FINAL 2018 Oscar Nomination Predictions

Here we go - FINAL Oscar nomination predictions!

Since my last thoughts in December, a ton has gone down in the awards season - Golden Globes were handed out, as were BAFTA and key guild nominations. Next week, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will offer its two cents on the finest of 2018 cinema and, not long after that, BAFTA and the guilds will announce their winners. As a reminder, this year's Oscar ceremony falls on February 24.

So, with that said, here is my final hunch. In parentheses you will see how many slots a contender has moved up or down since my December rankings. In some cases, I have eliminated a film or performer entirely.

Enjoy and, as always, feel free to comment with your own thoughts as well.

Best Picture

1. Roma (-)

2. A Star Is Born (-)

3. The Favourite (+2)

4. BlacKkKlansman (-1)

5. Vice (+3)

6. Green Book (-2)

7. Bohemian Rhapsody (+5)

8. Black Panther (-1)

9. First Man (-)
   —

10. If Beale Street Could Talk (-4)

11. Crazy Rich Asians (-)

12. Cold War (NEW)

13. Mary Poppins Returns (-3)

14. A Quiet Place (-)

15. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (-2)

DROPPED
Eighth Grade (-1)

Best Director

1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (-)

2. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (+1)

3. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (-1)

4. Adam McKay, Vice (+3)

5. Damien Chazelle, First Man (-)
   —

6. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (-)

7. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (-2)

8. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (-)

9. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (-)

10. Paweł Pawlikowski, Cold War (NEW)

DROPPED
Debra Granik, Leave No Trace (-1)

Best Leading Actor

1. Christian Bale, Vice (+1)

2. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (+1)

3. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (-2)

4. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (-)

5. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity's Gate (+1)
   —

6. John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman (+1)

7. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (-2)

8. Ryan Gosling, First Man (+1)

9. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased (-1)

10. Stephan James, If Beale Street Could Talk (NEW)

DROPPED
Robert Redford, The Old Man and the Gun (-1)

Best Leading Actress

1. Glenn Close, The Wife (+2)

2. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (-1)

3. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (-1)

4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (-)

5. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (+5)
   —

6. Viola Davis, Widows (NEW)

7. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (-2)

8. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (-2)

9. Toni Collette, Hereditary (-2)

10. Rosamund Pike, A Private War (-1)

DROPPED
Regina Hall, Support the Girls (-3)

Best Supporting Actor

1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (-)

2. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (-)

3. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (-)

4. Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born (-)

5. Sam Rockwell, Vice (-)
   —

6. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (-)

7. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (-)

8. Steven Yeun, Burning (-)

9. Brian Tyree Henry, If Beale Street Could Talk (NEW)

10. John Krasinski, A Quiet Place (NEW)

DROPPED
Hugh Grant, Paddington 2 (-2)
Russell Hornsby, The Hate U Give (-1)

Best Supporting Actress

1. Emma Stone, The Favourite (-)

2. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (-)

3. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (+1)

4. Amy Adams, Vice (-1)

5. Claire Foy, First Man (+2)
   —

6. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (-1)

7. Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place (+1)

8. Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots (-2)

9. Linda Cardellini, Green Book (NEW)

10. Thomasin Harcourt McKenzie, Leave No Trace (-1)

DROPPED
Marina De Tavira, Roma (-1)

Best Original Screenplay

1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (-)

2. Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara, The Favourite (-)

3. Adam McKay, Vice (+1)

4. Brian Hayes Currie, Peter Farrelly and Nick Vallelonga, Green Book (-1)

5. Paweł Pawlikowski, Janusz Głowacki and Piotr Borkowsk, Cold War (NEW)
   —

6. Bo Burnham, Eighth Grade (-1)

7. Anthony McCarten and Peter Morgan, Bohemian Rhapsody (NEW)

8. Paul Schrader, First Reformed (-2)

9. Scott Beck, John Krasinski and Bryan Woods, A Quiet Place (-1)

10. Chloe Zhao, The Rider (-)

DROPPED
Joel and Ethan Coen, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (-3)
Jihad Hojeily, Michelle Keserwany, Nadine Labaki and Khaled Mouzanar, Capernaum (-2)

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (+1)

2. Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters, Irene Mecchi, Stephen J. Rivele, Eric Roth and Christopher Wilkinson, A Star Is Born (+1)

3. Spike Lee, David Rabinowitz, Charlie Wachtel and Kevin Willmott, BlacKkKlansman (-2)

4. Jon Robert Cole and Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (+3)

5. Peter Chiarelli and Adele Lim, Crazy Rich Asians (+1)
   —

6. Peter Fellows, Armando Iannucci, Ian Martin, Fabien Nury and David Schneider, The Death of Stalin (NEW)

7. Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (-3)

