Colombia) (-7)
Our Mothers (Belgium) (-5)
Queen of Hearts (Denmark) (-2)
Dear Ex (Taiwan) (NEW)

Best Animated Short Film

  1. He Can’t Live Without Cosmos

  2. Sister

  3. Daughter

  4. Hors Piste

  5. Uncle Thomas: Accounting for the Days
    —

  6. Hair Love

  7. Memorable

  8. The Physics of Sorrow

  9. Mind My Mind

  10. Kitbull

Best Documentary Short Subject

  1. Ghosts of Sugar Land

  2. St. Louis Superman

  3. Fire in Paradise

  4. Walk Run Cha-Cha

  5. After Maria
    —

  6. Stay Close

  7. The Nightcrawlers

  8. Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl)

  9. Life Overtakes Me

  10. In the Absence

Best Live Action Short Film

  1. Refugee

  2. Saria

  3. The Neighbors’ Window

  4. Miller & Son

  5. Brotherhood
    —

  6. A Sister

  7. The Christmas Gift

  8. Little Hands

  9. Sometimes, I Think About Dying

  10. Nefta Football Club

Best Cinematography

  1. Roger Deakins, 1917 (-)

  2. Robert Richardson, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (-)

  3. Rodrigo Prieto, The Irishman (-)

  4. Lawrence Sher, Joker (-)

  5. Phedon Papamichael, Ford v Ferrari (-)
    —

  6. Kyung-Pyo Hong, Parasite (-)

  7. Claire Mathon, Portrait Of A Lady On Fire (-)

  8. Jörg Widmer, A Hidden Life (-)

  9. Jarin Blaschke, The Lighthouse (-)

  10. Mihai Mălaimare Jr., Jojo Rabbit (NEW)

DROPPED
Drew Daniels, Waves (-1)

Best Costume Design

  1. Arianne Phillips, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (-)

  2. Jacqueline Durran, Little Women (+1)

  3. Julian Day, Rocketman (+1)

  4. Ruth E. Carter, Dolemite Is My Name (-2)

  5. Jany Temime, Judy (-)
    —

  6. Mayes C. Rubeo, Jojo Rabbit (-)

  7. Anna Mary Scott Robbins, Downton Abbey (-)

  8. Christopher Peterson and Sandy Powell, The Irishman (-)

  9. Ellen Mirojnick, Maleficent: Mistress of Evil (NEW)

  10. Jacqueline Durran, 1917 (-)

DROPPED
Paco Delgado, Cats (-2)

Best Film Editing

  1. Lee Smith, 1917 (+3)

  2. Thelma Schoonmaker, The Irishman (-1)

  3. Fred Raskin, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (-)

  4. Michael McCusker, Ford v Ferrari (-2)

  5. Jeff Groth, Joker (-)
    —

  6. Jinmo Yang, Parasite (-)

  7. Ronald Bronstein and Benny Safdie, Uncut Gems (+1)

  8. Jennifer Lame, Marriage Story (+2)

  9. Tom Eagles, Jojo Rabbit (NEW)

  10. Nick Huoy, Little Women (NEW)

DROPPED
Maryann Brandon and Stefan Grube, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (-4)
John Poll, Bombshell (-2)

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

  1. Vivian Baker, Kazu Hiro and Anne Morgan, Bombshell (-)

  2. Barrie Gower, Lizzie Yianni Georgiou and Tapio Salmi, Rocketman (+5)

  3. Jeremy Woodhead, Judy (-1)

  4. Kay Georgiou and Nicki Ledermann, Joker (-1)

  5. Fríða Aradóttir and Jennifer Bell, Little Women (-1)
    —

  6. Debra Denson, Carla Farmer, Stacey Morris and Vera Steimberg Moder, Dolemite Is My Name (-)

  7. The team from Maleficent: Mistress of Evil (NEW)

  8. Elaine Browne and Anne Nosh Oldham, Downton Abbey (NEW)

  9. Janine Rath and Heba Thorisdottir, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (-1)

  10. Naomi Donne and Tristan Versluis, 1917 (NEW)

DROPPED
Belinda Anderson and Angie Wells, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (-6)
Jorge Palacios, The Two Popes (-2)
Uxue Laguardia and Niamh O’Loan, Cats (-1)

Best Original Score

  1. John Williams, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (-)

  2. Thomas Newman, 1917 (-)

  3. Alexandre Desplat, Little Women (+1)

  4. Hildur Guðnadóttir, Joker (+2)

  5. Randy Newman, Marriage Story (-2)
    —

  6. Michael Giacchino, Jojo Rabbit (+1)

  7. Marco Beltrami and Buck Sanders, Ford v Ferrari (-2)

  8. Alberto Iglesias, Pain and Glory (NEW)

  9. Daniel Pemberton, Motherless Brooklyn (+1)

  10. Alex Weston, The Farewell (NEW)

DROPPED
Nate Heller, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (-3)
Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, Waves (-2)

