2025 Oscar Nomination Predictions (October)

From most to least likely to earn a nomination:

Best Picture

1. One Battle After Another

2. Hamnet

3. Sentimental Value

4. Sinners

5. Wicked: For Good

6. Marty Supreme

7. It Was Just an Accident

8. The Secret Agent

9. Avatar: Fire and Ash

10. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
    —

11. Jay Kelly

12. No Other Choice

13. Rental Family

14. Bugonia

15. Frankenstein

Best Director

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another

2. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet

3. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value

4. Ryan Coogler, Sinners

5. Jafar Panah, It Was Just an Accident
   —

6. Kleber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent

7. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice

8. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme

9. Scott Cooper, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

10. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good

Best Actress

1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

2. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good

3. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value

4. Emma Stone, Bugonia

5. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee
   —

6. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another

7. Jennifer Lawrence, Die My Love

8. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

9. Sydney Sweeney, Christy

10. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt

Best Actor

1. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another

2. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme

3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

4. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent

5. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family
   —

6. George Clooney, Jay Kelly

7. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners

8. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia

9. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon

10. Will Arnett, Is This Thing On?

Best Supporting Actress

1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good

2. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value

3. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value

4. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

5. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another
   —

6. Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

7. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme

8. Odessa A'zion, Marty Supreme

9. Amy Madigan, Weapons

10. Jamie Lee Curtis, Ella McCay

Best Supporting Actor

1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value

2. Paul Mescal, Hamnet

3. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another

4. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

5. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another
   —

6. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly

7. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good

8. Delroy Lindo, Sinners

9. Josh O’Connor, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

10. Ben Foster, Christy

Best Original Screenplay

1. Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt, Sentimental Value

2. Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme

3. Jafar Panahi, Nader Saeivar, Shadmehr Rastin and Mehdi Mahmoudian, It Was Just an Accident

4. Ryan Coogler, Sinners

5. Noah Baumbach and Emily Mortimer, Jay Kelly
   —

6. Kleber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent

7. Will Arnett, Mark Chappell, Bradley Cooper and John Bishop, Is This Thing On?

8. Hikari and Stephen Blahut, Rental Family

9. Robert Kaplow, Blue Moon

10. Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvold, The Testament of Ann Lee

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another

2. Maggie O’Farrell and Chloe Zhao, Hamnet

3. Rian Johnson, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

4. Lee Ja-hye, Lee Kyoung-mi, Park Chan-wook and Don McKellar, No Other Choice

5. Scott Cooper, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
   —

6. Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar, Train Dreams

7. Will Tracy, Bugonia

8. Dana Fox and Winnie Holzman, Wicked: For Good

9. Nia DaCosta, Hedda

10. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein

Best International Feature

1. Sentimental Value (Norway)

2. It Was Just an Accident (France)

3. The Secret Agent (Brazil)

4. No Other Choice (South Korea)

5. Left-Handed Girl (Taiwan)
   —

6. The President’s Cake (Iraq)

7. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (Denmark)

