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Melissa McCarthy and Richard E. Grant in Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Melissa McCarthy and Richard E. Grant in Can You Ever Forgive Me?

2018 Oscar Nomination Predictions (October)

October 10, 2018 by Andrew Carden in Oscars

How’s it hanging, my fellow Oscar lovers?

Over the past month, since my September predictions. a host of developments have transpired in this roller coaster ride of an awards season:

  • Trailers dropped for a handful of Oscar contenders, including Capernaum; Mary Poppins Returns; Stan & Ollie; and Vice.

  • Warner Bros. announced The Mule, the latest picture from Clint Eastwood, will make the cut for Oscar consideration with a December release date. The film also stars Bradley Cooper, Michael Pena and the all-around amazing Dianne Wiest.

  • Speaking of Cooper, his A Star Is Born, as generally expected, is making a killing at the box office following a gangbusters festival run and marvelous reviews. Much as I enjoyed the picture, it still doesn’t strike me as likely to completely steamroll this awards season, as some pundits seem convinced.

  • Amazon Pictures moved Mike Leigh’s Peterloo out of 2018 awards consideration. The film will now be released in April.

  • In a move surely designed to help Black Panther, Disney announced Avengers: Infinity War will solely earn an Oscar push in Best Visual Effects.

  • After being missing in action at the Telluride, Toronto and Venice Film Festivals, Mary Queen of Scots and On the Basis of Sex will at last see the light of day at the AFI Fest in November.

  • Willem Dafoe, Rachel Weisz and Paul Greengrass were named honorees for the upcoming Gotham Awards. All three - with At Eternity’s End, The Favourite and 22 July - are Oscar hopefuls.

  • John Krasinski’s critical and commercial smash A Quiet Place released For Your Consideration ads in its underdog bid for awards season recognition. I was plenty fond of the pic but can’t help but suspect it’ll be forgotten and/or not taken seriously by the bulk of voters.

No doubt, I'm forgetting something of significance that recently went down.

Please see below my latest set of Oscar predictions, for the month of October. In parentheses you will find how many spots a contender has moved up or down since my last rankings. In some cases, I have dropped a film or performer entirely. I am still holding off on predictions in the shorts, as well as Best Original Song.

Have fun reading and, as always, feel free to comment with your own thoughts too!

Best Picture

  1. First Man (-)

  2. A Star Is Born (-)

  3. Roma (+1)

  4. If Beale Street Could Talk (-1)

  5. Green Book (+5)

  6. The Favourite (-1)

  7. BlacKkKlansman (-)

  8. Widows (-2)
    —

  9. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (-)

  10. Vice (-2)

  11. Black Panther (+4)

  12. The Mule (NEW)

  13. Mary Queen of Scots (-1)

  14. Crazy Rich Asians (-)

  15. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (NEW)

DROPPED
The Incredibles 2 (-6)
Boy Erased (-3)

Best Director

  1. Damien Chazelle, First Man (-)

  2. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (-)

  3. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (+1)

  4. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (-1)

  5. Steve McQueen, Widows (-)
    —

  6. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (-)

  7. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (-)

  8. Adam McKay, Vice (-)

  9. Clint Eastwood, The Mule (NEW)

  10. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (-1)

DROPPED
Orson Welles, The Other Side of the Wind (-1)

Best Leading Actor

  1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (+1)

  2. Ryan Gosling, First Man (-1)

  3. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity's Gate (-)

  4. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (NEW)

  5. Christian Bale, Vice (-)
    —

  6. Robert Redford, The Old Man and the Gun (-2)

  7. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased (-1)

  8. Clint Eastwood, The Mule (NEW)

  9. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (NEW)

  10. John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman (-)

DROPPED
Mahershala Ali, Green Book (-4)
Steve Carell, Beautiful Boy (-3)
Stephan James, If Beale Street Could Talk (-2)

Best Leading Actress

  1. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (-)

  2. Glenn Close, The Wife (+2)

  3. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (+2)

  4. Viola Davis, Widows (-)

  5. Emma Stone, The Favourite (+1)
    —

  6. Yalitza Aparcio, Roma (NEW)

  7. Kiki Layne, If Beale Street Could Talk (+1)

  8. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (-5)

  9. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (-2)

  10. Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots (-1)

DROPPED
Toni Collette, Hereditary (-1)

Best Supporting Actor

  1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (NEW)

  2. Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born (-1)

  3. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (+1)

  4. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (-2)

  5. Stephan James, If Beale Street Could Talk (NEW)
    —

  6. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows (-3)

  7. Sam Rockwell, Vice (-2)

  8. Russell Crowe, Boy Erased (-2)

  9. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (-1)

