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2017 Oscar Nomination Predictions (December)

December 15, 2017 by Andrew Carden in Oscars

Time for another update, awards fans!

It has been a dizzying month since my November predictions, with game-changing Golden Globe and SAG nominations, plus a plethora of critics awards announcing their favorites of the year. Some wannabe-contenders, like Detroit, Last Flag Flying and Wonder Wheel, fell flat on their faces, while the likes of Call Me By Your Name, Get Out and Lady Bird have reaped much of the precursors love thus far.

Little, however, is truly set in stone when it comes to this year's Oscar nominations - so much can happen between now and January 5 (when AMPAS nominating opens to members), let alone Oscar nominations morning on January 23.

With that said, check out below my latest Oscar predictions, for the month of December. In parentheses you will find how many slots a contender has moved up or down since my November rankings. In a number of cases, I have eliminated a film or performer entirely. I will do one more, final set of predictions in January.

Have fun reading and, as always, feel free to comment with your own thoughts too!

Best Picture

  1. Lady Bird (+9)
  2. The Shape of Water (-)
  3. Dunkirk (-2)
  4. The Post (-)
  5. Get Out (+7)
  6. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (-3)
  7. Call Me By Your Name (-1)
  8. The Florida Project (+3)
  9. Mudbound (-1)
    ---
  10. Phantom Thread (-3)
  11. Coco (NEW)
  12. The Big Sick (+3)
  13. The Disaster Artist (-)
  14. Darkest Hour (-9)
  15. I, Tonya (-6)

DROPPED
Victoria & Abdul (-2)

Best Director

  1. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (-)
  2. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird (+9)
  3. Jordan Peele, Get Out (NEW)
  4. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (-2)
  5. Steven Spielberg, The Post (-2)
    ---
  6. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me By Your Name (+2)
  7. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (-3)
  8. Sean Baker, The Florida Project (NEW)
  9. Ridley Scott, All the Money in the World (NEW)
  10. Dee Rees, Mudbound (-3)

DROPPED
Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (-6)
Joe Wright, Darkest Hour (-5)
Craig Gillespie, I, Tonya (-2)

Best Lead Actor

  1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (-)
  2. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name (+1)
  3. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (-1)
  4. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (+2)
  5. Tom Hanks, The Post (-)
    ---
  6. Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out (NEW)
  7. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq. (+3)
  8. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman (NEW)
  9. Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes (NEW)
  10. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (-6)

DROPPED
Andrew Garfield, Breathe (-3)
Steve Carell, Last Flag Flying (-2)

Best Lead Actress

  1. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (+5)
  2. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (-1)
  3. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (-1)
  4. Meryl Streep, The Post (-1)
  5. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (-1)
    ---
  6. Judi Dench, Victoria & Abdul (-1)
  7. Jessica Chastain, Molly's Game (-1)
  8. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (+2)
  9. Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World (NEW)
  10. Annette Bening, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool (-2)

DROPPED
Daniela Vega, A Fantastic Woman (-2)

Best Supporting Actor

  1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (-)
  2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (-)
  3. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (+7)
  4. Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (-)
  5. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (-)
    ---
  6. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me By Your Name (-3)
  7. Armie Hammer, Call Me By Your Name (-1)
  8. Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World (NEW)
  9. Patrick Stewart, Logan (NEW)
  10. Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes (NEW)

DROPPED
Bryan Cranston, Last Flag Flying (-4)
Jason Mitchell, Mudbound (-3)
Ben Mendelsohn, Darkest Hour (-2)

Best Supporting Actress

  1. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (+1)
  2. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (-1)
  3. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (+1)
  4. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (+3)
  5. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (NEW)
    ---
  6. Tiffany Haddish, Girls Trip (+2)
  7. Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread (-1)
  8. Hong Chau, Downsizing (+1)
  9. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (-6)
  10. Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour (-5)

DROPPED
Tatiana Maslany, Stronger (-1)

