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Alfonso Cuaron’s Roma

Alfonso Cuaron’s Roma

2018 Oscar Nomination Predictions (September)

September 11, 2018 by Andrew Carden in Oscars

Aloha, fellow film fans!

Over the past two months, since my first Oscar nomination predictions for the year, an abundance of events have gone down in what is shaping up to be yet another dizzying awards season:

  • Trailers dropped for a plethora of contenders, among them - At Eternity’s Gate; Ben Is Back; Boy Erased; The Favourite; First Man; The Front Runner; Green Book; If Beale Street Could Talk; Mary Queen of Scots; Mid '90s; On the Basis of Sex; The Other Side of the Wind; Peterloo; Roma; and What They Had.

  • The Telluride, Toronto and Venice Film Festivals bolstered the Oscar campaigns of several pictures, including The Favourite, First Man, If Beale Street Could Talk, Roma and A Star Is Born, all earning stellar notices. Generating a more mixed response were Beautiful Boy, Boy Erased, Destroyer, The Front Runner and Peterloo.

  • Actress Cicely Tyson, composer Lalo Schifrin, producers Kathleen Kennedy and Frank Marshall and publicist Martin Levy were named this year’s recipients of the Academy’s Governors Awards.

  • A handful of early-release Oscar hopefuls, among them BlacKkKlansman, Eighth Grade and The Wife, opened to glowing reviews. Will this finally be the year for Spike Lee and/or Glenn Close?

  • Crazy Rich Asians emerged a commercial phenomenon, spending four consecutive weeks atop the domestic box office and earning splendid critical notices to boot. Could this be a dark horse for a Best Picture nomination? (I wasn't terribly fond of the film but could certainly hop aboard a Michelle Yeoh train.)

  • Oh, and (sigh) the Academy proposed three key changes to the Oscars - the introduction of a so-called "popular film" category (which, thankfully, for this year at least, was later nixed); a three-hour telecast that will have certain categories inexplicably presented during commercial breaks (which, unfortunately, remains the case); and an earlier air date for the telecast, February 9.

No doubt, of course, I'm overlooking something of significance that recently transpired.

With all of that said, please see below my latest set of Oscar predictions, for the month of September. In parentheses you will find how many slots a contender has moved up or down since my last rankings. In many cases, I have dropped a film or performer entirely. Note that I’m still holding off in predictions for Best Original Song and the shorts.

Enjoy and, as always, feel free to comment with your own thoughts as well!

Best Picture

  1. First Man (-)

  2. A Star Is Born (+3)

  3. If Beale Street Could Talk (-)

  4. Roma (NEW)

  5. The Favourite (+4)

  6. Widows (+1)

  7. BlacKkKlansman (-)

  8. Vice (+5)
    —

  9. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (NEW)

  10. The Incredibles 2 (NEW)

  11. Green Book (NEW)

  12. Mary Queen of Scots (-8)

  13. Boy Erased (-6)

  14. Crazy Rich Asians (NEW)

  15. Black Panther (-3)

DROPPED
Beautiful Boy (-14)
Peterloo (-6)
On the Basis of Sex (-5)
The Front Runner (-2)
The Other Side of the Wind (-1)

Best Director

  1. Damien Chazelle, First Man (-)

  2. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (NEW)

  3. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (-1)

  4. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (-1)

  5. Steve McQueen, Widows (-1)
    —

  6. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (-1)

  7. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (+2)

  8. Adam McKay, Vice (NEW)

  9. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (-1)

  10. Orson Welles, The Other Side of the Wind (NEW)

DROPPED
Mike Leigh, Peterloo (-5)
Felix Van Groeningen, Beautiful Boy (-4)
Joel Edgerton, Boy Erased (-1)

Best Leading Actor

  1. Ryan Gosling, First Man (+1)

  2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (+1)

  3. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity's Gate (+3)

  4. Robert Redford, The Old Man and the Gun (+1)

  5. Christian Bale, Vice (+2)
    —

  6. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased (-2)

  7. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (NEW)

  8. Steve Carell, Beautiful Boy (-7)

  9. Stephan James, If Beale Street Could Talk (-)

  10. John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman (-)

DROPPED
Hugh Jackman, The Front Runner (-3)

Best Leading Actress

  1. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (+8)

  2. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (NEW)

  3. Viola Davis, Widows (-1)

  4. Glenn Close, The Wife (-2)

  5. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (+2)
    —

  6. Emma Stone, The Favourite (+3)

  7. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (NEW)

  8. Kiki Layne, If Beale Street Could Talk (-4)

  9. Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots (-8)

  10. Toni Collette, Hereditary (-4)

DROPPED
Felicity Jones, On the Basis of Sex (-5)
Charlize Theron, Tully (-1)

Best Supporting Actor

  1. Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born (+1)

  2. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (-1)

