2019 Oscar Nomination Predictions (December)
Funny how precursor season at once adds clarity and question marks to the Oscar race.
A few things seem certain - The Irishman, Marriage Story (even with its SAG Ensemble snub), Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and Parasite are poised for heaps of love come nominations morning, including Best Picture noms. Among actors, the likes of Scarlett Johansson, Renee Zellweger, Adam Driver, Joaquin Phoenix, Laura Dern, Brad Pitt and the two Irishman fellas (Al Pacino & Joe Pesci) appear awfully secure for recognition - their absence would prove a true jaw-dropper.
Beyond these contenders, however, I feel at least some sense of doubt.
1917, for instance, seems on paper like the sort of war picture that should earn at least half a dozen Oscar noms, including Best Picture and a pile of tech prizes, but hasn’t exactly set the awards season ablaze thus far - nor has Little Women, which has fabulous reviews and should prove a grand commercial success, but mostly floundered at the Globes and outright flatlined with SAG. And then there are the polarizing Jojo Rabbit and Joker, which seem to have enough passion to land some major noms but could just as easily fall short of the finish line for a Best Picture nom. Contenders like Bombshell and Richard Jewell have seen rather lukewarm responses but shouldn’t be underestimated.
For Best Director, don’t count out a dark horse like Pedro Almodovar, even if he’s largely been a no-show thus far. Clint Eastwood is, per usual, lurking around the corner, as is Joker’s Todd Phillips, whose film could make anywhere from a rather modest to quite major splash in nominations. The screenwriting categories too could offer some surprises, though I’m feeling reasonably confident about my quintet in Adapted Screenplay.
And then there are the actors. I have to say, I’m not even all that confident the likes of Charlize Theron and Jennifer Lopez are necessarily the shoo-ins they’re generally being labeled as. In Best Actress, I think we could still see the brilliant Alfre Woodard come out of nowhere for a nom and also ought to keep an eye on LAFCA Best Actress winner Mary Kay Place, a beloved character actor at last having her moment in the awards season spotlight.
Best Actor is an outright shitshow and Best Supporting Actress/Actor are also packed with uncertainty. We’ll never know if Kathy Bates would’ve been a SAG nominee had she not been inexplicably placed in Lead there. Likewise, we can’t entirely count out a contender like Alan Alda, who so far hasn’t emerged anywhere…but also didn’t see much precursor affection for The Aviator, which ultimately landed him his first career Oscar nom.
That said, here are my updated Oscar predictions for the month of December. In parentheses you’ll see how many slots a contender has moved up or down since my November rankings. In many cases, I have dropped a film or performer entirely (see ya, Dame Maggie). While I won’t yet tackle the shorts, I have for the first time taken a stab at Best Original Song…not exactly a zoo of a category but also not a cinch to narrow down to five.
Enjoy! :)
Best Picture
The Irishman (+1)
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (-1)
Marriage Story (-)
Parasite (-)
1917 (+2)
Joker (+7)
Ford v Ferrari (-1)
Jojo Rabbit (+3)
—Bombshell (-4)
Little Women (-1)
The Farewell (-3)
Richard Jewell (NEW)
The Two Popes (-4)
Rocketman (-3)
Knives Out (NEW)
DROPPED
Waves (-2)
Cats (-1)
Best Director
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman (-)
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (-)
Bong Joon-ho, Parasite (+1)
Sam Mendes, 1917 (+2)
Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story (-2)
—Todd Phillips, Joker (NEW)
Pedro Almodovar, Pain and Glory (-2)
Clint Eastwood, Richard Jewell (NEW)
Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (-)
Greta Gerwig, Little Women (-1)
DROPPED
Jay Roach, Bombshell (-4)
Lulu Wang, The Farewell (-1)
Best Actress
Renee Zellweger, Judy (-)
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story (+1)
Charlize Theron, Bombshell (-1)
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet (+2)
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women (-1)
—Lupita Nyong’o, Us (+1)
Awkwafina, The Farewell (+1)
Mary Kay Place, Diane (+2)
Alfre Woodard, Clemency (-4)
Ana de Armas, Knives Out (NEW)
DROPPED
Jodie Turner-Smith, Queen & Slim (-2)
Best Actor
Adam Driver, Marriage Story (-)
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker (+3)
Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari (+1)
Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory (-1)
Taron Egerton, Rocketman (+4)
—Robert De Niro, The Irishman (-)
Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes (-5)
Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name (-)
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (-2)
Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems (-)
Best Supporting Actress
Laura Dern, Marriage Story (-)
Margot Robbie, Bombshell (+4)
Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers (+4)
Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell (NEW)
Zhao Shuzhen, The Farewell (+5)
—Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit (NEW)
Nicole Kidman, Bombshell (-4)
Annette Bening, The Report (-6)
Florence Pugh, Little Women (-)
Cho Yeo-jeong, Parasite (NEW)
DROPPED
Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey (-7)
Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (-5)
Jennifer Hudson, Cats (-3)
Best Supporting Actor
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (+1)
Joe Pesci, The Irishman (+2)
Al Pacino, The Irishman (-1)
Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes (-1)
Song Kang-ho, Parasite (+4)
—Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (+1)
Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy (+3)
Sam Rockwell, Richard Jewell (NEW)
Alan Alda, Marriage Story (-4)
Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse (NEW)
DROPPED
John Lithgow, Bombshell (-5)
Sterling K. Brown, Waves (-3)
Best Original Screenplay
Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story (-)
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (-)
Bong Joon-ho and Jin Won Han, Parasite (+1)
Lulu Wang, The Farewell (+1)
Pedro Almodovar, Pain and Glory (-2)
—Rian Johnson, Knives Out (NEW)
Scott Alexander and Larry Karaszewski, Dolemite Is My Name (+1)
Charles Randolph, Bombshell (-2)
Ronald Brownstein, Ben Safdie and Josh Safdie, Uncut Gems (NEW)
Trey Edward Schults, Waves (-3)
DROPPED
Scott Z. Burns, The Report (-2)
Jez Butterworth, John-Henry Butterworth, Jason Keller and James Mangold, Ford v Ferrari (-1)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Steven Zaiillian, The Irishman (-)
Frank Cottrell-Boyce and Anthony McCarten, The Two Popes (-)
Greta Gerwig, Little Women (-)
Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (+1)
Todd Phillips and Scott Silver, Joker (+3)
—Micah Fitzerman-Blue and Noah Harpster, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (-2)
Billy Ray, Richard Jewell (NEW)
Lorene Scafaria, Hustlers (-2)
Destin Daniel Cretton and Andrew Lanham, Just Mercy (-)
Matthew Michael Carnahan and Mario Correa, Dark Waters (-3)
DROPPED
Julian Fellowes, Downton Abbey (-1)
Best Animated Feature
Toy Story 4 (-)
Frozen II (-)
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (-)
Missing Link (-)
I Lost My Body (+1)
—Okko’s Inn (-1)
Weathering with You (NEW)
Abominable (-)
Funan (-2)
Children of the Sea (-1)
DROPPED
A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon (-1)
Best Documentary Feature
Maiden (-)
Aquarela (-)
One Child Nation (-)
Apollo 11 (-)
Rolling Thunder Revue: A Bob Dylan Story by Martin Scorsese (-)
—The Biggest Little Farm (+2)
American Factory (-)
Toni Morrison: The Pieces I Am (+1)
Knock Down the House (-3)
Pavarotti (-)
Best International Feature
Parasite (South Korea) (-)
Pain and Glory (Spain) (-)
Les Misérables (France) (-)
Monos (Colombia) (+1)
The Painted Bird (Czech Republic) (-1)
—Our Mothers (Belgium) (-)
Atlantics (Senegal) (+2)
Honeyland (Macedonia) (-1)
Queen of Hearts (Denmark) (-1)
Dear Ex (Taiwan) (NEW)
DROPPED
Joy (Austria) (-1)
Best Cinematography
Roger Deakins, 1917 (+2)
Robert Richardson, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (-1)
Rodrigo Prieto, The Irishman (-1)
Lawrence Sher, Joker (+3)
Phedon Papamichael, Ford v Ferrari (-1)
—Kyung-Pyo Hong, Parasite (+3)
Claire Mathon, Portrait Of A Lady On Fire (NEW)
Jörg Widmer, A Hidden Life (-3)
Jarin Blaschke, The Lighthouse (-3)
Drew Daniels, Waves (-2)
DROPPED
Christopher Ross, Cats (-1)
Best Costume Design
Arianne Phillips, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (-)
Ruth E. Carter, Dolemite Is My Name (+2)
Jacqueline Durran, Little Women (-)
Julian Day, Rocketman (+1)
Jany Temime, Judy (-3)
—Mayes C. Rubeo, Jojo Rabbit (+3)
Anna Mary Scott Robbins, Downton Abbey (+1)
Christopher Peterson and Sandy Powell, The Irishman (-2)
Paco Delgado, Cats (-1)
Jacqueline Durran, 1917 (-)
Best Film Editing
Thelma Schoonmaker, The Irishman (-)
Michael McCusker, Ford v Ferrari (+1)
Fred Raskin, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (-1)
