2017 Governors Awards Honorees

Congratulations to this year's incredible Governors Awards honorees!

Charles Burnett, writer/director (The Glass Shield, Killer of Sheep, To Sleep with Anger)

Owen Roizman, cinematographer (The Exorcist, Network, Tootsie)

Donald Sutherland, actor (Don't Look Now, M*A*S*H, Ordinary People)

Agnes Varda, director (Cleo from 5 to 7, La Pointe Courte, Vagabond)

2017 Oscar Nomination Predictions (Summer Edition)

Too early to start talking the 2017 Oscars? As if!

Heaps, no doubt, will change over the months to come, as a host of pictures, both big and small, flood theaters with awards season aspirations. There will be the Allieds and the Rules Don't Applys, the supposed surefire Oscar contenders that instead spectacularly go up in flames. There will also be the sleepers, like Hell or High Water and Hidden Figures, with surprise success in store, perhaps at the 11 o'clock hour. And there will be the heartbreakers, like Jackie and 20th Century Women, that don't quite triumph on Oscar nominations morning like they should.

This far out, nomination predictions, much as I have a blast putting them together, are very much a shot in the dark. Yes, a pocketful of contenders have already seen the light of day in theaters and sure, another handful have screened here and there. The vast majority, however, remain complete question marks.

The likes of Steven Spielberg's The Papers, Joe Wright's Darkest Hour and Paul Thomas Anderson's Phantom Thread, on paper at least, sound like knockouts, poised to feast on recognition come awards season. Of course, we won't know for some time if any of those three pictures will live up to such expectations.

Woody Allen, Darren Aronofsky, Kathryn Bigelow and Christopher Nolan, among other juggernaut filmmakers, all have films this year, while Oscar favorites including Daniel Day-Lewis, Judi Dench, Frances McDormand, Michael Shannon (yes, I totally consider him an Oscar fave after pulling not one but two nominations out of a hat) and, of course, Meryl Streep are gearing up to potentially barnstorm this awards season.

There are countless questions. Will Murder on the Orient Express flop or flourish? Can Get Out emerge a serious contender, despite Oscar aversion to horror and an early release date? Will Tom Hanks at last return to the Oscars after a series of snubs? What about Jake Gyllenhaal? And just what on earth is Mother! really all about?

Those inquiries and many more shall soon be answered. For now, let's take a rough stab at this. Below you will find my first Oscar nomination predictions of the year, ranked from most to least likely to be recognized. A handful of categories - Foreign Film, Documentary Feature, Original Song and the shorts - I don't feel confident at all forecasting this far out, so I'll hold off on those until the fall.

Of course, I wholeheartedly encourage you to comment with your own thoughts and predictions as well. This, no doubt, per usual, will be one hell of an awards season.

Here's to the 2017 Oscars!

Best Picture

1. Dunkirk
2. The Papers
3. Darkest Hour
4. Call Me By Your Name
5. Phantom Thread
6. The Current War
7. Detroit
8. Marshall
9. Breathe
   ---
10. Blade Runner 2049
11. Mother!
12. Wonder Wheel
13. The Big Sick
14. Victoria & Abdul
15. Get Out

Best Director

1. Steven Spielberg, The Papers
2. Joe Wright, Darkest Hour
3. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
4. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread
5. Darren Aronofsky, Mother!
   ---
6. Kathryn Bigelow, Detroit
7. Denis Villenueve, Blade Runner 2049
8. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me By Your Name
9. Alfonso Gomez-Rejon, The Current War
10. Andy Serkis, Breathe

Best Lead Actor

1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
3. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Current War
4. Andrew Garfield, Breathe
5. Chadwick Boseman, Marshall
   ---
6. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger
7. Tom Hanks, The Papers
8. Bryan Cranston, Last Flag Flying
9. Denzel Washington, Roman Israel, Esq.
10. Donald Sutherland, The Leisure Seeker

Best Lead Actress

1. Meryl Streep, The Papers
2. Judi Dench, Victoria & Abdul
3. Jennifer Lawrence, Mother!
4. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel
5. Jessica Chastain, Molly's Game
   ---
6. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri
7. Claire Foy, Breathe
8. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes
9. Annette Bening, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool
10. Glenn Close, The Wife