  3. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows (+2)

  4. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (NEW)

  5. Sam Rockwell, Vice (+1)
    —

  6. Russell Crowe, Boy Erased (-2)

  7. John C. Reilly, Stan and Ollie (NEW)

  8. Ben Foster, Leave No Trace (NEW)

  9. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (-6)

  10. Robert Forster, What They Had (-)

DROPPED
J.K. Simmons, The Front Runner (-4)
Armie Hammer, On the Basis of Sex (-3)
Joel Edgerton, Boy Erased (-2)

Best Supporting Actress

  1. Claire Foy, First Man (+4)

  2. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (+1)

  3. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (+3)

  4. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (-3)

  5. Amy Adams, Vice (+2)
    —

  6. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (-2)

  7. Sissy Spacek, The Old Man and the Gun (+2)

  8. Natalie Portman, Vox Lux (NEW)

  9. Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots (-7)

  10. Kathy Bates, On the Basis of Sex (-)

DROPPED
Michelle Rodriguez, Widows (-3)

Best Original Screenplay

  1. Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara, The Favourite (-)

  2. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (NEW)

  3. Adam McKay, Vice (-)

  4. Jean-Claude Carriere and Julian Schnabel, At Eternity's Gate (+2)

  5. Mike Leigh, Peterloo (-4)
    —

  6. Jonah Hill, Mid '90s (+1)

  7. Brian Hayes Currie, Peter Farrelly and Nick Vallelonga, Green Book (NEW)

  8. Oja Kodar and Orson Welles, The Other Side of the Wind (-3)

  9. Bo Burnham, Eighth Grade (-)

  10. Daniel Stiepleman, On the Basis of Sex (-6)

DROPPED
Diablo Cody, Tully (-2)
Boots Riley, Sorry to Bother You (-1)

Best Adapted Screenplay

  1. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (-)

  2. Nicole Perman and Josh Singer, First Man (+2)

  3. Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters, Irene Mecchi, Stephen J. Rivele, Eric Roth and Christopher Wilkinson, A Star Is Born (+5)

  4. Spike Lee, David Rabinowitz, Charlie Wachtel and Kevin Willmott, BlacKkKlansman (-2)

  5. Nicole Holofcener, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (NEW)
    —

  6. Gillian Flynn and Steve McQueen, Widows (-1)

  7. David Lowery, The Old Man and the Gun (NEW)

  8. Joel Edgerton, Boy Erased (-1)

  9. Luke Davies, Beautiful Boy (-6)

  10. Beau Willimon, Mary Queen of Scots (-4)

DROPPED
Matt Bai, Jay Carson and Jason Reitman, The Front Runner (-2)
Jane Anderson, The Wife (-1)

Best Animated Feature

  1. The Incredibles 2 (-)

  2. Smallfoot (+1)

  3. Ralph Breaks the Internet: Wreck-It-Ralph 2 (+1)

  4. Isle of Dogs (-2)

  5. Fireworks (-)
    —

  6. Mirai (+1)

  7. Lu Over the Wall (+2)

  8. Teen Titans Go! to the Movies (NEW)

  9. The Grinch (-3)

  10. Spider-Man: Into the Spider Verse (-2)

DROPPED
Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation (-1)

Best Documentary Feature (first stab at predicting these)

  1. RBG

  2. Three Identical Strangers

  3. King in the Wilderness

  4. Won’t You Be My Neighbor?

  5. The Oslo Diaries
    —

  6. The Silence of Others

  7. Inventing Tomorrow

  8. Jane Fonda in Five Acts

  9. Fahrenheit 11/9

  10. Love, Gilda

Best Foreign Language Film (ditto)

  1. Roma (Mexico)

  2. Cold War (Poland)

  3. Capernaum (Lebanon)

  4. Never Look Away (Germany)

  5. Sunset (Hungary)
    —

  6. Girl (Belgium)

  7. Border (Sweden)

  8. Loro (Italy)

  9. La Familia (Venezuela)

  10. The Interpreter (Slovakia)

Best Cinematography

  1. Matthew Libatique, A Star Is Born (+1)

  2. Linus Sandgren, First Man (+4)

  3. James Laxton, If Beale Street Could Talk (-2)

  4. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (NEW)

  5. Robbie Ryan, The Favourite (-1)
    —

  6. Sean Bobbitt, Widows (-3)

  7. Hoyte Van Hoytema, Ad Astra (+1)

  8. Rachel Morrison, Black Panther (+1)

  9. Dick Pope, Peterloo (-3)

  10. Bruno Delbonnel, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (NEW)

DROPPED
John Mathieson, Mary Queen of Scots (-4)
Ruben Impens, Beautiful Boy (-1)

