2020 Oscar Nomination Predictions (September)
Howdy, friends!
By this point in years past, I’d have already released my first set of Summer Oscar Predictions and be in the midst of revising them for an updated September set. Having seen a grand total of four - no, not 14…4 - 2020 releases at this point, let’s just say I haven’t exactly been engaged or inspired to explore what is destined to be the most haphazard of awards seasons.
With more trailers dropping and theaters (inexplicably) starting to reopen their doors, however, I figured I’d go ahead and give this a shot - at this point, just in the top eight categories.
If we’re indeed going to have an Oscars on April 25, I’m hopeful more contenders will be added to the calendar, as the film landscape ahead strikes me as atypically, if understandably, barren. I’m not sold, for instance, on West Side Story proving a force to be reckoned with or Da 5 Bloods even being remembered by the time 2021 rolls around, yet I couldn’t help but include them, including in Best Picture. I’m even less convinced Dune, which I’ve seen grace countless pundits’ major predictions, will be a player beyond technical categories but perhaps it too could break through.
At this point, of course, with many of these films still unseen, these hunches are total shots in the dark. Mank and The Trial of the Chicago 7 sure look formidable on paper but the Academy has broken the hearts of David Fincher and Aaron Sorkin before. And I’m super excited and curious to see what comes of Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, which might be my favorite of all August Wilson works, yet I wouldn’t necessarily call that a popular opinion (its forgotten Broadway revival, with Whoopi Goldberg and Charles S. Dutton, was a critical and commercial disaster).
And then, of course, there’s Glenn. And Michelle Pfeiffer! Imagine if both Dangerous Liaisons ladies somehow manage to win. The dream of that alone gets me pretty pumped about Oscar season, even if such sorely overdue victories are accepted over Zoom.
One year ago, I was predicted the likes of Waves in Best Picture and Jennifer Hudson in Best Supporting Actress (for Cats, obvs), so of course take these bad boys with a grain of salt… :)
Best Picture
Mank
The Trial of the Chicago 7
News of the World
Hillbilly Elegy
Soul
Nomadland
The Father
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
West Side Story
Da 5 Bloods
—Ammonite
Respect
Minari
Judas and the Black Messiah
One Night in Miami
Best Director
David Fincher, Mank
Paul Greengrass, News of the World
Ron Howard, Hillbilly Elegy
Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
—Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods
Florian Zeller, The Father
Francis Lee, Ammonite
Regina King, One Night in Miami
Best Actress
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Kate Winslet, Ammonite
Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy
Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit
—Jennifer Hudson, Respect
Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
Jennifer Lawrence, Red, White and Water
Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Best Actor
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Tom Hanks, News of the World
Gary Oldman, Mank
Eddie Redmayne, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Joaquin Phoenix, C’mon C’mon
—Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Bill Murray, On the Rocks
Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods
Gabriel Basso, Hillbilly Elegy
Steven Yeun, Minari
Best Supporting Actress
Olivia Colman, The Father
Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite
Meryl Streep, The Prom
Helena Zengel, News of the World
—Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans
Audra McDonald, Respect
Amanda Seyfried, Mank
Youn Yuh-jung, Minari
Best Supporting Actor
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
David Strathairn, Nomadland
Tom Pelphrey, Mank
Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7
—Jeremy Strong, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Richard Jenkins, The Humans
Martin Sheen, Judas and the Black Messiah
Glynn Turman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Best Original Screenplay
Jack Fincher, Mank
Pete Docter, Tina Fey, Mike Jones and Kemp Powers, Soul
Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Spike Lee, Danny Bilson, Pail De Meo and Kevin Willmott, Da 5 Bloods
Francis Lee, Ammonite
—Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
Mike Mills, C’mon C’mon
Sofia Coppola, On the Rocks
Shaka King and Will Berson, Judas and the Black Messiah
Eliza Hittman, Never Rarely Sometimes Always
Best Adapted Screenplay
Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller, The Father
Ruben Santiago-Hudson, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Vanessa Taylor, Hillbilly Elegy
Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
Luke Davies and Paul Greengrass, News of the World
—Patrick deWitt, French Exit
Suzan Lori-Parks, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Kemp Powers, One Night in Miami
Stephen Karam, The Humans
Iain Morris and Taika Waititi, Next Goal Wins