8. The Voice of Hind Rajab (Tunisia)

9. Sound of Falling (Germany)

10. Sirāt (Spain)

Best Casting

1. Cassandra Kulukundis, One Battle After Another

2. Francine Maisler, Sinners

3. Bret Howe and Mary Vernieu, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

4. Yngvill Kolset Haga and Avy Kaufman, Sentimental Value

5. Nina Gold, Hamnet
   —

6. Francine Maisler, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

7. Jennifer Venditti, Marty Supreme

8. Tiffany Little Canfield and Bernard Telsey, Wicked: For Good

9. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident

10. Douglas Aibel and Nina Gold, Jay Kelly

Best Cinematography

1. Autumn Durald Arkapaw, Sinners

2. Dan Laustsen, Frankenstein

3. Michael Bauman, One Battle After Another

4. Lukasz Zal, Hamnet

5. Darius Khondji, Marty Supreme
   —

6. David Chambille, Nouvelle Vague

7. Robbie Ryan, Bugonia

8. Adolfo Veloso, Train Dreams

9. Claudio Miranda, F1

10. Russell Carpenter, Avatar: Fire and Ash

Best Costume Design

1. Paul Tazewell, Wicked: For Good

2. Ruth E. Carter, Sinners

3. Kate Hawley, Frankenstein

4. Malgosia Turzanska, Hamnet

5. Malgorzata Karpiuk, The Testament of Ann Lee
   —

6. Lindsay Pugh, Hedda

7. Colleen Atwood, One Battle After Another

8. Miyako Bellizzi, Marty Supreme

9. Colleen Atwood and Christine L. Cantella, Kiss of the Spider Woman

10. Pascaline Chavanne, Nouvelle Vague

Best Film Editing

1. Andy Jurgensen, One Battle After Another

2. Michael P. Shawver, Sinners

3. Ronald Bronstein, Marty Supreme

4. Stephen Mirrione, F1

5. Chloé Zhao and Affonso Gonçalves, Hamnet
   —

6. Olivier Bugge Coutté, Sentimental Value

7. Myron Kerstein, Wicked: For Good

8. Evan Schiff, Frankenstein

9. Kirk Baxter, A House of Dynamite

10. James Cameron, Nicolas De Toth, John Refoua, David Brenner and Stephen E. Rivkin, Avatar: Fire and Ash

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. The team from Wicked: For Good

2. The team from Frankenstein

3. The team from Sinners

4. The team from The Smashing Machine

5. The team from Bugonia
   —

6. The team from Christy

7. The team from Weapons

8. The team from Kiss of the Spider Woman

9. The team from One Battle After Another

10. The team from Hamnet

Best Production Design

1. Nathan Crowley and Lee Sandales, Wicked: For Good

2. Hannah Beachler and Monique Champagne, Sinners

3. Tamara Deverell and Shane Vieau, Frankenstein

4. Dylan Cole, Ben Procter and Vanessa Cole, Avatar: Fire and Ash

5. Fiona Crombie and Alice Felton, Hamnet
   —

6. Jack Fisk and Adam Willis, Marty Supreme

7. Florencia Martin and Anthony Carlino, One Battle After Another

8. Katia Wyszkop, Nouvelle Vague

9. Cara Bower and Stella Fox, Hedda

10. Scott Chambliss and Andrew Baseman, Kiss of the Spider Woman

Best Sound

1. The team from One Battle After Another

2. The team from Wicked: For Good

3. The team from Avatar: Fire and Ash

4. The team from Sinners

5. The team from F1
   —

6. The team from Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere

7. The team from Frankenstein

8. The team from Marty Supreme

9. The team from Warfare

10. The team from Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning

Best Visual Effects

1. The team from Avatar: Fire and Ash

2. The team from Wicked: For Good

3. The team from Sinners

4. The team from F1

5. The team from Frankenstein
   —

6. The team from Superman

7. The team from How to Train Your Dragon

8. The team from The Running Man

9. The team from The Fantastic Four: First Steps

10. The team from Tron: Ares

More categories to come!

2024 Oscar Winner Predictions

These strike me as the toughest categories to crack - races where I’m still wavering and devoid of any real confidence on the outcome:

Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actress
Best Original Screenplay
Best Documentary Feature
Best Film Editing
Best Sound

Conclave and Anora are so close for the top prize that I can’t help but simply split the difference and go with the former in Best Picture (despite its surprising Best Director snub) and latter in Director. I can just as easily fathom Anora taking both or Brady Corbet repeating his BAFTA win. (I don’t, however, have much faith in The Brutalist taking Picture, even if Corbet triumphs).

Best Actress rings of a true barn burner and not necessarily just between Demi Moore and Mikey Madison - with I’m Still Here as a surprise (and plenty deserving) Best Picture nominee, backed by the awards season masters at Sony Pictures Classics, there’s a legitimate case to be made for Fernanda Torres. It’s plausible Moore falls short ala past SAG-winning/BAFTA-losing veterans Julie Christie and Glenn Close but there’s no doubt more passion exists in AMPAS for The Substance than did for the likes of Away from Her and The Wife - and all of her precursor speeches have been knockouts. At the same time, it’s hard to fathom Madison losing if Anora is winning the top prize.

Even with Anora riding high in momentum, Best Original Screenplay looks awfully tight too, especially on the heels of A Real Pain’s BAFTA win. Do actors overwhelmingly vote for Jesse Eisenberg and put him over the top? Had his film scored a Best Picture nom, I’d probably predict him. If he does claim victory, A Real Pain will mark only the second film in Oscar history, after The Usual Suspects, to earn two nominations in total - one for acting, one for writing - and win both.

For much of the season, No Other Land seemed to have the makings of a Best Documentary Feature front-runner but that hasn’t really panned out. Instead, this rings of a race where any of the contenders could triumph.

Among the crafts, Best Film Editing feels the most unsettled. Odds are, its winner will match the Best Picture winner, so Conclave or Anora, though I don’t count Emilia Pérez out, even if it’s done at this point for the top prize. Best Sound is also tough to forecast - Dune: Part Two makes sense, in part because the first entry took this category, but this also presents the best opportunity to throw A Complete Unknown a bone and avoid an 0-for-8 shutout. Wicked has a real shot here too.

