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2017 Oscar Nomination Predictions (September)

September 18, 2017 by Andrew Carden in Oscars

Howdy, fellow film fans!

Over the past two months, since my first set of Oscar predictions for the year, a plethora of events have gone down is what is shaping up to be one hell of an awards season:

  • Trailers dropped for a bunch of contenders - Call Me By Your Name, The Current War, Darkest Hour, The Disaster Artist, Downsizing, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool, The Florida Project, The Killing of a Sacred Deer, Lady Bird, Last Flag Flying, Molly's Game, mother!, Mudbound, Novitiate, The Shape of Water and Suburbicon.
     
  • The Telluride, Toronto and Venice Film Festivals struck bolts of lightning into the Oscar campaigns of, among others, Darkest Hour, Lady Bird, Molly's Game and The Shape of Water, all garnering fabulous notices. Among those attracting a less flattering response were The Current War, Downsizing, Roman Israel, Esq. and Suburbicon.
     
  • Sony Pictures Classics picked up Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool, with four-time Oscar nominee Annette Bening taking on the role of Oscar winner Gloria Grahame, for release this year. Will fifth time be the charm? (Given the early notices, odds are no.)
     
  • Speaking of acquisitions, A24 landed Greta Gerwig's Lady Bird, starring Saoirse Ronan and Laurie Metcalf. Ah, the sound of 'Oscar nominee Laurie Metcalf' sure does have a nice ring to it.
     
  • Also picking up distribution - I, Tonya, with Margo Robbie tearing it up as disgraced gold medal hopeful Tonya Harding (and Allison Janney as her mama!). Neon and 30WEST have snagged rights for the film.
     
  • Kathryn Bigelow's Detroit opened to mostly strong notices, though was not without its detractors. At the box office, however, the picture was a total underperformer, leaving its awards season chances all the more questionable.
     
  • Brie Larson Oscar bait The Glass Castle opened with a whimper, garnering lukewarm reviews and comparably anemic box office receipts.
     
  • Warner Bros. announced it will launch a "groundbreaking" Oscar campaign for critical and box office smash Wonder Woman. 20th Century Fox has promised the same for War for the Planet of the Apes.

No doubt, of course, I'm overlooking something of significance that recently transpired.

Please see below my latest set of Oscar predictions, for the month of September. In parentheses you will find how many slots a contender has moved up or down since my last rankings. In many cases, I have dropped a film or performer entirely. (Also, I'm still holding off on predictions in Best Foreign Language Film and Best Documentary Feature.)

Enjoy and, as always, feel free to comment with your own thoughts as well!

Best Picture

  1. Dunkirk (-)
  2. The Shape of Water (NEW)
  3. Darkest Hour (-)
  4. Call Me By Your Name (-)
  5. The Post (-3)
  6. Last Flag Flying (NEW)
  7. The Florida Project (NEW)
  8. Mudbound (NEW)
  9. Wonder Wheel (+4)
    ---
  10. Battle of the Sexes (NEW)
  11. Coco (NEW)
  12. Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri (NEW)
  13. Blade Runner 2049 (-3)
  14. Phantom Thread (-10)
  15. Lady Bird (NEW)

DROPPED
The Current War (-10)
Detroit (-9)
Marshall (-8)
Breathe (-7)
mother! (-5)
The Big Sick (-4)
Victoria & Abdul (-2)
Get Out (-1)

Best Director

  1. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (NEW)
  2. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (+1)
  3. Joe Wright, Darkest Hour (-1)
  4. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me By Your Name (+4)
  5. Steven Spielberg, The Post (-4)
    ---
  6. Dee Rees, Mudbound (NEW)
  7. Denis Villenueve, Blade Runner 2049 (-)
  8. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (-4)
  9. Woody Allen, Wonder Wheel (NEW)
  10. Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris, Battle of the Sexes (NEW)

DROPPED
Darren Aronofsky, mother! (-6)
Kathryn Bigelow, Detroit (-5)
Alfonso Gomez-Rejon, The Current War (-2)
Andy Serkis, Breathe (-1)

