2016 Golden Globe nominations predictions

The Golden Globes are hardly my favorite precursor of the Oscar season. The Hollywood Foreign Press Association is, after all, kind of a joke, its elusive members notorious for handing out awards and nominations in exchange for Rolex watches (which is precisely how Sharon Stone was stunningly recognized in Best Musical/Comedy Actress for Albert Brooks' flop The Muse) and other glitzy gifts. The now-defunct television network Trio once ran an incredible documentary, The Golden Globes: Hollywood's Dirty Little Secret, that exposed the HFPA's shady practices. It should be a must-see for awards buffs - the problem, of course, is the program became all but impossible to track down after Trio's departure, an exit that happened before the days of YouTube.

That being said, I do still get a modest kick out of the Globes and enjoy predicting them. Putting these together, I'm particularly tickled that I can list the likes of Rebecca Hall, Sally Field and Susan Sarandon - performances exceedingly unlikely to grace my Oscar predictions.

Note that I've received some contradictory information as to category placements for a couple of films. Only one, however, shows up in my predictions, which I've noted below.

So, with that said, here are my 2016 Golden Globe nomination predictions, ranked from most to least likely to be nominated. Of course feel free to chime in and offer up your own thoughts too!

Best Motion Picture - Drama

1. Manchester By the Sea
2. Moonlight
3. Silence
4. Lion
5. Loving
   ---
6. Arrival
7. Sully
8. Jackie
9. Fences
10. Hacksaw Ridge

Best Motion Picture - Comedy/Musical

1. La La Land
2. Florence Foster Jenkins
3. 20th Century Women
4. Hail, Caesar!
5. Sing Street
   ---
6. Love and Friendship
7. American Honey
8. The Lobster
9. Rules Don't Apply
10. Cafe Society

Best Lead Actor - Drama

1. Casey Affleck, Manchester By the Sea
2. Denzel Washington, Fences
3. Tom Hanks, Sully
4. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
5. Joel Edgerton, Loving
   ---
6. Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals
7. Chris Pine, Hell or High Water
8. Michael Keaton, The Founder
9. Mark Wahlberg, Patriots Day
10. Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Snowden

Best Lead Actress - Drama

1. Natalie Portman, Jackie
2. Amy Adams, Arrival
3. Ruth Negga, Loving
4. Isabelle Huppert, Elle
5. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane
   ---
6. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures
7. Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train
8. Rachel Weisz, Denial
9. Rebecca Hall, Christine
10. Jennifer Lawrence, Passengers

Best Lead Actor - Comedy/Musical

1. Ryan Gosling, La La Land
2. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
3. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (if Drama, move to #8 in that line-up)
4. Colin Farrell, The Lobster
5. Warren Beatty, Rules Don't Apply
   ---
6. Don Cheadle, Miles Ahead
7. Ryan Reynolds, Deadpool
8. George Clooney, Hail, Caesar!
9. Adam Driver, Paterson
10. Russell Crowe, The Nice Guys

Best Lead Actress - Comedy/Musical

1. Emma Stone, La La Land
2. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women
3. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
4. Kate Beckinsale, Love and Friendship
5. Kristen Stewart, Cafe Society
   ---
6. Renee Zellweger, Bridget Jones's Baby
7. Hailee Steinfeld, The Edge of Seventeen
8. Sally Field, Hello, My Name Is Doris
9. Sasha Lane, American Honey
10. Susan Sarandon, The Meddler

Best Supporting Actor

1. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
2. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
3. Dev Patel, Lion
4. Lucas Hedges, Manchester By the Sea
5. Ben Foster, Hell or High Water
   ---
6. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals
7. Issei Ogata, Silence
8. Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures
9. Adam Driver, Silence
10. Peter Sarsgaard, Jackie

Best Supporting Actress

1. Michelle Williams, Manchester By the Sea
2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight
3. Viola Davis, Fences
4. Nicole Kidman, Lion
5. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women
   ---
6. Rachel Weisz, The Light Between Oceans
7. Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky
8. Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures
9. Lupita Nyong'o, Queen of Katwe
10. Lily Gladstone, Certain Women

Best Director

1. Damian Chazelle, La La Land
2. Martin Scorsese, Silence
3. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester By the Sea
4. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
5. Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
   ---
6. Denzel Washington, Fences
7. Clint Eastwood, Sully
8. Denis Villenueve, Arrival
9. Pablo Larrain, Jackie
10. Jeff Nichols, Loving

Best Screenplay

1. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester By the Sea
2. Barry Jenkins and Tarell McCraney, Moonlight
3. Jay Cocks, Silence
4. August Wilson, Fences
5. Jeff Nichols, Loving
   ---
6. Luke Davies, Lion
7. Damian Chazelle, La La Land
8. Joel and Ethan Coen, Hail, Caesar!
9. Taylor Sheridan, Hell or High Water
10. Todd Komarnicki, Sully

Best Original Score

1. Johann Johansson, Arrival
2. Dustin O’Halloran and Hauschka, Lion
3. Alexandre Desplat, Florence Foster Jenkins
4. Justin Hurwitz, La La Land
5. John Williams, The BFG
   ---
6. Mica Levi, Jackie
7. Abel Korzeniowski, Nocturnal Animals
8. Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, Patriots Day
9. Kim Allen Kluge and Kathryn Kluge, Silence
10. Carter Burwell, Hail, Caesar!

Best Original Song

1. "Audition (The Fools Who Dream)," La La Land
2. "We Know the Way," Moana
3. "Can't Stop the Feeling," Trolls
4. "Drive It Like You Stole It," Sing Street
5. “Suis-moi," The Little Prince
   ---
6. "The Rules Don't Apply," Rules Don't Apply
7. "The Great Beyond," Sausage Party
8. "City of Stars," La La Land
9. "I See Victory," Hidden Figures
10. "How Far I'll Go," Moana

Best Animated Film

1. Moana
2. Zootopia
3. Kubo and the Two Strings
4. Finding Dory
5. The Red Turtle
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6. The Little Prince
7. April and the Extraordinary World
8. Miss Hokusai
9. Sing
10. My Life as a Zucchini

Best Foreign Language Film

1. Toni Erdmann
2. The Salesman
3. Neruda
4. Elle
5. Fire at Sea
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6. Ma'Rosa
7. The Happiest Day in the Life of Olli Maki
8. Julieta
9. Death in Sarajevo
10. Barakah Meets Barakah