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At last, Black Panther cracks Best Picture!

At last, Black Panther cracks Best Picture!

2018 Oscar Nomination Predictions (November)

November 07, 2018 by Andrew Carden in Oscars, Oscars 2018

Howdy, my fellow Oscar aficionados!

Over the past month, since my October forecast, the following events have gone down in this awesomely unpredictable awards season:

  • A trickle of new trailers continue to drop, with the past month seeing releases from Destroyer and Vox Lux

  • The Gotham Awards kicked off precursor season with its set of nominees. (Yay Glenn!)

  • Despite strong reviews, Damien Chazelle’s First Man opened at the domestic box office to a resounding thud. Can the Ryan Gosling picture hang on and still net 10+ Oscar nominations or have we been overestimating this thing all along?

  • Speaking of awards season contenders in free fall, Queen biopic Bohemian Rhapsody was met with a decidedly chilly reception from critics. Will leading man Rami Malek, who did earn strong notices despite the film’s otherwise middling reviews, hang on in Best Actor contention?

  • Fox Searchlight confirmed Olivia Colman will be the lone Best Actress push for The Favourite, with co-stars/Oscar winners Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz vying for Best Supporting Actress love.

  • In a very wise move, Sony Pictures Classics bumped Jonathan Pryce down from Best Actor to a Best Supporting Actor push for The Wife.

With that said, please see below my latest set of Oscar predictions, for the month of November. In parentheses you will find how many slots a contender has moved up or down since my last rankings. In a number of cases, I have dropped a film or performer entirely. Also, for the first time this season, I am taking a stab at Best Original Song.

Enjoy reading and, as always, feel free to comment with your own thoughts as well!

Best Picture

  1. A Star Is Born (+1)

  2. Roma (+1)

  3. BlacKkKlansman (+4)

  4. If Beale Street Could Talk (-)

  5. The Favourite (+1)

  6. First Man (-5)

  7. Green Book (-2)

  8. Widows (-)

  9. Black Panther (+2)
    —

  10. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (-1)

  11. Vice (-)

  12. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (+3)

  13. Crazy Rich Asians (+1)

  14. The Mule (-2)

  15. Mary Queen of Scots (-2)

Best Director

  1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (+1)

  2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (+1)

  3. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (+3)

  4. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (-)

  5. Steve McQueen, Widows (-)
    —

  6. Damien Chazelle, First Man (-5)

  7. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (-)

  8. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (NEW)

  9. Adam McKay, Vice (-1)

  10. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (-)

DROPPED
Clint Eastwood, The Mule (-2)

Best Leading Actor

  1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (-)

  2. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (+2)

  3. Christian Bale, Vice (+2)

  4. Ryan Gosling, First Man (-2)

  5. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity's Gate (-2)
    —

  6. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased (+1)

  7. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (+2)

  8. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (NEW)

  9. Clint Eastwood, The Mule (-1)

  10. John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman (-)

DROPPED
Robert Redford, The Old Man and the Gun (-5)

Best Leading Actress

  1. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (-)

  2. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (NEW)

  3. Glenn Close, The Wife (-1)

  4. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (-1)

  5. Viola Davis, Widows (-)
    —

  6. Yalitza Aparcio, Roma (-)

  7. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (+1)

  8. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (+1)

  9. Kiki Layne, If Beale Street Could Talk (-2)

  10. Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots (-)

DROPPED
Emma Stone, The Favourite (-6)

Best Supporting Actor

  1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (-)

  2. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (+1)

  3. Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born (-1)

  4. Sam Rockwell, Vice (+3)

  5. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows (+1)
    —

  6. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (+3)

  7. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (-3)

  8. Russell Crowe, Boy Erased (-)

  9. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (NEW)

  10. Russell Hornsby, The Hate U Give (NEW)

DROPPED
Stephan James, If Beale Street Could Talk (-6)
Robert Forster, What They Had (-1)

Best Supporting Actress

  1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (+1)

  2. Emma Stone, The Favourite (NEW)

  3. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (+2)

  4. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (-1)

  5. Amy Adams, Vice (+2)
    —

  6. Claire Foy, First Man (-5)

  7. Marina De Tavira, Roma (NEW)

  8. Natalie Portman, Vox Lux (-)

  9. Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots (-)

  10. Sissy Spacek, The Old Man and the Gun (-4)

DROPPED
Olivia Colman, The Favourite (-7)
Kathy Bates, On the Basis of Sex (-1)

Best Original Screenplay

  1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (-)

  2. Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara, The Favourite (-)

