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2016 Oscar Nomination Predictions (October)

October 14, 2016 by Andrew Carden in Oscars

Over the past month, since my last/first set of Oscar predictions, the following events have gone down in this dizzying roller coaster of an awards season:

  • Trailers for three Oscar contenders, all playing in the category of Best Lead Actress - Fences, Jackie and 20th Century Women - were (at last!) released.
     
  • Two pictures - Martin Scorsese's Silence and Ben Affleck's Live By Night - were given late December release dates, making them eligible for Oscar consideration this year.
     
  • Nate Parker's polarizing The Birth of a Nation, made all the more controversial on the heels of coverage surrounding Parker's past college rape trial, landed with a whimper at the box office, debuting in sixth place with about $7 million in domestic receipts. Fox Searchlight acquired the picture for more than $17 million.
     
  • The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences announced 85 countries have officially submitted films for consideration in Best Foreign Language Film.
     
  • In category placement news, Warren Beatty will be campaigned in Lead Actor for his upcoming Rules Don't Apply. To date, most had presumed, given the ensemble-y nature of the picture, Beatty would opt for a Supporting campaign.

Odds are, I'm overlooking something of significance - and no, I do not consider Patriots Day, which had its teaser recently drop, an Oscar contender at this point - but those are a few biggies for sure.

Please see below my latest Oscar predictions, for the month of October. In parentheses you will find how many slots a contender has moved up or down since my September rankings. In some cases, I have dropped a film or performer entirely.

Enjoy and, as always, feel free to comment with your own thoughts as well!

Best Picture

  1. La La Land (-)
  2. Jackie (+3)
  3. Manchester by the Sea (-1)
  4. Fences (-1)
  5. Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (-1)
  6. Arrival (+2)
  7. Silence (-)
  8. Loving (-2)
  9. Hidden Figures (-)
    ---
  10. Moonlight (+5)
  11. Lion (-)
  12. 20th Century Women (NEW)
  13. Nocturnal Animals (-1)
  14. Allied (-4)
  15. Rules Don't Apply (-2)

DROPPED
The Birth of a Nation (-2)

Best Director

  1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (-)
  2. Denis Villanueve, Arrival (+3)
  3. Ang Lee, Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (-1)
  4. Martin Scorsese, Silence (-)
  5. Denzel Washington, Fences (-2)
    ---
  6. Pablo Larrain, Jackie (+4)
  7. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (-1)
  8. Jeff Nichols, Loving (-1)
  9. Warren Beatty, Rules Don't Apply (-)
  10. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (NEW)

DROPPED
Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals (-2)

Best Lead Actor

  1. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (-)
  2. Denzel Washington, Fences (-)
  3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (-)
  4. Joel Edgerton, Loving (-)
  5. Joe Alwyn, Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (-)
    ---
  6. Andrew Garfield, Silence (+3)
  7. Tom Hanks, Sully (-1)
  8. Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals (-1)
  9. Michael Keaton, The Founder (-1)
  10. Dev Patel, Lion (-)

Best Lead Actress

  1. Emma Stone, La La Land (-)
  2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (-)
  3. Viola Davis, Fences (-)
  4. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (+4)
  5. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (-1)
    ---
  6. Ruth Negga, Loving (-1)
  7. Amy Adams, Arrival (-1)
  8. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (-1)
  9. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (-)
  10. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (-)

Best Supporting Actor

  1. Liam Neeson, Silence (+4)
  2. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (-1)
  3. Peter Sarsgaard, Jackie (+4)
  4. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (-2)
  5. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (-1)
    ---
  6. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (-)
  7. Adam Driver, Silence (NEW)
  8. Steve Martin, Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (-)
  9. Stephen Henderson, Fences (-)
  10. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (-)

DROPPED
Warren Beatty, Rules Don't Apply (-8)

Best Supporting Actress

  1. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (-)
  2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (-)
  3. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (+6)
  4. Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (-1)
  5. Nicole Kidman, Lion (-1)
    ---
  6. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (-1)
  7. Lupita Nyong'o, Queen of Katwe (NEW)
  8. Annette Bening, Rules Don't Apply (-)
  9. Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls (-2)
  10. Molly Shannon, Other People (NEW)

