2016 Oscar Nomination Predictions (October)
Over the past month, since my last/first set of Oscar predictions, the following events have gone down in this dizzying roller coaster of an awards season:
- Trailers for three Oscar contenders, all playing in the category of Best Lead Actress - Fences, Jackie and 20th Century Women - were (at last!) released.
- Two pictures - Martin Scorsese's Silence and Ben Affleck's Live By Night - were given late December release dates, making them eligible for Oscar consideration this year.
- Nate Parker's polarizing The Birth of a Nation, made all the more controversial on the heels of coverage surrounding Parker's past college rape trial, landed with a whimper at the box office, debuting in sixth place with about $7 million in domestic receipts. Fox Searchlight acquired the picture for more than $17 million.
- The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences announced 85 countries have officially submitted films for consideration in Best Foreign Language Film.
- In category placement news, Warren Beatty will be campaigned in Lead Actor for his upcoming Rules Don't Apply. To date, most had presumed, given the ensemble-y nature of the picture, Beatty would opt for a Supporting campaign.
Odds are, I'm overlooking something of significance - and no, I do not consider Patriots Day, which had its teaser recently drop, an Oscar contender at this point - but those are a few biggies for sure.
Please see below my latest Oscar predictions, for the month of October. In parentheses you will find how many slots a contender has moved up or down since my September rankings. In some cases, I have dropped a film or performer entirely.
Enjoy and, as always, feel free to comment with your own thoughts as well!
Best Picture
- La La Land (-)
- Jackie (+3)
- Manchester by the Sea (-1)
- Fences (-1)
- Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (-1)
- Arrival (+2)
- Silence (-)
- Loving (-2)
- Hidden Figures (-)
--- - Moonlight (+5)
- Lion (-)
- 20th Century Women (NEW)
- Nocturnal Animals (-1)
- Allied (-4)
- Rules Don't Apply (-2)
DROPPED
The Birth of a Nation (-2)
Best Director
- Damien Chazelle, La La Land (-)
- Denis Villanueve, Arrival (+3)
- Ang Lee, Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (-1)
- Martin Scorsese, Silence (-)
- Denzel Washington, Fences (-2)
--- - Pablo Larrain, Jackie (+4)
- Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (-1)
- Jeff Nichols, Loving (-1)
- Warren Beatty, Rules Don't Apply (-)
- Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (NEW)
DROPPED
Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals (-2)
Best Lead Actor
- Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (-)
- Denzel Washington, Fences (-)
- Ryan Gosling, La La Land (-)
- Joel Edgerton, Loving (-)
- Joe Alwyn, Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (-)
--- - Andrew Garfield, Silence (+3)
- Tom Hanks, Sully (-1)
- Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals (-1)
- Michael Keaton, The Founder (-1)
- Dev Patel, Lion (-)
Best Lead Actress
- Emma Stone, La La Land (-)
- Natalie Portman, Jackie (-)
- Viola Davis, Fences (-)
- Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (+4)
- Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (-1)
--- - Ruth Negga, Loving (-1)
- Amy Adams, Arrival (-1)
- Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (-1)
- Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (-)
- Isabelle Huppert, Elle (-)
Best Supporting Actor
- Liam Neeson, Silence (+4)
- Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (-1)
- Peter Sarsgaard, Jackie (+4)
- Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (-2)
- Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (-1)
--- - Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (-)
- Adam Driver, Silence (NEW)
- Steve Martin, Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (-)
- Stephen Henderson, Fences (-)
- Mykelti Williamson, Fences (-)
DROPPED
Warren Beatty, Rules Don't Apply (-8)
Best Supporting Actress
- Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (-)
- Naomie Harris, Moonlight (-)
- Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (+6)
- Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (-1)
- Nicole Kidman, Lion (-1)
--- - Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (-1)
- Lupita Nyong'o, Queen of Katwe (NEW)
- Annette Bening, Rules Don't Apply (-)
- Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls (-2)
- Molly Shannon, Other People (NEW)
DROPPED
Elle Fanning, 20th Century Women (-2)
Laura Linney, Nocturnal Animals (-1)
Best Original Screenplay
- Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (-)
- Noah Oppenheim, Jackie (+2)
- Jeff Nichols, Loving (-1)
- Barry Jenkins and Tarell McCraney, Moonlight (+3)
- Damien Chazelle, La La Land (-2)
--- - Mike Mills, 20th Century Women (NEW)
- Jared Bush, Byron Howard, Phil Johnston, Jennifer Lee, Rich Moore, Jim Reardon and Josie Trinidad, Zootopia (-2)
- Ron Clements and John Musker, Moana (-2)
- Warren Beatty, Rules Don't Apply (-1)
- Asghar Farhadi, The Salesman (-)
DROPPED
Steven Knight, Allied (-2)
Best Adapted Screenplay
- August Wilson, Fences (-)
- Jean-Christophe Castelli, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (-)
- Jay Cocks, Silence (-)
- Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals (-)
- Allison Schroeder, Hidden Figures (-)
--- - Luke Davies, Lion (-)
- Eric Heisserer, Arrival (-)
- Ben Affleck, Live by Night (NEW)
- Whit Stillman, Love & Friendship (-1)
- David Birke, Elle (-1)
DROPPED
Justin Marks, The Jungle Book (-1)
Best Animated Feature
- Zootopia (-)
- Moana (-)
- Sing (-)
- The Red Turtle (-)
- Finding Dory (-)
--- - Kubo and the Two Strings (-)
- April and the Extraordinary World (+2)
- Miss Hokusai (+2)
- Sausage Party (-2)
- The Secret Life of Pets (-2)
Best Cinematography
- Linus Sandgren, La La Land (-)
- John Toll, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (-)
- Bradford Young, Arrival (-)
- Stephanie Fontaine, Jackie (NEW)
- Rodrigo Prieto, Silence (-1)
--- - Seamus McGarvey, Nocturnal Animals (-1)
- Bill Pope, The Jungle Book (-1)
- Robert Richardson, Live by Night (NEW)
- James Laxton, Moonlight (NEW)
- Charlotte Bruus Christiansen, Fences (-3)
DROPPED
Elliot Davis, The Birth of a Nation (-3)
Greig Fraser, Lion (-2)
Don Burgess, Allied (-1)
Best Costume Design
- Mary Zophres, La La Land (-)
- Madeline Fontaine, Jackie (+5)
- Sandy Powell, Silence (+4)
- Albert Wolsky, Rules Don't Apply (-1)
- Eimer Ni Mhaoldomhnaigh, Love & Friendship (-1)
--- - Consolata Boyle, Florence Foster Jenkins (-1)
- Joanna Johnston, Allied (-5)
- Sharen Davis, Fences (-1)
- Colleen Atwood, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (+1)
- Jacqueline West, Live by Night (NEW)
DROPPED
Francine Jamison-Tanchuck, The Birth of a Nation (-2)
Best Film Editing
- Tom Cross, La La Land (-)
- Sebastián Sepúlveda, Jackie (NEW)
- Thelma Schoonmaker, Silence (-1)
- Tim Squyre, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (-1)
- Joe Walker, Arrival (-1)
--- - Hughes Winborne, Fences (-1)
- Joan Sobel, Nocturnal Animals (-1)
- Joi McMillon and Nat Sanders, Moonlight (+1)
- Jennifer Lame, Manchester by the Sea (-2)
- Jeremiah O’Driscoll, Allied (-)
DROPPED
Steven Rosenblum, The Birth of a Nation (-3)