Best Lead Actor

  1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (-)
  2. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name (NEW)
  3. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (+3)
  4. Bryan Cranston, Last Flag Flying (+4)
  5. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (-3)
    ---
  6. Andrew Garfield, Breathe (-2)
  7. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (NEW)
  8. Steve Carell, Last Flag Flying (NEW)
  9. Tom Hanks, The Post (-2)
  10. Denzel Washington, Roman Israel, Esq. (-1)

DROPPED
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Current War (-8)
Chadwick Boseman, Marshall (-6)
Donald Sutherland, The Leisure Seeker (-1)

Best Lead Actress

  1. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (+7)
  2. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri (+4)
  3. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (NEW)
  4. Jessica Chastain, Molly's Game (+1)
  5. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (-1)
    ---
  6. Meryl Streep, The Post (-5)
  7. Annette Bening, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool (+2)
  8. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (NEW)
  9. Glenn Close, The Wife (+1)
  10. Judi Dench, Victoria & Abdul (-8)

DROPPED
Jennifer Lawrence, mother! (-8)
Claire Foy, Breathe (-4)

Best Supporting Actor

  1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (+8)
  2. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me By Your Name (+2)
  3. Ben Mendelsohn, Darkest Hour (-1)
  4. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri (NEW)
  5. Laurence Fishburne, Last Flag Flying (NEW)
    ---
  6. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (NEW)
  7. Armie Hammer, Call Me By Your Name (-1)
  8. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (NEW)
  9. Idris Elba, Molly's Game (NEW)
  10. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound (-2)

DROPPED
Michael Shannon, The Current War (-10)
Sterling K. Brown, Marshall (-8)
Steve Carell, Last Flag Flying (-6)
Colin Farrell, Roman Israel, Esq. (-4)
Ray Romano, The Big Sick (-1)

Best Supporting Actress

  1. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (-)
  2. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (NEW)
  3. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (NEW)
  4. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (-)
  5. Kristin Scott-Thomas, Darkest Hour (-3)
    ---
  6. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (NEW)
  7. Michelle Pfeiffer, mother! (-4)
  8. Hong Chau, Downsizing (NEW)
  9. Julianne Moore, Wonderstruck (-1)
  10. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (NEW)

DROPPED
Carrie Coon, The Post (-6)
Katherine Waterston, The Current War (-5)
Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread (-4)
Kirsten Dunst, The Beguiled (-3)
Nicole Kidman, The Killing of a Sacred Deer (-1)

Best Original Screenplay

  1. Anthony McCarten, Darkest Hour (-)
  2. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (NEW)
  3. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri (NEW)
  4. Woody Allen, Wonder Wheel (-)
  5. Sean Baker and Chris Bergoch, The Florida Project (NEW)
    ---
  6. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird (NEW)
  7. Emily V. Gordon and Kumail Nanjiani, The Big Sick (-2)
  8. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (-6)
  9. Jordan Peele, Get Out (-)
  10. Simon Beaufoy, Battle of the Sexes (NEW)

DROPPED
The Current War (-8)
Suburbicon (-6)
Downsizing (-4)
The Killing of a Sacred Deer (-3)
Marshall (-1)

Best Adapted Screenplay

  1. James Ivory, Call Me By Your Name (+1)
  2. Dee Rees and Virgil Williams, Mudbound (+4)
  3. Liz Hannah and Josh Singer, The Post (-2)
  4. Richard Linklater and Darryl Ponicsan, Last Flag Flying (-1)
  5. Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber, The Disaster Artist (NEW)
    ---
  6. Aaron Sorkin, Molly's Game (+1)
  7. Peter Fellos, Armando Iannucci, Ian Martin, Fabien Nury, Theirry Robin and David Schneider, The Death of Stalin (NEW)
  8. Andrew Haigh, Lean on Pete (-)
  9. Sofia Coppola, The Beguiled (-3)
  10. Hampton Fancher and Michael Green, Blade Runner 2049 (-)

DROPPED
Victoria & Abdul (-7)
On Chesil Beach (-2)

Best Animated Feature

  1. Coco (-)
  2. Loving Vincent (NEW)
  3. The Breadwinner (-1)
  4. Cars 3 (-1)
  5. Despicable Me 3 (-)
    ---
  6. Ferdinand (-2)
  7. The Lego Batman Movie (-1)
  8. The Lego Ninjago (-)
  9. Leap! (NEW)
  10. Captain Underpants (-1)

