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FINAL 2016 Oscar Nomination Predictions!

January 17, 2017 by Andrew Carden in Oscars

This is it, folks - my final Oscar nomination predictions! Since my last commentary in December, a ton has gone down in the awards season - Golden Globes were handed out, as were BAFTA nods and nominations from the Directors, Writers and Producers Guilds of America. Next week, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will (at last!) offer its two cents on the best of cinema in 2016 and, not long after that, BAFTA and the guilds will be announcing their winners. As a reminder, this year's Oscar ceremony falls on February 26.

So, that being said, here are my final predictions. In parentheses you will see how many slots a contender has moved up or down since my December rankings. In some cases, I have eliminated a film or performer entirely.

Enjoy and, as always, feel free to comment with your own thoughts as well!

(PS: As I did last year, I will again be hosting an Oscar winners prediction contest, with a Fandango gift card as grand prize. Keep an eye out for more details on that, after the nominations are announced.)

Best Picture

  1. La La Land (-)
  2. Moonlight (-)
  3. Manchester by the Sea (-)
  4. Lion (-)
  5. Hidden Figures (+2)
  6. Arrival (-1)
  7. Fences (-1)
  8. Hacksaw Ridge (+1)
  9. Hell or High Water (+1)
    ---
  10. Nocturnal Animals (+3)
  11. Silence (-3)
  12. Deadpool (NEW)
  13. Loving (-2)
  14. Jackie (-2)
  15. Sully (-1)

DROPPED
Florence Foster Jenkins (-1)

Best Director

  1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (-)
  2. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (-)
  3. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (-)
  4. Denis Villanueve, Arrival (+1)
  5. Garth Davis, Lion (+2)
    ---
  6. Martin Scorsese, Silence (-2)
  7. Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge (-1)
  8. David Mackenzie, Hell or High Water (-)
  9. Pablo Larrain, Jackie (-)
  10. Clint Eastwood, Sully (-)

Best Lead Actor

  1. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (-)
  2. Denzel Washington, Fences (-)
  3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (-)
  4. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (-)
  5. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge (-)
    ---
  6. Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals (NEW)
  7. Ryan Reynolds, Deadpool (+1)
  8. Joel Edgerton, Loving (-2)
  9. Colin Farrell, The Lobster (-2)
  10. Tom Hanks, Sully (-1)

DROPPED
Michael Keaton, The Founder (-1)

Best Lead Actress

  1. Emma Stone, La La Land (+1)
  2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (-1)
  3. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (-)
  4. Amy Adams, Arrival (+1)
  5. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (-1)
    ---
  6. Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train (+3)
  7. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (-1)
  8. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (NEW)
  9. Ruth Negga, Loving (-2)
  10. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (-)

DROPPED
Hailee Steinfeld, The Edge of Seventeen (-3)

Best Supporting Actor

  1. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (-)
  2. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (-)
  3. Dev Patel, Lion (-)
  4. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (+2)
  5. Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Nocturnal Animals (+4)
    ---
  6. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (-1)
  7. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (-2)
  8. Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures (NEW)
  9. Issey Ogata, Silence (-2)
  10. Ben Foster, Hell or High Water (-2)

DROPPED
Simon Helberg, Florence Foster Jenkins (-1)

Best Supporting Actress

  1. Viola Davis, Fences (-)
  2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (-)
  3. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (-)
  4. Nicole Kidman, Lion (-)
  5. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (-)
    ---
  6. Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures (+1)
  7. Lily Gladstone, Certain Women (-1)
  8. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (+1)
  9. Hayley Squires, I, Daniel Blake (NEW)
  10. Laura Linney, Nocturnal Animals (NEW)

DROPPED
Molly Shannon, Other People (-3)
Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls (-1)

Best Original Screenplay

  1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (+1)
  2. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (-1)
  3. Taylor Sheridan, Hell or High Water (-)
  4. Matt Ross, Captain Fantastic (-)
  5. Noah Oppenheim, Jackie (-)
    ---
  6. Nicholas Martin, Florence Foster Jenkins (-)
  7. Efthimis Filippou and Yorgos Lanthimos, The Lobster (-)
  8. Jared Bush, Byron Howard, Phil Johnston, Jennifer Lee, Rich Moore, Jim Reardon and Josie Trinidad, Zootopia (+1)
  9. Paul Laverty, I, Daniel Blake (NEW)
  10. Maren Ade, Toni Erdmann (NEW)