Beyond these super suspenseful showdowns - I’m not buying Timothée Chalamet as a truly daunting threat to Adrien Brody in Best Actor (and I predicted Chalamet at SAG). He’s at least, of course, more within striking distance than any of the hopeless competition facing Zoe Saldaña and Kieran Culkin.

Conclave will score Best Adapted Screenplay regardless of how Best Picture goes down. I do have I’m Still Here scoring the upset over Emilia Pérez in Best International Feature Film, though I’m not sure how much of a shock that’ll be at this point, given the former’s Best Picture nom and the latter’s deterioration. The crafts will spread the love but again, may be challenging to avoid a shutout for A Complete Unknown.

As for Best Original Song…I so wish I could predict Diane Warren finally triumphing on her 16th Oscar nom. I can’t quite get there - I still think “El Mal” takes it, in part because it’s a Zoe Saldaña showcase and she’s managed to escape her film’s collapse unscathed. But this is Warren’s best shot since 2015 and, barring a groundswell of love for Elton John, she’s probably in runner-up position.

All that said, here they are - final Oscar predictions, from most to least likely to win:

Best Picture

1. Conclave

2. Anora

3. The Brutalist

4. Wicked

5. The Substance

6. A Complete Unknown

7. I’m Still Here

8. Emilia Pérez

9. Nickel Boys

10. Dune: Part Two

Best Director

1. Sean Baker, Anora

2. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist

3. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance

4. James Mangold, A Complete Unknown

5. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez

Best Actress

1. Demi Moore, The Substance

2. Mikey Madison, Anora

3. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here

4. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked

5. Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez

Best Actor

1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist

2. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown

3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave

4. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing

5. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice

Best Supporting Actress

1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez

2. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave

3. Ariana Grande, Wicked

4. Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown

5. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist

Best Supporting Actor

1. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist

3. Yura Borisov, Anora

4. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown

5. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice

Best Original Screenplay

1. Sean Baker, Anora

2. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain

3. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance

4. Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvold, The Brutalist

5. Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum and Alex David, September 5

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Peter Straughan, Conclave

2. RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes, Nickel Boys

3. Jay Cocks and James Mangold, A Complete Unknown

4. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez

5. Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin and John “Divine G” Whitfield, Sing Sing

Best Animated Feature

1. The Wild Robot

2. Flow

3. Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

4. Memoir of a Snail

5. Inside Out 2

Best Documentary Feature

1. Porcelain War

2. Black Box Diaries

3. No Other Land

4. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat

5. Sugarcane

Best International Feature

1. I’m Still Here (Brazil)

2. Emilia Pérez (France)

3. Flow (Latvia)

4. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Germany)

5. The Girl with the Needle (Denmark)

Best Animated Short

1. Wander to Wonder

2. Yuck!

3. Beautiful Men

4. In the Shadow of the Cypress

5. Magic Candles

Best Documentary Short

1. The Only Girl in the Orchestra

2. I Am Ready, Warden

3. Death by Numbers

4. Incident

5. Instruments of a Beating Heart

Best Live Action Short

1. The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent

2. Anuja

3. A Lien

4. The Last Ranger

5. I’m Not a Robot

Best Cinematography

1. Lol Crawley, The Brutalist

2. Greig Fraser, Dune: Part Two

3. Jarin Blaschke, Nosferatu

4. Edward Lachman, Maria

5. Paul Guilhaume, Emilia Pérez

Best Costume Design

1. Paul Tazewell, Wicked

2. Linda Muir, Nosferatu

3. Lisy Christl, Conclave

4. Arianne Phillips, A Complete Unknown

5. Janty Yates and Dave Crossman, Gladiator II

Best Film Editing

1. Nick Emerson, Conclave

2. Sean Baker, Anora

3. Juliette Welfling, Emilia Pérez

4. Myron Kerstein, Wicked

5. Dávid Jancsóm, The Brutalist

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Pierre-Oliver Persin, Stéphanie Guillon and Marilyne Scarselli, The Substance

