2022 SAG Awards Nomination Predictions
The SAG Awards are truly the awards season crème de la crème, often having the finest taste among precursors, with a penchant for throwing sorely needed curveballs to rattle the pre-Oscar landscape.
This is, after all, the same inspired body that preferred The Birdcage over The English Patient in Best Ensemble; honored the amazing likes of Stockard Channing in Smoke and Cloris Leachman in Spanglish when few others took notice; and provided crucial momentum to Parasite in its bid for awards season glory (ditto CODA last year).
Will SAG have more surprises in store this time around? Let’s dive into each category.
Best Motion Picture Ensemble
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Banshees of Inisherin
The Fabelmans
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
The Woman King
—Women Talking
Babylon
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Top Gun: Maverick
Elvis
The current Best Picture front-runners - Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Banshees of Inisherin, and The Fabelmans - should be reasonably safe here. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, with its sprawling, starry ensemble and rave reviews, also strikes me as a likely bet, though I hesitate a little, given the first Knives Out didn’t make the SAG cut. That final slot could go a bunch of different ways - and beyond these half-dozen contenders, All Quiet on the Western Front, RRR, and Triangle of Sadness can’t be counted out. I lean ever-so-slightly toward The Woman King over Women Talking and Babylon. Actors adore Viola Davis (see more below) and her ensembles tend to fare well here too, with The Help triumphing and Doubt, Fences, and Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom scoring nominations.
Best Female Actor in a Leading Role
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Cate Blanchett, TÁR
Viola Davis, The Woman King
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
Aubrey Plaza, Emily the Criminal
—Margot Robbie, Babylon
Danielle Deadwyler, Till
Ana de Armas, Blonde
Emma Thompson, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
Olivia Colman, Empire of Light
The Oscar favorites, Yeoh and Blanchett, are sure to score SAG noms - as is Davis, a six-time winner here (five individual wins, three in film and two TV, plus Ensemble for The Help). Williams may not be quite as safe (she did miss at SAG for Blue Valentine) but, odds are, she’s making the cut here too. Here’s another jump ball, however, for that fifth slot. The safest bet is to go with Robbie or Deadwyler but I’m inclined to lean toward a true jaw-dropper - Aubrey Plaza, who surfaced early on in the awards season with bids at the Gothams and Indie Spirits. Not to be overlooked, Emily the Criminal recently hit Netflix, just as SAG voters are taking to their ballots, and Plaza’s got some extra buzz (and another potential SAG nom) for her acclaimed turn on The White Lotus: Sicily. This may not come to fruition but, considering this is a body that’s given Best Actress noms to the long-shot likes of Sarah Silverman (I Smile Back), Hilary Swank (Conviction,) and Gena Rowlands (Unhook the Stars), it’s a plenty plausible appearance.
Best Male Actor in a Leading Role
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Austin Butler, Elvis
Bill Nighy, Living
Paul Mescal, Aftersun
—Jeremy Pope, The Inspection
Ralph Fiennes, The Menu
Adam Sandler, Hustle
Adam Driver, White Noise
Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick
Not to keep repeating myself but…watch that last slot. Farrell, Fraser, and Butler will cruise to nominations here, as should Nighy, whose film is backed by the awards season masters at Sony Pictures Classics. It’s challenging to forecast who joins them when the front-runners, Farrell and Fraser in particular, have so dominated the Best Actor conversation and precursors thus far. He may have missed at the Globes (though, frankly, who gives a shit) but Mescal has otherwise had a fairly healthy run, not winning much of note but often showing up as a critics’ award nominee, including with Critics’ Choice. And A24 is running a robust campaign for him, though they’re doing the same for Pope, who missed at Critics’ Choice but did land at the Globes. My hunch is the slot does ultimately go to one of the A24 gents, though Fiennes or Sandler could sneak in there as a surprise. I don’t see Cruise surfacing here, though an Oscar nom remains in the cards.
Best Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Janelle Monáe, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Carey Mulligan, She Said
—Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness
Keke Palmer, Nope
Jessie Buckley, Women Talking
Hong Chau, The Whale
Watch that fifth slot. And fourth. And third. Actually, just about anything could happen in this race, though Condon should be a safe bet. Bassett and/or Curtis may miss the Oscar cut but they’re true actor’s actors and have surfaced at SAG before (Bassett for Ruby’s Bucket of Blood & Betty and Coretta, Curtis for True Lies). Monáe has scored MVP notices (and a Critics’ Choice bid) for Glass Onion, a film very much in contention for Best Ensemble honors; Mulligan’s earned raves (and a Globe nom) for She Said, a contender that has somewhat dwindled in momentum but hardly disappeared; Hsu has a Critics’ Choice nom and plethora of praise for a picture that only continues to sky-rocket in momentum…there are strong, valid cases to make for all of these contenders and more. My gut says this quintet but it could just as easily be a combo of Condon, Bassett, Hsu, Buckley, and Chau or perhaps a fivesome of Condon, Curtis, Monae, Palmer, and Foy. It’s a category blissfully brimming with suspense. Intriguing, if a tad less unpredictable, is the landscape over in…
Best Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
Paul Dano, The Fabelmans
Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans
Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
—Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse
Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway
Brad Pitt, Babylon
Mark Rylance, Bones & All
Ben Whishaw, Women Talking
This category is increasingly giving me 1949 Best Supporting Actress vibes. That was a lineup that saw two films (Come to the Stable and Pinky) score noms for a pair of their performers (Celeste Holm & Elsa Lanchester and Ethel Barrymore & Ethel Waters), only for the fifth contender (Mercedes McCambridge in All the King’s Men) to prevail, and perhaps comfortably at that. That said, this quintet is hardly locked in, with only Quan and Gleeson ringing as true shoo-ins. Redmayne, who surfaced at the Globes, could prove a Jared Leto in The Little Things-level contender, and Henry, who’s scored some career-best notices and appearances at critics’ awards, continues to be in the conversation. I can fathom a scenario where Redmayne edges out Keoghan here, only for the latter to still triumph on Oscar noms morning…but I’ll stick with the latter making the cut at both.