Best Costume Design

  1. Sandy Powell, The Favourite (+2)

  2. Colleen Atwood, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (-)

  3. Sandy Powell, Mary Poppins Returns (+4)

  4. Andrea Flesch, Colette (+2)

  5. Mary Zophres, First Man (+3)
    —

  6. Alexandra Byrne, Mary Queen of Scots (-5)

  7. Ruth E. Carter, Black Panther (+2)

  8. Jacqueline Durran, Peterloo (-3)

  9. Guy Speranza, Stan and Ollie (NEW)

  10. Jenny Beavan, The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (-5)

DROPPED
Joanna Johnston, Welcome to Marwen (-1)

Best Film Editing

  1. Tom Cross, First Man (+4)

  2. Jay Cassidy, A Star Is Born (-)

  3. Joe Walker, Widows (-)

  4. Joi McMillon and Nat Sanders, If Beale Street Could Talk (-3)

  5. Alfonso Cuaron and Adam Gough, Roma (NEW)
    —

  6. Barry Alexander Brown, BlacKkKlansman (-1)

  7. Sam Sneade, The Favourite (-1)

  8. Hank Corwin, Vice (NEW)

  9. Debbie Berman and Michael P. Shawver, Black Panther (-1)

  10. John Axelrad and Lee Haugen, Ad Astra (NEW)

DROPPED
Chris Dickens, Mary Queen of Scots (-4)
Stephen Mirrione, Beautiful Boy (-2)
Bob Murawski and Orson Welles, The Other Side of the Wind (-1)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

  1. Vice (+3)

  2. The Favourite (-)

  3. Stan and Ollie (NEW)
    —

  4. Mary Queen of Scots (-3)

  5. At Eternity's Gate (+1)

  6. Peterloo (-3)

  7. Black Panther (-2)

  8. Deadpool 2 (-)

  9. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (NEW)

  10. Suspiria (-1)

DROPPED
Solo: A Star Wars Story (-4)
First Man (-1)

Best Original Score

  1. Justin Hurwitz, First Man (-)

  2. Nicholas Britell, If Beale Street Could Talk (-)

  3. Terence Blanchard, BlacKkKlansman (-)

  4. Marc Shaiman and Scott Wittman, Mary Poppins Returns (+2)

  5. Alexandre Desplat, Isle of Dogs (-)
    —

  6. James Newton Howard, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (+1)

  7. Michael Giacchino, The Incredibles 2 (+1)

  8. Hans Zimmer, Widows (NEW)

  9. Alexandre Desplat, The Sisters Brothers (NEW)

  10. Michel Legrand, The Other Side of the Wind (NEW)

DROPPED
Max Richter, Mary Queen of Scots (-7)
Alan Silvestri, Ready Player One (-2)
Pino Donaggio, Domino (-1)

Best Production Design

  1. Fiona Crombie and Alice Felton, The Favourite (+1)

  2. John Myrhe and Gordon Sim, Mary Poppins Returns (+1)

  3. Stuart Craig and Anna Pinnock, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (+1)

  4. Nathan Crowley and Kathy Lucas, First Man (+4)

  5. Lisa Chung and Guy Hendrix Dyas, The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (-)
    —

  6. Gina Cromwell and James Merifield, Mary Queen of Scots (-5)

  7. Paul Harrod and Adam Stockhausen, Isle of Dogs (-1)

  8. Stephan Cressend and Cecile Vatelot, At Eternity’s Gate (NEW)

  9. Hannah Beachler and Jay Hart, Black Panther (-2)

  10. Suzie Davies and Charlotte Watts, Peterloo (-)

DROPPED
Inbal Weinberg, Suspiria (-2)

Best Sound Editing

  1. A Star Is Born (-)

  2. First Man (-)

  3. Avengers: Infinity War (+1)

  4. Mission: Impossible - Fallout (-1)

  5. Ad Astra (-)
    —

  6. Black Panther (-)

  7. Ready Player One (+1)

  8. The Incredibles 2 (-1)

  9. Widows (-)

  10. Mary Poppins Returns (NEW)

DROPPED
Solo: A Star Wars Story (-1)

Best Sound Mixing

  1. A Star Is Born (-)

  2. First Man (-)

  3. The Incredibles 2 (-)

  4. Widows (-)

  5. Avengers: Infinity War (+2)
    —

  6. Ad Astra (-1)

  7. Black Panther (-1)

  8. Mission: Impossible - Fallout (-)

  9. Mary Poppins Returns (-)

  10. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (-)

Best Visual Effects

  1. First Man (-)

  2. Avengers: Infinity War (-)

  3. Ready Player One (-)

  4. Ad Astra (-)

  5. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (-)
    —

  6. Black Panther (+1)

  7. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (-1)

  8. A Wrinkle in Time (NEW)

  9. Deadpool 2 (+1)

  10. Solo: A Star Wars Story (-1)

DROPPED
Mowgli (-3)

September 11, 2018 /Andrew Carden
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