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2017 Oscar Nomination Predictions (October)

October 10, 2017 by Andrew Carden in Oscars

What up, my fellow Oscar lovers?

Over the past month, since my September predictions, a host of developments have transpired in this roller coaster ride of an awards season:

  • Trailers were released for a batch of contenders - All the Money in the World, The Meyerowitz Stories, Roman J. Israel, Esq., Star Wars: The Last Jedi and Wonder Wheel
     
  • Oscar hopefuls Battle of the Sexes and Stronger opened to solid critical notices - will, however, they be showered in awards love beyond for Emma Stone and Jake Gyllenhaal? Likewise, will Victoria and Abdul, the recipient of more lukewarm acclaim than those pictures, make much of a mark at all come awards time? (Note, however, that Victoria is faring better at the box office than the other two pics.)
     
  • Speaking of box office, Blade Runner 2049, despite glowing reviews, is struggling a make bank. With lackluster receipts, can the Harrison Ford-Ryan Gosling flick really be a major Oscar contender, beyond the technical categories?
     
  • Darren Aronofsky's mother! (a film I for one adored) polarized critics upon hitting theaters and managed to net that elusive F grade over at CinemaScore. Folks who thought this might just be Michelle Pfeiffer's year probably ought to move on. :(
     
  • In a move that shakes up Lead and Supporting Actor forecasts, Bryan Cranston shall be campaigned in the latter category for Last Flag Flying, with Steve Carell the sole Lead push and Laurence Fishburne (as expected) also in Supporting.
     
  • Sony Pictures Classics has picked up The Wife for distribution...in 2018. Fingers crossed for six-time Oscar nominee/legend Glenn Close next year!
     
  • Entertainment Studios has picked up the Christian Bale drama Hostiles for distribution this year. The picture, which won warm notices at the Telluride Film Festival, joins Chappaquiddick as the distributor's awards season pushes.

No doubt, I'm forgetting something of significance that recently went down.

Please see below my latest set of Oscar predictions, for the month of October. In parentheses you will find how many spots a contender has moved up or down since my last rankings. In some cases, I have dropped a film or performer entirely. Also, this marks the first month I am attempting predictions in both Documentary Feature and Foreign Language Film.

Have fun reading and, as always, feel free to comment with your own thoughts too!

Best Picture

  1. Dunkirk (-)
  2. The Shape of Water (-)
  3. The Post (+2)
  4. Darkest Hour (-1)
  5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (NEW)
  6. Call Me By Your Name (-2)
  7. The Florida Project (-)
  8. Mudbound (-)
  9. The Disaster Artist (NEW)
    ---
  10. Coco (+1)
  11. Phantom Thread (+3)
  12. Lady Bird (+3)
  13. The Big Sick (NEW)
  14. Get Out (NEW)
  15. Wonder Wheel (-6)

DROPPED
Last Flag Flying (-10)
Battle of the Sexes (-6)
Blade Runner 2049 (-3)

Best Director

  1. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (-)
  2. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (-)
  3. Steven Spielberg, The Post (+2)
  4. Joe Wright, Darkest Hour (-1)
  5. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (NEW)
    ---
  6. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me By Your Name (-2)
  7. Dee Rees, Mudbound (-1)
  8. Sean Baker, The Florida Project (NEW)
  9. Denis Villeneuve, Blade Runner 2049 (-2)
  10. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (-2)

DROPPED
Woody Allen, Wonder Wheel (-2)
Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris, Battle of the Sexes (-1)

Best Lead Actor

  1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (-)
  2. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name (-)
  3. Tom Hanks, The Post (+5)
  4. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (-1)
  5. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (-1)
    ---
  6. Andrew Garfield, Breathe (-1)
  7. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (-1)
  8. Steve Carell, Last Flag Flying (-)
  9. Harry Dean Stanton, Lucky (NEW)
  10. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq. (-)

DROPPED
Bryan Cranston, Last Flag Flying (-7)