2. Frances Hannon, Sarah Nuth and Laura Blount, Wicked

3. Traci Loader, Suzanne Stokes-Munton and David White, Nosferatu

4. Julia Floch Carbonel, Emmanuel Janvier and Jean-Christophe Spadaccini, Emilia Pérez

5. Mike Marino, Sarah Graalman and Aaron Saucier, A Different Man

Best Original Score

1. Daniel Blumberg, The Brutalist

2. Volker Bertelmann, Conclave

3. John Powell and Stephen Schwartz, Wicked

4. Clément Ducol and Camille, Emilia Pérez

5. Kris Bowers, The Wild Robot

Best Original Song

1. “El Mal,” Emilia Pérez

2. “The Journey,” The Six Triple Eight

3. “Never Too Late,” Elton John: Never Too Late

4. “Like a Bird,” Sing Sing

5. "Mi Camino,” Emilia Pérez

Best Production Design

1. Nathan Crowley and Lee Sandales, Wicked

2. Craig Lathrop and Beatrice Brentnerová, Nosferatu

3. Judy Becker and Patricia Cuccia, The Brutalist

4. Suzie Davies and Roberta Federico, Conclave

5. Zsuzsanna Sipos, Shane Vieau and Patrice Vermette, Dune: Part Two

Best Sound

1. Gareth John, Richard King, Ron Bartlett and Doug Hemphill, Dune: Part Two

2. Ted Caplan, Tod Maitland, David Giammarco, Paul Massey and Donald Sylvester, A Complete Unknown

3. Simon Hayes, Nancy Nugent Title, Jack Dolman, Andy Nelson and John Marquis, Wicked

4. Erwan Kerzanet, Aymeric Devoldère, Maxence Dussère, Cyril Holtz and Niels Barletta, Emilia Pérez

5. Randy Thom, Gary A. Rizzo, Leff Lefferts and Brian Chumney, The Wild Robot

Best Visual Effects

1. Paul Lambert, Stephen James, Rhys Salcombe and Gerd Nefzer, Dune: Part Two

2. Pablo Helman, Jonathan Fawkner, Paul Corbould and David Shirk, Wicked

3. Erik Winquist, Stephen Unterfranz, Paul Story and Rodney Burke, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

4. Luke Miller, David Clayton, Keith Herft and Peter Stubbs, Better Man

5. Eric Barba, Nelson Sepulveda-Fauser, Daniel Macarin and Shane Patrick Mahan, Alien: Romulus

2024 SAG Awards Winner Predictions

Best Motion Picture Ensemble

1. Anora

2. Conclave

3. Wicked

4. A Complete Unknown

5. Emilia Pérez

Under different circumstances, Emilia Pérez could have proven a legit contender for the win here. Alas, that is no longer the case, even with Zoe Saldaña remaining a commanding favorite in her category.

Unlike Emilia Pérez, A Complete Unknown cannot be counted out. It does, after all, have three individual acting bids and has proven a critical and commercial hit - but this rings to me as more of a barn burner among the other trio of contenders.

Conclave has scored no shortage of Ensemble prizes this awards season, including from Critics’ Choice and National Board of Review. It was a little surprising to see Isabella Rossellini, a veteran who has worked with countless actors, miss in SAG Supporting Actress when she’s surfaced just about everywhere else. Could that be indicative of slightly soft support for the film? Maybe - or, more likely, maybe not, given SAG’s odd alphabetical bias, where an overwhelming majority (17 out of 20) of the acting nominees came from A-M on the ballot.

It was even more surprising to see Jonathan Bailey make the Supporting Actor cut here. Could this mean SAG voters are particularly head over heels for Wicked - or did Bailey simply benefit from being listed high on the ballot? Either way, as one of the year’s most resounding smashes, Wicked could take this.

Alas, the momentum is unquestionably with Anora, which scored Best Picture at Critics’ Choice and, more importantly, honors at PGA and DGA. For now, I remain unconvinced the film is a shoo-in for the Best Picture Oscar - but that may change if it prevails here. Frankly, I can fathom each of Anora, Conclave and Wicked winning about 30 percent of the vote here. It’s an all but impossible race to forecast with confidence. But one thing that is certain - the buzz around Anora, which may have slightly stalled after the Golden Globes, is accelerating at a far faster pace than the momentum for its competitors.

Best Female Actor in a Leading Role

1. Demi Moore, The Substance

2. Mikey Madison, Anora

3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked

4. Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl

5. Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez

SAG has a history of honoring beloved veteran actresses in this category, regardless of whether they go on to take the Oscar (e.g. Viola Davis, Glenn Close, Meryl Streep for Doubt and Julie Christie). Accordingly, Moore, who has been in the business for the past four decades, should be in good shape. That said, she marks the lone nomination for her film here, Anora is soaring and Madison just prevailed at BAFTA. Is the buzz robust enough for Madison to score the upset? Color me skeptical with this particular body but it’s hardly impossible.