Best Supporting Actor

1. Michael Shannon, The Current War
2. Ben Mendelsohn, Darkest Hour
3. Sterling K. Brown, Marshall
4. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me By Your Name
5. Steve Carell, Last Flag Flying
   ---
6. Armie Hammer, Call Me By Your Name
7. Colin Farrell, Roman Israel, Esq.
8. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound
9. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
10. Ray Romano, The Big Sick

Best Supporting Actress

1. Melissa Leo, Novitiate
2. Kristin Scott-Thomas, Darkest Hour
3. Michelle Pfeiffer, Mother!
4. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick
5. Carrie Coon, The Papers
   ---
6. Katherine Waterston, The Current War
7. Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
8. Kirsten Dunst, The Beguiled
9. Julianne Moore, Wonderstruck
10. Nicole Kidman, The Killing of a Sacred Deer

Best Original Screenplay

1. Anthony McCarten, Darkest Hour
2. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread
3. Michael Mitnick, The Current War
4. Woody Allen, Wonder Wheel
5. Joel and Ethan Coen, Suburbicon
   ---
6. Emily V. Gordon and Kumail Nanjiani, The Big Sick
7. Alexander Payne and Jim Taylor, Downsizing
8. Efthymis Filippou and Yorgos Lanthimos, The Killing of a Sacred Deer
9. Jordan Peele, Get Out
10. Michael and Jacob Koskoff, Marshall

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Liz Hannah and Josh Singer, The Papers
2. Walter Fasano, Luca Guardagnino and James Ivory, Call Me By Your Name
3. Richard Linklater and Darryl Ponicsan, Last Flag Flying
4. Lee Hall, Victoria & Abdul
5. Dee Rees and Virgil Williams, Mudbound
   ---
6. Sofia Coppola, The Beguiled
7. Aaron Sorkin, Molly's Game
8. Andrew Haigh, Lean on Pete
9. Ian McEwan, On Chesil Beach
10. Hampton Fancher and Michael Green, Blade Runner 2049

Best Animated Feature

1. Coco
2. The Breadwinner
3. Cars 3
4. Ferdinand
5. Despicable Me 3
   ---
6. The Lego Batman Movie
7. The Star
8. The Lego Ninjago
9. Captain Underpants
10. My Entire High School Sinking into the Sea

Best Cinematography

1. Roger Deakins, Blade Runner 2049
2. Hoyte Van Hoytema, Dunkirk
3. Barry Ackroyd, Detroit
4. Bruno Delbonnel, Darkest Hour
5. Robert Richardson, Breathe
   ---
6. Matthew Libatique, Mother!
7. Janusz Kaminski, The Papers
8. Sayombhu Mukdeeprom, Call Me By Your Name
9. Edward Lachmann, Wonderstruck
10. Phillippe Le Sourd, The Beguiled

Best Costume Design

1. Mark Bridges, Phantom Thread
2. Consolata Boyle, Victoria & Abdul
3. Jacqueline Durran, Darkest Hour
4. Stacey Battat, The Beguiled
5. Ruth E. Carter, Marshall
   ---
6. Ellen Miojnick, The Greatest Showman
7. Jacqueline Durran, Beauty and the Beast
8. Alexandra Byrne, Murder on the Orient Express
9. Michael Wikinson, The Current War
10. Lindy Hemming, Wonder Woman

Best Film Editing

1. Lee Smith, Dunkirk
2. Michael Kahn, The Papers
3. William Goldenberg and Harry Yoon, Detroit
4. Joe Walker, Blade Runner 2049
5. Dylan Tichenor, Phantom Thread
   ---
6. Valerio Bonelli, Darkest Hour
7. David Trachenberg, The Current War
8. Jonathan Amos and Paul Machliss, Baby Driver
9. Bob Ducsay, Star Wars: The Last Jedi
10. Andrew Weisblum, Mother!

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

1. Darkest Hour
2. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
3. Beauty and the Beast
   ---
4. The Greatest Showman
5. Murder on the Orient Express
6. The Current War
7. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
8. Wonderstruck
9. Logan
10. Mother!

