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2017 Oscar Nomination Predictions (November)

November 01, 2017 by Andrew Carden in Oscars

Aloha, my fellow Oscar aficionados!

Over the past month, since my October predictions, the following events have gone down in this awesome and unpredictable awards season:

  • Trailers (at last!) dropped for Oscar contenders I, Tonya and Phantom Thread.
     
  • The Gotham Awards bestowed heaps of love upon Call Me By Your Name, The Florida Project, Get Out, I, Tonya and Lady Bird with its nominations.
     
  • Woody Allen's Wonder Wheel premiered to a so-so reception over at the New York Film Festival. With Best Actress probably too crowded for Kate Winslet to make the cut, is the film's only real Oscar prayer now in Best Cinematography?
     
  • The Weinstein Company pushed The Current War back to 2018 (not that early reviews for the Benedict Cumberbatch pic were so hot to begin with).
     
  • Not that either film was poised for much Oscar success but dismal box office receipts (despite warm reviews) certainly won't be helping the awards season hopes of Marshall and Professor Marston and the Wonder Women.
     
  • George Clooney's wannabe-awards season contender Suburbicon? Yeesh.
     
  • Oh, and if you had Kevin Spacey in your Best Supporting Actor predictions for All the Money in the World...probably time to ditch him.

Please see below my latest set of Oscar predictions, for the month of November. In parentheses you will find how many slots a contender has moved up or down since my last rankings. In a number of cases, I have dropped a film or performer entirely.

Enjoy reading and, as always, feel free to comment with your own thoughts as well!

Best Picture

  1. Dunkirk (-)
  2. The Shape of Water (-)
  3. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (+2)
  4. The Post (-1)
  5. Darkest Hour (-1)
  6. Call Me By Your Name (-)
  7. Phantom Thread (+4)
  8. Mudbound (-)
  9. I, Tonya (NEW)
    ---
  10. Lady Bird (+2)
  11. The Florida Project (-4)
  12. Get Out (+2)
  13. The Disaster Artist (-4)
  14. Victoria & Abdul (NEW)
  15. The Big Sick (-2)

DROPPED
Coco (-5)
Wonder Wheel (-1)

Best Director

  1. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (-)
  2. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (-)
  3. Steven Spielberg, The Post (-)
  4. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (+1)
  5. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (+5)
    ---
  6. Joe Wright, Darkest Hour (-2)
  7. Dee Rees, Mudbound (-)
  8. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me By Your Name (-2)
  9. Craig Gillespie, I, Tonya (NEW)
  10. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird (NEW)

DROPPED
Sean Baker, The Florida Project (-3)
Denis Villeneuve, Blade Runner 2049 (-2)

Best Lead Actor

  1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (-)
  2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (+4)
  3. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name (-1)
  4. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (-)
  5. Tom Hanks, The Post (-2)
    ---
  6. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (+1)
  7. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman (NEW)
  8. Andrew Garfield, Breathe (-2)
  9. Steve Carell, Last Flag Flying (-1)
  10. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq. (-)

DROPPED
Harry Dean Stanton, Lucky (-2)

Best Lead Actress

  1. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (-)
  2. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (-)
  3. Meryl Streep, The Post (-)
  4. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (NEW)
  5. Judi Dench, Victoria & Abdul (-)
    ---
  6. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (+3)
  7. Jessica Chastain, Molly's Game (-3)
  8. Annette Bening, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool (-)
  9. Daniela Vega, A Fantastic Woman (NEW)
  10. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (-3)

DROPPED
Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (-5)

Best Supporting Actor

  1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (-)
  2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (-)
  3. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me By Your Name (-)
  4. Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (NEW)
  5. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (-2)
    ---
  6. Armie Hammer, Call Me By Your Name (-)
  7. Bryan Cranston, Last Flag Flying (+1)
  8. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound (+2)
  9. Ben Mendelsohn, Darkest Hour (-4)
  10. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (-1)

DROPPED
Dustin Hoffman, The Meyerowitz Stories (-4)

Best Supporting Actress

  1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (+2)
  2. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (-)
  3. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (-2)
  4. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (-)
  5. Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour (-)
    ---
  6. Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread (NEW)
  7. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (-1)
  8. Tiffany Haddish, Girls Trip (NEW)
  9. Hong Chau, Downsizing (-)
  10. Tatiana Maslany, Stronger (-3)

DROPPED
Claire Foy, Breathe (-3)
Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (-1)

Best Original Screenplay

  1. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (-)
  2. Anthony McCarten, Darkest Hour (-)
  3. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (-)
  4. Liz Hannah and Josh Singer, The Post (-)
  5. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (+5)
    ---
  6. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird (-)
  7. Sean Baker and Chris Bergoch, The Florida Project (-2)
  8. Jordan Peele, Get Out (+1)
  9. Emily V. Gordon and Kumail Nanjiani, The Big Sick (-1)
  10. Steven Rogers, I, Tonya (NEW)

DROPPED
Woody Allen, Wonder Wheel (-4)

