2020 Golden Globe/SAG Nomination Predictions

At last!

I haven’t made a set of awards season predictions since my stab at Oscar nominations back in September - a list that included the likes of C’mon, C’mon, The Humans and Respect, none of which ultimately scored qualifying runs for this cycle.

I’m going to continue holding off on the Oscars until the Globes and SAG have had their say. With these nominations on the horizon next week, you know what time it is…TIME FOR PREDICTIONS!!

First off, I feel reasonably confident these precursors will look at least a tad different from what the critics’ awards have thus far offered up.

Mank, for instance, didn’t exactly catch fire among the critics but expect the Hollywood Foreign Press Association to shower it with at least a modest showing of love. The HFPA may also be more inclined to embrace the likes of News of the World and especially Borat Subsequent Moviefilm and The Prom, the latter two taking advantage of the ghost towns that are this year’s Comedy/Musical categories. Likewise, over at SAG, the likes of Amy Adams and Glenn Close, headlining a film decidedly not adored by the critics, are liable to surface.

The likes of Paul Raci and Youn Yuh-jung have proven fierce contenders with the critics but are hardly shoo-ins with these voting bodies. And then there’s Maria Bakalova, who’s charged out of the starting gates as something of a Supporting Actress front-runner but will be contending in Lead at the Globes - and is no guarantee at SAG (or BAFTA after that).

Pictures like The Personal History of David Copperfield and Wild Mountain Thyme, neither of which have much in the way of momentum, may also take advantage of the barren nature of the Comedy/Musical lineups at the Globes - only to still have no prayer on Oscar noms morning.

There are also late-breaking contenders, like Judas and the Black Messiah and Malcolm and Marie, hoping to make a splash. The former’s Daniel Kaluuya appears destined for that second Oscar nom but it remains a question mark how much it’ll be embraced in other categories. And then there’s the latter film’s Zendaya and John David Washington, who’ve generated heaps of chatter for their robust turns but will need to overcome crowded categories and Malcolm and Marie’s otherwise mixed reviews.

Even in a more slender season as this, these are tough races to forecast - and it’s easy to picture the Globes and SAG producing very different quintets in the acting fields, ultimately leaving it to BAFTA to provide some clarity.

Anyway, here’s what I’m thinking goes down next week. Who do you have scoring GG/SAG glory?

Golden Globes:

Best Motion Picture - Drama

1. Nomadland

2. Da 5 Bloods

3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

4. The Trial of the Chicago 7

5. Mank
   —

6. One Night in Miami

7. Promising Young Woman

8. Judas and the Black Messiah

9. News of the World

10. The Father

Best Motion Picture - Musical/Comedy

1. The Prom

2. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

3. Hamilton

4. Emma

5. The Personal History of David Copperfield
   —

6. Wild Mountain Thyme

7. Palm Springs

8. The King of Staten Island

9. On the Rocks

10. Enola Holmes

Best Director

1. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland

2. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods

3. David Fincher, Mank

4. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari

5. Regina King, One Night in Miami
   —

6. Paul Greengrass, News of the World

7. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7

8. Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman

9. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

10. George Clooney, The Midnight Sky

Best Screenplay

1. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland

2. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7

3. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari

4. Ruben Santiago-Hudson, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

5. Jack Fincher, Mank
   —

6. Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman

7. Florian Zeller and Christopher Hampton, The Father

8. Spike Lee, Danny Bilson, Paul De Meo and Kevin Willmott, Da 5 Bloods

9. Kemp Powers, One Night in Miami

10. Kelly Reichardt and Jonathan Raymond, First Cow

Best Actress - Drama

1. Frances McDormand, Nomadland

2. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

3. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman

4. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead

5. Zendaya, Malcolm and Marie
   —

6. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman

7. Andra Day, The People vs. Billie Holiday

8. Kate Winslet, Ammonite

9. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy

10. Sidney Flanigan, Never Rarely Sometimes Always

Best Actor - Drama

1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

2. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal

3. Anthony Hopkins, The Father

4. Gary Oldman, Mank

5. Tom Hanks, News of the World
   —

6. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods

7. Steven Yeun, Minari

8. John David Washington, Malcolm and Marie

9. Ben Affleck, The Way Back

10. George Clooney, The Midnight Sky

Best Actress - Musical/Comedy

1. Meryl Streep, The Prom

2. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

3. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit

4. Anya Taylor-Joy, Emma

5. Emily Blunt, Wild Mountain Thyme
   —

6. Millie Bobby Brown, Enola Holmes

7. Meryl Streep, Let Them All Talk

8. Cristin Milioti, Palm Springs

9. Rashida Jones, On the Rocks

10. Rachel McAdams, Eurovision Song Contest

Best Actor - Musical/Comedy

1. Sacha Baron Cohen, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

2. Dev Patel, The Personal History of David Copperfield

3. Andy Samberg, Palm Springs

4. Pete Davidson, The King of Staten Island

5. Jamie Dornan, Wild Mountain Thyme
   —

6. Leslie Odom, Jr., Hamilton

7. Lin-Manuel Miranda, Hamilton

8. James Corden, The Prom

9. Will Ferrell, Eurovision Song Contest

10. Mel Gibson, Fatman

Best Supporting Actress

1. Amanda Seyfried, Mank

2. Olivia Colman, The Father

3. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy

4. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman

5. Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian
   —

6. Youn Yuh-jung, Minari

7. Helena Zengel, News of the World

8. Nicole Kidman, The Prom

9. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite

10. Candice Bergen, Let Them All Talk

Best Supporting Actor

1. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami

2. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7

3. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah

4. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods

5. Bill Murray, On the Rocks
   —

6. Paul Raci, Sound of Metal

7. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7

8. Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7

9. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami

10. David Strathairn, Nomadland

Best Animated Feature

1. Soul

2. Over the Moon

3. Onward

4. Wolfwalkers

5. The Croods: A New Age
   —

6. Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon

7. Trolls World Tour

8. The Willloughbys

9. SpongeBob Movie: Sponge on the Run

10. No. 7 Cherry Lane

Best Foreign Language Film

1. Minari

2. Another Round

3. The Life Ahead

4. Quo Vadis, Aida?

5. Night of the Kings
   —

6. Never Gonna Snow Again

7. Apples

8. A Sun

9. My Little Sister

10. I’m No Longer Here

Best Original Score

1. Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, Mank

2. Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, Soul

3. James Newton Howard, News of the World

4. Emile Mosseri, Minari

5. Hans Zimmer and David Fleming, Hillbilly Elegy
   —

6. Christopher Willis, The Personal History of David Copperfield

7. Terence Blanchard, One Night in Miami

8. Daniel Pemberton, The Trial of the Chicago 7

9. Ludwid Göransson, Tenet

10. Terence Blanchard, Da 5 Bloods

Best Original Song

1. “Speak Now,” One Night in Miami

2. “Seen,” The Life Ahead

3. “Hear My Voice,” The Trial of the Chicago 7

4. “Wear Your Crown,” The Prom

5. “Carried Me with You,” Onward
   —

6. “Rocket to the Moon,” Over the Moon

7. “Queen Bee,” Emma

8. “Hometown,” Eurovision Song Contest

9. “The Wuhan Flu,” Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

10. “Turntables,” All In: The Fight for Democracy

Screen Actors Guild Awards:

Best Motion Picture Ensemble

1. Da 5 Bloods

2. One Night in Miami

3. The Trial of the Chicago 7

4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

5. Minari
   —

6. The Prom

7. Mank

8. Promising Young Woman

9. Nomadland

10. The Boys in the Band

Best Female Actor in a Leading Role

1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland

3. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman

4. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman

5. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy
   —

6. Meryl Streep, The Prom

7. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead

8. Elisabeth Moss, The Invisible Man

9. Zendaya, Malcolm and Marie

10. Kate Winslet, Ammonite

Best Male Actor in a Leading Role

1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

2. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal

3. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods

4. Anthony Hopkins, The Father

5. Gary Oldman, Mank
   —

6. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami

7. Tom Hanks, News of the World

8. Steven Yeun, Minari

9. John David Washington, Malcolm and Marie

10. Ben Affleck, The Way Back

Best Female Actor in a Supporting Role

1. Amanda Seyfried, Mank

2. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman

3. Olivia Colman, The Father

4. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy

5. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite
   —

6. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

7. Youn Yuh-jung, Minari

8. Helena Zengel, News of the World

9. Toni Collette, I’m Thinking of Ending Things

10. Candice Bergen, Let Them All Talk

Best Male Actor in a Supporting Role

1. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods

2. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami

3. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7

4. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah

5. Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
   —

6. Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7

7. Glynn Turman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

8. David Strathairn, Nomadland

9. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7

10. Bill Murray, On the Rocks

2019 SAG Award Winner Predictions

The SAG Awards are the best awards.

Not only do they run a breezy two hours (and, more often than not, sport some of the more inspired nominees of awards season), they’re also prone to delivering amazing upsets, like Emily Blunt’s victory last year for A Quiet Place. That turn was not Oscar-nominated, nor was Idris Elba’s SAG-winning performance in Beasts of No Nation. And let’s not forget the time The Birdcage topped The English Patient for Best Ensemble honors.

That being said, are we really in for another jaw-dropper this weekend? Let’s run through these categories…

Best Motion Picture Ensemble

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

2. The Irishman

3. Parasite

4. Jojo Rabbit

5. Bombshell

Bombshell, the lone nominee not up for the Best Picture Oscar, is almost certainly dead last here, with Jojo Rabbit in negligibly stronger contention. Instead, this strikes me as a close three-way affair among The Irishman (which just prevailed in this category over at the Critics’ Choice Awards), Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and Parasite. I give the Tarantino flick an edge here, as The Irishman seems to be conking out a bit in terms of awards season momentum and Parasite failed to land an individual acting nom here - an issue which did not prove fatal to winner Black Panther last year but is decidedly not a helpful stat nonetheless.

Best Female Actor in a Leading Role

1. Renee Zellweger, Judy

2. Lupita Nyong’o, Us

3. Charlize Theron, Bombshell

4. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story

5. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet

If there’s an Emily Blunt-level upset waiting in the wings, it might just be from Nyong’o, the critics’ darling, in the most commercially successful of these five pictures. Still, Zellweger remains the safe bet, with Theron perhaps not terribly far behind, given actors’ apparent affection for Bombshell. Johansson is not happening, nor is Erivo.

Best Male Actor in a Leading Role

1. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker

2. Adam Driver, Marriage Story

3. Taron Egerton, Rocketman

4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

5. Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari

There are scant signs of the Phoenix train coming to a halt this awards season. Driver, whose film surprisingly missed up in Best Ensemble (a deadly development for its Best Picture Oscar hopes), will be the distant runner-up, with the remaining trio, including uber-campaigner Egerton, trailing even further behind.

Best Female Actor in a Supporting Role

1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story

2. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers

3. Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit

4. Margot Robbie, Bombshell

5. Nicole Kidman, Bombshell

Perhaps there’ll be a scattering of sympathy votes for Lopez - probably enough to keep her in second place here - but this was always going to be an easy win for Dern, even had Lopez scored the Golden Globe. Johansson has not prevailed anywhere for her Jojo turn and Bombshell fans are destined to split their votes between Robbie and Kidman - not that the latter’s absence would have much bolstered the former’s bid.

