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2016 Oscar Nomination Predictions (November)

November 04, 2016 by Andrew Carden in Oscars

Howdy, fellow Oscar junkies!

Since October and my last set of Oscar predictions, the following events have gone down in this wild and awesome ride of an awards season:

  • Ang Lee's Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk garnered mixed-to-negative notices from attendees of its New York Film Festival premiere.
     
  • Paramount Pictures announced Viola Davis will receive a Best Supporting Actress campaign for her turn in Denzel Washington's Fences.
     
  • New trailers dropped for Annette Bening pics 20th Century Women and Rules Don't Apply.
     
  • The Academy announced 85 foreign language films and 145 documentary features will compete for consideration in their respective categories.

Please check out below my latest Oscar predix, for the month of November. In parentheses you will find how many slots a contender has moved up or down since my October rankings. In a number of cases (I'm looking at you, Billy Lynn), I have booted a film or performer entirely.

Enjoy and, as always, feel free to comment with your own thoughts as well!

Best Picture

  1. La La Land (-)
  2. Jackie (-)
  3. Arrival (+3)
  4. Manchester by the Sea (-1)
  5. Silence (+2)
  6. Moonlight (+4)
  7. Fences (-3)
  8. Loving (-)
  9. Hidden Figures (-)
    ---
  10. Rules Don't Apply (+5)
  11. 20th Century Women (+1)
  12. Lion (-1)
  13. Sully (NEW)
  14. Nocturnal Animals (-1)
  15. Allied (-1)

DROPPED
Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (-10)

Best Director

  1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (-)
  2. Denis Villanueve, Arrival (-)
  3. Martin Scorsese, Silence (+1)
  4. Pablo Larrain, Jackie (+2)
  5. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (+2)
    ---
  6. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (+4)
  7. Denzel Washington, Fences (-2)
  8. Warren Beatty, Rules Don't Apply (+1)
  9. Clint Eastwood, Sully (NEW)
  10. Jeff Nichols, Loving (-2)

DROPPED
Ang Lee, Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (-7)

Best Lead Actor

  1. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (-)
  2. Denzel Washington, Fences (-)
  3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (-)
  4. Joel Edgerton, Loving (-)
  5. Andrew Garfield, Silence (+1)
    ---
  6. Warren Beatty, Rules Don't Apply (NEW)
  7. Tom Hanks, Sully (-)
  8. Michael Keaton, The Founder (+1)
  9. Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals (-1)
  10. Robert De Niro, The Comedian (NEW)

DROPPED:
Joe Alwyn, Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (-5)
Dev Patel, Lion (-1)

Best Lead Actress

  1. Emma Stone, La La Land (-)
  2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (-)
  3. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (+1)
  4. Amy Adams, Arrival (+3)
  5. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (-)
    ---
  6. Ruth Negga, Loving (-)
  7. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (+1)
  8. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (+1)
  9. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (+1)
  10. Kate Beckinsale, Love & Friendship (NEW)

DROPPED
Viola Davis, Fences (-7)

Best Supporting Actor

  1. Liam Neeson, Silence (-)
  2. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (+2)
  3. Peter Sarsgaard, Jackie (-)
  4. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (-2)
  5. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (+1)
    ---
  6. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (-1)
  7. Adam Driver, Silence (-)
  8. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (NEW)
  9. Dev Patel, Lion (NEW)
  10. Stephen Henderson, Fences (-1)

DROPPED
Steve Martin, Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (-3)
Mykelti Williamson, Fences (-1)

Best Supporting Actress

  1. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (-)
  2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (-)
  3. Viola Davis, Fences (NEW)
  4. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (-1)
  5. Nicole Kidman, Lion (-)
    ---
  6. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (-)
  7. Lupita Nyong'o, Queen of Katwe (-)
  8. Annette Bening, Rules Don't Apply (-)
  9. Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls (-)
  10. Molly Shannon, Other People (-)

DROPPED
Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (-6)