DROPPED
Mike Mills, 20th Century Women (-3)
Peter Berg, Matt Cook and Joshua Zetumer, Patriots Day (-1)

Best Adapted Screenplay

  1. Barry Jenkins and Tarell McCraney, Moonlight (-)
  2. Luke Davies, Lion (+1)
  3. Eric Heisserer, Arrival (+3)
  4. August Wilson, Fences (-2)
  5. Allison Schroeder and Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures (+2)
    ---
  6. Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals (+2)
  7. Jeff Nichols, Loving (-3)
  8. Andrew Knight and Robert Schenkkan, Hacksaw Ridge (+2)
  9. Jay Cocks, Silence (-4)
  10. David Birke, Elle (NEW)

DROPPED
Todd Komarnicki, Sully (-2)

Best Animated Feature

  1. Zootopia (-)
  2. Moana (-)
  3. Kubo and the Two Strings (+3)
  4. Miss Hokusai (+4)
  5. The Red Turtle (-1)
    ---
  6. Sing (-3)
  7. Finding Dory (-2)
  8. The Little Prince (NEW)
  9. April and the Extraordinary World (-2)
  10. My Life as a Zucchini (NEW)

Best Cinematography

  1. Linus Sandgren, La La Land (-)
  2. James Laxton, Moonlight (-)
  3. Bradford Young, Arrival (-)
  4. Bill Pope, The Jungle Book (+3)
  5. Seamus McGarvey, Nocturnal Animals (+1)
    ---
  6. Rodrigo Prieto, Silence (-3)
  7. Greig Fraser, Lion (+1)
  8. Giles Nuttgens, Hell or High Water (+1)
  9. Stephanie Fontaine, Jackie (-4)
  10. Greig Fraser, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (NEW)

DROPPED
Robert Richardson, Live by Night (-1)

Best Costume Design

  1. Mary Zophres, La La Land (-)
  2. Madeline Fontaine, Jackie (-)
  3. Consolata Boyle, Florence Foster Jenkins (-)
  4. Marion Boyce and Margot Wilson, The Dressmaker (NEW)
  5. Colleen Atwood, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (-1)
    ---
  6. Renee Ehrlich Kalfus, Hidden Figures (+2)
  7. Dante Ferretti, Silence (-2)
  8. Seong-hie Ryu, The Handmaiden (-1)
  9. Lizzy Gardiner, Hacksaw Ridge (-)
  10. Mary Zophres, Hail, Caesar! (NEW)

DROPPED
Eimer Ni Mhaoldomhnaigh, Love & Friendship (-5)
Sharen Davis, Fences (-2)

Best Film Editing

  1. Tom Cross, La La Land (-)
  2. Joi McMillon and Nat Sanders, Moonlight (-)
  3. Jennifer Lame, Manchester by the Sea (-)
  4. John Gilbert, Hacksaw Ridge (+6)
  5. Alexandre de Francheschi, Lion (-)
    ---
  6. Joe Walker, Arrival (-)
  7. Thelma Schoonmaker, Silence (-3)
  8. Joan Sobel, Nocturnal Animals (-)
  9. Jake Roberts, Hell or High Water (NEW)
  10. Sebastián Sepúlveda, Jackie (-3)

DROPPED
Blu Murray, Sully (-2)

Best Production Design

  1. David Wasco, La La Land (-)
  2. Barry Robison, Hacksaw Ridge (+5)
  3. Christopher Glass, The Jungle Book (+2)
  4. Jean Rabasse, Jackie (-1)
  5. Patrice Vermette, Arrival (+5)
    ---
  6. Dante Ferretti, Silence (-4)
  7. Stuart Craig, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (-3)
  8. Alan MacDonald, Florence Foster Jenkins (-2)
  9. Doug Chiang and Neil Lamont, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (NEW)
  10. Jeremy Woolsey, Hidden Figures (NEW)