Best Male Actor in a Supporting Role

1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

2. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

3. Al Pacino, The Irishman

4. Joe Pesci, The Irishman

5. Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy

Hanks enters SAG weekend with some leftover buzz from his Cecil B. DeMille win over at the Globes but such feeling won’t be warm enough to overtake Pitt, who’s turning into something of a shoo-in for his first acting Oscar. Pacino and Pesci are looking decreasingly formidable and Just Mercy just never took off this season.

Best Motion Picture Stunt Ensemble

1. Avengers: Endgame

2. Ford v Ferrari

3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

4. Joker

5. The Irishman

This may actually be the most wide-open affair of the evening but probably bank on the action-packed Marvel flick triumphing - Black Panther prevailed last time around, with DC’s Wonder Woman winning the year prior. If, however, voters are inclined for a prestige champion here, it could be anyone’s game.

2019 Golden Globe/SAG Nomination Predictions

It’s the most wonderful time of the year!

Yes, I sure do love the Golden Globes and SAG Awards - what human being, after all, wouldn’t be enamored with precursors that once gave Jodie Foster, Shirley MacLaine and Sigourney Weaver a Best Actress three-way tie or awards that bestowed recognition upon not only Nathan Lane but Hank Azaria too for The Birdcage?

Especially in a season this chaotic, expect no shortage of jaw-droppers, both on nominations morning and awards night.

At the Globes, beyond the expected showering of nominations on The Irishman and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, prepare for heaps of affection toward the likes of Jojo Rabbit and Joker too - even if they don’t make as heavy a splash later on with the Oscars. The Hollywood Foreign Press Association is liable to go gaga for the starry Little Women and generally goes bananas for a movie musical…even if it isn’t a good one (hello, Best Picture nominees The Phantom of the Opera and The Producers). Hence, even if Cats is a stinker, it could still make a nice showing here.

Don’t be surprised if the SAG nominations look considerably different than what the Globes serve up.

I’m keeping an especially close eye on Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress, where it’s so easy to see veterans like Alan Alda, John Lithgow and Maggie Smith emerge at SAG after Globe snubs.

Speaking of Dame Maggie, the SAG Awards used to eat up Downton Abbey in a huge way when it competed for television prizes, including three victories in the top Best Drama Ensemble category. If this at all translates to the film awards, it is completely plausible the film earns a Film Ensemble nom here. Keep an eye out too for real stunners like Elisabeth Moss (Her Smell) and Mary Kay Place (Diane), who could perhaps flabbergast awards season followers on a Sarah Silverman (I Smile Back)-level.

Oh, and Helen Mirren, GG/SAG/BAFTA nominee for Hitchcock, could easily land at either or both of these for The Good Liar.

Happy predicting! :)

Golden Globes:

