FINAL 2021 Oscar Nomination Predictions
We’re so close.
It’s been the oddest of awards seasons, as we venture into Oscar nominations morning without the usual pomp and circumstance from the Golden Globes (held but not televised) and Critics’ Choice Awards (delayed and will later be televised). While the critics’ awards, guild awards and BAFTA have given us a fair idea of what to likely expect from AMPAS, it nonetheless feels like this awards season never had a proper kickoff. With Tuesday’s announcement, this will change.
A healthy sense of suspense remains ahead of the nominations. We know, of course, that the likes of Belfast, Dune, The Power of the Dog and West Side Story are poised for strong showings…but just how robust will their hauls prove? And are the likes of Kenneth Branagh and Steven Spielberg really shoo-ins in Best Director or could more surprises be on the horizon there than anticipated?
Contenders like CODA, King Richard and Licorice Pizza all seem destined for at least modest batches of nominations, while the likes of Being the Ricardos, House of Gucci, tick, tick…BOOM! and The Tragedy of Macbeth could finish strong or just as easily underwhelm. And you can’t count out a film like No Time to Die, which doesn’t ring of traditional Oscar fare but has seen an exceedingly healthy awards season run in the technical fields.
The acting categories remain awfully unsettled, with Lead Actor perhaps the most set in stone and sporting just one competitive slot. Despite some BAFTA battiness, Lady Gaga, Nicole Kidman and Olivia Colman seem reasonably safe over in Lead Actress, as does Jessica Chastain, albeit to a little lesser extent. That final slot feels like a jump ball among half a dozen (or more!) contenders.
The Supporting fields are tougher to forecast, with really just two contenders in each - Ariana DeBose & Caitriona Balfe and Kodi Smit-McPhee & Troy Kotsur - looking safe. BAFTA and SAG snubs have cast mild doubt on Kirsten Dunst and Aunjanue Ellis, though odds are both make the cut. And while I remain anxious that Passing may be in for a shutout on nominations morning, it’s tough to argue Ruth Negga, who’s had a nice precursors run, isn’t poised for a slot. There are, however, several strong contenders right on her heels.
Over in Supporting Actor, Jared Leto and Bradley Cooper have high name rec and grace films destined for recognition across a variety of categories, while the likes of Mike Faist and/or Jesse Plemons could sneak in if AMPAS goes especially gaga for one of their films. The Belfast buzz doesn’t seem potent enough for double nominations in either category.
Down in the technical fields, expect lots of Dune, West Side Story and, as earlier mentioned, No Time to Die, which could rack up half a dozen or more nominations when all is said and done.
All that said, let’s just dive right into it - final Oscar nom predictions of the season, from most to least likely to earn a nomination. In countless cases, a contender has moved up or down from my last forecast - or bolted from its category entirely.
