2024 Oscar Nomination Predictions

From most to least likely to score a nomination:

Best Picture

1. Emilia Pérez

2. The Brutalist

3. Conclave

4. A Complete Unknown

5. Wicked

6. Anora

7. Dune: Part Two

8. A Real Pain

9. Sing Sing

10. The Substance
    —

11. September 5

12. I’m Still Here

13. Nickel Boys

14. All We Imagine as Light

15. Challengers

I’m feeling reasonably confident about the top eight here. Sing Sing’s constant underperformance this awards season continued with a PGA snub but I still slightly prefer its odds over The Substance, a film that’s had a far more robust precursors run than expected, yet still needs to contend with the notorious AMPAS aversion to horror. In a lineup of 10, however, I think The Substance can land a slot, especially with the likes of All We Imagine as Light and Nickel Boys not the most formidable of forces. At this point, if there’s a dark horse, it’s probably September 5, which has gone nowhere commercially but does have the PGA nom, suggesting at least some industry support.

Best Director

1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist

2. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez

3. Edward Berger, Conclave

4. Sean Baker, Anora

5. James Mangold, A Complete Unknown
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6. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light

7. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance

8. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two

9. Mike Leigh, Hard Truths

10. John M. Chu, Wicked

There is where I start to differ with other Oscar prognosticators in terms of The Substance strength. It’s my favorite film of the year and I sure hope Fargeat scores multiple nominations, including one here. But A Complete Unknown’s awards season buzz seemingly only strengthened during the AMPAS voting period, including a surprise DGA nom for Mangold (who has yet to surface as a nominee in this category). Perhaps, hopefully, my nervousness is misguided and Fargeat will, as most expect, make the cut. Or, if it’s not Fargeat, it’s an exciting curveball like Kapadia or Leigh. Alas, my gut says A Complete Unknown may be in for an overperformance.

Best Actress

1. Demi Moore, The Substance

2. Mikey Madison, Anora

3. Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez

4. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked

5. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here
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6. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths

7. Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl

8. Angelina Jolie, Maria

9. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl

10. Kate Winslet, Lee

I know, I know - the Golden Globes have zero crossover with AMPAS in terms of voters. Statistically, however, only two winners of the Drama Actress Golden Globe have not scored Oscar nominations. One was Revolutionary Road’s Kate Winslet, who instead earned a nomination for The Reader that year. The other was Madame Sousatzka’s Shirley MacLaine, who was part of a three-way tie at the 1988 Globes, with two of her co-winners ultimately making the Oscar cut. That’s it. So, despite incredibly formidable bids by Jean-Baptiste and Anderson especially, I can’t fathom Torres missing, especially with Sony Pictures Classics running a gangbusters campaign for her. Maybe it’s even Erivo who drops in the event someone else makes it?

Best Actor

1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist

2. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown

3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave

4. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing

5. Daniel Craig, Queer
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6. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man

7. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice

8. Hugh Grant, Heretic

9. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain

10. Glen Powell, Hit Man

That SAG nom was critical for Craig. Yes, he oddly missed BAFTA but that was an ideal scenario for Stan, who made their longlist for The Apprentice but not A Different Man, ensuring there was no threat of canceling himself out. There is no longlist here, so voters will need to make up their minds over which Stan turn to embrace - and I’m hardly convinced there is a consensus.

Best Supporting Actress

1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez

2. Ariana Grande, Wicked

3. Jamie Lee Curtis, The Last Showgirl

4. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave

5. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist
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6. Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown

7. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez

8. Margaret Qualley, The Substance

9. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson

10. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys

The rise of Curtis this season has been remarkable, albeit not entirely surprising, given how much she’s adored by her peers. It’ll just be wild when, as is likely the case, she scores a nom while Anderson, who is truly extraordinary in their picture, misses the cut. Despite the crowded nature of this category (Joan Chen, Carol Kane and Natasha Lyonne, among others, were incredible too), I feel oddly confident about this being our quintet. Perhaps A Complete Unknown overperforms even more than I suspect and Barbaro (or even Elle Fanning) makes it but it’ll be surprising if Rossellini and Jones are no-shows. Again, skeptical Qualley makes it, though she wholeheartedly deserves a nom.

Best Supporting Actor

1. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

2. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown

3. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist

4. Yura Borisov, Anora

5. Stanley Tucci, Conclave
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6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice

7. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing

8. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II

9. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked

10. Adam Pearson, A Different Man

Could be completely off here but I’ve had a sense all season, regardless of his precursors performance, that Tucci emerges on Oscar noms morning. Strong has surfaced at all of the major precursors and it’s a far showier turn than Tucci’s, so I don’t predict his snub with great confidence. Maclin is right up there too and Washington can’t be counted out - you can safely, at least, ignore his BAFTA snub, since they’ve always inexplicably disliked him.