Best Adapted Screenplay

  1. James Ivory, Call Me By Your Name (-)
  2. Dee Rees and Virgil Williams, Mudbound (-)
  3. Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber, The Disaster Artist (+1)
  4. Angelina Jolie and Loung Ung, First They Killed My Father (-1)
  5. Shrabani Basu and Lee Hall, Victoria & Abdul (NEW)
    ---
  6. Richard Linklater and Darryl Ponicsan, Last Flag Flying (-1)
  7. Aaron Sorkin, Molly's Game (-1)
  8. Sofia Coppola, The Beguiled (-1)
  9. John Pollono, Stronger (-1)
  10. Jason Fuchs, Allan Heinberg, William Moulton Marston and Zack Snyder, Wonder Woman (-1)

DROPPED
Matt Greenhalgh and Peter Turner, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool (-1)

Best Animated Feature

  1. Coco (-)
  2. Loving Vincent (-)
  3. The Breadwinner (-)
  4. The Girl Without Hands (-)
  5. Cars 3 (-)
    ---
  6. The Lego Batman Movie (+2)
  7. Despicable Me 3 (-1)
  8. Ferdinand (-1)
  9. Mary and the Witch's Flower (-)
  10. The Big, Bad Fox and Other Tales (NEW)

DROPPED
The Lego Ninjago (-1)

Best Documentary Feature

  1. Faces, Places (+1)
  2. City of Ghosts (-1)
  3. Ex Libris (-)
  4. Hell on Earth (-)
  5. Risk (-)
    ---
  6. Cries from Syria (-)
  7. L.A. 92 (-)
  8. Joan Didion: The Center Will Not Hold (+2)
  9. The Life and Death of Marsha P. Johnson (-1)
  10. Abacus (-1)

Best Foreign Language Film

  1. First They Killed My Father (Cambodia) (-)
  2. A Fantastic Woman (Chile) (-)
  3. A Letter to the President (Afghanistan) (-)
  4. Her Love Boils Bathwater (Japan) (-)
  5. A Taxi Driver (South Korea) (-)
    ---
  6. In the Fade (Germany) (-)
  7. BPM (Beats Per Minute) (France) (NEW)
  8. The Square (Sweden) (-1)
  9. Summer 1993 (Spain) (+1)
  10. Foxtrot (Israel) (NEW)

DROPPED
Scary Mother (Georgia) (-3)
The Train of Salt and Sugar (Mozambique) (-2)

Best Cinematography

  1. Hoyte Van Hoytema, Dunkirk (-)
  2. Roger Deakins, Blade Runner 2049 (-)
  3. Dan Laustsen, The Shape of Water (-)
  4. Bruno Delbonnel, Darkest Hour (-)
  5. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (NEW)
    ---
  6. Janusz Kaminski, The Post (-)
  7. Sayombhu Mukdeeprom, Call Me By Your Name (-)
  8. Vittorio Storaro, Wonder Wheel (-3)
  9. Rachel Morrison, Mudbound (-1)
  10. Edward Lachman, Wonderstruck (-1)

DROPPED
Masanobu Takayanagi, Hostiles (-1)

Best Costume Design

  1. Mark Bridges, Phantom Thread (+6)
  2. Jacqueline Durran, Darkest Hour (-1)
  3. Ellen Miojnick, The Greatest Showman (-1)
  4. Jacqueline Durran, Beauty and the Beast (-1)
  5. Consolata Boyle, Victoria & Abdul (-1)
    ---
  6. Sandy Powell, Wonderstruck (-1)
  7. Alexandra Byrne and Timothy Everest, Murder on the Orient Express (-1)
  8. Lindy Hemming, Wonder Woman (+2)
  9. Ann Roth, The Post (-)
  10. Stacey Battat, The Beguiled (NEW)

DROPPED
Suzy Benzinger, Wonder Wheel (-3)

Best Film Editing

  1. Lee Smith, Dunkirk (-)
  2. Sidney Wolinsky, The Shape of Water (-)
  3. Jon Gregory, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (NEW)
  4. Michael Kahn, The Post (+1)
  5. Valerio Bonelli, Darkest Hour (-1)
    ---
  6. Bob Ducsay, Star Wars: The Last Jedi (-1)
  7. William Hoy and Stan Salfas, War for the Planet of the Apes (-1)
  8. Tatiana S. Riegel, I, Tonya (NEW)
  9. Joe Walker, Blade Runner 2049 (-)
  10. Walter Fasano, Call Me By Your Name (-1)

DROPPED
Mako Kamitsuna, Mudbound (-2)

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

  1. Anita Burger, David Malinkowski and Lucy Sibbick, Darkest Hour (-)
  2. Paula Fleet and Patricia Keighran, The Shape of Water (-)
  3. Sunday English, Gary English, Nicki Ledermann, Angela Levin,Gary Martori, Jerry Popolis, Rania Ribalow, Pamela S. Westmore and Nakoya Yancey, The Greatest Showman (-)
    ---
  4. Flora Moody and Allison Sing, Star Wars: The Last Jedi (-)
  5. Mary Everett, Bill Myer and Teresa Vest, I, Tonya (+2)
  6. Alexis Continente, Carol Hemming, Dana Kalder, Jutta Russell, Chiara Ugolini and Wakana Yoshihara, Murder on the Orient Express (-1)
  7. Lizza Lawson, Jo-Ann MacNiel and Donald Mowat, Blade Runner 2049 (-1)
  8. Paul Engelen and Jon Henry Gordon, Phantom Thread (NEW)
  9. Jacqueline Bhavnani, Samantha Denyer, Sarah Kelly and Bradley Simms, Beauty and the Beast (-1)
  10. Sarah Craig, Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram, Debra Manou, Emily O'Quinn and Sean Sansom, It (-)