Best Lead Actress

  1. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (+1)
  2. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (+1)
  3. Meryl Streep, The Post (+3)
  4. Jessica Chastain, Molly's Game (-)
  5. Judi Dench, Victoria & Abdul (+4)
    ---
  6. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (-1)
  7. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (-6)
  8. Annette Bening, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool (-1)
  9. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (-1)
  10. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (NEW)

DROPPED
Glenn Close, The Wife (-2)

Best Supporting Actor

  1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (-)
  2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (+2)
  3. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me By Your Name (-1)
  4. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (+2)
  5. Ben Mendelsohn, Darkest Hour (-2)
    ---
  6. Armie Hammer, Call Me By Your Name (+1)
  7. Dustin Hoffman, The Meyerowitz Stories (NEW)
  8. Bryan Cranston, Last Flag Flying (NEW)
  9. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (-1)
  10. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound (-)

DROPPED
Laurence Fishburne, Last Flag Flying (-5)
Idris Elba, Molly's Game (-2)

Best Supporting Actress

  1. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (-)
  2. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (+1)
  3. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (+3)
  4. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (-2)
  5. Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour (-)
    ---
  6. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (-2)
  7. Tatiana Maslany, Stronger (NEW)
  8. Claire Foy, Breathe (NEW)
  9. Hong Chau, Downsizing (-1)
  10. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (-)

DROPPED
Michelle Pfeiffer, mother! (-4)
Julianne Moore, Wonderstruck (-2)

Best Original Screenplay

  1. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (+2)
  2. Anthony McCarten, Darkest Hour (-1)
  3. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (-1)
  4. Liz Hannah and Josh Singer, The Post (NEW)
  5. Sean Baker and Chris Bergoch, The Florida Project (-)
    ---
  6. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird (-)
  7. Woody Allen, Wonder Wheel (-3)
  8. Emily V. Gordon and Kumail Nanjiani, The Big Sick (-1)
  9. Jordan Peele, Get Out (-)
  10. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (-2)

DROPPED
Simon Beaufoy, Battle of the Sexes (-1)

Best Adapted Screenplay

  1. James Ivory, Call Me By Your Name (-)
  2. Dee Rees and Virgil Williams, Mudbound (-)
  3. Angelina Jolie and Loung Ung, First They Killed My Father (NEW)
  4. Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber, The Disaster Artist (-)
  5. Richard Linklater and Darryl Ponicsan, Last Flag Flying (-2)
    ---
  6. Aaron Sorkin, Molly's Game (-)
  7. Sofia Coppola, The Beguiled (-1)
  8. John Pollono, Stronger (NEW)
  9. Jason Fuchs, Allan Heinberg, William Moulton Marston and Zack Snyder, Wonder Woman (NEW)
  10. Matt Greenhalgh and Peter Turner, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool (NEW)

DROPPED
Peter Fellos, Armando Iannucci, Ian Martin, Fabien Nury, Theirry Robin and David Schneider, The Death of Stalin (-5)
Hampton Fancher and Michael Green, Blade Runner 2049 (-4)
Andrew Haigh, Lean on Pete (-3)

Best Animated Feature

  1. Coco (-)
  2. Loving Vincent (-)
  3. The Breadwinner (-)
  4. The Girl Without Hands (NEW)
  5. Cars 3 (-1)
    ---
  6. Despicable Me 3 (-1)
  7. Ferdinand (-1)
  8. The Lego Batman Movie (-1)
  9. Mary and the Witch's Flower (NEW)
  10. The Lego Ninjago (-2)

DROPPED
Leap! (-2)
Captain Underpants (-1)

Best Documentary Feature

  1. City of Ghosts
  2. Faces, Place
  3. Ex Libris
  4. Hell on Earth
  5. Risk
    ---
  6. Cries from Syria
  7. L.A. 92
  8. The Life and Death of Marsha P. Johnson
  9. Abacus
  10. Joan Didion: The Center Will Not Hold