Best Original Screenplay

  1. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (-)
  2. Noah Oppenheim, Jackie (-)
  3. Barry Jenkins and Tarell McCraney, Moonlight (+1)
  4. Jeff Nichols, Loving (-1)
  5. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (-)
    ---
  6. Warren Beatty, Rules Don't Apply (+3)
  7. Mike Mills, 20th Century Women (-1)
  8. Jared Bush, Byron Howard, Phil Johnston, Jennifer Lee, Rich Moore, Jim Reardon and Josie Trinidad, Zootopia (-1)
  9. Ron Clements and John Musker, Moana (-1)
  10. Asghar Farhadi, The Salesman (-)

Best Adapted Screenplay

  1. August Wilson, Fences (-)
  2. Eric Heisserer, Arrival (+5)
  3. Jay Cocks, Silence (-)
  4. Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals (-)
  5. Allison Schroeder, Hidden Figures (-)
    ---
  6. Luke Davies, Lion (-)
  7. Ben Affleck, Live by Night (+1)
  8. Whit Stillman, Love & Friendship (+1)
  9. David Birke, Elle (+1)
  10. Todd Komarnicki, Sully (NEW)

DROPPED
Jean-Christophe Castelli, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (-9)

Best Animated Feature

  1. Zootopia (-)
  2. Moana (-)
  3. Sing (-)
  4. The Red Turtle (-)
  5. Finding Dory (-)
    ---
  6. Kubo and the Two Strings (-)
  7. April and the Extraordinary World (-)
  8. Miss Hokusai (-)
  9. Sausage Party (-)
  10. The Secret Life of Pets (-)

Best Cinematography

  1. Linus Sandgren, La La Land (-)
  2. Bradford Young, Arrival (+1)
  3. Stephanie Fontaine, Jackie (+1)
  4. Rodrigo Prieto, Silence (+1)
  5. Seamus McGarvey, Nocturnal Animals (+1)
    ---
  6. Bill Pope, The Jungle Book (+1)
  7. Robert Richardson, Live by Night (+1)
  8. James Laxton, Moonlight (+1)
  9. Caleb Deschanel, Rules Don't Apply (NEW)
  10. Charlotte Bruus Christiansen, Fences (-)

DROPPED
John Toll, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (-9)

Best Costume Design

  1. Mary Zophres, La La Land (-)
  2. Madeline Fontaine, Jackie (-)
  3. Sandy Powell, Silence (-)
  4. Albert Wolsky, Rules Don't Apply (-)
  5. Eimer Ni Mhaoldomhnaigh, Love & Friendship (-)
    ---
  6. Consolata Boyle, Florence Foster Jenkins (-)
  7. Colleen Atwood, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (+2)
  8. Sharen Davis, Fences (-)
  9. Jacqueline West, Live by Night (+1)
  10. Joanna Johnston, Allied (-3)

Best Film Editing

  1. Tom Cross, La La Land (-)
  2. Thelma Schoonmaker, Silence (+1)
  3. Joe Walker, Arrival (+3)
  4. Sebastián Sepúlveda, Jackie (-2)
  5. Joi McMillon and Nat Sanders, Moonlight (+3)
    ---
  6. Joan Sobel, Nocturnal Animals (+1)
  7. Jennifer Lame, Manchester by the Sea (+2)
  8. Hughes Winborne, Fences (-2)
  9. Blu Murray, Sully (NEW)
  10. Alexandre de Francheschi, Lion (NEW)

DROPPED
Tim Squyre, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (-7)
Jeremiah O’Driscoll, Allied (-1)

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

  1. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (-)
  2. Florence Foster Jenkins (-)
  3. Rules Don't Apply (-)
    ---
  4. Jackie (+1)
  5. Hail, Caesar! (+1)
  6. Silence (NEW)
  7. Love & Friendship (-3)
  8. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (-1)
  9. Star Trek: Beyond (+1)
  10. Live by Night (-2)

DROPPED
Hidden Figures (-2)

Best Original Score

  1. Johann Johansson, Arrival (+1)
  2. Howard Shore, Silence (+1)
  3. Mica Levi, Jackie (+1)
  4. Opetaia Foa’i, Mark Mancina and Lin-Manuel Miranda, Moana (-3)
  5. Michael Giacchino, Zootopia (+1)
    ---
  6. Justin Hurwitz, La La Land (+1)
  7. Michael Giacchino, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (+1)
  8. Alexandre Desplat, Florence Foster Jenkins (+2)
  9. John Williams, The BFG (NEW)
  10. Thomas Newman, Finding Dory (-1)