Best Original Score

1. John Williams, The Papers
2. Hans Zimmer, Dunkirk
3. Dario Marianelli, Darkest Hour
4. Dustin O'Halloran, The Current War
5. Thomas Newman, Victoria & Abdul
   ---
6. Alexandre Desplat, The Shape of Water
7. Johann Johannsson, Blade Runner 2049
8. John Williams, Star Wars: The Last Jedi
9. Jonny Greenwood, Phantom Thread
10. Benj Pasek and Justin Paul, The Greatest Showman

Best Production Design

1. Sarah Greenwood, Darkest Hour
2. Dennis Gassner, Blade Runner 2049
3. Nathan Crowley, Dunkirk
4. Paul D. Austerberry, The Shape of Water
5. Mark Tildesley, Phantom Thread
   ---
6. Anne Ross, The Beguiled
7. Jan Roelfs, The Current War
8. Nathan Crowley, The Greatest Showman
9. Sarah Finley and Adam Squires, Victoria & Abdul
10. Philip Messina, Mother!

Best Sound Editing

1. Dunkirk
2. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
3. Blade Runner 2049
4. Detroit
5. Baby Driver
   ---
6. The Papers
7. The Current War
8. Spider-Man: Homecoming
9. Beauty and the Beast
10. Darkest Hour

Best Sound Mixing

1. Dunkirk
2. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
3. Blade Runner 2049
4. Detroit
5. The Papers
   ---
6. The Current War
7. Darkest Hour
8. Baby Driver
9. Phantom Thread
10. Coco

Best Visual Effects

1. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
2. Blade Runner 2049
3. Dunkirk
4. Beauty and the Beast
5. The Shape of Water
   ---
6. War for the Planet of the Apes
7. Wonder Woman
8. Spider-Man: Homecoming
9. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
10. Thor: Ragnarok

2nd Annual Awards Connection Oscar Prediction Contest - WINNER!

Congratulations to Michele Duspiva, winner of the 2nd Annual Awards Connection Oscar Prediction Contest! Kudos for not only acing all of the marquee races (sans the Best Picture shocker) but also having the brilliant hunch to go with Hacksaw Ridge in Sound Mixing. Hope you enjoy your Fandango gift card!

Thank you again to all 68 folks who participated this year!

2016 Oscar Winners

Congratulations to all of this year's fantastic Oscar winners!

BEST PICTURE
Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight

BEST DIRECTOR
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight

BEST ACTOR
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences

BEST ACTRESS
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Ruth Negga, Loving
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel, Lion
Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Viola Davis, Fences
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Hell or High Water
La La Land
The Lobster
Manchester by the Sea
20th Century Women

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Arrival
Fences
Hidden Figures
Lion
Moonlight

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Arrival
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Silence

BEST FILM EDITING
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Moonlight

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Deepwater Horizon
Doctor Strange
The Jungle Book
Kubo and the Two Strings
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Arrival
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Hail, Caesar!
La La Land
Passengers

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Allied
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Florence Foster Jenkins
Jackie
La La Land

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
A Man Called Ove
Star Trek Beyond
Suicide Squad

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Jackie
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Passengers

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Audition (The Fools Who Dream),” La La Land
“Can’t Stop the Feeling,” Trolls
“City of Stars,” La La Land
“The Empty Chair,” Jim: The James Foley Story
“How Far I’ll Go,” Moana

BEST SOUND EDITING
Arrival
Deepwater Horizon
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Sully

BEST SOUND MIXING
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
My Life as a Zucchini
The Red Turtle
Zootopia

BEST DOCUMENTARY
Fire at Sea
I Am Not Your Negro
Life, Animated
O.J.: Made in America
13th

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Land of Mine
A Man Called Ove
The Salesman
Tanna
Toni Erdmann

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
Extremis
4.1 Miles
Joe's Violin
Watani: My Homeland
The White Helmets

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
Ennemis Entreniers
La Femme et le TGV
Silent Nights
Sing
Timecode

BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Blind Vaysha
Borrowed Time
Pear Cider and Cigarettes
Pearl
Piper

FINAL 2016 Oscar Winner Predictions

At last, here we go!

It legit feels like just yesterday that I was predicting the likes of Allied, Billy Lynn's Last Halftime Walk and Rules Don't Apply for Oscar nominations. Now, here we are, with that trio of bombs long out of the picture and La La Land poised to steamroll Oscar night. The question remains, however - even if the Damien Chazelle film is a virtual shoo-in to claim the Best Picture prize, just how many wins will this thing really rack up? Can it realistically break the wins record with a dozen victories? I'm skeptical but also not convinced it's not plausible.