Best Male Actor in a Leading Role

1. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown

2. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist

3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave

4. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing

5. Daniel Craig, Queer

Of the two Lead showdowns at SAG, this actually strikes me as the more suspenseful. There is a very real possibility Chalamet edges out Brody here, even if the latter remains favored at the Oscars. A Complete Unknown ran the table with nominations here, scoring four in total. Compare that to The Brutalist, which not only missed in Ensemble but Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress too. Of the 30 turns that have triumphed in this category, only five marked the lone nomination from their film (in Lead Actress, that number is double - 10). Perhaps the alphabet issue did Felicity Jones and Guy Pearce in and SAG affection for The Brutalist isn’t actually lackluster. Regardless, the love for A Complete Unknown is undeniable here and I’m going with Chalamet as the evening’s big (only?) surprise.

Best Female Actor in a Supporting Role

1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez

2. Ariana Grande, Wicked

3. Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown

4. Jamie Lee Curtis, The Last Showgirl

5. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson

I’d figured if Rossellini was to score a trophy somewhere, it may have been here. Alas, no. Saldaña has clearly escaped the Emilia Pérez downfall reasonably unscathed. In fact, many may feel sympathy for her having to deal with the shitshow surrounding her film. She remains an overwhelming favorite, in part because an alternative to her isn’t clear.

Best Male Actor in a Supporting Role

1. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

2. Yura Borisov, Anora

3. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown

4. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice

5. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked

The steamroll shall continue.

Best Motion Picture Stunt Ensemble

1. Wicked

2. Deadpool & Wolverine

3. The Fall Guy

4. Dune: Part Two

5. Gladiator II

This category could prove a nice way to honor Wicked when it’s not clearly favored on any of its other SAG bids. That said, it’s a race just as tough to forecast as the top prize. Anything could prevail, though the affection for Gladiator II has been fairly lackluster all awards season, plus the first Dune didn’t win this category - so I’m not inclined to predict either of them. The Fall Guy is about a stuntman and, accordingly, jam-packed with stunts. In theory, it should be a formidable contender but its commercial reception was so lukewarm that I hesitate to think it’ll prevail.

In the end, I’m seesawing between the other two, which just so happen to be two of the year’s biggest hits. Of the 17 films that have triumphed here, five have been comic book adaptations - with four consecutive wins coming from 2017 to 2020. Since then, Black Widow, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, The Batman, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 have fallen short. Deadpool & Wolverine was more of a box office phenomenon than all of those contenders, so perhaps it’ll resonate more with voters - but I’m ultimately going with Wicked, which I have a tough time fathoming going home completely empty-handed.

#ForYourConsiderationFriday - The Collection!

Hey there, fellow Oscar fans!

For those of you who follow me on Twitter, you may have noticed that, each Friday, I do a little hashtag called #ForYourConsiderationFriday, highlighting a past Oscar FYC ad. More often than not, it’s a vintage oldie, pulled from a past Hollywood Reporter or Variety, though I will, now and then, post a more recent ad if it piques my interest (hello, Best Supporting Actress hopeful Betty White in The Proposal).

Initially, I was merely doing this during the Oscar season itself. Eventually, I decided to make this a weekly thing - and will continue to do so moving forward.

This page will fulfill something I’ve been meaning to do for a while now - get these ads onto the blog, compiled into one place and categorized. I’ll keep this organized across nine fields - Best Picture/’All Categories’ (since countless films run one-pagers covering everything), Best Director, Best Actress, Best Actor, Best Supporting Actress, Best Supporting Actor, Best Screenplay, Best Score/Song and the rest of the craft categories.

I’ll be including all of the FYC ads I’ve posted to Twitter (a total of 319 thus far) and will upload each Friday’s new one as I go along. The goal, of course, is to ultimately amass the motherlode of Oscar FYC ads, which sounds like the most prolonged of processes at one post/week but hey, that’s 52 ads/year = 520 ads/decade. Not bad! ;)

2024 Oscar Nomination Predictions

From most to least likely to score a nomination:

Best Picture

1. Emilia Pérez

2. The Brutalist

3. Conclave

4. A Complete Unknown

5. Wicked

6. Anora

7. Dune: Part Two

8. A Real Pain

9. Sing Sing

10. The Substance
    —

11. September 5

12. I’m Still Here

13. Nickel Boys

14. All We Imagine as Light

15. Challengers

I’m feeling reasonably confident about the top eight here. Sing Sing’s constant underperformance this awards season continued with a PGA snub but I still slightly prefer its odds over The Substance, a film that’s had a far more robust precursors run than expected, yet still needs to contend with the notorious AMPAS aversion to horror. In a lineup of 10, however, I think The Substance can land a slot, especially with the likes of All We Imagine as Light and Nickel Boys not the most formidable of forces. At this point, if there’s a dark horse, it’s probably September 5, which has gone nowhere commercially but does have the PGA nom, suggesting at least some industry support.