  3. Brian Hayes Currie, Peter Farrelly and Nick Vallelonga, Green Book (-)

  4. Joel and Ethan Coen, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (-)

  5. Adam McKay, Vice (+1)
    —

  6. Bo Burnham, Eighth Grade (+3)

  7. Paul Schrader, First Reformed (NEW)

  8. Jihad Hojeily, Michelle Keserwany, Nadine Labaki and Khaled Mouzanar, Capernaum (+1)

  9. Piotr Borkowski, Janusz Glowacki and Pawel Pawlikowski, Cold War (NEW)

  10. Daniel Stiepleman, On the Basis of Sex (+1)

DROPPED
Jonah Hill, Mid '90s (-6)
Jean-Claude Carriere and Julian Schnabel, At Eternity's Gate (-4)

Best Adapted Screenplay

  1. Spike Lee, David Rabinowitz, Charlie Wachtel and Kevin Willmott, BlacKkKlansman (+1)

  2. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (-1)

  3. Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters, Irene Mecchi, Stephen J. Rivele, Eric Roth and Christopher Wilkinson, A Star Is Born (+1)

  4. Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (+1)

  5. Gillian Flynn and Steve McQueen, Widows (+1)
    —

  6. Josh Singer, First Man (-3)

  7. Jon Robert Cole and Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (+3)

  8. Audrey Wells, The Hate U Give (NEW)

  9. Joel Edgerton, Boy Erased (-2)

  10. Beau Willimon, Mary Queen of Scots (-1)

DROPPED
David Lowery, The Old Man and the Gun (-3)

Best Animated Feature

  1. The Incredibles 2 (-)

  2. Isle of Dogs (+1)

  3. Ralph Breaks the Internet: Wreck-It-Ralph 2 (-1)

  4. Lu Over the Wall (-)

  5. Mirai (+2)
    —

  6. Smallfoot (-1)

  7. Ruben Brandt, Collector (NEW)

  8. Spider-Man: Into the Spider Verse (+2)

  9. Fireworks (-3)

  10. Night Is Short, Walk on Girl (NEW)

DROPPED
The Grinch (-4)
Tito and the Birds (-2)

Best Documentary Feature

  1. RBG (-)

  2. Free Solo (NEW)

  3. Three Identical Strangers (-1)

  4. Minding the Gap (NEW)

  5. King in the Wilderness (-2)
    —

  6. Won’t You Be My Neighbor? (-2)

  7. The Oslo Diaries (-2)

  8. They’ll Love Me When I’m Dead (NEW)

  9. The Price of Everything (-1)

  10. Maria By Callas: In Her Own Words (NEW)

DROPPED
The Silence of Others (-5)
Inventing Tomorrow (-4)
Fahrenheit 11/9 (-2)
Jane Fonda in Five Acts (-1)

Best Foreign Language Film

  1. Roma (Mexico) (-)

  2. Capernaum (Lebanon) (-)

  3. Cold War (Poland) (+1)

  4. Never Look Away (Germany) (-1)

  5. Shoplifters (Japan) (+1)
    —

  6. Border (Sweden) (+1)

  7. Sunset (Hungary) (-2)

  8. Girl (Belgium) (-)

  9. Ghost Hunting (Palestine) (+1)

  10. The Interpreter (Slovakia) (-1)

Best Cinematography

  1. Matthew Libatique, A Star Is Born (-)

  2. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (+2)

  3. Robbie Ryan, The Favourite (+2)

  4. James Laxton, If Beale Street Could Talk (-1)

  5. Rachel Morrison, Black Panther (+2)
    —

  6. Linus Sandgren, First Man (-4)

  7. Sean Bobbitt, Widows (-)

  8. Bruno Delbonnel, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (+2)

  9. Christopher Aoun, Capernaum (-)

  10. Caleb Deschanel, Never Look Away (-2)

Best Costume Design

  1. Sandy Powell, The Favourite (-)

  2. Sandy Powell, Mary Poppins Returns (-)

  3. Colleen Atwood, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (-)

  4. Ruth E. Carter, Black Panther (+3)

  5. Andrea Flesch, Colette (-)
    —

  6. Alexandra Byrne, Mary Queen of Scots (-)

  7. Caroline Eselin, If Beale Street Could Talk (+3)

  8. Mary Zophres, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (NEW)

  9. Jenny Beavan, The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (-)

  10. Guy Speranza, Stan and Ollie (-2)

DROPPED
Mary Zophres, First Man (-7)

Best Film Editing

  1. Jay Cassidy, A Star Is Born (+1)

  2. Alfonso Cuaron and Adam Gough, Roma (+1)

  3. Tom Cross, First Man (-2)

  4. Joi McMillon and Nat Sanders, If Beale Street Could Talk (+1)

  5. Joe Walker, Widows (-1)
    —

  6. Barry Alexander Brown, BlacKkKlansman (-)

  7. Sam Sneade, The Favourite (-)

  8. Debbie Berman and Michael P. Shawver, Black Panther (+1)

  9. Wyatt Smith, Mary Poppins Returns (NEW)

  10. Hank Corwin, Vice (-2)

DROPPED
William Goldenberg, 22 July (-1)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