Best Motion Picture - Drama

1. The Irishman

2. Marriage Story

3. 1917

4. Joker

5. Little Women
   —

6. Bombshell

7. The Two Popes

8. Richard Jewell

9. Ford v Ferrari

10. Avengers: Endgame

Best Motion Picture - Musical/Comedy

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

2. Jojo Rabbit

3. Rocketman

4. Hustlers

5. Cats
   —

6. Knives Out

7. The Peanut Butter Falcon

8. Dolemite Is My Name

9. Booksmart

10. Yesterday

Best Director

1. Martin Scorsese, The Irishman

2. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

3. Sam Mendes, 1917

4. Greta Gerwig, Little Women

5. Todd Phillips, Joker
   —

6. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit

7. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story

8. Bong Joon-ho, Parasite

9. Clint Eastwood, Richard Jewell

10. Tom Hooper, Cats

Best Screenplay

1. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

2. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story

3. Steven Zaillian, The Irishman

4. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit

5. Greta Gerwig, Little Women
   —

6. Anthony McCarten, The Two Popes

7. Bong Joon-ho and Jin Won Han, Parasite

8. Rian Johnson, Knives Out

9. Lulu Wang, The Farewell

10. Charles Randolph, Bombshell

Best Actress - Drama

1. Renee Zellweger, Judy

2. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story

3. Charlize Theron, Bombshell

4. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women

5. Helen Mirren, The Good Liar
   —

6. Lupita Nyong’o, Us

7. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet

8. Felicity Jones, The Aeronauts

9. Alfre Woodard, Clemency

10. Elisabeth Moss, Her Smell

Best Actor - Drama

1. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker

2. Adam Driver, Marriage Story

3. Robert De Niro, The Irishman

4. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes

5. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
   —

6. Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems

7. Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari

8. George MacKay, 1917

9. Paul Walter Hauser, Richard Jewell

10. Mark Ruffalo, Dark Waters

Best Actress - Musical/Comedy

1. Awkwafina, The Farewell

2. Constance Wu, Hustlers

3. Emma Thompson, Late Night

4. Ana de Armas, Knives Out

5. Francesca Hayward, Cats
   —

6. Cate Blanchett, Where’d You Go, Bernadette?

7. Dakota Johnson, The Peanut Butter Falcon

8. Charlize Theron, Long Shot

9. Beanie Feldstein, Booksmart

10. Angelina Jolie, Maleficent: Mistress of Evil

Best Actor - Musical/Comedy

1. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

2. Taron Egerton, Rocketman

3. Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name

4. Daniel Craig, Knives Out

5. Shia LaBeouf, The Peanut Butter Falcon
   —

6. Roman Griffin Davis, Jojo Rabbit

7. Himesh Patel, Yesterday

8. Will Smith, Aladdin

9. Bryan Cranston, The Upside

10. Zachary Levi, Shazam!

Best Supporting Actress

1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story

2. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers

3. Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit

4. Margot Robbie, Bombshell

5. Florence Pugh, Little Women
   —

6. Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey

7. Penelope Cruz, Pain and Glory

8. Zhao Shuzhen, The Farewell

9. Nicole Kidman, Bombshell

10. Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell

Best Supporting Actor

1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

2. Al Pacino, The Irishman

3. Joe Pesci, The Irishman

4. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

5. Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
   —

6. Timothee Chalamet, Little Women

7. Shia LaBeouf, Honey Boy

8. Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse

9. Jamie Bell, Rocketman

10. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit

Best Animated Feature

1. Toy Story 4

2. Frozen II

3. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World

4. Missing Link

5. Abominable
   —

6. The Addams Family

7. Spies in Disguise

8. Weathering with You

9. Okko’s Inn

10. I Lost My Body

Best Foreign Language Film

1. Parasite

2. The Farewell

3. Pain and Glory

4. Portrait of a Lady on Fire

5. Les Miserables
   —

6. The Boy Who Harnessed the Wind

7. Monos

8. Atlantics

9. The Painted Bird

10. Dear Ex

Best Original Score

1. Thomas Newman, 1917

2. Alexandre Desplat, Little Women

3. Michael Giacchino, Jojo Rabbit

4. Hildur Guðnadóttir, Joker

5. Marco Beltrami and Buck Sanders, Ford v Ferrari
   —

6. Randy Newman, Marriage Story

7. Steven Price, The Aeronauts

8. Nate Heller, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

9. Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, Waves

10. Alan Silvestri, Avengers: Endgame

Best Original Song

1. “I’m Gonna Love Me Again,” Rocketman

2. “Into the Unknown,” Frozen II

3. “Beautiful Ghosts,” Cats

4. “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away,” Toy Story 4

5. “Speechless,” Aladdin
   —

6. “Stand Up,” Harriet

7. “I’m Standing with You,” Breakthrough

8. “Don’t Call Me (Angel),” Charlie’s Angels

9. “One Little Soldier,” Bombshell

10. “Spirit,” The Lion King

Screen Actors Guild Awards:

