2018 Oscar Nomination Predictions (December)

Time for another update, awards fans!

It has been a dizzying month since my November predictions, with game-changing Golden Globe and SAG nominations, plus a plethora of critics awards announcing their favorites of the year. Some wannabe-contenders, like First Man, The Front Runner and Widows, stumbled out of the starting gate, with the likes of Green Book, Roma and A Star Is Born having a field day with most of the precursors thus far.

Little, however, is entirely certain when it comes to this year's Oscar nominations - so much can happen between now and January 7 (when AMPAS nominating opens to members), let alone Oscar nominations morning on January 22.

With that said, check out below my latest Oscar predictions, for the month of December. Per usual, in parentheses you will find how many slots a contender has moved up or down since my November rankings. In a number of cases, I have eliminated a film or performer entirely.

Have fun reading and, as always, feel free to comment with your own thoughts too!

Best Picture

1. Roma (+1)

2. A Star Is Born (-1)

3. BlacKkKlansman (-)

4. Green Book (+3)

5. The Favourite (-)

6. If Beale Street Could Talk (-2)

7. Black Panther (+2)

8. Vice (+3)

9. First Man (-3)
   —

10. Mary Poppins Returns (NEW)

11. Crazy Rich Asians (+2)

12. Bohemian Rhapsody (NEW)

13. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (-3)

14. A Quiet Place (NEW)

15. Eighth Grade (NEW)

DROPPED
Widows (-8)
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (-4)
The Mule (-2)
Mary Queen of Scots (-1)

Best Director

1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (-)

2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (-)

3. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (-)

4. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (-)

5. Damien Chazelle, First Man (+1)
   —

6. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (+2)

7. Adam McKay, Vice (+2)

8. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (+2)

9. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (-2)

10. Debra Granik, Leave No Trace (NEW)

DROPPED
Steve McQueen, Widows (-6)

Best Leading Actor

1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (-)

2. Christian Bale, Vice (+1)

3. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (+4)

4. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (-2)

5. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (+3)
   —

6. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity's Gate (-1)

7. John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman (+3)

8. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased (-2)

9. Ryan Gosling, First Man (-5)

10. Robert Redford, The Old Man and the Gun (NEW)

DROPPED
Clint Eastwood, The Mule (-2)

Best Leading Actress

1. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (+1)

2. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (+2)

3. Glenn Close, The Wife (-)

4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (-3)

5. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (NEW)
   —

6. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (+1)

7. Toni Collette, Hereditary (NEW)

8. Regina Hall, Support the Girls (NEW)

9. Rosamund Pike, A Private War (NEW)

10. Yalitza Aparcio, Roma (-4)

DROPPED
Viola Davis, Widows (-6)
Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (-3)
Kiki Layne, If Beale Street Could Talk (-2)
Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots (-1)

Best Supporting Actor

1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (-)

2. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (-)

3. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (+3)

4. Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born (-1)

5. Sam Rockwell, Vice (-1)
   —

6. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (+1)

7. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (+2)

8. Steven Yeun, Burning (NEW)

9. Hugh Grant, Paddington 2 (NEW)

10. Russell Hornsby, The Hate U Give (-)

DROPPED
Daniel Kaluuya, Widows (-6)
Russell Crowe, Boy Erased (-4)

Best Supporting Actress

1. Emma Stone, The Favourite (+1)

2. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (+1)

3. Amy Adams, Vice (+2)

4. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (-3)

5. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (-1)
   —

6. Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots (+3)

7. Claire Foy, First Man (-1)

8. Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place (NEW)

9. Thomasin McKenzie, Leave No Trace (NEW)

10. Marina De Tavira, Roma (-3)

DROPPED
Natalie Portman, Vox Lux (-3)
Sissy Spacek, The Old Man and the Gun (-1)

Best Original Screenplay

1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (-)

2. Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara, The Favourite (-)

3. Brian Hayes Currie, Peter Farrelly and Nick Vallelonga, Green Book (-)

4. Adam McKay, Vice (+1)

5. Bo Burnham, Eighth Grade (+1)
   —

6. Paul Schrader, First Reformed (+1)

7. Joel and Ethan Coen, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (-3)

8. Scott Beck, John Krasinski and Bryan Woods, A Quiet Place (NEW)

9. Jihad Hojeily, Michelle Keserwany, Nadine Labaki and Khaled Mouzanar, Capernaum (-1)

10. Chloe Zhao, The Rider (NEW)

DROPPED
Piotr Borkowski, Janusz Glowacki and Pawel Pawlikowski, Cold War (-2)
Daniel Stiepleman, On the Basis of Sex (-1)