There are a bunch of categories I'm having a tough time projecting: among them, Lead Actor (an exciting barn burner between Affleck and Washington); Supporting Actor (SAG winner Ali vs. BAFTA winner Patel); Original Screenplay (has Manchester's momentum so faded that it can lose here?); Adapted Screenplay (don't presume Moonlight's a shoo-in...anything but Fences can win); Cinematography (Lion eying an upset); Visual Effects (five-way jump ball); and Costume Design (Jackie's consolation prize?). Upsets also seem ripe to me in Documentary Feature and all of the shorts categories. And yes, at this point, I do see Huppert as having a better shot at defeating Stone than Portman. (Not that it much matters, since I think of Stone as a pretty hefty front-runner.)

There are plenty of scenarios that can go down here, including a La La Land rout that leaves most of the Best Picture nominees trophy-less. Likewise, there's a chance, modest it as may be, that La La Land's support is overstated and it "only" goes home with half a dozen or even a tad fewer Oscars. (My final hunch is eight prizes.) I suspect we're in for one hell of an Oscar night, with at least a couple of true jaw-droppers.

With that said, here's what my gut is telling me...

Best Picture

1. La La Land
2. Hidden Figures
3. Lion
4. Moonlight
5. Manchester by the Sea
6. Hacksaw Ridge
7. Fences
8. Arrival
9. Hell or High Water

Best Director

1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land
2. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
3. Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
4. Denis Villenueve, Arrival
5. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea

Best Lead Actor

1. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
2. Denzel Washington, Fences
3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land
4. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
5. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic

Best Lead Actress

1. Emma Stone, La La Land
2. Isabelle Huppert, Elle
3. Natalie Portman, Jackie
4. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
5. Ruth Negga, Loving

Best Supporting Actor

1. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
2. Dev Patel, Lion
3. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
4. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals
5. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea

Best Supporting Actress

1. Viola Davis, Fences
2. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
3. Nicole Kidman, Lion
4. Naomie Harris, Moonlight
5. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures

Best Original Screenplay

1. Manchester by the Sea
2. La La Land
3. Hell or High Water
4. 20th Century Women
5. The Lobster

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Moonlight
2. Lion
3. Arrival
4. Hidden Figures
5. Fences

Best Cinematography

1. La La Land
2. Lion
3. Moonlight
4. Arrival
5. Silence

Best Film Editing

1. La La Land
2. Hacksaw Ridge
3. Moonlight
4. Hell or High Water
5. Arrival

Best Visual Effects

1. The Jungle Book
2. Kubo and the Two Strings
3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
4. Deepwater Horizon
5. Doctor Strange

Best Production Design

1. La La Land
2. Arrival
3. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
4. Hail, Caesar!
5. Passengers

Best Costume Design

1. Jackie
2. La La Land
3. Florence Foster Jenkins
4. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
5. Allied

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Star Trek: Beyond
2. A Man Called Ove
3. Suicide Squad

Best Original Score

1. La La Land
2. Lion
3. Jackie
4. Moonlight
5. Passengers

Best Original Song

1. "How Far I'll Go," Moana
2. "City of Stars," La La Land
3. "Audition (The Fools Who Dream)," La La Land
4. "The Empty Chair," Jim: The James Foley Story
5. "Can't Stop the Feeling," Trolls

Best Sound Editing

1. Hacksaw Ridge
2. Arrival
3. La La Land
4. Deepwater Horizon
5. Sully

Best Sound Mixing

1. La La Land
2. Hacksaw Ridge
3. Arrival
4. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
5. 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi

Best Animated Feature

1. Zootopia
2. Kubo and the Two Strings
3. Moana
4. My Life as a Zucchini
5. The Red Turtle

Best Documentary Feature

1. Fire at Sea
2. 13th
3. O.J.: Made in America
4. Life, Animated
5. I Am Not Your Negro

Best Foreign Language Film

1. The Salesman
2. Toni Erdmann
3. A Man Called Ove
4. Tanna
5. Land of Mine

Best Documentary Short Subject

1. Joe's Violin
2. Watani: My Homeland
3. 4.1 Miles
4. The White Helmets
5. Extremis

Best Live Action Short

1. Silent Nights
2. La Femme et le TGV
3. Timecode
4. Ennemis Entreniers
5. Sing

Best Animated Short

1. Pear Cider and Cigarettes
2. Pearl
3. Piper
4. Blind Vaysha
5. Borrowed Time