DROPPED
Jeff and Mychael Danna, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (-6)

Best Original Song

  1. "City of Stars," La La Land (-)
  2. "Audition," La La Land (+1)
  3. "We Know the Way," Moana (-1)
  4. "How Far I'll Go," Moana (-)
  5. "Victory," Hidden Figures (-)
    ---
  6. "Go Now," Sing Street (-)
  7. "A Letter to the Free," 13th (-)
  8. "The Great Beyond, Sausage Party (-)
  9. "Can't Stop the Feeling," Trolls (-)
  10. "Rules Don't Apply," Rules Don't Apply (NEW)

DROPPED
"Dancing in the Shadows," Po (-1)

Best Production Design

  1. David Wasco, La La Land (-)
  2. Dante Ferretti, Silence (-)
  3. Jean Rabasse, Jackie (-)
  4. Jeannine Oppewall, Rules Don't Apply (-)
  5. Stuart Craig, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (-)
    ---
  6. Anna Rackard, Love & Friendship (+2)
  7. Jess Gonchor, Live by Night (+2)
  8. Patrice Vermette, Arrival (NEW)
  9. Gary Freeman, Allied (-3)
  10. David Gropman, Fences (-3)

DROPPED
Mark Friedberg, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (-2)

Best Sound Editing

  1. La La Land (-)
  2. Arrival (-)
  3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (-)
  4. Silence (+1)
  5. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (+2)
    ---
  6. Captain America: Civil War (+4)
  7. Passengers (+2)
  8. Sully (NEW)
  9. Hacksaw Ridge (NEW)
  10. Moana (-4)

DROPPED
Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (-7)
Allied (-3)

Best Sound Mixing

  1. La La Land (-)
  2. Arrival (-)
  3. Silence (+1)
  4. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (+2)
  5. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (+2)
    ---
  6. Moana (-1)
  7. Zootopia (+3)
  8. Sully (NEW)
  9. Captain America: Civil War (NEW)
  10. Passengers (-1)

DROPPED
Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (-8)
Allied (-3)

Best Visual Effects

  1. Arrival (-)
  2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (-)
  3. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (+2)
  4. Passengers (-1)
  5. The Jungle Book (+1)
    ---
  6. Captain America: Civil War (+1)
  7. Doctor Strange (NEW)
  8. Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (-3)
  9. A Monster Calls (-1)
  10. Star Trek: Beyond (-1)

DROPPED
Deadpool (-1)

Best Documentary Feature

  1. 13th (-)
  2. Gleason (-)
  3. Lo and Behold, Reveries of the Connected World (+7)
  4. Equal Means Equal (-)
  5. The Eagle Huntress (NEW)
    ---
  6. Fire at Sea (+1)
  7. Miss Sharon Jones (+1)
  8. By Sidney Lumet (+1)
  9. The Beatles: Eight Days a Week - The Touring Years (NEW)
  10. Newtown (-5)

DROPPED
The Seasons in Quincy: Four Portraits of John Berger (-8)
Three Days of Terror: The Charlie Hebdo Attacks (-5)

Best Foreign Language Film

  1. The Salesman (Iran) (-)
  2. Toni Erdmann (Germany) (NEW)
  3. Death in Sarajevo (Bosnia and Herzegovina) (-1)
  4. Elle (France) (-1)
  5. Sand Storm (Israel) (-1)
    ---
  6. Ma'Rosa (Phillippines) (-1)
  7. Julieta (Spain) (-1)
  8. From Afar (Venezuela) (-1)
  9. The Happiest Day in the Life of Olli Mäki (Finland) (-1)
  10. Barakah Meets Barakah (Saudi Arabia) (-1)

DROPPED
Train Driver's Diary (Serbia) (-1)

November 04, 2016 /Andrew Carden
Oscars, Oscars 2016
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