DROPPED
Anna Rackard, Love & Friendship (-3)
Jess Gonchor, Live by Night (-2)

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

  1. Florence Foster Jenkins (-)
  2. Deadpool (NEW)
  3. A Man Called Ove (NEW)
    ---
  4. Star Trek: Beyond (NEW)
  5. Hail, Caesar! (-1)
  6. Suicide Squad (+3)
  7. The Dressmaker (NEW)

DROPPED
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (-10)
Jackie (-8)
Hacksaw Ridge (-6)
Nocturnal Animals (-5)
Silence (-4)
Love & Friendship (-3)
La La Land (-1)

Best Original Score

  1. Justin Hurwitz, La La Land (-)
  2. Dustin O’Halloran and Hauschka, Lion (-)
  3. Alexandre Desplat, Florence Foster Jenkins (+1)
  4. John Williams, The BFG (+1)
  5. Hans Zimmer, Pharrell Williams and Benjamin Wallfisch, Hidden Figures (NEW)
    ---
  6. Mica Levi, Jackie (-3)
  7. Nicholas Britell, Moonlight (+1)
  8. Abel Korzeniowski, Nocturnal Animals (-1)
  9. Michael Giacchino, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (-3)
  10. Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, Patriots Day (-)

DROPPED
Mark Mancina, Moana (-2)

Best Original Song

  1. "City of Stars," La La Land (-)
  2. "Audition (The Fools Who Dream)," La La Land (+1)
  3. "How Far I'll Go," Moana (-1)
  4. "I See Victory," Hidden Figures (+1)
  5. "We Know the Way," Moana (-1)
    ---
  6. "A Letter to the Free," 13th (+2)
  7. "Can't Stop the Feeling," Trolls (-)
  8. "Drive It Like You Stole It," Sing Street (-2)
  9. "Faith," Sing (-)
  10. "The Rules Don't Apply," Rules Don't Apply (-)

Best Sound Editing

  1. La La Land (-)
  2. Arrival (-)
  3. Hacksaw Ridge (-)
  4. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (-)
  5. Deepwater Horizon (+2)
    ---
  6. Captain America: Civil War (+2)
  7. The Jungle Book (NEW)
  8. Patriots Day (-2)
  9. Sully (-4)
  10. Deadpool (NEW)

DROPPED
Silence (-3)
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (-1)

Best Sound Mixing

  1. La La Land (-)
  2. Arrival (-)
  3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (-)
  4. Hacksaw Ridge (+1)
  5. The Jungle Book (NEW)
    ---
  6. Zootopia (-)
  7. Captain America: Civil War (+2)
  8. Deepwater Horizon (NEW)
  9. Hell or High Water (NEW)
  10. Sully (-6)

DROPPED
Moana (-4)
Silence (-3)
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (-1)

Best Visual Effects

  1. Arrival (-)
  2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (-)
  3. The Jungle Book (+1)
  4. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (-1)
  5. Captain America: Civil War (-)
    ---
  6. Deepwater Horizon (+4)
  7. Kubo and the Two Strings (NEW)
  8. Doctor Strange (-)
  9. Passengers (-4)
  10. The BFG (NEW)

DROPPED
Sully (-5)
Deadpool (-4)

Best Documentary Feature

  1. 13th (-)
  2. I Am Not Your Negro (+2)
  3. Gleason (-1)
  4. The Eagle Huntress (-1)
  5. Fire at Sea (-)
    ---
  6. O.J.: Made in America (+3)
  7. Cameraperson (+1)
  8. Zero Days (+2)
  9. The Ivory Game (-3)
  10. Life, Animated (-3)

Best Foreign Language Film

  1. Toni Erdmann (Germany) (-)
  2. The Salesman (Iran) (-)
  3. My Life as a Zucchini (Switzerland) (+3)
  4. Land of Mine (Denmark) (-1)
  5. A Man Called Ove (Sweden) (-)
    ---
  6. The King's Choice (Norway) (-2)
  7. Tanna (Australia) (+1)
  8. It's Only the End of the World (Canada) (-1)
  9. Paradise (Russia) (-)
January 17, 2017 /Andrew Carden
Oscars 2016, Oscars
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