Best Foreign Language Film

  1. First They Killed My Father (Cambodia)
  2. A Fantastic Woman (Chile)
  3. A Letter to the President (Afghanistan)
  4. Her Love Boils Bathwater (Japan)
  5. A Taxi Driver (South Korea)
    ---
  6. In the Fade (Germany)
  7. The Square (Sweden)
  8. Scary Mother (Georgia)
  9. The Train of Salt and Sugar (Mozambique)
  10. Summer 1993 (Spain)

Best Cinematography

  1. Hoyte Van Hoytema, Dunkirk (-)
  2. Roger Deakins, Blade Runner 2049 (-)
  3. Dan Laustsen, The Shape of Water (+1)
  4. Bruno Delbonnel, Darkest Hour (-2)
  5. Vittorio Storaro, Wonder Wheel (+2)
    ---
  6. Janusz Kaminski, The Post (-1)
  7. Sayombhu Mukdeeprom, Call Me By Your Name (-2)
  8. Rachel Morrison, Mudbound (-)
  9. Edward Lachman, Wonderstruck (-)
  10. Masanobu Takayanagi, Hostiles (-)

Best Costume Design

  1. Jacqueline Durran, Darkest Hour (-)
  2. Ellen Miojnick, The Greatest Showman (+3)
  3. Jacqueline Durran, Beauty and the Beast (+3)
  4. Consolata Boyle, Victoria & Abdul (-2)
  5. Sandy Powell, Wonderstruck (-2)
    ---
  6. Alexandra Byrne and Timothy Everest, Murder on the Orient Express (+1)
  7. Mark Bridges, Phantom Thread (-3)
  8. Suzy Benzinger, Wonder Wheel (NEW)
  9. Ann Roth, The Post (-1)
  10. Lindy Hemming, Wonder Woman (-1)

DROPPED
Mary Zophres, Battle of the Sexes (-1)

Best Film Editing

  1. Lee Smith, Dunkirk (-)
  2. Sidney Wolinsky, The Shape of Water (-)
  3. Michael Kahn, The Post (+1)
  4. Valerio Bonelli, Darkest Hour (-1)
  5. Jon Gregory, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (NEW)
    ---
  6. Bob Ducsay, Star Wars: The Last Jedi (-1)
  7. William Hoy and Stan Salfas, War for the Planet of the Apes (-1)
  8. Joe Walker, Blade Runner 2049 (-)
  9. Mako Kamitsuna, Mudbound (+1)
  10. Walter Fasano, Call Me By Your Name (-1)

DROPPED
Pamela Martin, Battle of the Sexes (-4)

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

  1. Anita Burger, David Malinkowski and Lucy Sibbick, Darkest Hour (-)
  2. Paula Fleet and Patricia Keighran, The Shape of Water (-)
  3. Sunday English, Gary English, Nicki Ledermann, Angela Levin,Gary Martori, Jerry Popolis, Rania Ribalow, Pamela S. Westmore and Nakoya Yancey, The Greatest Showman (+4)
    ---
  4. Flora Moody and Allison Sing, Star Wars: The Last Jedi (-1)
  5. Alexis Continente, Carol Hemming, Dana Kalder, Jutta Russell, Chiara Ugolini and Wakana Yoshihara, Murder on the Orient Express (+3)
  6. Lizza Lawson, Jo-Ann MacNiel and Donald Mowat, Blade Runner 2049 (-2)
  7. Mary Everett, Bill Myer and Teresa Vest, I, Tonya (NEW)
  8. Jacqueline Bhavnani, Samantha Denyer, Sarah Kelly and Bradley Simms, Beauty and the Beast (-3)
  9. Haruyo Sawada and Torsten Witte, Battle of the Sexes (-3)
  10. Sarah Craig, Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram, Debra Manou, Emily O'Quinn and Sean Sansom, It (-)

DROPPED
Jerry DeCarlo and Claus Lulla, Wonderstruck (-3)