Best Director

1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist

2. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez

3. Edward Berger, Conclave

4. Sean Baker, Anora

5. James Mangold, A Complete Unknown
   —

6. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light

7. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance

8. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two

9. Mike Leigh, Hard Truths

10. John M. Chu, Wicked

There is where I start to differ with other Oscar prognosticators in terms of The Substance strength. It’s my favorite film of the year and I sure hope Fargeat scores multiple nominations, including one here. But A Complete Unknown’s awards season buzz seemingly only strengthened during the AMPAS voting period, including a surprise DGA nom for Mangold (who has yet to surface as a nominee in this category). Perhaps, hopefully, my nervousness is misguided and Fargeat will, as most expect, make the cut. Or, if it’s not Fargeat, it’s an exciting curveball like Kapadia or Leigh. Alas, my gut says A Complete Unknown may be in for an overperformance.

Best Actress

1. Demi Moore, The Substance

2. Mikey Madison, Anora

3. Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez

4. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked

5. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here
   —

6. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths

7. Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl

8. Angelina Jolie, Maria

9. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl

10. Kate Winslet, Lee

I know, I know - the Golden Globes have zero crossover with AMPAS in terms of voters. Statistically, however, only two winners of the Drama Actress Golden Globe have not scored Oscar nominations. One was Revolutionary Road’s Kate Winslet, who instead earned a nomination for The Reader that year. The other was Madame Sousatzka’s Shirley MacLaine, who was part of a three-way tie at the 1988 Globes, with two of her co-winners ultimately making the Oscar cut. That’s it. So, despite incredibly formidable bids by Jean-Baptiste and Anderson especially, I can’t fathom Torres missing, especially with Sony Pictures Classics running a gangbusters campaign for her. Maybe it’s even Erivo who drops in the event someone else makes it?

Best Actor

1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist

2. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown

3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave

4. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing

5. Daniel Craig, Queer
   —

6. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man

7. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice

8. Hugh Grant, Heretic

9. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain

10. Glen Powell, Hit Man

That SAG nom was critical for Craig. Yes, he oddly missed BAFTA but that was an ideal scenario for Stan, who made their longlist for The Apprentice but not A Different Man, ensuring there was no threat of canceling himself out. There is no longlist here, so voters will need to make up their minds over which Stan turn to embrace - and I’m hardly convinced there is a consensus.

Best Supporting Actress

1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez

2. Ariana Grande, Wicked

3. Jamie Lee Curtis, The Last Showgirl

4. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave

5. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist
   —

6. Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown

7. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez

8. Margaret Qualley, The Substance

9. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson

10. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys

The rise of Curtis this season has been remarkable, albeit not entirely surprising, given how much she’s adored by her peers. It’ll just be wild when, as is likely the case, she scores a nom while Anderson, who is truly extraordinary in their picture, misses the cut. Despite the crowded nature of this category (Joan Chen, Carol Kane and Natasha Lyonne, among others, were incredible too), I feel oddly confident about this being our quintet. Perhaps A Complete Unknown overperforms even more than I suspect and Barbaro (or even Elle Fanning) makes it but it’ll be surprising if Rossellini and Jones are no-shows. Again, skeptical Qualley makes it, though she wholeheartedly deserves a nom.

Best Supporting Actor

1. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

2. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown

3. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist

4. Yura Borisov, Anora

5. Stanley Tucci, Conclave
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6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice

7. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing

8. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II

9. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked

10. Adam Pearson, A Different Man

Could be completely off here but I’ve had a sense all season, regardless of his precursors performance, that Tucci emerges on Oscar noms morning. Strong has surfaced at all of the major precursors and it’s a far showier turn than Tucci’s, so I don’t predict his snub with great confidence. Maclin is right up there too and Washington can’t be counted out - you can safely, at least, ignore his BAFTA snub, since they’ve always inexplicably disliked him.

Best Original Screenplay

1. Sean Baker, Anora

2. Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvold, The Brutalist

3. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain

4. Mike Leigh, Hard Truths

5. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance
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6. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light

7. Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum and Alex David, September 5

8. Justin Kuritzkes, Challengers

9. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig

10. Azazel Jacobs, His Three Daughters

Leigh isn’t being overwhelmingly predicted but he’s a fairly reliable presence in this category, having scored noms on five occasions. I’d be surprised if he doesn’t show up here, regardless of whether Jean-Baptiste is a Best Actress nominee. I do have Fargeat making the cut in this one, albeit narrowly over Kapadia and the September 5 team. If either of those films has the momentum to earn a Best Picture nomination, there’s a high chance they surface here too.