DROPPED
Elle Fanning, 20th Century Women (-2)
Laura Linney, Nocturnal Animals (-1)

Best Original Screenplay

  1. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (-)
  2. Noah Oppenheim, Jackie (+2)
  3. Jeff Nichols, Loving (-1)
  4. Barry Jenkins and Tarell McCraney, Moonlight (+3)
  5. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (-2)
    ---
  6. Mike Mills, 20th Century Women (NEW)
  7. Jared Bush, Byron Howard, Phil Johnston, Jennifer Lee, Rich Moore, Jim Reardon and Josie Trinidad, Zootopia (-2)
  8. Ron Clements and John Musker, Moana (-2)
  9. Warren Beatty, Rules Don't Apply (-1)
  10. Asghar Farhadi, The Salesman (-)

DROPPED
Steven Knight, Allied (-2)

Best Adapted Screenplay

  1. August Wilson, Fences (-)
  2. Jean-Christophe Castelli, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (-)
  3. Jay Cocks, Silence (-)
  4. Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals (-)
  5. Allison Schroeder, Hidden Figures (-)
    ---
  6. Luke Davies, Lion (-)
  7. Eric Heisserer, Arrival (-)
  8. Ben Affleck, Live by Night (NEW)
  9. Whit Stillman, Love & Friendship (-1)
  10. David Birke, Elle (-1)

DROPPED
Justin Marks, The Jungle Book (-1)

Best Animated Feature

  1. Zootopia (-)
  2. Moana (-)
  3. Sing (-)
  4. The Red Turtle (-)
  5. Finding Dory (-)
    ---
  6. Kubo and the Two Strings (-)
  7. April and the Extraordinary World (+2)
  8. Miss Hokusai (+2)
  9. Sausage Party (-2)
  10. The Secret Life of Pets (-2)

Best Cinematography

  1. Linus Sandgren, La La Land (-)
  2. John Toll, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (-)
  3. Bradford Young, Arrival (-)
  4. Stephanie Fontaine, Jackie (NEW)
  5. Rodrigo Prieto, Silence (-1)
    ---
  6. Seamus McGarvey, Nocturnal Animals (-1)
  7. Bill Pope, The Jungle Book (-1)
  8. Robert Richardson, Live by Night (NEW)
  9. James Laxton, Moonlight (NEW)
  10. Charlotte Bruus Christiansen, Fences (-3)

DROPPED
Elliot Davis, The Birth of a Nation (-3)
Greig Fraser, Lion (-2)
Don Burgess, Allied (-1)

Best Costume Design

  1. Mary Zophres, La La Land (-)
  2. Madeline Fontaine, Jackie (+5)
  3. Sandy Powell, Silence (+4)
  4. Albert Wolsky, Rules Don't Apply (-1)
  5. Eimer Ni Mhaoldomhnaigh, Love & Friendship (-1)
    ---
  6. Consolata Boyle, Florence Foster Jenkins (-1)
  7. Joanna Johnston, Allied (-5)
  8. Sharen Davis, Fences (-1)
  9. Colleen Atwood, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (+1)
  10. Jacqueline West, Live by Night (NEW)

DROPPED
Francine Jamison-Tanchuck, The Birth of a Nation (-2)

Best Film Editing

  1. Tom Cross, La La Land (-)
  2. Sebastián Sepúlveda, Jackie (NEW)
  3. Thelma Schoonmaker, Silence (-1)
  4. Tim Squyre, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (-1)
  5. Joe Walker, Arrival (-1)
    ---
  6. Hughes Winborne, Fences (-1)
  7. Joan Sobel, Nocturnal Animals (-1)
  8. Joi McMillon and Nat Sanders, Moonlight (+1)
  9. Jennifer Lame, Manchester by the Sea (-2)
  10. Jeremiah O’Driscoll, Allied (-)

DROPPED
Steven Rosenblum, The Birth of a Nation (-3)

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

  1. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (+2)
  2. Florence Foster Jenkins (-1)
  3. Rules Don't Apply (-1)
    ---
  4. Love & Friendship (-)
  5. Jackie (+3)
  6. Hail, Caesar! (+3)
  7. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (+3)
  8. Live by Night (NEW)
  9. Hidden Figures (-4)
  10. Star Trek: Beyond (-3)