Enjoy! :)
Best Picture
The Power of the Dog (-)
Dune (+3)
Licorice Pizza (+1)
Belfast (-1)
West Side Story (-3)
Don’t Look Up (+3)
CODA (-1)
King Richard (-1)
Drive My Car (+6)
House of Gucci (NEW)
—tick, tick…BOOM! (-3)
Being the Ricardos (+1)
The Tragedy of Macbeth (-3)
The Lost Daughter (-3)
No Time to Die (NEW)
DROPPED
Nightmare Alley (-4)
Spider-Man: No Way Home (-2)
Best Director
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (-)
Denis Villeneuve, Dune (+1)
Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (+1)
Ryûsuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car (+1)
Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (-3)
—Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (-)
Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up (+2)
Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Lost Daughter (-)
Siân Heder, CODA (-3)
Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (-)
Best Actress
Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (+2)
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (+2)
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (-1)
Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (+3)
Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (-)
—Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza (-)
Jennifer Hudson, Respect (+3)
Kristen Stewart, Spencer (-7)
Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (-1)
Emilia Jones, CODA (-1)
Best Actor
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (-)
Will Smith, King Richard (-)
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (-)
Andrew Garfield, tick, tick…BOOM! (-)
Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up (+1)
—Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos (NEW)
Mahershala Ali, Swan Song (NEW)
Nicolas Cage, Pig (-1)
Joaquin Phoenix, C’mon C’mon (-3)
Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (-)
DROPPED
Clifton Collins, Jr., Jockey (-3)
Cooper Hoffman, Licorice Pizza (-2)
Best Supporting Actress
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (+1)
Caitriona Balfe, Belfast (+2)
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (-2)
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (-1)
Ruth Negga, Passing (+2)
—Ann Dowd, Mass (+3)
Rita Moreno, West Side Story (-1)
Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley (NEW)
Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter (NEW)
Marlee Matlin, CODA (-2)
DROPPED
Judi Dench, Belfast (-6)
Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up (-4)
Best Supporting Actor
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog (-)
Troy Kotsur, CODA (-)
Ciaran Hinds, Belfast (-)
Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza (+2)
Jared Leto, House of Gucci (+2)
—Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog (+4)
J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos (-2)
Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar (+1)
Mike Faist, West Side Story (-1)
Jamie Dornan, Belfast (-6)
Best Original Screenplay
Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (-)
Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (-)
Adam McKay and David Sirota, Don’t Look Up (-)
Aaron Sorkin, Being the Ricardos (+4)
Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola, Hugo Guinness and Jason Schwartzman, The French Dispatch (-)
—Zach Baylin, King Richard (-2)
Pedro Almodovar, Parallel Mothers (+2)
Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier, The Worst Person in the World (NEW)
Asghar Farhadi, A Hero (-2)
Mike Mills, C’mon C’mon (-4)
DROPPED
Paolo Sorrentino, The Hand of God (-1)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (-)
Tony Kushner, West Side Story (-)