Best Original Screenplay

1. Sean Baker, Anora

2. Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvold, The Brutalist

3. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain

4. Mike Leigh, Hard Truths

5. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance
   —

6. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light

7. Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum and Alex David, September 5

8. Justin Kuritzkes, Challengers

9. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig

10. Azazel Jacobs, His Three Daughters

Leigh isn’t being overwhelmingly predicted but he’s a fairly reliable presence in this category, having scored noms on five occasions. I’d be surprised if he doesn’t show up here, regardless of whether Jean-Baptiste is a Best Actress nominee. I do have Fargeat making the cut in this one, albeit narrowly over Kapadia and the September 5 team. If either of those films has the momentum to earn a Best Picture nomination, there’s a high chance they surface here too.

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Peter Straughan, Conclave

2. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez

3. Jay Cocks and James Mangold, A Complete Unknown

4. Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin and John “Divine G” Whitfield, Sing Sing

5. RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes, Nickel Boys
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6. Winnie Holzman and Dana Fox, Wicked

7. Murilo Hauser and Heitor Lorega, I’m Still Here

8. Denis Villeneuve and Jon Spaihts, Dune: Part Two

9. Pedro Almodóvar, The Room Next Door

10. Robert Eggers, Nosferatu

Wicked needs this nom to be a threat for the Best Picture win and I’m not quite convinced that’s going to happen, even with Nickel Boys in increasingly questionable shape for recognition. With Sony Pictures Classics working its usual magic, it may even be behind I’m Still Here.

Admittedly due to lack of time on my end, I won’t do write-ups on the rest of the categories - other than to say, anyone not predicting Diane Warren for a 16th career nomination in Best Original Song (this time for The Six Triple Eight’s “The Journey”) is in deep denial.

Best Animated Feature

1. The Wild Robot

2. Flow

3. Inside Out 2

4. Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

5. Memoir of a Snail
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6. Moana 2

7. Piece by Piece

8. Despicable Me 4

9. Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim

10. Chicken for Linda

Best Documentary Feature

1. No Other Land

2. Daughters

3. Dahomey

4. Will and Harper

5. Porcelain War
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6. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat

7. Black Box Diaries

8. Sugarcane

9. Frida

10. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin

Best International Feature

1. Emilia Pérez (France)

2. I’m Still Here (Brazil)

3. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Germany)

4. Vermiglio (Italy)

5. The Girl with the Needle (Denmark)
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6. Flow (Latvia)

7. Kneecap (Ireland)

8. From Ground Zero (Palestine)

9. How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies (Thailand)

10. Armand (Norway)

Best Animated Short

1. A Bear Named Wojtek

2. A Crab in the Pool

3. Au Revoir Mon Monde

4. Wander to Wonder

5. Beautiful Men
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6. Yuck!

7. In the Shadow of the Cypress

8. The Wild-Tempered Clavier

9. Maybe Elephants

10. Magic Candles

Best Documentary Short

1. Once Upon a Time in Ukraine

2. Makayla’s Voice: A Letter to the World

3. I Am Ready, Warden

4. Death by Numbers

5. The Only Girl in the Orchestra
   —

6. The Quilters

7. Incident

8. Chasing Roo

9. Instruments of a Beating Heart

10. A Swim Lesson

Best Live Action Short

1. The Masterpiece

2. An Orange from Jaffa

3. Anuja

4. The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent

5. The Ice Cream Man
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6. I’m Not a Robot

7. Dovecoat

8. Clodagh

9. The Compatriot

10. Edge of Space

Best Cinematography

1. Lol Crawley, The Brutalist

2. Stéphane Fontaine, Conclave

3. Greig Fraser, Dune: Part Two

4. Jarin Blaschke, Nosferatu

5. Paul Guilhaume, Emilia Pérez
   —

6. Markus Förderer, September 5

7. Edward Lachman, Maria

8. Alice Brooks, Wicked

9. Jomo Fray, Nickel Boys

10. Benjamin Kracun, The Substance

Best Costume Design

1. Paul Tazewell, Wicked

2. Jacqueline West, Dune: Part Two

3. Janty Yates, Gladiator II

4. Massimo Cantini Parrini, Maria

5. Jacqueline Durran, Blitz
   —

6. Linda Muir, Nosferatu

7. Virginie Montel, Emilia Pérez

8. Colleen Atwood, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

9. Arianne Phillips, A Complete Unknown

10. Kate Forbes, The Brutalist

Best Film Editing

1. Joe Walker, Dune: Part Two

2. Juliette Welfling, Emilia Pérez

3. Myron Kerstein, Wicked

4. Dávid Jancsóm, The Brutalist

5. Nick Emerson, Conclave
   —

6. Marco Costa, Challengers

7. Hansjörg Weißbrich, September 5

8. Coralie Fargeat, Jérôme Eltabet and Valentin Feron, The Substance

9. Sean Baker, Anora

10. Andrew Buckland, A Complete Unknown

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Frances Hannon, Sarah Nuth and Laura Blount, Wicked

2. Pierre-Olivier Persin, The Substance

3. Traci Loader, Suzanne Stokes-Munton and David White, Nosferatu

4. Mike Marino, Sarah Graalman and Aaron Saucier, A Different Man

5. Christine Blundell, Lesa Warrener and Neal Scanlan, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
   —

6. Donald Mowat, Love Larson and Eva Von Bahr, Dune: Part Two

7. Julia Floch Carbonel and Simon Livet, Emilia Pérez

8. Heike Merker, Adruitha Lee, Pamela Goldammer and Arjen Tuiten, Maria

9. Michelle Côté and Colin Penman, The Apprentice

10. Cici Andersen, Erica Villanueva and Jerry Constantine, Waltzing with Brando

Best Original Score

1. Volker Bertelmann, Conclave

2. Daniel Blumberg, The Brutalist

3. Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, Challengers

4. Hans Zimmer, Blitz

5. Clément Ducol, Camille, Emilia Pérez
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6. Kris Bowers, The Wild Robot

7. Robin Carolan, Nosferatu

8. John Powell and Stephen Schwartz, Wicked

9. Alberto Iglesias, The Room Next Door

10. Amelia Warner, Young Woman and the Sea

Best Original Song

1. “El Mal,” Emilia Pérez

2. “The Journey,” The Six Triple Eight

3. "Mi Camino,” Emilia Pérez

4. “Kiss the Sky,” The Wild Robot

5. "Harper and Will Go West,” Will & Harper
   —

6. "Compress/Regress,” Challengers

7. “Never Too Late,” Elton John: Never Too Late

8. “Like a Bird,” Sing Sing

9. 'Piece by Piece,” Piece by Piece

10. "Tell Me It’s You,” Mufasa: The Lion King

Best Production Design

1. Nathan Crowley and Lee Sandales, Wicked

2. Zsuzsanna Sipos, Shane Vieau and Patrice Vermette, Dune: Part Two

3. Judy Becker, The Brutalist

4. Craig Lathrop, Nosferatu

5. Suzie Davies and Roberta Federico, Conclave
   —

6. Emmanuelle Duplay and Sandra Castello, Emilia Pérez

7. Arthur Max and Elli Griff, Gladiator II

8. Stanislas Reydellet and Cécilia Blom, The Substance

9. Adam Stockhausen and Anna Pinnock, Blitz

10. Tom Brown, Guy Hendrix Dyas and Sandro Piccarozzi, Maria

Best Sound

1. Gareth John, Richard King, Ron Bartlett and Doug Hemphill, Dune: Part Two

2. Nancy Nugent Title, John Marquis, Andy Nelson and Simon Hayes, Wicked

3. Cyril Holtz, Niels Barletta and Erwan Kerzanet, Emilia Pérez

4. Matthew Collinge, Danny Sheehan, Paul Massey and Stéphane Bucher, Gladiator II

5. Ted Caplan, Tod Maitland, David Giammarco, Paul Massey and Donald Sylvester, A Complete Unknown
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6. Craig Henighan, Ryan Cole, Lora Hirschberg, and Colin Nicolson, Deadpool & Wolverine

7. Randy Thom, Gary A. Rizzo, Leff Lefferts and Brian Chumney, The Wild Robot

8. Paul Cotterell, James Harrison and Kevin Penney, Blitz

9. Tamás Csaba, Will Files, Lee Gilmore and Mark Pearson, Alien: Romulus

10. Steve Morrow, Erik Aadahl, Ethan Van der Ryn, Jason Ruder, Tom Ozanich and Dean A. Zupancic, Joker: Folie à Deux

Best Visual Effects

1. Paul Lambert, Stephen James, Rhys Salcombe and Gerd Nefzer, Dune: Part Two

2. Pablo Helman, Jonathan Fawkner, Paul Corbould and David Shirk, Wicked

3. Mark Bakowski, Pietro Ponti, Nikki Penny and Neil Corbould, Gladiator II

4. Erik Winquist, Stephen Unterfranz, Paul Story and Rodney Burke, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

5. Swen Gillberg, Matthew Twyford, Vincent Papaix and Dominic Tuohy, Deadpool & Wolverine
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6. Luke Miller, David Clayton, Keith Herft and Peter Stubbs, Better Man

7. Olivier Beaulieu, Bill Georgiou, Ben Snow and Florian Witzel, Twisters

8. Audrey Ferrara and Adam Valdez, Mufasa: The Lion King

9. Eric Barba, Nelson Sepulveda-Fauser, Daniel Macarin and Shane Patrick Mahan, Alien: Romulus

10. David Simpson, J.D. Schwalm, Chris Zeh and Freddy Salazar, Civil War