Best Motion Picture Ensemble
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Banshees of Inisherin
The Fabelmans
Women Talking
Babylon
With waning awards season momentum and no individual acting noms, it’s all but impossible to make a case for Babylon or Women Talking having a prayer here. Likewise, while Paul Dano made the cut (and, side note, should’ve done the same with AMPAS), the snubs of Michelle Williams and Judd Hirsch sadly don’t bode well for The Fabelmans’ chances of taking the top prize.
Both sporting quartets of acting bids, The Banshees of Inisherin and Everything Everywhere All at Once are the overwhelming forces to be reckoned with. To date, only one film - Sideways - has taken Best Ensemble honors with a four-person cast. This, coupled with the wins I suspect are on the horizon for Michelle Yeoh and Ke Huy Quan, leans me in the direction of Everything Everywhere.
But Banshees is hardly to be underestimated and a win early in the evening for Kerry Condon and/or Barry Keoghan would bode very well for its odds of taking top honors.
Best Female Actor in a Leading Role
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Cate Blanchett, TÁR
Viola Davis, The Woman King
Ana de Armas, Blonde
Danielle Deadwyler, Till
Sublime as she is, Deadwyler won’t be taking this, nor will de Armas. Davis has had a remarkable run with SAG, triumphing on five out of six individual noms (three for film, two for TV), but even with that track record, it’ll be challenging for her to overcome the Oscar snub - and it doesn’t help that The Woman King is absent from Best Ensemble.
Instead, no surprise, this will be a barn burner between the two front-runners. My gut says Blanchett ultimately takes home her third career Oscar but not before ever-so-narrowly falling short to Yeoh here.
Best Male Actor in a Leading Role
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Austin Butler, Elvis
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Adam Sandler, Hustle
Bill Nighy, Living
With Best Actress, for all intents and purposes, having proven a two-person race, Best Actor has more felt like an exciting three-way affair - that is until BAFTA, where Farrell, seemingly well-positioned for victory, fell short to Butler, even with Bashees co-stars Condon and Keoghan triumphing in the Supporting fields. It was a true gut punch of a loss, leaving Farrell with increasingly long odds of prevailing at SAG and/or the Oscars and establishing this race as more of a one-on-one showdown.
Had Elvis somehow made the Best Ensemble cut, I’d be inclined to predict Butler. Alas, I do give the slight edge to Fraser over the newcomer. He’s long been in the business, worked with countless SAG members and is seen as sorely due for recognition. It’s a close call, however, and you can feel momentum building, to an extent, for Butler and his film. My hunch - Fraser at SAG, Butler at the Oscars.
Best Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Hong Chau, The Whale
Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Despite Bassett’s victories with the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards, it’s been hard to shake the feeling that an Oscar win for this turn, marvelous as it is, may prove elusive. The BAFTA win for Condon, while not a surprise, leaves me all the more convinced this may not be Bassett’s year.
That said…I do think she’s still taking SAG! They strike me as a more populist and favorable voting body to Bassett than the likes of the HFPA and Critics Choice crowd, both of which embraced her. Condon could keep the momentum going and triumph - and if she does, she’s winning the Oscar - but odds remain strong that Bassett takes this.
If there’s a dark horse, it’s perhaps Curtis, who’s worked with everyone in the industry and is running one hell of a spirited campaign.
Best Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
Paul Dano, The Fabelmans
Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse
Until BAFTA, this was a race largely devoid of suspense, with Quan poised to steamroll to Oscar glory. While so-called “vote-splitting” is, more often than not, not a real factor in awards races, it nonetheless seemed challenging for one of the Banshees gents to triumph over the other…and yet that’s precisely what happened as the Brits provided Keoghan an upset victory.
With SAG, Quan still strikes me as the favorite - frankly, if he falls short, Everything Everywhere probably isn’t winning anything here and that’s awfully tough to fathom - but a clear alternative to the front-runner has finally emerged and the Oscar race is destined to be a close one.
Best Motion Picture Stunt Ensemble
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Top Gun: Maverick
The Woman King
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Four of the past five years have seen a superhero film triumph in this category. Avatar: The Way of Water and Top Gun: Maverick may have the Best Picture noms but that didn’t mean much for the likes of past nominees/losers Dune, Dunkirk and Ford v Ferrari, among others. Bank on Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, especially if Bassett’s winning.