Best Original Screenplay

  1. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird (+5)
  2. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (-1)
  3. Jordan Peele, Get Out (+5)
  4. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (-1)
  5. Liz Hannah and Josh Singer, The Post (-1)
    ---
  6. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (-1)
  7. Sean Baker and Chris Bergoch, The Florida Project (-)
  8. Steven Rogers, I, Tonya (+2)
  9. Emily V. Gordon and Kumail Nanjiani, The Big Sick (-)
  10. Anthony McCarten, Darkest Hour (-8)

Best Adapted Screenplay

  1. James Ivory, Call Me By Your Name (-)
  2. Dee Rees and Virgil Williams, Mudbound (-)
  3. Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber, The Disaster Artist (-)
  4. Stephen Chbosky, Steve Conrad, R.J. Palacio and Jack Thorne, Wonder (NEW)
  5. Shrabani Basu and Lee Hall, Victoria & Abdul (-)
    ---
  6. Aaron Sorkin, Molly's Game (+1)
  7. Rian Johnson, Star Wars: The Last Jedi (NEW)
  8. David Scarpa, All the Money in the World (NEW)
  9. Jason Fuchs, Allan Heinberg, William Moulton Marston and Zack Snyder, Wonder Woman (+1)
  10. Hampton Fancher and Michael Green, Blade Runner 2049 (NEW)

DROPPED
Angelina Jolie and Loung Ung, First They Killed My Father (-7)
Richard Linklater and Darryl Ponicsan, Last Flag Flying (-5)
Sofia Coppola, The Beguiled (-3)
John Pollono, Stronger (-2)

Best Animated Feature

  1. Coco (-)
  2. Loving Vincent (-)
  3. The Breadwinner (-)
  4. The Girl Without Hands (-)
  5. Despicable Me 3 (+2)
    ---
  6. Cars 3 (-1)
  7. Ferdinand (+1)
  8. The Boss Baby (NEW)
  9. The Lego Batman Movie (-3)
  10. The Big, Bad Fox and Other Tales (-)

DROPPED
Mary and the Witch's Flower (-2)

Best Documentary Feature

  1. Faces, Places (-)
  2. City of Ghosts (-)
  3. Last Man in Aleppo (NEW)
  4. Cries from Syria (+2)
  5. Jane (NEW)
    ---
  6. L.A. 92 (+1)
  7. Abacus: Small Enough to Jail (+3)
  8. Ex Libris (-5)
  9. Icarus (NEW)
  10. Unrest (NEW)

DROPPED
Hell on Earth (-7)
Risk (-5)
Joan Didion: The Center Will Not Hold (-3)
The Life and Death of Marsha P. Johnson (-2)

Best Foreign Language Film

  1. A Fantastic Woman (Chile) (+1)
  2. In the Fade (Germany) (+4)
  3. Foxtrot (Israel) (+7)
  4. On Body and Soul (Hungary) (NEW)
  5. Loveless (Russia) (NEW)
    ---
  6. The Square (Sweden) (+2)
  7. Felicite (Senegal) (NEW)
  8. The Wound (South Africa) (NEW)
  9. The Insult (Lebanon) (NEW)

DROPPED
First They Killed My Father (Cambodia) (-10)
A Letter to the President (Afghanistan) (-8)
Her Love Boils Bathwater (Japan) (-7)
A Taxi Driver (South Korea) (-6)
BPM (Beats Per Minute) (France) (-4)
Summer 1993 (Spain) (-2)

Best Cinematography

  1. Hoyte Van Hoytema, Dunkirk (-)
  2. Dan Laustsen, The Shape of Water (+1)
  3. Janusz Kaminski, The Post (+3)
  4. Roger Deakins, Blade Runner 2049 (-2)
  5. Sayombhu Mukdeeprom, Call Me By Your Name (+2)
    ---
  6. Rachel Morrison, Mudbound (+3)
  7. Sean Baker, The Florida Project (NEW)
  8. Ben Davis, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (NEW)
  9. Bruno Delbonnel, Darkest Hour (-5)
  10. Edward Lachman, Wonderstruck (-)

