2018 Oscar Nomination Predictions (Summer Edition)

Too early for Oscar predictions? As if!

So much, of course, is bound to change over the coming months, as a slew of pictures, both big and small, hit theaters with awards season aspirations. There will be the Breathes, the Current Wars and the Detroits, those wannabe Oscar contenders that instead spectacularly fail. There will also be the sleepers, like Get Out and I, Tonya, with surprising success in store. And there will be the heartbreakers, like The Big Sick and The Florida Project, that aren't quite embraced on nominations morning as they should be.

At this point, so far out, nomination predictions are very much a shot in the dark. A handful of contenders have seen the light of day in theaters but the vast majority remain complete question marks.

A series of heavyweight filmmakers, including Damien Chazelle, Barry Jenkins, Mike Lee, Spike Lee and Steve McQueen, will come to play with pictures that, on paper at least, sound like potential knockouts, on the verge of feasting on awards season recognition. Of course, for all we know, Chazelle's First Mancould turn out to be a dud.

There are also countless Oscar favorite actors, among them Christian Bale, Russell Crowe, Viola Davis, Nicole Kidman and Robert Redford, on the hunt for additional nominations to their IMDb pages.

There are a plethora of questions to be answered. Will the latest remake of A Star Is Born live up to its sky-high hype and, moreover, can Lady Gaga really land a Best Actress nom? Is Orson Welles' The Other Side of the Wind a dark horse that could turn the entire race on its head? (Imagine Mercedes McCambridge as a Best Supporting Actress contender!) Will the Academy at last embrace a Spike Lee picture in a significant way? And, perhaps most important of all, is this finally Glenn Close's year?

Those inquiries and so many more shall soon be answered. For now, however, let's take the roughest of stabs at this. Below you'll find my first Oscar nomination predictions of the year, ranked from most to least likely to be recognized. There are a handful of categories, including Best Documentary Feature, Best Foreign Language Film, Best Original Song and the short subjects, that I'll hold off on for a bit.

Of course, I encourage you to comment with your own thoughts as well. My next set of predictions shall land sometime in September.

Happy almost-Oscar season! :)

Best Picture

1. First Man
2. Beautiful Boy
3. If Beale Street Could Talk
4. A Star Is Born
5. Mary, Queen of Scots
6. Boy Erased
7. BlackKKlansman
8. Widows
9. The Favourite
   ---
10. Peterloo
11. On the Basis of Sex
12. Black Panther
13. Backseat
14. The Front Runner
15. The Other Side of the Wind

Best Director

1. Damien Chazelle, First Man
2. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk
3. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
4. Steve McQueen, Widows
5. Spike Lee, BlackKKlansman
   ---
6. Mike Leigh, Peterloo
7. Felix Van Groeningen, Beautiful Boy
8. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther
9. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
10. Joel Edgerton, Boy Erased

Best Leading Actor

1. Steve Carell, Beautiful Boy
2. Ryan Gosling, First Man
3. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
4. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased
5. Robert Redford, The Old Man and the Gun
   ---
6. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity's Gate
7. Christian Bale, Backseat
8. Hugh Jackman, The Front Runner
9. Stephan James, If Beale Street Could Talk
10. John David Washington, BlackKKlansman

Best Leading Actress

1. Saoirse Ronan, Mary, Queen of Scots
2. Viola Davis, Widows
3. Glenn Close, The Wife
4. Kiki Layne, If Beale Street Could Talk
5. Felicity Jones, On the Basis of Sex
   ---
6. Toni Collette, Hereditary
7. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
8. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
9. Emma Stone, The Favourite
10. Charlize Theron, Tully

Best Supporting Actor

1. Timothee Chamalet, Beautiful Boy
2. Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born
3. Adam Driver, BlackKKlansman
4. Russell Crowe, Boy Erased
5. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows
   ---
6. Sam Rockwell, Backseat
7. J.K. Simmons, The Front Runner
8. Armie Hammer, On the Basis of Sex
9. Joel Edgerton, Boy Erased
10. Robert Forster, What They Had

Best Supporting Actress

1. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased
2. Margot Robbie, Mary, Queen of Scots
3. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
4. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
5. Claire Foy, First Man
   ---
6. Olivia Colman, The Favourite
7. Amy Adams, Backseat
8. Michelle Rodriguez, Widows
9. Sissy Spacek, The Old Man and the Gun
10. Kathy Bates, On the Basis of Sex

Best Original Screenplay

1. Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara, The Favourite
2. Mike Leigh, Peterloo
3. Adam McKay, Backseat
4. Daniel Stiepleman, On the Basis of Sex
5. Oja Kodar and Orson Welles, The Other Side of the Wind
   ---
6. Jean-Claude Carriere and Julian Schnabel, At Eternity's Gate
7. Jonah Hill, Mid '90s
8. Bo Burnham, Eighth Grade
9. Diablo Cody, Tully
10. Boots Riley, Sorry to Bother You