Best Motion Picture Ensemble

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

2. The Irishman

3. Marriage Story

4. Bombshell

5. Hustlers
   —

6. Little Women

7. Knives Out

8. Downton Abbey

9. Avengers: Endgame

10. Jojo Rabbit

Best Female Actor in a Leading Role

1. Renee Zellweger, Judy

2. Charlize Theron, Bombshell

3. Awkwafina, The Farewell

4. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story

5. Alfre Woodard, Clemency
   —

6. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women

7. Helen Mirren, The Good Liar

8. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet

9. Lupita Nyong’o, Us

10. Mary Kay Place, Diane

Best Male Actor in a Leading Role

1. Adam Driver, Marriage Story

2. Robert De Niro, The Irishman

3. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker

4. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory

5. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes
   —

6. Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name

7. Taron Egerton, Rocketman

8. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

9. Mark Ruffalo, Dark Waters

10. Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari

Best Female Actor in a Supporting Role

1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story

2. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers

3. Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey

4. Penelope Cruz, Pain and Glory

5. Nicole Kidman, Bombshell
   —

6. Annette Bening, The Report

7. Margot Robbie, Bombshell

8. Florence Pugh, Little Women

9. Zhao Shuzhen, The Farewell

10. Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit

Best Male Actor in a Supporting Role

1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

2. Al Pacino, The Irishman

3. Joe Pesci, The Irishman

4. Alan Alda, Marriage Story

5. John Lithgow, Bombshell
   —

6. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

7. Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes

8. Sterling K. Brown, Waves

9. Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse

10. Song Kang-ho, Parasite

2018 SAG Awards Winner Predictions

Best Ensemble:

1. Crazy Rich Asians

2. Bohemian Rhapsody

3. Black Panther

4. BlacKkKlansman

5. A Star Is Born

If there’s a five-way jump ball at this year’s SAG Awards (on the film side, at least), it’s for the top prize. That A Star Is Born, the most plausible Best Picture Oscar winner of the bunch, is probably trailing in fifth, is a testament to the baffling uncertainty of Best Ensemble. The celebrated turns from Bradley Cooper, Lady Gaga and Sam Elliott aside, A Star Is Born is rarely cited as sporting one of the finest acting troupes of 2018. It cannot, however, be counted out. If enough voters approach this category as a referendum on the year’s best film, as opposed to the most robust ensemble showcase, it could come out on top. A tad less likely to triumph in Best Picture but flaunting more voluminous casts are BlacKkKlansman and Black Panther, each a plenty plausible champion. If there’s a dark horse here, it’s probably Golden Globe winner Bohemian Rhapsody - sure, it’s more or less a vehicle for Rami Malek exclusively (hence, the raising of countless eyebrows upon the announcement of its nomination here) but the adoration for this picture in certain circles cannot be ignored. Alas, perplexing it may sound, I suspect it’s the one non-Oscar nominee, Crazy Rich Asians, for the win - the splashiest, most gargantuan of companies, gracing a picture that was among the year’s most commercially successful hits.

Best Leading Actor:

1. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody

2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born

3. Christian Bale, Vice

4. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

5. John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman

Mortensen and the fabulous Washington will be sitting this one out on the sidelines. Bale, with the Golden Globe victory and not one but two Critics’ Choice wins, would appear to be in the best shape he’s been in all awards season. Color me skeptical, however, that there’s really that much appetite in the industry to position Bale for a second Oscar - and for a film so few are passionate about. The lack of Vice in Best Ensemble - which seemed a given, considering its starry cast - leaves me all the more skeptical that Bale prevails here. Cooper, I suspect, is better-positioned here. His film has the Ensemble nod and unlike other precursors this season, there is no potential for vote-splitting between his bids for directing and acting. This could be where Cooper at last takes off but my sense is, even with the film’s controversies, it’ll be Malek. Not only did his film land the most jaw-dropping of honors in Ensemble, Malek, Mr. Robot himself, is very likely to fare well among the guild’s television actors. Bale, Cooper and Malek are all plausible winners but it’s tough for me to fathom Malek losing with Bohemian Rhapsody evidently worshiped by voters here.