8. Debra Granik and Anne Rosellini, Leave No Trace (-3)

9. Josh Singer, First Man (-1)

10. Jane Anderson, The Wife (NEW)

DROPPED
Audrey Wells, The Hate U Give (-2)
Joel Edgerton, Boy Erased (-1)

Best Animated Feature

1. Isle of Dogs (+2)

2. Spider-Man: Into the Spider Verse (-)

3. Ralph Breaks the Internet: Wreck-It-Ralph 2 (-)

4. Incredibles 2 (-3)

5. Mirai (-)
   —

6. Smallfoot (+3)

7. Ruben Brandt, Collector (-)

8. Early Man (NEW)

9. Night Is Short, Walk on Girl (-1)

10. Lu Over the Wall (-4)

DROPPED
Fireworks (-1)

Best Documentary Feature

1. RBG (-)

2. Free Solo (-)

3. Minding the Gap (-)

4. Won’t You Be My Neighbor? (-)

5. Shirkers (NEW)
   —

6. Three Identical Strangers (-1)

7. The Silence of Others (NEW)

8. On Her Shoulders (NEW)

9. The Distant Barking of Dogs (NEW)

10. Dark Money (NEW)

DROPPED
The Oslo Diaries (-5)
King in the Wilderness (-4)
The Price of Everything (-3)
They’ll Love Me When I’m Dead (-2)
Maria By Callas: In Her Own Words (-1)

Best Foreign Language Film

1. Roma (Mexico) (-)

2. Cold War (Poland) (+3)

3. Never Look Away (Germany) (+1)

4. Capernaum (Lebanon) (-2)

5. Shoplifters (Japan) (-2)
   —

6. Birds of Passage (Colombia) (NEW)

7. Burning (South Korea) (-)

8. The Guilty (Denmark) (NEW)

9. Ayka (Kazakhstan) (NEW)

DROPPED
Border (Sweden) (-5)
Girl (Belgium) (-4)
Sunset (Hungary) (-3)
Ghost Hunting (Palestine) (-1)

Best Cinematography

1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (-)

2. Linus Sandgren, First Man (+3)

3. Matthew Libatique, A Star Is Born (-1)

4. Rachel Morrison, Black Panther (-)

5. Caleb Deschanel, Never Look Away (+4)
   —

6. Łukasz Żal, Cold War (NEW)

7. Robbie Ryan, The Favourite (-4)

8. James Laxton, If Beale Street Could Talk (-2)

9. Dion Beebe, Mary Poppins Returns (-2)

10. Bruno Delbonnel, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (-2)

DROPPED
Christopher Aoun, Capernaum (-1)

Best Costume Design

1. Sandy Powell, The Favourite (-)

2. Ruth E. Carter, Black Panther (+1)

3. Sandy Powell, Mary Poppins Returns (-1)

4. Colleen Atwood, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (-)

5. Mary Vogt, Crazy Rich Asians (+2)
   —

6. Julian Day, Bohemian Rhapsody (+1)

7. Alexandra Byrne, Mary Queen of Scots (-2)

8. Andrea Flesch, Colette (-2)

9. Mary Zophres, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (+1)

10. Caroline Eselin, If Beale Street Could Talk (-1)

Best Film Editing

1. Alfonso Cuaron and Adam Gough, Roma (-)

2. Tom Cross, First Man (+1)

3. Jay Cassidy, A Star Is Born (-1)

4. Debbie Berman and Michael P. Shawver, Black Panther (-)

5. Hank Corwin, Vice (+5)
   —

6. Barry Alexander Brown, BlacKkKlansman (-1)

7. John Ottman, Bohemian Rhapsody (NEW)

8. Sam Sneade, The Favourite (+1)

9. Patrick J. Don Vito, Green Book (-3)

10. Wyatt Smith, Mary Poppins Returns (-3)

DROPPED
Joi McMillon and Nat Sanders, If Beale Street Could Talk (-3)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Vice (-)

2. Black Panther (+2)

3. Bohemian Rhapsody (NEW)
   —

4. Stan and Ollie (+1)

5. Mary Queen of Scots (-)

6. Border (NEW)

7. Suspiria (+1)

DROPPED
The Favourite (-9)
Mary Poppins Returns (-8)
Deadpool 2 (-4)
A Star Is Born (-2)
Colette (-1)

Best Original Score

1. Justin Hurwitz, First Man (-)

2. Alexandre Desplat, Isle of Dogs (+2)

3. Nicholas Britell, If Beale Street Could Talk (-)

4. Terence Blanchard, BlacKkKlansman (+1)

5. Carter Burwell, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (+1)
   —

6. Ludwig Goransson, Black Panther (+1)

7. Marc Shaiman and Scott Wittman, Mary Poppins Returns (-5)

8. Marco Beltrami, A Quiet Place (+1)

9. Nicholas Britell, Vice (NEW)

10. James Newton Howard, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (-)

DROPPED
Michael Giacchino, Incredibles 2 (-3)

