2020 Golden Globe Winner Predictions
Ah, the Golden Globes. How I love that Hollywood Foreign Press Association - not corrupt at all!
All kidding aside (how can I not love the HFPA when it named Sally Kirkland Best Actress in 1987?), I am pumped for this year’s ceremony, in part because the awards season remains so unsettled. There isn’t a true shoo-in to be found among the acting races here, with only Best Animated Feature and Best Foreign Language Film sporting anything in the way of overwhelming favorites.
That said, my gut says Aaron Sorkin - a nine-time Globe nominee at this point - will see his film, The Trial of the Chicago 7, make the healthiest splash of the night. Mank, the nominations leader, is close behind - and I expect David Fincher to grab the Best Director prize - with Nomadland and perhaps even Promising Young Woman, both Director/Screenplay contenders, having at least some fighting chance up in Best Drama Picture.
Oddly enough, I fear Nomadland is liable to find itself shut out here. Frances McDormand could of course triumph but she isn’t exactly a HFPA favorite, having lost for both Fargo and Olive Kittredge. Given the overall affection for Promising Young Woman, I’m going with Carey Mulligan for the Best Drama Actress win. Likewise, considering the Drama Picture nomination for The Father and lukewarm reception for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, I’ve got Anthony Hopkins taking the Best Drama Actor prize over Chadwick Boseman - though expect the latter to still triumph at the Oscars (after a SAG win)
The Musical/Comedy categories are an absolute wasteland this year (hi, Music) but might be more competitive and exciting than you’d think. Most seem convinced a Borat sweep is on the horizon and, while I’m inclined to agree both Maria Bakalova and Sacha Baron Cohen will emerge triumphant in their respective categories, I suspect a Hamilton upset may come to fruition for the top prize. Hell, even Lin-Manuel Miranda may block Cohen from scoring two trophies. Oh, and I still don’t think Bakalova makes the Oscar cut, even if it’s tough to picture her losing here.
The Supporting categories are also tough to forecast.
Sans Helena Zengel, a newcomer whose film wasn’t otherwise much embraced, I can see a case for any of the Best Supporting Actress nominees winning. Jodie Foster is a HFPA favorite whose film scored a surprise Drama Actor nom; Glenn Close remains spectacularly overdue for that Oscar and the Globes played a key role in bolstering her campaign for The Wife; and Amanda Seyfried graces the night’s nominations leader and sure seemed like the favorite here and elsewhere until that startling SAG snub.
In the end, given the love for The Father and her flawless track record with the Globes (thus far, at least), my money has to be on Olivia Colman - but she’s a soft front-runner.
Likewise, I see Cohen as a very modest favorite in Best Supporting Actor, likely to only triumph if his film is taking the top prize. I fear it may not be Daniel Kaluuya or Leslie Odom, Jr., whose films missed in Drama Picture, who is Cohen’s greatest threat but rather surprise nominee Jared Leto, who inexplicably also surfaced at SAG and whose film (also inexplicably) has made several of the Oscar shortlists. Don’t be blindsided if he pulls this out.
Elsewhere, I do see Soul and Minari as the crystal-clear favorites in Animated Feature and Foreign Language Film. Expect Odom, Jr. to triumph in Best Original Song for his One Night in Miami tune, though Diane Warren cannot be entirely counted out for her The Life Ahead composition. Had Sophia Loren made the Drama Actress cut, I might be predicting her. Last but hardly least, Best Original Score looks like a jump ball between the two Trent Reznor-Atticus Ross contenders, with the trio of other nominees likely trailing far behind.
Below are my full rankings in each category. Who do you have winning?
Best Motion Picture - Drama
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Mank
Nomadland
Promising Young Woman
The Father
Best Motion Picture - Musical/Comedy
Hamilton
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
The Prom
Palm Springs
Music
Best Director
David Fincher, Mank
Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
Regina King, One Night in Miami
Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
Best Screenplay
Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Florian Zeller and Christopher Hampton, The Father
Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
Jack Fincher, Mank
Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
Best Actress - Drama
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Best Actor - Drama
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Gary Oldman, Mank
Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
Tahar Rahim, The Mauritanian
Best Actress - Musical/Comedy
Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit
Kate Hudson, Music
Anya Taylor-Joy, Emma
Rosamund Pike, I Care a Lot
Best Actor - Musical/Comedy
Sacha Baron Cohen, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Lin-Manuel Miranda, Hamilton
Andy Samberg, Palm Springs
James Corden, The Prom
Dev Patel, The Personal History of David Copperfield
Best Supporting Actress
Olivia Colman, The Father
Amanda Seyfried, Mank
Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian
Helena Zengel, News of the World
Best Supporting Actor
Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Jared Leto, The Little Things
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami
Bill Murray, On the Rocks
Best Animated Feature
Soul
Over the Moon
Wolfwalkers
Onward
The Croods: A New Age
Best Foreign Language Film
Minari
Another Round
The Life Ahead
La Llorona
Two of Us
Best Original Score
Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, Mank
Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross and Jon Batiste, Soul
Ludwig Goransson, Tenet
James Newton Howard, News of the World
Alexandre Desplat, The Midnight Sky
Best Original Song
“Speak Now,” One Night in Miami
“lo si (Seen),” The Life Ahead
“Hear My Voice,” The Trial of the Chicago 7
“Fight for You,” Judas and the Black Messiah
“Tigress & Tweed,” The United States vs. Billie Holiday