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Spike Lee, David Rabinowitz, Charlie Wachtel and Kevin Willmott, BlacKkKlansman (-)

2. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (-)

3. Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters, Irene Mecchi, Stephen J. Rivele, Eric Roth and Christopher Wilkinson, A Star Is Born (-)

4. Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (-)

5. Debra Granik and Anne Rosellini, Leave No Trace (NEW)
   —

6. Peter Chiarelli and Adele Lim, Crazy Rich Asians (NEW)

7. Jon Robert Cole and Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (-)

8. Josh Singer, First Man (-2)

9. Audrey Wells, The Hate U Give (-1)

10. Joel Edgerton, Boy Erased (-1)

DROPPED
Gillian Flynn and Steve McQueen, Widows (-6)
Beau Willimon, Mary Queen of Scots (-1)

Best Animated Feature

1. Incredibles 2 (-)

2. Spider-Man: Into the Spider Verse (+6)

3. Ralph Breaks the Internet: Wreck-It-Ralph 2 (-)

4. Isle of Dogs (-2)

5. Mirai (-)
   —

6. Lu Over the Wall (-2)

7. Ruben Brandt, Collector (-)

8. Night Is Short, Walk on Girl (+2)

9. Smallfoot (-3)

10. Fireworks (-1)

Best Documentary Feature

1. RBG (-)

2. Free Solo (-)

3. Minding the Gap (+1)

4. Won’t You Be My Neighbor? (+2)

5. Three Identical Strangers (-2)
   —

6. The Oslo Diaries (+1)

7. King in the Wilderness (-2)

8. The Price of Everything (+1)

9. They’ll Love Me When I’m Dead (-1)

10. Maria By Callas: In Her Own Words (-)

Best Foreign Language Film

1. Roma (Mexico) (-)

2. Capernaum (Lebanon) (-)

3. Shoplifters (Japan) (+2)

4. Never Look Away (Germany) (-)

5. Cold War (Poland) (-2)
   —

6. Border (Sweden) (-)

7. Burning (South Korea) (NEW)

8. Girl (Belgium) (-)

9. Sunset (Hungary) (-2)

10. Ghost Hunting (Palestine) (-1)

DROPPED
The Interpreter (Slovakia) (-1)

Best Cinematography

1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (+1)

2. Matthew Libatique, A Star Is Born (-1)

3. Robbie Ryan, The Favourite (-)

4. Rachel Morrison, Black Panther (+1)

5. Linus Sandgren, First Man (+1)
   —

6. James Laxton, If Beale Street Could Talk (-2)

7. Dion Beebe, Mary Poppins Returns (NEW)

8. Bruno Delbonnel, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (-)

9. Caleb Deschanel, Never Look Away (+1)

10. Christopher Aoun, Capernaum (-1)

DROPPED
Sean Bobbitt, Widows (-4)

Best Costume Design

1. Sandy Powell, The Favourite (-)

2. Sandy Powell, Mary Poppins Returns (-)

3. Ruth E. Carter, Black Panther (+1)

4. Colleen Atwood, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (-1)

5. Alexandra Byrne, Mary Queen of Scots (+1)
   —

6. Andrea Flesch, Colette (-1)

7. Mary Vogt, Crazy Rich Asians (NEW)

8. Julian Day, Bohemian Rhapsody (NEW)

9. Caroline Eselin, If Beale Street Could Talk (-2)

10. Mary Zophres, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (-2)

DROPPED
Jenny Beavan, The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (-2)
Guy Speranza, Stan and Ollie (-1)

Best Film Editing

1. Alfonso Cuaron and Adam Gough, Roma (+1)

2. Jay Cassidy, A Star Is Born (-1)

3. Tom Cross, First Man (-)

4. Debbie Berman and Michael P. Shawver, Black Panther (+4)

5. Barry Alexander Brown, BlacKkKlansman (+1)
   —

6. Patrick J. Don Vito, Green Book (NEW)

7. Wyatt Smith, Mary Poppins Returns (+2)

8. Joi McMillon and Nat Sanders, If Beale Street Could Talk (-4)

9. Sam Sneade, The Favourite (-2)

10. Hank Corwin, Vice (-)

DROPPED
Joe Walker, Widows (-6)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Vice (-)

2. The Favourite (-)

3. Mary Poppins Returns (+1)
   —

4. Black Panther (+4)

5. Mary Queen of Scots (+5)

6. Stan and Ollie (-3)

7. Deadpool 2 (-2)

8. Suspiria (+1)

9. A Star Is Born (NEW)

10. Colette (-3)

DROPPED
Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (-5)