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk
2. Spike Lee, David Rabinowitz, Charlie Wachtel and Kevin Willmott, BlackKKlansman
3. Luke Davies, Beautiful Boy
4. Nicole Perman and Josh Singer, First Man
5. Gillian Flynn and Steve McQueen, Widows
   ---
6. Joel Edgerton, Boy Erased
7. Beau Willimon, Mary, Queen of Scots
8. Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters, Irene Mecchi, Stephen J. Rivele, Eric Roth and Christopher Wilkinson, A Star Is Born
9. Matt Bai, Jay Carson and Jason Reitman, The Front Runner
10. Jane Anderson, The Wife

Best Animated Feature

1. The Incredibles 2
2. Isle of Dogs
3. Smallfoot
4. Wreck-It-Ralph 2
5. Fireworks
   ---
6. The Grinch
7. Mirai
8. Spider-Man: Into the Spider Verse
9. Lu Over the Wall
10. Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation

Best Cinematography

1. James Laxton, If Beale Street Could Talk
2. Matthew Libatique, A Star Is Born
3. Sean Bobbitt, Widows
4. Robbie Ryan, The Favourite
5. Linus Sandgren, First Man
   ---
6. Dick Pope, Peterloo
7. John Mathieson, Mary, Queen of Scots
8. Hoyte Van Hoytema, Ad Astra
9. Rachel Morrison, Black Panther
10. Ruben Impens, Beautiful Boy

Best Costume Design

1. Alexandra Byrne, Mary, Queen of Scots
2. Colleen Atwood, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
3. Sandy Powell, The Favourite
4. Jacqueline Durran, Peterloo
5. Jenny Beavan, The Nutcracker and the Four Realms
   ---
6. Andrea Flesch, Colette
7. Sandy Powell, Mary Poppins Returns
8. Mary Zophres, First Man
9. Ruth E. Carter, Black Panther
10. Joanna Johnston, Welcome to Marwen

Best Film Editing

1. Joi McMillon and Nat Sanders, If Beale Street Could Talk
2. Jay Cassidy, A Star Is Born
3. Joe Walker, Widows
4. Tom Cross, First Man
5. Barry Alexander Brown, BlackKKlansman
   ---
6. Sam Sneade, The Favourite
7. Chris Dickens, Mary, Queen of Scots
8. Debbie Berman and Michael P. Shawver, Black Panther
9. Stephen Mirrione, Beautiful Boy
10. Bob Murawski and Orson Welles, The Other Side of the Wind

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Mary, Queen of Scots
2. The Favourite
3. Peterloo
   ---
4. Backseat
5. Black Panther
6. At Eternity's Gate
7. Solo: A Star Wars Story
8. Deadpool 2
9. Suspiria
10. First Man

Best Original Score

1. Justin Hurwitz, First Man
2. Nicholas Britell, If Beale Street Could Talk
3. Terence Blanchard, BlackKKlansman
4. Max Richter, Mary, Queen of Scots
5. Alexandre Desplat, Isle of Dogs
   ---
6. Marc Shaiman and Scott Wittman, Mary Poppins Returns
7. James Newton Howard, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
8. Michael Giacchino, The Incredibles 2
9. Alan Silvestri, Ready Player One
10. Pino Donaggio, Domino

Best Production Design

1. Gina Cromwell and James Merifield, Mary, Queen of Scots
2. Fiona Crombie and Alice Felton, The Favourite
3. John Myrhe and Gordon Sim, Mary Poppins Returns
4. Stuart Craig and Anna Pinnock, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
5. Lisa Chung and Guy Hendrix Dyas, The Nutcracker and the Four Realms
   ---
6. Paul Harrod and Adam Stockhausen, Isle of Dogs
7. Hannah Beachler and Jay Hart, Black Panther
8. Nathan Crowley and Kathy Lucas, First Man
9. Inbal Weinberg, Suspiria
10. Suzie Davies and Charlotte Watts, Peterloo

Best Sound Editing

1. A Star Is Born
2. First Man
3. Mission: Impossible - Fallout
4. Avengers: Infinity War
5. Ad Astra
   ---
6. Black Panther
7. The Incredibles 2
8. Ready Player One
9. Widows
10. Solo: A Star Wars Story

Best Sound Mixing

1. A Star Is Born
2. First Man
3. The Incredibles 2
4. Widows
5. Ad Astra
   ---
6. Black Panther
7. Avengers: Infinity War
8. Mission: Impossible - Fallout
9. Mary Poppins Returns
10. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms

Best Visual Effects

1. First Man
2. Avengers: Infinity War
3. Ready Player One
4. Ad Astra
5. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
   ---
6. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms
7. Black Panther
8. Mowgli
9. Solo: A Star Wars Story
10. Deadpool 2