Best Original Score

  1. Alexandre Desplat, The Shape of Water (-)
  2. Dario Marianelli, Darkest Hour (+1)
  3. John Williams, Star Wars: The Last Jedi (+1)
  4. Hans Zimmer, Dunkirk (-2)
  5. Thomas Newman, Victoria & Abdul (-)
    ---
  6. Carter Burwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (NEW)
  7. Michael Giacchino, Coco (NEW)
  8. John Williams, The Post (-2)
  9. Hans Zimmer, Blade Runner 2049 (-2)
  10. John Debney, Benj Pasek and Justin Paul, The Greatest Showman (-)

DROPPED
Carter Burwell, Wonderstruck (-3)
Dustin O'Halloran, The Current War (-1)

Best Production Design

  1. Nathan Crowley, Dunkirk (-)
  2. Paul D. Austerberry, The Shape of Water (-)
  3. Sarah Greenwood, Darkest Hour (-)
  4. Dennis Gassner, Blade Runner 2049 (-)
  5. David J. Bomba, Mudbound (-)
    ---
  6. Nathan Crowley, The Greatest Showman (-)
  7. Santo Loquasto, Wonder Wheel (NEW)
  8. Aline Bonetto, Wonder Woman (-1)
  9. Rick Heinrichs, Star Wars: The Last Jedi (-1)
  10. Rick Carter, The Post (-1)

DROPPED
Sarah Finley and Adam Squires, Victoria & Abdul (-2)

Best Sound Editing

  1. Richard King, Dunkirk (-)
  2. Matthew Wood, Star Wars: The Last Jedi (-)
  3. Will Files, War for the Planet of the Apes (-)
  4. Nathan Robitaille, The Shape of Water (-)
  5. Julian Slater, Baby Driver (+1)
    ---
  6. Theo Green and Mark A. Mangini, Blade Runner 2049 (-1)
  7. Justin Doyle, Coco (+3)
  8. James Mather, Wonder Woman (-1)
  9. Scott Hecker, Hostiles (-1)
  10. Richard Hymns, The Post (-1)

Best Sound Mixing

  1. Gregg Landaker, Gary Rizzo and Mark Weingarten, Dunkirk (-)
  2. David Parker and Michael Semanchick, Star Wars: The Last Jedi (-)
  3. Christian T. Cooke, Filip Hosek and Brad Zoern, The Shape of Water (-)
  4. Bill Bair, Will Files, Tom Lalley, Douglas Murray and Andy Nelson, War for the Planet of the Apes (-)
  5. Christopher Boyes and Michael Semanchick, Coco (+5)
    ---
  6. Ron Barlett, Doug Hemphill and Mac Ruth, Blade Runner 2049 (-1)
  7. Gary Rydstrom,The Post (+1)
  8. Paul Munro, Wonder Woman (-1)
  9. Tim Cavagin and Julian Slater, Baby Driver (+1)
  10. Craig Berkey and Roger J. Sacdalan, Darkest Hour (-2)

Best Visual Effects

  1. Richard Bain, Ben Morris and Michael Mulholland, Star Wars: The Last Jedi (-)
  2. Dennis Berardi and Kristen Bligh, The Shape of Water (-)
  3. Ryan Cook, Dan Lemmon, Joe Letteri and Erik Winquist, War for the Planet of the Apes (-)
  4. Richard Clegg, Paul Lambert, Victor Muller and John Nelson, Blade Runner 2049 (-)
  5. Andrew Jackson, Andrew Lockley and Tim McGovern, Dunkirk (-)
    ---
  6. Frazer Churchill, Viktor Muller, Jessica Norman and Bill Westenhofer, Wonder Woman (-)
  7. Kyle McCulloch, David Piombino, Kelly Port and Glen Pratt, Beauty and the Beast (-)
  8. Vincent Cirelli, Jake Morrison, Brendan Seals, Alexis Wajsbrot and Chad Wiebe,Thor: Ragnarok (+2)
  9. Dan Bethell, Theodore Bialek, Vincent Cirelli, Lou Pecora and Doug Spilatro, Spider-Man: Homecoming (-1)
  10. Matthew Crnich, Ray McMaster, Kevin Andrew Smith, Doug Spilatro and Christopher Townsend, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (-1)
October 10, 2017 /Andrew Carden
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