  1. Vice (-)

  2. The Favourite (-)

  3. Stan and Ollie (-)
    —

  4. Mary Poppins Returns (NEW)

  5. Deadpool 2 (+2)

  6. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (+2)

  7. Colette (-1)

  8. Black Panther (+1)

  9. Suspiria (+1)

  10. Mary Queen of Scots (-6)

DROPPED
At Eternity's Gate (-6)

Best Original Score

  1. Nicholas Britell, If Beale Street Could Talk (+1)

  2. Justin Hurwitz, First Man (-1)

  3. Marc Shaiman and Scott Wittman, Mary Poppins Returns (+1)

  4. Terence Blanchard, BlacKkKlansman (-1)

  5. Alexandre Desplat, Isle of Dogs (-)
    —

  6. Hans Zimmer, Widows (-)

  7. Carter Burwell, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (NEW)

  8. James Newton Howard, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (-1)

  9. Michael Giacchino, The Incredibles 2 (-1)

  10. Michel Legrand, The Other Side of the Wind (-)

DROPPED
Nicholas Britell, Vice (-2)

Best Original Song

  1. “The Shallow,” A Star Is Born

  2. ”I’ll Never Love Again,” A Star Is Born*

  3. “All the Stars,” Black Panther

  4. “The Place Where Lost Things Go,” Mary Poppins Returns

  5. “Gravity,” Free Solo
    —

  6. “I’ll Fight,” RBG

  7. “Always Remember Us This Way,” A Star Is Born*

  8. “Time for Change,” On the Basis of Sex

  9. “Trip a Little Light Fantastic,” Mary Poppins Returns

  10. “Here I Am,” Dumplin’

*it remains unclear how many A Star Is Born tunes will be pushed. If “The Shallow” is the lone entry, place “Revelation” (Boy Erased) and “Hearts Beat Loud” (Hearts Beat Loud) in 9th and 10th.

Best Production Design

  1. Fiona Crombie and Alice Felton, The Favourite (-)

  2. John Myrhe and Gordon Sim, Mary Poppins Returns (-)

  3. Stuart Craig and Anna Pinnock, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (-)

  4. Hannah Beachler and Jay Hart, Black Panther (+5)

  5. Paul Harrod and Adam Stockhausen, Isle of Dogs (+2)
    —

  6. Lisa Chung and Guy Hendrix Dyas, The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (-1)

  7. Mark Friedberg and Kris Moran, If Beale Street Could Talk (NEW)

  8. Michael Carlin, Lisa Chugg and Nora Talmaier, Colette (+2)

  9. Jess Gonchor and Nancy Haigh, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (NEW)

  10. Gina Cromwell and James Merifield, Mary Queen of Scots (-4)

DROPPED
Nathan Crowley and Kathy Lucas, First Man (-7)
Stephan Cressend and Cecile Vatelot, At Eternity’s Gate (-1)

Best Sound Editing

  1. A Star Is Born (-)

  2. First Man (-)

  3. Black Panther (+1)

  4. Mary Poppins Returns (+1)

  5. Ready Player One (+2)
    —

  6. A Quiet Place (NEW)

  7. Widows (+2)

  8. The Incredibles 2 (-)

  9. Mission: Impossible - Fallout (-6)

  10. The Mule (NEW)

DROPPED
Bohemian Rhapsody (-6)
22 July (-1)

Best Sound Mixing

  1. A Star Is Born (-)

  2. First Man (-)

  3. Black Panther (+4)

  4. Mary Poppins Returns (+1)

  5. Widows (-1)
    —

  6. The Incredibles 2 (-3)

  7. Roma (+2)

  8. A Quiet Place (NEW)

  9. Ready Player One (NEW)

  10. The Mule (NEW)

DROPPED
Bohemian Rhapsody (-5)
Mission: Impossible - Fallout (-3)
The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (-1)

Best Visual Effects

  1. Avengers: Infinity War (+1)

  2. First Man (-1)

  3. Black Panther (+2)

  4. Ready Player One (-1)

  5. Mary Poppins Returns (NEW)
    —

  6. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (-2)

  7. Isle of Dogs (+2)

  8. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (-2)

  9. Deadpool 2 (-1)

  10. A Wrinkle in Time (-3)

DROPPED
Solo: A Star Wars Story (-1)

November 07, 2018 /Andrew Carden
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