Best Original Song

1. “Shallow,” A Star Is Born (-)

2. “All the Stars,” Black Panther (-)

3. “I’ll Fight,” RBG (+2)

4. “Trip a Little Light Fantastic,” Mary Poppins Returns (+4)

5. “Keep Reachin’,” Quincy (NEW)
   —

6. “The Place Where Lost Things Go,” Mary Poppins Returns (-3)

7. “Girl in the Movies,” Dumplin’ (+1)

8. “Revelation,” Boy Erased (-1)

9. “When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings,” The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (NEW)

10. “We Won’t Move,” The Hate U Give (NEW)

DROPPED
“Gravity,” Free Solo (-7)
“Requiem for a Private War,” A Private War (-5)
“Time for Change,” On the Basis of Sex (-1)

Best Production Design

1. Fiona Crombie and Alice Felton, The Favourite (-)

2. Hannah Beachler and Jay Hart, Black Panther (+2)

3. John Myrhe and Gordon Sim, Mary Poppins Returns (-)

4. Nathan Crowley and Kathy Lucas, First Man (NEW)

5. Paul Harrod and Adam Stockhausen, Isle of Dogs (+1)
   —

6. Gina Cromwell and James Merifield, Mary Queen of Scots (-2)

7. Stuart Craig and Anna Pinnock, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (-2)

8. Eugenio Caballero and Barbara Enriquez, Roma (NEW)

9. Mark Friedberg and Kris Moran, If Beale Street Could Talk (-2)

10. Jess Gonchor and Nancy Haigh, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (-)

DROPPED
Michael Carlin, Lisa Chugg and Nora Talmaier, Colette (-3)
Lisa Chung and Guy Hendrix Dyas, The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (-2)

Best Sound Editing

1. Ai-Ling Lee and Mildred Iatrou Morgan, First Man (+3)

2. Alan Robert Murray, A Star Is Born (-1)

3. Steve Boeddeker and Benjamin A. Burtt, Black Panther (-1)

4. John Warhurst, Bohemian Rhapsody (+3)

5. Erik Aadahl and Ethan Van Der Ryn, A Quiet Place (+1)
   —

6. James H. Mather, Mission: Impossible - Fallout (NEW)

7. Shannon Mills and Daniel Laurie, Avengers: Infinity War (NEW)

8. Eugene Gearty and Renee Tondelli, Mary Poppins Returns (-5)

9. Sergio Diaz and Skip Lievsay, Roma (-2)

10. Philip Stockman, BlacKkKlansman (-)

DROPPED
Richard Hymns and Gary Rydstrom, Ready Player One (-3)
Cora Elliott and Ren Klyce, Incredibles 2 (-2)

Best Sound Mixing

1. Steve Morrow, Tom Ozanich, Jason Ruder and Dean Zupancic, A Star Is Born (-)

2. Mary H. Ellis, Ai-Ling Lee, Frank A. Montano and Jon Taylor, First Man (+3)

3. Steve Boeddecker, Peter Devlin and Brandon Proctor, Black Panther (-1)

4. Jason Casali, Tim Cavagin and Paul Massey, Bohemian Rhapsody (-)

5. Simon Hayes, Micheal Keller and Mike Prestwood Smith, Mary Poppins Returns (-2)
   —

6. Michael Barosky and Brandon Proctor, A Quiet Place (-)

7. Jose Antonio Garcia, Craig Henighan and Skip Lievsay, Roma (-)

8. Christopher Munro, Mike Prestwood Smith and Gilbert Lake, Mission: Impossible - Fallout (NEW)

9. Tom Johnson, Juan Peralta and John Pritchett, Avengers: Infinity War (-)

10. Drew Kunin and Tom Fleischman, BlacKkKlansman (NEW)

DROPPED
Vince Caro, Nathan Nance and Michael Semanick, Incredibles 2 (-2)
Chris Munro, Andy Nelson and Gary Ruydstrom, Ready Player One (-1)

Best Visual Effects

1. First Man (+1)

2. Avengers: Infinity War (-1)

3. Black Panther (-2)

4. Mary Poppins Returns (-1)

5. Solo: A Star Wars Story (NEW)
   —

6. Ready Player One (-1)

7. Ant-Man and the Wasp (NEW)

8. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (NEW)

9. Welcome to Marwen (NEW)

10. Christopher Robin (NEW)

DROPPED
Isle of Dogs (-6)
Aquaman (-4)
A Quiet Place (-3)
Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (-2)
Incredibles 2 (-1)