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
- Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (+2)
- Florence Foster Jenkins (-1)
- Rules Don't Apply (-1)
--- - Love & Friendship (-)
- Jackie (+3)
- Hail, Caesar! (+3)
- Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (+3)
- Live by Night (NEW)
- Hidden Figures (-4)
- Star Trek: Beyond (-3)
DROPPED
La La Land (-5)
Best Original Score
- Opetaia Foa’i, Mark Mancina and Lin-Manuel Miranda, Moana (-)
- Johann Johansson, Arrival (+2)
- Howard Shore, Silence (+3)
- Mica Levi, Jackie (+3)
- Jeff and Mychael Danna, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (-1)
--- - Michael Giacchino, Zootopia (-4)
- Justin Hurwitz, La La Land (-2)
- Michael Giacchino, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (NEW)
- Thomas Newman, Finding Dory (-1)
- Alexandre Desplat, Florence Foster Jenkins (-1)
DROPPED
Henry Jackman, The Birth of a Nation (-1)
Best Original Song
- "City of Stars," La La Land (-)
- "We Know the Way," Moana (-)
- "Audition," La La Land (-)
- "How Far I'll Go," Moana (-)
- "Victory," Hidden Figures (+1)
--- - "Go Now," Sing Street (-1)
- "A Letter to the Free," 13th (NEW)
- "The Great Beyond, Sausage Party (-1)
- "Can't Stop the Feeling," Trolls (-1)
- "Dancing in the Shadows," Po (NEW)
DROPPED
"Try Everything," Zootopia (-2)
"Drive It Like You Stole It," Sing Street (-1)
Best Production Design
- David Wasco, La La Land (-)
- Dante Ferretti, Silence (+1)
- Jean Rabasse, Jackie (+6)
- Jeannine Oppewall, Rules Don't Apply (-2)
- Stuart Craig, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (+1)
--- - Gary Freeman, Allied (-2)
- David Gropman, Fences (-2)
- Anna Rackard, Love & Friendship (-1)
- Mark Friedberg, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (+1)
- Jess Gonchor, Live by Night (NEW)
DROPPED
Geoffrey Kirkland, The Birth of a Nation (-3)
Best Sound Editing
- La La Land (-)
- Arrival (-)
- Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (+1)
- Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (-1)
- Silence (-)
--- - Moana (-)
- Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (NEW)
- Allied (-1)
- Passengers (-1)
- Captain America: Civil War (-)
DROPPED
Deepwater Horizon (-2)
Best Sound Mixing
- La La Land (-)
- Arrival (-)
- Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (-)
- Silence (-)
- Moana (-)
--- - Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (+1)
- Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (NEW)
- Allied (-2)
- Passengers (-1)
- Zootopia (-1)
DROPPED
Deepwater Horizon (-1)
Best Visual Effects
- Arrival (-)
- Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (-)
- Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (+2)
- Passengers (-1)
- Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (-1)
--- - The Jungle Book (-)
- Captain America: Civil War (-)
- A Monster Calls (-)
- Star Trek: Beyond (-)
- Deadpool (-)
Best Documentary Feature
- 13th (-)
- Gleason (-)
- The Seasons in Quincy: Four Portraits of John Berger (-)
- Equal Means Equal (-)
- Newtown (-)
--- - Three Days of Terror: The Charlie Hebdo Attacks (-)
- Fire at Sea (-)
- Miss Sharon Jones (-)
- By Sidney Lumet (-)
- Lo and Behold, Reveries of the Connected World (-)
Best Foreign Language Film
- The Salesman (Iran) (-)
- Death in Sarajevo (Bosnia and Herzegovina) (-)
- Elle (France) (-)
- Sand Storm (Israel) (-)
- Ma'Rosa (Phillippines) (-)
--- - Julieta (Spain) (+1)
- From Afar (Venezuela) (+1)
- The Happiest Day in the Life of Olli Mäki (Finland) (+1)
- Barakah Meets Barakah (Saudi Arabia) (+1)
- Train Driver's Diary (Serbia) (NEW)
DROPPED
United States of Love (Poland) (-5)