DROPPED
The Star (-4)
My Entire High School Sinking into the Sea (-1)

Best Cinematography

  1. Hoyte Van Hoytema, Dunkirk (+1)
  2. Roger Deakins, Blade Runner 2049 (-1)
  3. Bruno Delbonnel, Darkest Hour (+1)
  4. Dan Laustsen, The Shape of Water (NEW)
  5. Janusz Kaminski, The Post (+2)
    ---
  6. Sayombhu Mukdeeprom, Call Me By Your Name (+2)
  7. Vittorio Storaro, Wonder Wheel (NEW)
  8. Rachel Morrison, Mudbound (NEW)
  9. Edward Lachmann, Wonderstruck (-)
  10. Masanobu Takayanagi, Hostiles (NEW)

DROPPED
Detroit (-8)
Breathe (-6)
mother! (-5)
The Beguiled (-1)

Best Costume Design

  1. Jacqueline Durran, Darkest Hour (+2)
  2. Consolata Boyle, Victoria & Abdul (-)
  3. Sandy Powell, Wonderstruck (NEW)
  4. Mark Bridges, Phantom Thread (-3)
  5. Ellen Miojnick, The Greatest Showman (+1)
    ---
  6. Jacqueline Durran, Beauty and the Beast (+1)
  7. Alexandra Byrne and Timothy Everest, Murder on the Orient Express (+1)
  8. Ann Roth, The Post (NEW)
  9. Lindy Hemming, Wonder Woman (+1)
  10. Mary Zophres, Battle of the Sexes (NEW)

DROPPED
The Beguiled (-7)
Marshall (-6)
The Current War (-3)

Best Film Editing

  1. Lee Smith, Dunkirk (-)
  2. Sidney Wolinsky, The Shape of Water (NEW)
  3. Valerio Bonelli, Darkest Hour (+3)
  4. Michael Kahn, The Post (-2)
  5. Bob Ducsay, Star Wars: The Last Jedi (+4)
    ---
  6. William Hoy and Stan Salfas, War for the Planet of the Apes (NEW)
  7. Pamela Martin, Battle of the Sexes (NEW)
  8. Joe Walker, Blade Runner 2049 (-4)
  9. Walter Fasano, Call Me By Your Name (NEW)
  10. Mako Kamitsuna, Mudbound (NEW)

DROPPED
Phantom Thread (-6)
The Current War (-4)
Baby Driver (-3)
mother! (-1)

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

  1. Anita Burger, David Malinkowski and Lucy Sibbick, Darkest Hour (-)
  2. Paula Fleet and Patricia Keighran, The Shape of Water (NEW)
  3. Flora Moody and Allison Sing, Star Wars: The Last Jedi (-1)
    ---
  4. Lizza Lawson, Jo-Ann MacNiel and Donald Mowat, Blade Runner 2049 (NEW)
  5. Jacqueline Bhavnani, Samantha Denyer, Sarah Kelly and Bradley Simms, Beauty and the Beast (-2)
  6. Haruyo Sawada and Torsten Witte, Battle of the Sexes (NEW)
  7. Sunday English, Gary English, Nicki Ledermann, Angela Levin,Gary Martori, Jerry Popolis, Rania Ribalow, Pamela S. Westmore and Nakoya Yancey, The Greatest Showman (-3)
  8. Jerry DeCarlo and Claus Lulla, Wonderstruck (-)
  9. Alexis Continente, Carol Hemming, Dana Kalder, Jutta Russell, Chiara Ugolini and Wakana Yoshihara, Murder on the Orient Express (-4)
  10. Sarah Craig, Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram, Debra Manou, Emily O'Quinn and Sean Sansom, It (NEW)

DROPPED
The Current War (-5)
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (-4)
Logan (-2)
mother! (-1)

Best Original Score

  1. Alexandre Desplat, The Shape of Water (+5)
  2. Hans Zimmer, Dunkirk (-)
  3. Dario Marianelli, Darkest Hour (-)
  4. John Williams, Star Wars: The Last Jedi (+4)
  5. Thomas Newman, Victoria & Abdul (-)
    ---
  6. John Williams, The Post (-5)
  7. Hans Zimmer, Blade Runner 2049 (-)
  8. Carter Burwell, Wonderstruck (NEW)
  9. John Debney, Benj Pasek and Justin Paul, The Greatest Showman (+1)
  10. Dustin O'Halloran, The Current War (-6)