Best Original Score

1. Justin Hurwitz, First Man (+1)

2. Marc Shaiman and Scott Wittman, Mary Poppins Returns (+1)

3. Nicholas Britell, If Beale Street Could Talk (-2)

4. Alexandre Desplat, Isle of Dogs (+1)

5. Terence Blanchard, BlacKkKlansman (-1)
   —

6. Carter Burwell, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (+1)

7. Ludwig Goransson, Black Panther (NEW)

8. Michael Giacchino, Incredibles 2 (+1)

9. Marco Beltrami, A Quiet Place (NEW)

10. James Newton Howard, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (-2)

DROPPED
Hans Zimmer, Widows (-5)
Michel Legrand, The Other Side of the Wind (-1)

Best Original Song

1. “Shallow,” A Star Is Born (-)

2. “All the Stars,” Black Panther (+1)

3. “The Place Where Lost Things Go,” Mary Poppins Returns (+1)

4. “Gravity,” Free Solo (+1)

5. “I’ll Fight,” RBG (+1)
   —

6. “Requiem for a Private War,” A Private War (NEW)

7. “Revelation,” Boy Erased (NEW)

8. “Trip a Little Light Fantastic,” Mary Poppins Returns (+1)

9. “Girl at the Movies,” Dumplin’ (NEW)

10. “Time for Change,” On the Basis of Sex (-2)

DROPPED
”I’ll Never Love Again,” A Star Is Born (-9)
“Always Remember Us This Way,” A Star Is Born (-4)
“Here I Am,” Dumplin’ (-1)

Best Production Design

1. Fiona Crombie and Alice Felton, The Favourite (-)

2. John Myrhe and Gordon Sim, Mary Poppins Returns (-)

3. Hannah Beachler and Jay Hart, Black Panther (+1)

4. Gina Cromwell and James Merifield, Mary Queen of Scots (+6)

5. Stuart Craig and Anna Pinnock, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (-2)
   —

6. Paul Harrod and Adam Stockhausen, Isle of Dogs (-1)

7. Mark Friedberg and Kris Moran, If Beale Street Could Talk (-)

8. Michael Carlin, Lisa Chugg and Nora Talmaier, Colette (-)

9. Lisa Chung and Guy Hendrix Dyas, The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (-3)

10. Jess Gonchor and Nancy Haigh, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (-1)

Best Sound Editing

1. Alan Robert Murray, A Star Is Born (-)

2. Steve Boeddeker and Benjamin A. Burtt, Black Panther (+1)

3. Eugene Gearty and Renee Tondelli, Mary Poppins Returns (+1)

4. Ai-Ling Lee and Mildred Iatrou Morgan, First Man (-2)

5. Erik Aadahl and Ethan Van Der Ryn, A Quiet Place (+1)
   —

6. Sergio Diaz and Skip Lievsay, Roma (NEW)

7. John Warhurst, Bohemian Rhapsody (NEW)

8. Richard Hymns and Gary Rydstrom, Ready Player One (-3)

9. Cora Elliott and Ren Klyce, Incredibles 2 (-1)

10. Philip Stockman, BlacKkKlansman (NEW)

DROPPED
Widows (-4)
Mission: Impossible - Fallout (-2)
The Mule (-1)

Best Sound Mixing

1. Steve Morrow, Tom Ozanich, Jason Ruder and Dean Zupancic, A Star Is Born (-)

2. Steve Boeddecker, Peter Devlin and Brandon Proctor, Black Panther (+1)

3. Simon Hayes, Micheal Keller and Mike Prestwood Smith, Mary Poppins Returns (+1)

4. Jason Casali, Tim Cavagin and Paul Massey, Bohemian Rhapsody (NEW)

5. Mary H. Ellis, Ai-Ling Lee, Frank A. Montano and Jon Taylor, First Man (-3)
   —

6. Michael Barosky and Brandon Proctor, A Quiet Place (+2)

7. Jose Antonio Garcia, Craig Henighan and Skip Lievsay, Roma (-)

8. Vince Caro, Nathan Nance and Michael Semanick, Incredibles 2 (-2)

9. Tom Johnson, Juan Peralta and John Pritchett, Avengers: Infinity War (NEW)

10. Chris Munro, Andy Nelson and Gary Ruydstrom, Ready Player One (-1)

DROPPED
Widows (-6)
The Mule (-1)

Best Visual Effects

1. Black Panther (+2)

2. Avengers: Infinity War (-1)

3. Mary Poppins Returns (+2)

4. First Man (-2)

5. Ready Player One (-1)
   —

6. Isle of Dogs (+1)

7. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (-1)

8. Aquaman (NEW)

9. A Quiet Place (NEW)

10. Incredibles 2 (NEW)

DROPPED
The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (-3)
Deadpool 2 (-2)
A Wrinkle in Time (-1)