  10. Robert Forster, What They Had (-)

DROPPED
John C. Reilly, Stan and Ollie (-4)
Ben Foster, Leave No Trace (-3)

Best Supporting Actress

  1. Claire Foy, First Man (-)

  2. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (-)

  3. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (+1)

  4. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (-1)

  5. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (+1)
    —

  6. Sissy Spacek, The Old Man and the Gun (+1)

  7. Amy Adams, Vice (-2)

  8. Natalie Portman, Vox Lux (-)

  9. Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots (-)

  10. Kathy Bates, On the Basis of Sex (-)

Best Original Screenplay

  1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (+1)

  2. Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara, The Favourite (-1)

  3. Brian Hayes Currie, Peter Farrelly and Nick Vallelonga, Green Book (+4)

  4. Joel and Ethan Coen, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (NEW)

  5. Jonah Hill, Mid '90s (+1)
    —

  6. Adam McKay, Vice (-3)

  7. Jean-Claude Carriere and Julian Schnabel, At Eternity's Gate (-3)

  8. Jihad Hojeily, Michelle Keserwany, Nadine Labaki and Khaled Mouzanar, Capernaum (NEW)

  9. Bo Burnham, Eighth Grade (-)

  10. Daniel Stiepleman, On the Basis of Sex (-)

DROPPED
Mike Leigh, Peterloo (-6)
Oja Kodar and Orson Welles, The Other Side of the Wind (-3)

Best Adapted Screenplay

  1. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (-)

  2. Spike Lee, David Rabinowitz, Charlie Wachtel and Kevin Willmott, BlacKkKlansman (+2)

  3. Josh Singer, First Man (-1)

  4. Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters, Irene Mecchi, Stephen J. Rivele, Eric Roth and Christopher Wilkinson, A Star Is Born (-1)

  5. Nicole Holofcener, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (-)
    —

  6. Gillian Flynn and Steve McQueen, Widows (-)

  7. Joel Edgerton, Boy Erased (+1)

  8. David Lowery, The Old Man and the Gun (-1)

  9. Beau Willimon, Mary Queen of Scots (+1)

  10. Jon Robert Cole and Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (NEW)

DROPPED
Luke Davies, Beautiful Boy (-2)

Best Animated Feature

  1. The Incredibles 2 (-)

  2. Ralph Breaks the Internet: Wreck-It-Ralph 2 (+1)

  3. Isle of Dogs (+1)

  4. Lu Over the Wall (+3)

  5. Smallfoot (-4)
    —

  6. Fireworks (-1)

  7. Mirai (-1)

  8. The Grinch (+1)

  9. Tito and the Birds (NEW)

  10. Spider-Man: Into the Spider Verse (-)

DROPPED
Teen Titans Go! to the Movies (-3)

Best Documentary Feature

  1. RBG (-)

  2. Three Identical Strangers (-)

  3. King in the Wilderness (-)

  4. Won’t You Be My Neighbor? (-)

  5. The Oslo Diaries (-)
    —

  6. The Silence of Others (-)

  7. Inventing Tomorrow (-)

  8. The Price of Everything (NEW)

  9. Fahrenheit 11/9 (-)

  10. Jane Fonda in Five Acts (-2)

DROPPED
Love, Gilda (-1)

Best Foreign Language Film

  1. Roma (Mexico) (-)

  2. Capernaum (Lebanon) (+1)

  3. Never Look Away (Germany) (+1)

  4. Cold War (Poland) (-2)

  5. Sunset (Hungary) (-)
    —

  6. Shoplifters (Japan) (NEW)

  7. Border (Sweden) (+1)

  8. Girl (Belgium) (-2)

  9. The Interpreter (Slovakia) (-)

  10. Ghost Hunting (Palestine) (NEW)

DROPPED
Loro (Italy) (-3)
La Familia (Venezuela) (-2)

Best Cinematography

  1. Matthew Libatique, A Star Is Born (-)

  2. Linus Sandgren, First Man (-)

  3. James Laxton, If Beale Street Could Talk (-)

  4. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (-)

  5. Robbie Ryan, The Favourite (-)
    —

  6. Sean Bobbitt, Widows (-)

  7. Rachel Morrison, Black Panther (+1)

  8. Caleb Deschanel, Never Look Away (NEW)

  9. Christopher Aoun, Capernaum (NEW)

  10. Bruno Delbonnel, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (-)

DROPPED
Hoyte Van Hoytema, Ad Astra (-4)
Dick Pope, Peterloo (-2)