Sian Heder, CODA (-)
Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Lost Daughter (-)
Ryusuke Hamaguchi and Takamasa Oe, Drive My Car (-)
—Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve and Eric Roth, Dune (+3)
Steven Levenson, tick, tick... BOOM! (-)
Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (-2)
Guillermo del Toro and Kim Morgan, Nightmare Alley (+1)
Rebecca Hall, Passing (-2)
Best Animated Feature
Encanto (-)
Luca (+1)
Raya and the Last Dragon (+1)
The Mitchells vs. the Machines (+4)
Flee (-3)
—Belle (-1)
Sing 2 (+2)
The Summit of the Gods (-1)
Ron’s Gone Wrong (+1)
Vivo (-4)
Best Animated Short Film
Us Again (+7)
Robin Robin (+7)
Affairs of the Art (-2)
Step into the River (-)
Bestia (-3)
—Mum Is Pouring Rain (-3)
Namoo (-1)
The Windshield Wiper (-1)
Souvenir Souvenir (+1)
The Musician (-5)
Best Documentary Feature
Flee (-)
The Rescue (+1)
The First Wave (+1)
Procession (+4)
Billie Eilish: The World’s a Little Blurry (+4)
—Summer Of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised) (-4)
The Velvet Underground (NEW)
Attica (+2)
Simple as Water (-2)
Julia (NEW)
DROPPED
Faya Dayi (-6)
Writing with Fire (-5)
Best Documentary Short Subject
The Queen of Basketball (+8)
Audible (NEW)
Terror Contagion (NEW)
Sophie & the Baron (+1)
Águilas (-4)
—Three Songs for Benazir (-4)
A Broken House (-4)
Lead Me Home (-2)
Day of Rage (-2)
Camp Confidential: America’s Secret Nazis (-2)
DROPPED
Lynching Postcards: “Token of a Great Day” (-7)
The Facility (-1)
Best International Feature
Drive My Car (Japan) (-)
Flee (Denmark) (-)
The Worst Person in the World (Norway) (+2)
A Hero (Iran) (-1)
The Hand of God (Italy) (-1)
—Compartment No. 6 (Finland) (-)
Prayers for the Stolen (Mexico) (+2)
Playground (Belgium) (+2)
I’m Your Man (Germany) (-2)
Hive (Kosovo) (NEW)
DROPPED
Lamb (Iceland) (-3)
Best Live Action Short Film
Under the Heavens (+9)
Les Grandes Claques (-)
When the Sun Sets (NEW)
The Long Goodbye (+2)
Censor of Dreams (+2)
—The Criminals (-5)
Frimas (-4)
Stenofonen (-4)
You’re Dead Hélène (-4)
The Dress (-2)
DROPPED
Distances (-2)
Best Cinematography
Greig Fraser, Dune (-)
Ari Wegner, The Power of the Dog (-)
Bruno Delbonnel, The Tragedy of Macbeth (+2)
Haris Zambarloukos, Belfast (-)
Dan Laustsen, Nightmare Alley (+1)
—Janusz Kaminski, West Side Story (-3)
Paul Thomas Anderson and Michael Bauman, Licorice Pizza (-)
Linus Sandgren, No Time to Die (NEW)
Claire Mithon, Spencer (-1)
Robert Yeoman, The French Dispatch (-1)
DROPPED
Eduard Grau, Passing (-1)
Best Costume Design
Jenny Beavan, Cruella (+1)
Luis Sequeira, Nightmare Alley (+1)
Janty Yates, House of Gucci (+1)
Paul Tazewell, West Side Story (-1)
Jacqueline West, Dune (+1)
—Massimo Cantini Parrini, Cyrano (+2)
Milena Canonero, The French Dispatch (-)
Jacqueline Durran, Spencer (-5)
Suttirat Anne Larlarb, No Time to Die (NEW)
Kirsty Cameron, The Power of the Dog (-)
DROPPED
Susan Lyall, Being the Ricardos (-2)
Best Film Editing
Joe Walker, Dune (-)
Peter Sciberras, The Power of the Dog (-)
Andy Jurgensen, Licorice Pizza (+1)
Tom Cross and Elliot Graham, No Time to Die (+2)
Sarah Broshar and Michael Kahn, West Side Story (-2)
—Úna Ní Dhonghaíle, Belfast (-1)
Pamela Martin, King Richard (-)
Hank Corwin, Don’t Look Up (-)
Myron Kerstein and Andrew Weisblum, tick, tick... BOOM! (-)
Alan Baumgarten, Being the Ricardos (NEW)
DROPPED
Geraud Brisson, CODA (-1)
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
Jana Carboni, Giuliano Mariano and Göran Lundström, House of Gucci (-)
Nadia Stacey and Carolyn Cousins, Cruella (+3)
Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram and Justin Raleigh, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (-)