DROPPED
Jonny Greenwood, Phantom Thread (-2)

Best Production Design

  1. Nathan Crowley, Dunkirk (+2)
  2. Paul D. Austerberry, The Shape of Water (+2)
  3. Sarah Greenwood, Darkest Hour (-2)
  4. Dennis Gassner, Blade Runner 2049 (-2)
  5. David J. Bomba, Mudbound (NEW)
    ---
  6. Nathan Crowley, The Greatest Showman (-)
  7. Aline Bonetto, Wonder Woman (NEW)
  8. Rick Heinrichs, Star Wars: The Last Jedi (NEW)
  9. Sarah Finley and Adam Squires, Victoria & Abdul (-)
  10. Rick Carter, The Post (NEW)

DROPPED
Phantom Thread (-6)
The Beguiled (-5)
The Current War (-4)
mother! (-1)

Best Sound Editing

  1. Richard King, Dunkirk (-)
  2. Matthew Wood, Star Wars: The Last Jedi (-)
  3. Will Files, War for the Planet of the Apes (NEW)
  4. Nathan Robitaille, The Shape of Water (NEW)
  5. Theo Green and Mark A. Mangini, Blade Runner 2049 (-2)
    ---
  6. Julian Slater, Baby Driver (-1)
  7. James Mather, Wonder Woman (NEW)
  8. Scott Hecker, Hostiles (NEW)
  9. Richard Hymns, The Post (-3)
  10. Justin Doyle, Coco (NEW)

DROPPED
Detroit (-7)
The Current War (-4)
Spider-Man: Homecoming (-3)
Beauty and the Beast (-2)
Darkest Hour (-1)

Best Sound Mixing

  1. Gregg Landaker, Gary Rizzo and Mark Weingarten, Dunkirk (-)
  2. David Parker and Michael Semanchick, Star Wars: The Last Jedi (-)
  3. Christian T. Cooke, Filip Hosek and Brad Zoern, The Shape of Water (NEW)
  4. Bill Bair, Will Files, Tom Lalley, Douglas Murray and Andy Nelson, War for the Planet of the Apes (NEW)
  5. Ron Barlett, Doug Hemphill and Mac Ruth, Blade Runner 2049 (-)
    ---
  6. Paul Munro, Wonder Woman (NEW)
  7. Gary Rydstrom,The Post (-2)
  8. Craig Berkey and Roger J. Sacdalan, Darkest Hour (-1)
  9. Tim Cavagin and Julian Slater, Baby Driver (-1)
  10. Christopher Boyes and Michael Semanchick, Coco (-)

DROPPED
Detroit (-7)
The Current War (-5)
Phantom Thread (-2)

Best Visual Effects

  1. Richard Bain, Ben Morris and Michael Mulholland, Star Wars: The Last Jedi (-)
  2. Dennis Berardi and Kristen Bligh, The Shape of Water (+4)
  3. Ryan Cook, Dan Lemmon, Joe Letteri and Erik Winquist, War for the Planet of the Apes (+3)
  4. Richard Clegg, Paul Lambert, Victor Muller and John Nelson, Blade Runner 2049 (-2)
  5. Andrew Jackson, Andrew Lockley and Tim McGovern, Dunkirk (-2)
    ---
  6. Frazer Churchill, Viktor Muller, Jessica Norman and Bill Westenhofer, Wonder Woman (+1)
  7. Kyle McCulloch, David Piombino, Kelly Port and Glen Pratt, Beauty and the Beast (-3)
  8. Dan Bethell, Theodore Bialek, Vincent Cirelli, Lou Pecora and Doug Spilatro, Spider-Man: Homecoming (-)
  9. Matthew Crnich, Ray McMaster, Kevin Andrew Smith, Doug Spilatro and Christopher Townsend, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (-)
  10. Vincent Cirelli, Jake Morrison, Brendan Seals, Alexis Wajsbrot and Chad Wiebe,Thor: Ragnarok (-)
September 18, 2017 /Andrew Carden
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