Best Costume Design

  1. Sandy Powell, The Favourite (-)

  2. Sandy Powell, Mary Poppins Returns (+1)

  3. Colleen Atwood, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (-1)

  4. Mary Zophres, First Man (+1)

  5. Andrea Flesch, Colette (-1)
    —

  6. Alexandra Byrne, Mary Queen of Scots (-)

  7. Ruth E. Carter, Black Panther (-)

  8. Guy Speranza, Stan and Ollie (+1)

  9. Jenny Beavan, The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (+1)

  10. Caroline Eselin, If Beale Street Could Talk (NEW)

DROPPED
Jacqueline Durran, Peterloo (-3)

Best Film Editing

  1. Tom Cross, First Man (-)

  2. Jay Cassidy, A Star Is Born (-)

  3. Alfonso Cuaron and Adam Gough, Roma (+2)

  4. Joe Walker, Widows (-1)

  5. Joi McMillon and Nat Sanders, If Beale Street Could Talk (-1)
    —

  6. Barry Alexander Brown, BlacKkKlansman (-)

  7. Sam Sneade, The Favourite (-)

  8. Hank Corwin, Vice (-)

  9. Debbie Berman and Michael P. Shawver, Black Panther (-)

  10. William Goldenberg, 22 July (NEW)

DROPPED
John Axelrad and Lee Haugen, Ad Astra (-1)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

  1. Vice (-)

  2. The Favourite (-)

  3. Stan and Ollie (-)
    —

  4. Mary Queen of Scots (-)

  5. At Eternity's Gate (-)

  6. Colette (NEW)

  7. Deadpool 2 (-)

  8. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (-)

  9. Black Panther (-3)

  10. Suspiria (-)

DROPPED
Peterloo (-5)

Best Original Score

  1. Justin Hurwitz, First Man (-)

  2. Nicholas Britell, If Beale Street Could Talk (-)

  3. Terence Blanchard, BlacKkKlansman (-)

  4. Marc Shaiman and Scott Wittman, Mary Poppins Returns (-)

  5. Alexandre Desplat, Isle of Dogs (-)
    —

  6. Hans Zimmer, Widows (+2)

  7. James Newton Howard, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (-1)

  8. Michael Giacchino, The Incredibles 2 (-1)

  9. Nicholas Britell, Vice (NEW)

  10. Michel Legrand, The Other Side of the Wind (-)

DROPPED
Alexandre Desplat, The Sisters Brothers (-2)

Best Production Design

  1. Fiona Crombie and Alice Felton, The Favourite (-)

  2. John Myrhe and Gordon Sim, Mary Poppins Returns (-)

  3. Stuart Craig and Anna Pinnock, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (-)

  4. Nathan Crowley and Kathy Lucas, First Man (-)

  5. Lisa Chung and Guy Hendrix Dyas, The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (-)
    —

  6. Gina Cromwell and James Merifield, Mary Queen of Scots (-)

  7. Paul Harrod and Adam Stockhausen, Isle of Dogs (-)

  8. Stephan Cressend and Cecile Vatelot, At Eternity’s Gate (-)

  9. Hannah Beachler and Jay Hart, Black Panther (-)

  10. Michael Carlin, Lisa Chugg and Nora Talmaier, Colette (NEW)

DROPPED
Suzie Davies and Charlotte Watts, Peterloo (-1)

Best Sound Editing

  1. A Star Is Born (-)

  2. First Man (-)

  3. Mission: Impossible - Fallout (+1)

  4. Black Panther (+2)

  5. Mary Poppins Returns (+5)
    —

  6. Bohemian Rhapsody (NEW)

  7. Ready Player One (-)

  8. The Incredibles 2 (-)

  9. Widows (-)

  10. 22 July (NEW)

DROPPED
Avengers: Infinity War (-8)
Ad Astra (-6)

Best Sound Mixing

  1. A Star Is Born (-)

  2. First Man (-)

  3. The Incredibles 2 (-)

  4. Widows (-)

  5. Mary Poppins Returns (+4)
    —

  6. Bohemian Rhapsody (NEW)

  7. Black Panther (-)

  8. Mission: Impossible - Fallout (-)

  9. Roma (NEW)

  10. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (-)

DROPPED
Avengers: Infinity War (-6)
Ad Astra (-5)

Best Visual Effects

  1. First Man (-)

  2. Avengers: Infinity War (-)

  3. Ready Player One (-)

  4. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (+1)

  5. Black Panther (+1)
    —

  6. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (-1)

  7. A Wrinkle in Time (+1)

  8. Deadpool 2 (+1)

  9. Isle of Dogs (NEW)

  10. Solo: A Star Wars Story (-)

DROPPED
Ad Astra (-7)

October 10, 2018 /Andrew Carden
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