Lee Smith, 1917 (-)
Jeff Groth, Joker (+4)
—Jinmo Yang, Parasite (+1)
Maryann Brandon and Stefan Grube, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (+1)
Ronald Bronstein and Ben Safdie, Uncut Gems (NEW)
John Poll, Bombshell (-4)
Jennifer Lame, Marriage Story (-4)
DROPPED
Melanie Oliver, Cats (-1)
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
Vivian Baker, Kazu Hiro and Anne Morgan, Bombshell (-)
Jeremy Woodhead, Judy (-)
Kay Georgiou and Nicki Ledermann, Joker (+3)
Fríða Aradóttir and Jennifer Bell, Little Women (+5)
Belinda Anderson and Angie Wells, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (-2)
—Debra Denson, Carla Farmer, Stacey Morris and Vera Steimberg Moder, Dolemite Is My Name (-1)
Barrie Gower, Lizzie Yianni Georgiou and Tapio Salmi, Rocketman (-)
Janine Rath and Heba Thorisdottir, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (-)
Jorge Palacios, The Two Popes (+1)
Uxue Laguardia and Niamh O’Loan, Cats (-6)
Best Original Score
John Williams, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (-)
Thomas Newman, 1917 (+3)
Randy Newman, Marriage Story (+1)
Alexandre Desplat, Little Women (-1)
Marco Beltrami and Buck Sanders, Ford v Ferrari (-3)
—Hildur Guðnadóttir, Joker (+3)
Michael Giacchino, Jojo Rabbit (+1)
Nate Heller, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (-1)
Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, Waves (-3)
Daniel Pemberton, Motherless Brooklyn (NEW)
DROPPED
Scott Bomar, Dolemite Is My Name (-1)
Best Original Song
“Into the Unknown,” Frozen II
“(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again,” Rocketman
“Stand Up,” Harriet
“I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away,” Toy Story 4
“I’m Standing with You,” Breakthrough
—“Beautiful Ghosts,” Cats
“Spirit,” The Lion King
“Speechless,” Aladdin
“Control,” Her Smell
“Daily Battles,” Motherless Brooklyn
Best Production Design
Nancy Haigh and Barbara Ling, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (-)
Dennis Gassner, 1917 (+1)
Rick Carter and Kevin Jenkins, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (-1)
Regina Graves and Bob Shaw, The Irishman (-)
Ha-Jun Lee, Parasite (-)
—Eve Stewart, Cats (-)
Mark Friedberg and Kris Moran, Joker (NEW)
Nora Sopková and Ra Vincent, Jojo Rabbit (-)
Claire Kaufman, Little Women (-2)
David Crank and David Schlesinger, Knives Out (NEW)
DROPPED
François Audouy and Peter Lando, Ford v Ferrari (-2)
David Hindle and Christian Huband, The Aeronauts (-1)
Best Sound Editing
The team from 1917 (+2)
Eric A. Norris and Donald Sylvester, Ford v Ferrari (-)
Shannon Mills and Samson Neslund, Avengers: Endgame (+1)
David Acord and Matthew Wood, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (-3)
Alan Robert Murray, Joker (NEW)
—Harry Cohen and Leo Marcil, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (-1)
Philip Stockton, The Irishman (-)
Grant Elder, Ad Astra (-)
The team from Cats (-3)
Davide Anselmi and Frank E. Eulner, The Lion King (NEW)
DROPPED
Saoirse Christopherson and Lee Walpole, The Aeronauts (-2)
Teresa Eckton, J.R. Grubbs, Kimberly Patrick and Dee Selby, Captain Marvel (-1)
Best Sound Mixing
Scott Millan, Mark Taylor and Stuart Wilson, 1917 (+3)
Richard Bullock, Jr., Paul Massey and Steven Morrow, Ford v Ferrari (+1)
Christian P. Minkler, Michael Minkler and Mark Ulano, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (-1)
Tom Johnson, Juan Peralta and John Pritchett, Avengers: Endgame (+2)
Ben Burtt and Andy Nelson, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (-4)
—Matthew Collinge, John Hayes and Mike Prestwood Smith, Rocketman (+2)
Tod A. Maitland, Tom Ozanich and Dean Zupancic, Joker (NEW)
Tom Fleischman, Eugene Gearty and Tod A. Maitland, The Irishman (-1)
Simon Hayes, Cats (-4)
Petr Forejt, Ai-Ling Lee and Andy Nelson, Jojo Rabbit (NEW)
DROPPED
Stuart Hilliker and Lee Walpole, The Aeronauts (-2)
Paul Cotterell and Johnathan Rush, Judy (-1)
Best Visual Effects
Dan DeLeeuw, Russell Earl, Kelly Port and Daniel Sudick, Avengers: Endgame (+1)
Roger Guyett and Dominic Tuohy, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (-1)
Pablo Helman and Jiwoong Kim, The Irishman (+1)
Robert Legato, Elliot Newman and Adam Valdez, The Lion King (-1)
Christopher Downs, Jiwoong Kim and Bradley Parker, Ad Astra (+3)
—Mark Hawker, Bryan Hirota and Bill Westenhofer, Gemini Man (-)
The team from 1917 (-)
The team from Ford v Ferrari (NEW)
The team from Cats (-4)
Romain Arnoux, Louis Morin and Jean-François Ferland, The Aeronauts (-1)
DROPPED
Daniel Sudick and Christopher Townsend, Captain Marvel (-2)