2020 SAG Award Winner Predictions

Thank heaven for the SAG Awards. They’ll bring sorely needed clarity to what has been a whirlwind awards season, right?

Think again. If anything, I suspect the SAG Awards - my favorite awards season precursor of them all - are about to dig additional potholes onto the road to Oscar. Let’s dive into this…

Best Motion Picture Ensemble

1. Minari

2. The Trial of the Chicago 7

3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

4. Da 5 Bloods

5. One Night in Miami

With Best Picture front-runner (more like near-shoo-in at this point) Nomadland on the sidelines, the winner of this category will, more likely than not, emerge the most formidable threat to the Chloe Zhao film on Oscar night. One Night in Miami and, sadly, Da 5 Bloods, are hopeless here. Ma Rainey too is an extreme long shot, though, for reasons that will become clear in the next category, I don’t entirely discount it. Instead, this appears to be a barn burner between Minari, peaking at just the right time in the awards season and sporting two individual acting noms, and The Trial of the Chicago 7, the starry ensemble showcase that seems to be more sputtering than surging in momentum. The latter can still totally pull this off but my gut says Minari.

Best Female Actor in a Leading Role

1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

2. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman

3. Frances McDormand, Nomadland

4. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman

5. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy

If there’s one reason I have Ma Rainey ahead of Da 5 Bloods and One Night in Miami in Best Ensemble, it’s this - not only do I have Chadwick Boseman triumphing in Best Actor, I also have his leading lady taking home Best Actress. With four wins on five individual SAG nominations (she’s only fallen short for Doubt), Davis is an unimpeachable SAG favorite. Moreover, the film’s Ensemble bid indicates healthy support among members for Ma Rainey itself, which is more than can be said for Mulligan’s picture, which missed despite a sprawling cast of recognizable and well-utilized faces. With a Critics Choice win under her belt, Mulligan feels likes the current Oscar favorite, albeit a tentative one - and I suspect that standing is about to further soften. While not entirely out, McDormand or Kirby would be a surprise here, though nonetheless remain in the hunt for the Oscar. Adams will go 0-for-7 in individual SAG bids.

Best Male Actor in a Leading Role

1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father

3. Steven Yeun, Minari

4. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal

5. Gary Oldman, Mank

No contest, even with folks finally getting around to Hopkins’ turn on VOD.

Best Female Actor in a Supporting Role

1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy

2. Yuh-jung Youn, Minari

3. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

4. Olivia Colman, The Father

5. Helena Zengel, News of the World

Here, on the other hand, is a real race. Zengel, who missed with the Oscars, hasn’t a prayer and Colman sadly just never took off this awards season in terms of wins. This looks to be a three-way showdown among Close, the beloved actor’s actor who’s twice triumphed with SAG individual wins and whose film was respected enough by members to land a Best Actress nom for her co-star; Youn, the fellow veteran actor and lone contender from a Best Ensemble nominee; and Bakalova, the newcomer who has some momentum with the Critics Choice win and whose picture continues to flaunt surprising awards season strength. My feeling is if voters liked Hillbilly Elegy enough to nominate Adams’ polarizing turn, they probably admire it enough to give Close’s less divisive performance the win. But it’s just as easy to fathom Youn triumphing if her film is doing the same in Ensemble. If Bakalova wins here, she’s likely unstoppable for the Oscar.

Best Male Actor in a Supporting Role

1. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah

2. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods

3. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7

4. Leslie Odom, Jr. One Night in Miami

5. Jared Leto, The Little Things

Like Best Actor, this isn’t much of a race, though if the sentiment is overwhelming enough, I suppose it’s not entirely impossible for Boseman to earn two posthumous prizes, especially with Da 5 Bloods managing the Best Ensemble nom. Still, Kaluuya remains the commanding favorite, both here and at the Oscars. The other three, forget it.

Best Motion Picture Stunt Ensemble

1. Wonder Woman 1984

2. Mulan

3. Da 5 Bloods

4. News of the World

5. The Trial of the Chicago 7

The last three winners in this category were Avengers: Endgame, Black Panther and Wonder Woman, so it’s tough to bet against the superhero flick, though I wouldn’t completely count out Mulan. The Chicago 7 nomination makes me giggle.