DROPPED
Vittorio Storaro, Wonder Wheel (-3)

Best Costume Design

  1. Mark Bridges, Phantom Thread (-)
  2. Luis Sequeira, The Shape of Water (NEW)
  3. Ann Roth, The Post (+6)
  4. Jacqueline Durran, Beauty and the Beast (-)
  5. Lindy Hemming, Wonder Woman (+3)
    ---
  6. Ellen Miojnick, The Greatest Showman (-3)
  7. Alexandra Byrne and Timothy Everest, Murder on the Orient Express (-)
  8. Michael T. Boyle, Mudbound (NEW)
  9. Sandy Powell, Wonderstruck (-3)
  10. Stacey Battat, The Beguiled (-)

DROPPED
Jacqueline Durran, Darkest Hour (-9)
Consolata Boyle, Victoria & Abdul (-6)

Best Film Editing

  1. Lee Smith, Dunkirk (-)
  2. Michael Kahn, The Post (+2)
  3. Sidney Wolinsky, The Shape of Water (-1)
  4. Tatiana S. Riegel, I, Tonya (+4)
  5. Mako Kamitsuna, Mudbound (NEW)
    ---
  6. Bob Ducsay, Star Wars: The Last Jedi (-)
  7. Nick Houy, Lady Bird (NEW)
  8. Joe Walker, Blade Runner 2049 (+1)
  9. Walter Fasano, Call Me By Your Name (+1)
  10. Jon Gregory, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (-7)

DROPPED
Valerio Bonelli, Darkest Hour (-6)
William Hoy and Stan Salfas, War for the Planet of the Apes (-4)

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

  1. Anita Burger, David Malinkowski and Lucy Sibbick, Darkest Hour (-)
  2. Paula Fleet, Mike Hill, Shane Mahan and Jordan Samuel, The Shape of Water (-)
  3. Mary Everett, Bill Myer and Teresa Vest, I, Tonya (+2)
    ---
  4. J.D. Bowers, Megan Harkness, Alisa MacMillan and Robert A. Pandini, Wonder (NEW)
  5. Sunday English, Gary English, Nicki Ledermann, Angela Levin,Gary Martori, Jerry Popolis, Rania Ribalow, Pamela S. Westmore and Nakoya Yancey, The Greatest Showman (-2)
  6. Paul Engelen and Jon Henry Gordon, Phantom Thread (+2)
  7. Flora Moody and Allison Sing, Star Wars: The Last Jedi (-3)
  8. Gloria Pasqua Casny and Joel Harlow, Logan (NEW)
  9. Alexis Continente, Carol Hemming, Dana Kalder, Jutta Russell, Chiara Ugolini and Wakana Yoshihara, Murder on the Orient Express (-3)
  10. Jenny Shircore, Beauty and the Beast (-1)

DROPPED
Donald Mowat and Kerry Warn, Blade Runner 2049 (-4)
Sarah Craig, Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram, Debra Manou, Emily O'Quinn and Sean Sansom, It (-1)

Best Original Score

  1. Alexandre Desplat, The Shape of Water (-)
  2. Hans Zimmer, Dunkirk (+2)
  3. Jonny Greenwood, Phantom Thread (+4)
  4. Michael Giacchino, Coco (+4)
  5. Carter Burwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (+1)
    ---
  6. John Williams, The Post (NEW)
  7. John Williams, Star Wars: The Last Jedi (-4)
  8. Thomas Newman, Victoria & Abdul (-3)
  9. John Debney, Benj Pasek and Justin Paul, The Greatest Showman (-)
  10. Dario Marianelli, Darkest Hour (-8)

DROPPED
Hans Zimmer, Blade Runner 2049 (-1)

Best Original Song (my first stab at this!)

  1. "Remember Me," Coco
  2. "This Is Me," The Greatest Showman
  3. "Mighty River," Mudbound
  4. "Prayers for This World," Cries from Syria
  5. "Evermore," Beauty and the Beast
    ---
  6. "The Mystery of Love," Call Me By Your Name
  7. "Come Alive," The Greatest Showman
  8. "Stand Up for Something," Marshall
  9. "There's Something Special," Despicable Me 3
  10. "Truth to Power," An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power

Best Production Design

  1. Paul D. Austerberry, The Shape of Water (+1)
  2. Nathan Crowley, Dunkirk (-1)
  3. Dennis Gassner, Blade Runner 2049 (-)
  4. Veronique Melery and Mark Tidesley, Phantom Thread (+2)
  5. David J. Bomba, Mudbound (+2)
    ---
  6. Nathan Crowley, The Greatest Showman (-)
  7. Sarah Greenwood and Katie Spencer, Beauty and the Beast (+3)
  8. Rick Heinrichs, Star Wars: The Last Jedi (+1)
  9. Aline Bonetto, Wonder Woman (-1)
  10. Sarah Greenwood, Darkest Hour (-6)

Best Sound Editing

  1. Richard King, Dunkirk (-)
  2. Matthew Wood, Star Wars: The Last Jedi (-)
  3. Nathan Robitaille, The Shape of Water (-)
  4. Julian Slater, Baby Driver (-)
  5. Will Files, War for the Planet of the Apes (-)
    ---
  6. Justin Doyle, Coco (+2)
  7. Theo Green and Mark A. Mangini, Blade Runner 2049 (-1)
  8. James Mather, Wonder Woman (+1)
  9. Paul Carter and Becki Ponting, The Greatest Showman (-2)
  10. Richard Hymns, The Post (-)

Best Sound Mixing

  1. Gregg Landaker, Gary Rizzo and Mark Weingarten, Dunkirk (-)
  2. David Parker and Michael Semanchick, Star Wars: The Last Jedi (-)
  3. Christian T. Cooke, Filip Hosek and Brad Zoern, The Shape of Water (-)
  4. Christopher Boyes and Michael Semanchick, Coco (+1)
  5. Tim Cavagin and Julian Slater, Baby Driver (+5)
    ---
  6. Bill Bair, Will Files, Tom Lalley, Douglas Murray and Andy Nelson, War for the Planet of the Apes (-2)
  7. Ron Barlett, Doug Hemphill and Mac Ruth, Blade Runner 2049 (-1)
  8. Paul Munro, Wonder Woman (+1)
  9. Tod A. Maitland, Jason Stasium and Dan White, The Greatest Showman (-1)
  10. Gary Rydstrom,The Post (-3)

Best Visual Effects

  1. Richard Bain, Ben Morris and Michael Mulholland, Star Wars: The Last Jedi (-)
  2. Richard Clegg, Paul Lambert, Victor Muller and John Nelson, Blade Runner 2049 (-)
  3. Dennis Berardi and Kristen Bligh, The Shape of Water (+1)
  4. Andrew Jackson, Andrew Lockley and Tim McGovern, Dunkirk (+2)
  5. Ryan Cook, Dan Lemmon, Joe Letteri and Erik Winquist, War for the Planet of the Apes (-2)
    ---
  6. Vincent Cirelli, Jake Morrison, Brendan Seals, Alexis Wajsbrot and Chad Wiebe,Thor: Ragnarok (-1)
  7. Frazer Churchill, Viktor Muller, Jessica Norman and Bill Westenhofer, Wonder Woman (-)
  8. Berj Bannayan, Martyn Culpitt and Chas Jarrett, Logan (NEW)
  9. Kyle McCulloch, David Piombino, Kelly Port and Glen Pratt, Beauty and the Beast (-1)
  10. Francois Dumoulin, Martin Hill, Marc Jouveneau and Joe Letteri, Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets (NEW)

DROPPED
Dan Bethell, Theodore Bialek, Vincent Cirelli, Lou Pecora and Doug Spilatro, Spider-Man: Homecoming (-2)
Matthew Crnich, Ray McMaster, Kevin Andrew Smith, Doug Spilatro and Christopher Townsend, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (-1)

 

December 15, 2017 /Andrew Carden
Oscars 2017, Oscars
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