DROPPED
La La Land (-5)

Best Original Score

  1. Opetaia Foa’i, Mark Mancina and Lin-Manuel Miranda, Moana (-)
  2. Johann Johansson, Arrival (+2)
  3. Howard Shore, Silence (+3)
  4. Mica Levi, Jackie (+3)
  5. Jeff and Mychael Danna, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (-1)
    ---
  6. Michael Giacchino, Zootopia (-4)
  7. Justin Hurwitz, La La Land (-2)
  8. Michael Giacchino, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (NEW)
  9. Thomas Newman, Finding Dory (-1)
  10. Alexandre Desplat, Florence Foster Jenkins (-1)

DROPPED
Henry Jackman, The Birth of a Nation (-1)

Best Original Song

  1. "City of Stars," La La Land (-)
  2. "We Know the Way," Moana (-)
  3. "Audition," La La Land (-)
  4. "How Far I'll Go," Moana (-)
  5. "Victory," Hidden Figures (+1)
    ---
  6. "Go Now," Sing Street (-1)
  7. "A Letter to the Free," 13th (NEW)
  8. "The Great Beyond, Sausage Party (-1)
  9. "Can't Stop the Feeling," Trolls (-1)
  10. "Dancing in the Shadows," Po (NEW)

DROPPED
"Try Everything," Zootopia (-2)
"Drive It Like You Stole It," Sing Street (-1)

Best Production Design

  1. David Wasco, La La Land (-)
  2. Dante Ferretti, Silence (+1)
  3. Jean Rabasse, Jackie (+6)
  4. Jeannine Oppewall, Rules Don't Apply (-2)
  5. Stuart Craig, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (+1)
    ---
  6. Gary Freeman, Allied (-2)
  7. David Gropman, Fences (-2)
  8. Anna Rackard, Love & Friendship (-1)
  9. Mark Friedberg, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (+1)
  10. Jess Gonchor, Live by Night (NEW)

DROPPED
Geoffrey Kirkland, The Birth of a Nation (-3)

Best Sound Editing

  1. La La Land (-)
  2. Arrival (-)
  3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (+1)
  4. Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (-1)
  5. Silence (-)
    ---
  6. Moana (-)
  7. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (NEW)
  8. Allied (-1)
  9. Passengers (-1)
  10. Captain America: Civil War (-)

DROPPED
Deepwater Horizon (-2)

Best Sound Mixing

  1. La La Land (-)
  2. Arrival (-)
  3. Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (-)
  4. Silence (-)
  5. Moana (-)
    ---
  6. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (+1)
  7. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (NEW)
  8. Allied (-2)
  9. Passengers (-1)
  10. Zootopia (-1)

DROPPED
Deepwater Horizon (-1)

Best Visual Effects

  1. Arrival (-)
  2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (-)
  3. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (+2)
  4. Passengers (-1)
  5. Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (-1)
    ---
  6. The Jungle Book (-)
  7. Captain America: Civil War (-)
  8. A Monster Calls (-)
  9. Star Trek: Beyond (-)
  10. Deadpool (-)

Best Documentary Feature

  1. 13th (-)
  2. Gleason (-)
  3. The Seasons in Quincy: Four Portraits of John Berger (-)
  4. Equal Means Equal (-)
  5. Newtown (-)
    ---
  6. Three Days of Terror: The Charlie Hebdo Attacks (-)
  7. Fire at Sea (-)
  8. Miss Sharon Jones (-)
  9. By Sidney Lumet (-)
  10. Lo and Behold, Reveries of the Connected World (-)

Best Foreign Language Film

  1. The Salesman (Iran) (-)
  2. Death in Sarajevo (Bosnia and Herzegovina) (-)
  3. Elle (France) (-)
  4. Sand Storm (Israel) (-)
  5. Ma'Rosa (Phillippines) (-)
    ---
  6. Julieta (Spain) (+1)
  7. From Afar (Venezuela) (+1)
  8. The Happiest Day in the Life of Olli Mäki (Finland) (+1)
  9. Barakah Meets Barakah (Saudi Arabia) (+1)
  10. Train Driver's Diary (Serbia) (NEW)

DROPPED
United States of Love (Poland) (-5)

October 14, 2016 /Andrew Carden
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