Heba Thorisdottir and Janine Thompson, The Suicide Squad (+2)
Vera Steimberg, Merc Arceneaux, Stacey Morris and Carla Farmer, Coming 2 America (+2)
—Donald Mowat, Love Larson and Eva von Bahr, Dune (-2)
Cliona Furey and Jo-Ann MacNeil, Nightmare Alley (-5)
Sian Miller and Alessandro Bertolazzi, Cyrano (+1)
Judy Chin and Kay Georgiou, West Side Story (-1)
Daniel Phillips, No Time to Die (-)
Best Original Score
Hans Zimmer, Dune (+1)
Jonny Greenwood, The Power of the Dog (-1)
Alexandre Desplat, The French Dispatch (+1)
Nicholas Britell, Don’t Look Up (+5)
Carter Burwell, The Tragedy of Macbeth (+1)
—Germaine Franco, Encanto (-1)
Hans Zimmer, No Time to Die (NEW)
Alberto Iglesias, Parallel Mothers (-1)
Daniel Pemberton, Being the Ricardos (-1)
Jonny Greenwood, Spencer (-7)
DROPPED
Kris Bowers, King Richard (-1)
Best Original Song
“No Time to Die,” No Time to Die (-)
“Dos Oruguitas,” Encanto (-)
“Down to Joy,” Belfast (-)
“Here I Am (Singing My Way Home),” Respect (+1)
“Beyond the Shore,” CODA (+1)
—“Be Alive,” King Richard (-2)
“Somehow You Do,” Four Good Days (+1)
“Just Look Up,” Don’t Look Up (+1)
“So May We Start,” Annette (-2)
“Your Song Saved My Life,” Sing 2 (NEW)
DROPPED
“Right Where I Belong,” Brian Wilson: Long Promised Road (-1)
Best Production Design
Tamara Deverell and Shane Vieau, Nightmare Alley (+2)
Patrice Vermette, Richard Roberts and Zsuzsanna Sipos, Dune (-1)
Adam Stockhausen and Rena DeAngelo, West Side Story (-1)
Adam Stockhausen and Rena DeAngelo, The French Dispatch (+1)
Stefan Dechant and Nancy Haigh, The Tragedy of Macbeth (+3)
—Grant Major and Amber Richards, The Power of the Dog (-2)
Arthur Max and Letizia Santucci, House of Gucci (-1)
Mark Tildesley and Veronique Melery, No Time to Die (NEW)
Florencia Martin and Ryan Watson, Licorice Pizza (NEW)
Jon Hutman and Ellen Brill, Being the Ricardos (-1)
DROPPED
Guy Hendrix-Dyas and Yesim Zolan, Spencer (-4)
Jim Clay and Claire Nia Richards, Belfast (-1)
Best Sound
Mac Ruth, Mark Mangini, Theo Green, Doug Hemphill and Ron Bartlett, Dune (-)
Gary Rydstrom, Brian Chumney, Andy Nelson, Tod Maitland and Shawn Murphy, West Side Story (-)
Simon Hayes, Oliver Tarney and Paul Massey, No Time to Die (+2)
Willie Burton, Kevin O’Connell, Tony Lambert, Steven Ticknor and Vanessa Lapato, Spider-Man: No Way Home (-)
Ethan Van Der Ryn, Erik Aadahl, Michael Barosky and Brandon Proctor, A Quiet Place Part II (+3)
—Paul Hsu and Todd A. Maitland, tick, tick...BOOM! (-)
Robert Mackenzie, Richard Flynn, Leah Katz, Tara Webb and Dave Whitehead, The Power of the Dog (-4)
Julian Slater, Dan Morgan, Colin Nicolson, Tim Cavagin, Last Night in Soho (+2)
Barry O’Sullivan, Dana A. Davis, Stephanie Flack, Matthias Lempert and Lars Ginzel, The Matrix Resurrections (-)
Simon Chase, James Mather, Denise Yarde and Niv Adris, Belfast (-3)
Best Visual Effects
Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor and Gerd Nefzer, Dune (-)
Kelly Port, Chris Waegner, Scott Edelstein and Dan Sudick, Spider-Man: No Way Home (-)
Charlie Noble and Chris Corbould, No Time to Die (+3)
Dan Glass, Huw J Evans, Tom Debenham and J.D. Schwalm, The Matrix Resurrections (-1)
Christopher Townsend, Joe Farrell, Sean Walker, Dan Oliver, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (-1)
—Stephane Ceretti, Daniele Bigi, Matt Aitken and Neil Corbould, Eternals (+1)
Swen Gillberg, Bryan Grill, Nikos Kalaitzidis and Dan Sudick, Free Guy (-2)
John Desjardin, Bryan Hirota, Kevin Smith and Mike Meinardus, Godzilla vs. Kong (-)
Alessandro Ongaro, Sheena Duggal, Aharon Bourland and Pier Lefebvre, Ghostbusters: Afterlife (-)
Geoffrey Baumann, Dave Hodgins, Craig Hammack and Paul Corbould, Black Widow (-)