Best Leading Actress:

1. Glenn Close, The Wife

2. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born

3. Olivia Colman, The Favourite

4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

5. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns

McCarthy, who has gone tragically underappreciated this awards season (in terms of wins, at least), and Blunt haven’t a prayer. Colman has no shortage of adoring fans but, like Bale, is not helped by her picture’s absence for the top prize - she’ll find herself in better shape come BAFTA night. Gaga’s film did make the Ensemble cut and the actress/songstress did manage that surprise Critics’ Choice tie with Close (and gave a memorable speech to boot). Alas, from my vantage point, Gaga’s run for the Oscar all but ended at the Golden Globes. She should have been a shoo-in with the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, a body that once awarded Best Actress honors to Madonna (for Evita) over Frances McDormand (for Fargo). That she fell short is not necessarily a testament to her weakness in Best Actress but rather the strength of Close, both in performance and overdue narrative. SAG was always going to be Close’s best bet for a precursor, even had she lost at the Globes and Critics’ Choice, so her surprisingly triumphing at those two events makes her all the more a sure bet among guild members. I hesitate to call her a shoo-in but if there is one among these five categories, Close comes closest.

Best Supporting Actor:

1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book

2. Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born

3. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

4. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman

5. Timothée Chalamet, Beautiful Boy

Chalamet and Driver are out, as is probably the fabulous Grant, who’ll have a better shot at BAFTA later on. Golden Globe winner Ali is the front-runner, no doubt, helped all the more by his acclaimed turn on HBO’s presently airing True Detective. He is not, however, a favorite on the level of Close. Green Book missed in Best Ensemble, which, while not a monumental surprise, is perhaps indicative of less support among SAG members than voters within the HFPA (which awarded the film not only Best Picture and Best Supporting Actor but Best Screenplay to boot) and PGA (which too awarded Green Book its top honor). There’s also the Sam Elliott factor. Elliott has been less a presence this awards season than initially projected, missing at both the Globes and BAFTA. He is, however, a veteran actor of the big and small screens who has worked with just about everyone in the industry. I remain skeptical he’ll pull a SAG win off but it’s well within the realm of possibility, especially if voters wish to throw A Star Is Born a consolation bone somewhere.

Best Supporting Actress:

1. Amy Adams, Vice

2. Emma Stone, The Favourite

3. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

4. Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place

5. Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots

Here’s the most uncertain of the non-Ensemble prizes. Sans Robbie, whose picture just never much took off this awards season, I believe a legitimate case could be made for any of these contenders, all helped by the flabbergasting snub of Golden Globe/Critics’ Choice winner Regina King. If Weisz can pull this off, she’ll find herself well-positioned to face King on Oscar night - she’s likely to take BAFTA and the one-two punch of this and that could be the formula necessary to overcome the Beale Street front-runner. Where Weisz is favored at BAFTA, however, I suspect her The Favourite co-star Stone may have an edge among SAG members. And then there’s Blunt, who hasn’t a prayer in Best Actress, so if voters wish to award her somewhere, this is the place to do it. But ultimately, despite the lack of Vice in Best Ensemble, my hunch is Adams pulls this one off, which is fabulous news for King, as an Adams victory here and Weisz win at BAFTA would result in no clear alternative to King on Oscar night. The overdue narrative for Adams hasn’t been nearly as prevalent as Close’s this season but might just be compelling enough to get her across the finish line in a King-free affair.

2018 SAG Award Nominations

Congratulations to this year’s SAG Award nominees!

Best Ensemble:

Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
Crazy Rich Asians
A Star Is Born

Best Leading Actor:

Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman

Best Leading Actress:

Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns
Glenn Close, The Wife
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Best Supporting Actor:

Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Timothée Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Best Supporting Actress:

Amy Adams, Vice
Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place
Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite