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2016 Oscar Nomination Predictions (December)

December 16, 2016 by Andrew Carden in Oscars

Aloha, awards fans! It has been one hell of a month since my last set of Oscar predictions, with race-altering Golden Globe and SAG nominations, plus a heap of critics awards announcing their favorites of the year. Some wannabe-contenders, like Allied and Rules Don't Apply, fell flat on their faces, both critically and financially, while the likes of La La Land, Manchester By the Sea and Moonlight steamrolled their way through the precursors thus far. Little, however, is truly set in stone when it comes to this year's Oscar nominations - so much can happen between now and January 5 (when AMPAS nominating opens to members), let alone Oscar nominations morning on January 24.

With that said, please check out below my latest Oscar predictions, for the month of December. In parentheses you will find how many slots a contender has moved up or down since my November rankings. In a number of cases, I have eliminated a film or performer entirely. I will do one more, final set of predictions in January.

Have fun and, as always, feel free to comment with your own thoughts too!

Best Picture

  1. La La Land (-)
  2. Moonlight (+4)
  3. Manchester by the Sea (+1)
  4. Lion (+8)
  5. Arrival (-2)
  6. Fences (+1)
  7. Hidden Figures (+2)
  8. Silence (-3)
  9. Hacksaw Ridge (NEW)
    ---
  10. Hell or High Water (NEW)
  11. Loving (-3)
  12. Jackie (-10)
  13. Nocturnal Animals (+1)
  14. Sully (-1)
  15. Florence Foster Jenkins (NEW)

DROPPED
Rules Don't Apply (-6)
20th Century Women (-5)
Allied (-1)

Best Director

  1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (-)
  2. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (+4)
  3. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (+3)
  4. Martin Scorsese, Silence (-1)
  5. Denis Villanueve, Arrival (-3)
    ---
  6. Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge (NEW)
  7. Garth Davis, Lion (NEW)
  8. David Mackenzie, Hell or High Water (NEW)
  9. Pablo Larrain, Jackie (-5)
  10. Clint Eastwood, Sully (-1)

DROPPED
Denzel Washington, Fences (-4)
Warren Beatty, Rules Don't Apply (-3)
Jeff Nichols, Loving (-1)

Best Lead Actor

  1. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (-)
  2. Denzel Washington, Fences (-)
  3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (-)
  4. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (NEW)
  5. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge (-)
    ---
  6. Joel Edgerton, Loving (-2)
  7. Colin Farrell, The Lobster (NEW)
  8. Ryan Reynolds, Deadpool (NEW)
  9. Tom Hanks, Sully (-2)
  10. Michael Keaton, The Founder (-3)

DROPPED:
Warren Beatty, Rules Don't Apply (-5)
Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals (-2)
Robert De Niro, The Comedian (-1)

Best Lead Actress

  1. Natalie Portman, Jackie (+1)
  2. Emma Stone, La La Land (-1)
  3. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (+2)
  4. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (+5)
  5. Amy Adams, Arrival (-1)
    ---
  6. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (-3)
  7. Ruth Negga, Loving (-1)
  8. Hailee Steinfeld, The Edge of Seventeen (NEW)
  9. Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train (NEW)
  10. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (-2)

DROPPED
Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (-4)
Kate Beckinsale, Love & Friendship (-1)

Best Supporting Actor

  1. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (+4)
  2. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (+4)
  3. Dev Patel, Lion (+6)
  4. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (-2)
  5. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (-1)
    ---
  6. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (+2)
  7. Issey Ogata, Silence (NEW)
  8. Ben Foster, Hell or High Water (NEW)
  9. Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Nocturnal Animals (NEW)
  10. Simon Helberg, Florence Foster Jenkins (NEW)

DROPPED
Liam Neeson, Silence (-11)
Peter Sarsgaard, Jackie (-8)
Adam Driver, Silence (-4)
Stephen Henderson, Fences (-1)

Best Supporting Actress

  1. Viola Davis, Fences (+2)
  2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (-)
  3. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (-2)
  4. Nicole Kidman, Lion (+1)
  5. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (+1)
    ---
  6. Lily Gladstone, Certain Women (NEW)
  7. Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures (NEW)
  8. Molly Shannon, Other People (+2)
  9. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (-5)
  10. Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls (-1)

DROPPED
Lupita Nyong'o, Queen of Katwe (-4)
Annette Bening, Rules Don't Apply (-3)

Best Original Screenplay

  1. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (-)
  2. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (+2)
  3. Taylor Sheridan, Hell or High Water (NEW)
  4. Matt Ross, Captain Fantastic (NEW)
  5. Noah Oppenheim, Jackie (-4)
    ---
  6. Nicholas Martin, Florence Foster Jenkins (NEW)
  7. Efthimis Filippou and Yorgos Lanthimos, The Lobster (NEW)
  8. Mike Mills, 20th Century Women (-1)
  9. Jared Bush, Byron Howard, Phil Johnston, Jennifer Lee, Rich Moore, Jim Reardon and Josie Trinidad, Zootopia (-1)
  10. Peter Berg, Matt Cook and Joshua Zetumer, Patriots Day (NEW)

DROPPED
Barry Jenkins and Tarell McCraney, Moonlight (-10)
Jeff Nichols, Loving (-8)
Warren Beatty, Rules Don't Apply (-5)
Ron Clements and John Musker, Moana (-2)
Asghar Farhadi, The Salesman (-1)

Best Adapted Screenplay

  1. Barry Jenkins and Tarell McCraney, Moonlight (NEW)
  2. August Wilson, Fences (-1)
  3. Luke Davies, Lion (+3)
  4. Jeff Nichols, Loving (NEW)
  5. Jay Cocks, Silence (-2)
    ---
  6. Eric Heisserer, Arrival (-4)
  7. Allison Schroeder, Hidden Figures (-2)
  8. Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals (-4)
  9. Todd Komarnicki, Sully (+1)
  10. Andrew Knight and Robert Schenkkan, Hacksaw Ridge (NEW)

DROPPED
Ben Affleck, Live by Night (-4)
Whit Stillman, Love & Friendship (-3)
David Birke, Elle (-2)

Best Animated Feature

  1. Zootopia (-)
  2. Moana (-)
  3. Kubo and the Two Strings (+3)
  4. Miss Hokusai (+4)
  5. The Red Turtle (-1)
    ---
  6. Sing (-3)
  7. Finding Dory (-2)
  8. The Little Prince (NEW)
  9. April and the Extraordinary World (-2)
  10. My Life as a Zucchini (NEW)

DROPPED
Sausage Party (-2)
The Secret Life of Pets (-1)

Best Cinematography

  1. Linus Sandgren, La La Land (-)
  2. James Laxton, Moonlight (+6)
  3. Rodrigo Prieto, Silence (+1)
  4. Bradford Young, Arrival (-2)
  5. Stephanie Fontaine, Jackie (-2)
    ---
  6. Seamus McGarvey, Nocturnal Animals (-1)
  7. Bill Pope, The Jungle Book (-1)
  8. Greig Fraser, Lion (NEW)
  9. Giles Nuttgens, Hell or High Water (NEW)
  10. Robert Richardson, Live by Night (-3)

DROPPED
Caleb Deschanel, Rules Don't Apply (-2)
Charlotte Bruus Christiansen, Fences (-1)

Best Costume Design

  1. Mary Zophres, La La Land (-)
  2. Madeline Fontaine, Jackie (-)
  3. Consolata Boyle, Florence Foster Jenkins (+3)
  4. Colleen Atwood, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (+3)
  5. Dante Ferretti, Silence (-2)
    ---
  6. Eimer Ni Mhaoldomhnaigh, Love & Friendship (-1)
  7. Seong-hie Ryu, The Handmaiden (NEW)
  8. Renee Ehrlich Kalfus, Hidden Figures (NEW)
  9. Lizzy Gardiner, Hacksaw Ridge (NEW)
  10. Sharen Davis, Fences (-2)

DROPPED
Albert Wolsky, Rules Don't Apply (-7)
Jacqueline West, Live by Night (-2)
Joanna Johnston, Allied (-1)

Best Film Editing

  1. Tom Cross, La La Land (-)
  2. Joi McMillon and Nat Sanders, Moonlight (+3)
  3. Jennifer Lame, Manchester by the Sea (+4)
  4. Thelma Schoonmaker, Silence (-2)
  5. Alexandre de Francheschi, Lion (+5)
    ---
  6. Joe Walker, Arrival (-3)
  7. Sebastián Sepúlveda, Jackie (-3)
  8. Joan Sobel, Nocturnal Animals (-2)
  9. Blu Murray, Sully (-)
  10. John Gilbert, Hacksaw Ridge (NEW)

DROPPED
Hughes Winborne, Fences (-3)

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

  1. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (-)
  2. Florence Foster Jenkins (-)
  3. Jackie (+1)
    ---
  4. Hail, Caesar! (+1)
  5. Hacksaw Ridge (NEW)
  6. Nocturnal Animals (NEW)
  7. Silence (-1)
  8. Love & Friendship (-1)
  9. Suicide Squad (NEW)
  10. La La Land (NEW)

DROPPED
Rules Don't Apply (-8)
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (-3)
Star Trek: Beyond (-2)
Live by Night (-1)

Best Original Score

  1. Justin Hurwitz, La La Land (+4)
  2. Dustin O’Halloran and Hauschka, Lion (NEW)
  3. Mica Levi, Jackie (-1)
  4. Alexandre Desplat, Florence Foster Jenkins (+3)
  5. John Williams, The BFG (+2)
    ---
  6. Michael Giacchino, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (-1)
  7. Abel Korzeniowski, Nocturnal Animals (NEW)
  8. Nicholas Britell, Moonlight (NEW)
  9. Mark Mancina, Moana (-6)
  10. Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, Patriots Day (NEW)

DROPPED
Johann Johansson, Arrival (-11)
Kim Allen Kluge and Katherine Kluge, Silence (-10)
Michael Giacchino, Zootopia (-5)
Thomas Newman, Finding Dory (-1)

Best Original Song

  1. "City of Stars," La La Land (-)
  2. "How Far I'll Go," Moana (+2)
  3. "Audition (The Fools Who Dream)," La La Land (-1)
  4. "We Know the Way," Moana (-2)
  5. "Victory," Hidden Figures (-)
    ---
  6. "Drive It Like You Stole It," Sing Street (NEW)
  7. "Can't Stop the Feeling," Trolls (+2)
  8. "A Letter to the Free," 13th (-1)
  9. "Faith," Sing (NEW)
  10. "The Rules Don't Apply," Rules Don't Apply (-)

DROPPED
"Go Now," Sing Street (-5)
"The Great Beyond, Sausage Party (-3)

Best Production Design

  1. David Wasco, La La Land (-)
  2. Dante Ferretti, Silence (-)
  3. Jean Rabasse, Jackie (-)
  4. Stuart Craig, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (+1)
  5. Christopher Glass, The Jungle Book (NEW)
    ---
  6. Alan MacDonald, Florence Foster Jenkins (NEW)
  7. Barry Robison, Hacksaw Ridge (NEW)
  8. Anna Rackard, Love & Friendship (-2)
  9. Jess Gonchor, Live by Night (-2)
  10. Patrice Vermette, Arrival (NEW)

DROPPED
Jeannine Oppewall, Rules Don't Apply (-7)
Gary Freeman, Allied (-2)
David Gropman, Fences (-1)

Best Sound Editing

  1. La La Land (-)
  2. Arrival (-)
  3. Hacksaw Ridge (NEW)
  4. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (-1)
  5. Sully (+3)
    ---
  6. Patriots Day (NEW)
  7. Deepwater Horizon (NEW)
  8. Captain America: Civil War (-2)
  9. Silence (-5)
  10. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (-5)

DROPPED
Passengers (-4)
Moana (-1)

Best Sound Mixing

  1. La La Land (-)
  2. Arrival (-)
  3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (+1)
  4. Sully (+4)
  5. Hacksaw Ridge (NEW)
    ---
  6. Zootopia (+1)
  7. Moana (-1)
  8. Silence (-5)
  9. Captain America: Civil War (-)
  10. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (-5)

DROPPED
Passengers (-1)

Best Visual Effects

  1. Arrival (-)
  2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (-)
  3. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (-)
  4. The Jungle Book (+1)
  5. Captain America: Civil War (+1)
    ---
  6. Sully (NEW)
  7. Deadpool (NEW)
  8. Doctor Strange (-1)
  9. Passengers (-4)
  10. Deepwater Horizon (NEW)

DROPPED
Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (-3)
A Monster Calls (-2)
Star Trek: Beyond (-1)

Best Documentary Feature

  1. 13th (-)
  2. Gleason (-)
  3. The Eagle Huntress (+2)
  4. I Am Not Your Negro (NEW)
  5. Fire at Sea (+1)
    ---
  6. The Ivory Game (NEW)
  7. Life, Animated (NEW)
  8. Cameraperson (NEW)
  9. O.J.: Made in America (NEW)
  10. Zero Days (NEW)

DROPPED
Lo and Behold, Reveries of the Connected World (-8)
Equal Means Equal (-7)
Miss Sharon Jones (-4)
By Sidney Lumet (-3)
The Beatles: Eight Days a Week - The Touring Years (-2)
Newtown (-1)

Best Foreign Language Film

  1. Toni Erdmann (Germany) (-)
  2. The Salesman (Iran) (-)
  3. Land of Mine (Denmark) (NEW)
  4. The King's Choice (Norway) (NEW)
  5. A Man Called Ove (Sweden) (NEW)
    ---
  6. My Life as a Zucchini (Switzerland) (NEW)
  7. It's Only the End of the World (Canada) (NEW)
  8. Tanna (Australia) (NEW)
  9. Paradise (Russia) (NEW)

DROPPED
Death in Sarajevo (Bosnia and Herzegovina) (-8)
Sand Storm (Israel) (-7)
Ma'Rosa (Phillippines) (-6)
Elle (France) (-5)
Julieta (Spain) (-4)
From Afar (Venezuela) (-3)
The Happiest Day in the Life of Olli Mäki (Finland) (-2)
Barakah Meets Barakah (Saudi Arabia) (-1)

December 16, 2016 /Andrew Carden
Oscars 2016, Oscars
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