DROPPED
Haruyo Sawada and Torsten Witte, Battle of the Sexes (-1)

Best Original Score

  1. Alexandre Desplat, The Shape of Water (-)
  2. Dario Marianelli, Darkest Hour (-)
  3. John Williams, Star Wars: The Last Jedi (-)
  4. Hans Zimmer, Dunkirk (-)
  5. Thomas Newman, Victoria & Abdul (-)
    ---
  6. Carter Burwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (-)
  7. Jonny Greenwood, Phantom Thread (NEW)
  8. Michael Giacchino, Coco (-1)
  9. John Debney, Benj Pasek and Justin Paul, The Greatest Showman (+1)
  10. Hans Zimmer, Blade Runner 2049 (-1)

DROPPED
John Williams, The Post (-3)

Best Production Design

  1. Nathan Crowley, Dunkirk (-)
  2. Paul D. Austerberry, The Shape of Water (-)
  3. Dennis Gassner, Blade Runner 2049 (+1)
  4. Sarah Greenwood, Darkest Hour (-1)
  5. Nathan Crowley, The Greatest Showman (+1)
    ---
  6. Veronique Melery and Mark Tidesley, Phantom Thread (NEW)
  7. David J. Bomba, Mudbound (-2)
  8. Aline Bonetto, Wonder Woman (-)
  9. Rick Heinrichs, Star Wars: The Last Jedi (-)
  10. Sarah Greenwood and Katie Spencer, Beauty and the Beast (NEW)

DROPPED
Santo Loquasto, Wonder Wheel (-4)
Rick Carter, The Post (-2)

Best Sound Editing

  1. Richard King, Dunkirk (-)
  2. Matthew Wood, Star Wars: The Last Jedi (-)
  3. Will Files, War for the Planet of the Apes (-)
  4. Nathan Robitaille, The Shape of Water (-)
  5. Julian Slater, Baby Driver (-)
    ---
  6. Theo Green and Mark A. Mangini, Blade Runner 2049 (-)
  7. Paul Carter and Becki Ponting, The Greatest Showman (NEW)
  8. Justin Doyle, Coco (-1)
  9. James Mather, Wonder Woman (-1)
  10. Richard Hymns, The Post (-)

DROPPED
Scott Hecker, Hostiles (-2)

Best Sound Mixing

  1. Gregg Landaker, Gary Rizzo and Mark Weingarten, Dunkirk (-)
  2. David Parker and Michael Semanchick, Star Wars: The Last Jedi (-)
  3. Christian T. Cooke, Filip Hosek and Brad Zoern, The Shape of Water (-)
  4. Bill Bair, Will Files, Tom Lalley, Douglas Murray and Andy Nelson, War for the Planet of the Apes (-)
  5. Christopher Boyes and Michael Semanchick, Coco (-)
    ---
  6. Ron Barlett, Doug Hemphill and Mac Ruth, Blade Runner 2049 (-)
  7. Gary Rydstrom,The Post (-)
  8. Tod A. Maitland, Jason Stasium and Dan White, The Greatest Showman (NEW)
  9. Paul Munro, Wonder Woman (-1)
  10. Tim Cavagin and Julian Slater, Baby Driver (-1)

DROPPED
Craig Berkey and Roger J. Sacdalan, Darkest Hour (-1)

Best Visual Effects

  1. Richard Bain, Ben Morris and Michael Mulholland, Star Wars: The Last Jedi (-)
  2. Richard Clegg, Paul Lambert, Victor Muller and John Nelson, Blade Runner 2049 (+2)
  3. Ryan Cook, Dan Lemmon, Joe Letteri and Erik Winquist, War for the Planet of the Apes (+1)
  4. Dennis Berardi and Kristen Bligh, The Shape of Water (-2)
  5. Vincent Cirelli, Jake Morrison, Brendan Seals, Alexis Wajsbrot and Chad Wiebe,Thor: Ragnarok (+3)
    ---
  6. Andrew Jackson, Andrew Lockley and Tim McGovern, Dunkirk (-1)
  7. Frazer Churchill, Viktor Muller, Jessica Norman and Bill Westenhofer, Wonder Woman (-1)
  8. Kyle McCulloch, David Piombino, Kelly Port and Glen Pratt, Beauty and the Beast (-1)
  9. Dan Bethell, Theodore Bialek, Vincent Cirelli, Lou Pecora and Doug Spilatro, Spider-Man: Homecoming (-1)
  10. Matthew Crnich, Ray McMaster, Kevin Andrew Smith, Doug Spilatro and Christopher Townsend, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (-1)
November 01, 2017 /Andrew Carden
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