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Peter Straughan, Conclave

2. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez

3. Jay Cocks and James Mangold, A Complete Unknown

4. Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin and John “Divine G” Whitfield, Sing Sing

5. RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes, Nickel Boys
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6. Winnie Holzman and Dana Fox, Wicked

7. Murilo Hauser and Heitor Lorega, I’m Still Here

8. Denis Villeneuve and Jon Spaihts, Dune: Part Two

9. Pedro Almodóvar, The Room Next Door

10. Robert Eggers, Nosferatu

Wicked needs this nom to be a threat for the Best Picture win and I’m not quite convinced that’s going to happen, even with Nickel Boys in increasingly questionable shape for recognition. With Sony Pictures Classics working its usual magic, it may even be behind I’m Still Here.

Admittedly due to lack of time on my end, I won’t do write-ups on the rest of the categories - other than to say, anyone not predicting Diane Warren for a 16th career nomination in Best Original Song (this time for The Six Triple Eight’s “The Journey”) is in deep denial.

Best Animated Feature

1. The Wild Robot

2. Flow

3. Inside Out 2

4. Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

5. Memoir of a Snail
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6. Moana 2

7. Piece by Piece

8. Despicable Me 4

9. Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim

10. Chicken for Linda

Best Documentary Feature

1. No Other Land

2. Daughters

3. Dahomey

4. Will and Harper

5. Porcelain War
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6. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat

7. Black Box Diaries

8. Sugarcane

9. Frida

10. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin

Best International Feature

1. Emilia Pérez (France)

2. I’m Still Here (Brazil)

3. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Germany)

4. Vermiglio (Italy)

5. The Girl with the Needle (Denmark)
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6. Flow (Latvia)

7. Kneecap (Ireland)

8. From Ground Zero (Palestine)

9. How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies (Thailand)

10. Armand (Norway)

Best Animated Short

1. A Bear Named Wojtek

2. A Crab in the Pool

3. Au Revoir Mon Monde

4. Wander to Wonder

5. Beautiful Men
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6. Yuck!

7. In the Shadow of the Cypress

8. The Wild-Tempered Clavier

9. Maybe Elephants

10. Magic Candles

Best Documentary Short

1. Once Upon a Time in Ukraine

2. Makayla’s Voice: A Letter to the World

3. I Am Ready, Warden

4. Death by Numbers

5. The Only Girl in the Orchestra
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6. The Quilters

7. Incident

8. Chasing Roo

9. Instruments of a Beating Heart

10. A Swim Lesson

Best Live Action Short

1. The Masterpiece

2. An Orange from Jaffa

3. Anuja

4. The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent

5. The Ice Cream Man
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6. I’m Not a Robot

7. Dovecoat

8. Clodagh

9. The Compatriot

10. Edge of Space

Best Cinematography

1. Lol Crawley, The Brutalist

2. Stéphane Fontaine, Conclave

3. Greig Fraser, Dune: Part Two

4. Jarin Blaschke, Nosferatu

5. Paul Guilhaume, Emilia Pérez
   —

6. Markus Förderer, September 5

7. Edward Lachman, Maria

8. Alice Brooks, Wicked

9. Jomo Fray, Nickel Boys

10. Benjamin Kracun, The Substance

Best Costume Design

1. Paul Tazewell, Wicked

2. Jacqueline West, Dune: Part Two

3. Janty Yates, Gladiator II

4. Massimo Cantini Parrini, Maria

5. Jacqueline Durran, Blitz
   —

6. Linda Muir, Nosferatu

7. Virginie Montel, Emilia Pérez

8. Colleen Atwood, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

9. Arianne Phillips, A Complete Unknown

10. Kate Forbes, The Brutalist

Best Film Editing

1. Joe Walker, Dune: Part Two

2. Juliette Welfling, Emilia Pérez

3. Myron Kerstein, Wicked

4. Dávid Jancsóm, The Brutalist

5. Nick Emerson, Conclave
   —

6. Marco Costa, Challengers

7. Hansjörg Weißbrich, September 5

8. Coralie Fargeat, Jérôme Eltabet and Valentin Feron, The Substance

9. Sean Baker, Anora

10. Andrew Buckland, A Complete Unknown

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Frances Hannon, Sarah Nuth and Laura Blount, Wicked