Best Original Song

  1. “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again,” Rocketman (+1)

  2. “Into the Unknown,” Frozen II (-1)

  3. “Stand Up,” Harriet (-)

  4. “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away,” Toy Story 4 (-)

  5. “I’m Standing with You,” Breakthrough (-)
    —

  6. “Spirit,” The Lion King (+1)

  7. “A Glass of Soju,” Parasite (NEW)

  8. “Glasgow,” Wild Rose (NEW)

  9. “Letter to My Godfather,” The Black Godfather (NEW)

  10. “Speechless,” Aladdin (-2)

DROPPED
“Beautiful Ghosts,” Cats (-5)
“Control,” Her Smell (-2)
“Daily Battles,” Motherless Brooklyn (-1)

Best Production Design

  1. Nancy Haigh and Barbara Ling, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (-)

  2. Dennis Gassner, 1917 (-)

  3. Regina Graves and Bob Shaw, The Irishman (+1)

  4. Ha-Jun Lee, Parasite (+1)

  5. Mark Friedberg and Kris Moran, Joker (+2)
    —

  6. Claire Kaufman, Little Women (+3)

  7. Judy Farr and Marcus Rowland, Rocketman (NEW)

  8. Nora Sopková and Ra Vincent, Jojo Rabbit (-)

  9. Rick Carter and Kevin Jenkins, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (-6)

  10. David Crank and David Schlesinger, Knives Out (-)

DROPPED
Eve Stewart, Cats (-5)

Best Sound Editing

  1. The team from 1917 (-)

  2. Eric A. Norris and Donald Sylvester, Ford v Ferrari (-)

  3. Shannon Mills and Samson Neslund, Avengers: Endgame (-)

  4. Alan Robert Murray, Joker (+1)

  5. Harry Cohen and Leo Marcil, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (+1)
    —

  6. Matthew Collinge and Danny Sheehan, Rocketman (NEW)

  7. David Acord and Matthew Wood, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (-3)

  8. Philip Stockton, The Irishman (-)

  9. Ai-Ling Lee and Tobias Poppe, Jojo Rabbit (NEW)

  10. Davide Anselmi and Frank E. Eulner, The Lion King (-)

DROPPED
Grant Elder, Ad Astra (-3)
The team from Cats (-2)

Best Sound Mixing

  1. Scott Millan, Mark Taylor and Stuart Wilson, 1917 (-)

  2. Richard Bullock, Jr., Paul Massey and Steven Morrow, Ford v Ferrari (-)

  3. Christian P. Minkler, Michael Minkler and Mark Ulano, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (-)

  4. Tod A. Maitland, Tom Ozanich and Dean Zupancic, Joker (+3)

  5. Tom Johnson, Juan Peralta and John Pritchett, Avengers: Endgame (-1)
    —

  6. Matthew Collinge, John Hayes and Mike Prestwood Smith, Rocketman (-)

  7. Tom Fleischman, Eugene Gearty and Tod A. Maitland, The Irishman (+1)

  8. Tae-young Choi, Eun Hee-soo and Young Kang Hye, Parasite (NEW)

  9. Ben Burtt and Andy Nelson, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (-4)

  10. Petr Forejt, Ai-Ling Lee and Andy Nelson, Jojo Rabbit (-)

DROPPED
Simon Hayes, Cats (-2)

Best Visual Effects

  1. Dan DeLeeuw, Russell Earl, Kelly Port and Daniel Sudick, Avengers: Endgame (-)

  2. Roger Guyett and Dominic Tuohy, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (-)

  3. Greg Butler, Guillaume Rocheron and Dominic Tuohy, 1917 (+4)

  4. Robert Legato, Elliot Newman and Adam Valdez, The Lion King (-)

  5. Mark Hawker, Bryan Hirota and Bill Westenhofer, Gemini Man (+1)
    —

  6. The team from Alita: Battle Angel (NEW)

  7. Pablo Helman and Jiwoong Kim, The Irishman (-4)

  8. Christopher Townsend and Daniel Sudick, Captain Marvel (NEW)

  9. The team from Terminator: Dark Fate (NEW)

  10. The team from Cats (-1)

DROPPED
Christopher Downs, Jiwoong Kim and Bradley Parker, Ad Astra (-6)
The team from Ford v Ferrari (-3)
Romain Arnoux, Louis Morin and Jean-François Ferland, The Aeronauts (-1)

January 09, 2020 /Andrew Carden
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