2. Pierre-Olivier Persin, The Substance

3. Traci Loader, Suzanne Stokes-Munton and David White, Nosferatu

4. Mike Marino, Sarah Graalman and Aaron Saucier, A Different Man

5. Christine Blundell, Lesa Warrener and Neal Scanlan, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
   —

6. Donald Mowat, Love Larson and Eva Von Bahr, Dune: Part Two

7. Julia Floch Carbonel and Simon Livet, Emilia Pérez

8. Heike Merker, Adruitha Lee, Pamela Goldammer and Arjen Tuiten, Maria

9. Michelle Côté and Colin Penman, The Apprentice

10. Cici Andersen, Erica Villanueva and Jerry Constantine, Waltzing with Brando

Best Original Score

1. Volker Bertelmann, Conclave

2. Daniel Blumberg, The Brutalist

3. Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, Challengers

4. Hans Zimmer, Blitz

5. Clément Ducol, Camille, Emilia Pérez
   —

6. Kris Bowers, The Wild Robot

7. Robin Carolan, Nosferatu

8. John Powell and Stephen Schwartz, Wicked

9. Alberto Iglesias, The Room Next Door

10. Amelia Warner, Young Woman and the Sea

Best Original Song

1. “El Mal,” Emilia Pérez

2. “The Journey,” The Six Triple Eight

3. "Mi Camino,” Emilia Pérez

4. “Kiss the Sky,” The Wild Robot

5. "Harper and Will Go West,” Will & Harper
   —

6. "Compress/Regress,” Challengers

7. “Never Too Late,” Elton John: Never Too Late

8. “Like a Bird,” Sing Sing

9. 'Piece by Piece,” Piece by Piece

10. "Tell Me It’s You,” Mufasa: The Lion King

Best Production Design

1. Nathan Crowley and Lee Sandales, Wicked

2. Zsuzsanna Sipos, Shane Vieau and Patrice Vermette, Dune: Part Two

3. Judy Becker, The Brutalist

4. Craig Lathrop, Nosferatu

5. Suzie Davies and Roberta Federico, Conclave
   —

6. Emmanuelle Duplay and Sandra Castello, Emilia Pérez

7. Arthur Max and Elli Griff, Gladiator II

8. Stanislas Reydellet and Cécilia Blom, The Substance

9. Adam Stockhausen and Anna Pinnock, Blitz

10. Tom Brown, Guy Hendrix Dyas and Sandro Piccarozzi, Maria

Best Sound

1. Gareth John, Richard King, Ron Bartlett and Doug Hemphill, Dune: Part Two

2. Nancy Nugent Title, John Marquis, Andy Nelson and Simon Hayes, Wicked

3. Cyril Holtz, Niels Barletta and Erwan Kerzanet, Emilia Pérez

4. Matthew Collinge, Danny Sheehan, Paul Massey and Stéphane Bucher, Gladiator II

5. Ted Caplan, Tod Maitland, David Giammarco, Paul Massey and Donald Sylvester, A Complete Unknown
   —

6. Craig Henighan, Ryan Cole, Lora Hirschberg, and Colin Nicolson, Deadpool & Wolverine

7. Randy Thom, Gary A. Rizzo, Leff Lefferts and Brian Chumney, The Wild Robot

8. Paul Cotterell, James Harrison and Kevin Penney, Blitz

9. Tamás Csaba, Will Files, Lee Gilmore and Mark Pearson, Alien: Romulus

10. Steve Morrow, Erik Aadahl, Ethan Van der Ryn, Jason Ruder, Tom Ozanich and Dean A. Zupancic, Joker: Folie à Deux

Best Visual Effects

1. Paul Lambert, Stephen James, Rhys Salcombe and Gerd Nefzer, Dune: Part Two

2. Pablo Helman, Jonathan Fawkner, Paul Corbould and David Shirk, Wicked

3. Mark Bakowski, Pietro Ponti, Nikki Penny and Neil Corbould, Gladiator II

4. Erik Winquist, Stephen Unterfranz, Paul Story and Rodney Burke, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

5. Swen Gillberg, Matthew Twyford, Vincent Papaix and Dominic Tuohy, Deadpool & Wolverine
   —

6. Luke Miller, David Clayton, Keith Herft and Peter Stubbs, Better Man

7. Olivier Beaulieu, Bill Georgiou, Ben Snow and Florian Witzel, Twisters

8. Audrey Ferrara and Adam Valdez, Mufasa: The Lion King

9. Eric Barba, Nelson Sepulveda-Fauser, Daniel Macarin and Shane Patrick Mahan, Alien: Romulus

10. David Simpson, J.D. Schwalm, Chris Zeh and Freddy Salazar, Civil War