Andrew's 2015 SAG Awards predictions

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Who will emerge victorious at this year's Screen Actors Guild Awards? Will The Big Short drive a stake through Spotlight's heart, all but ending the latter's chances of winning the Best Picture Oscar? Will it be Christian Bale or Mark Rylance who prevails, emerging top competitor to Sylvester Stallone? And just who will take the four-way jump ball of a category that is Best Supporting Actress?

Here are my two cents...

Best Ensemble

  1. Spotlight
  2. The Big Short
  3. Straight Outta Compton
  4. Trumbo
  5. Beasts of No Nation

Sorry, Trumbo and Beasts, but you'll be sitting on the sidelines on this one. Had Compton garnered a Best Picture nod from the Academy, I suspect it may have been well-positioned for an upset here. Alas, it's proven a very tough task for non-Best Picture nominees to win this Ensemble prize - only one, the star-studded The Birdcage, has managed to pull it off in all of SAG history. Ultimately, I see this as quite a tight battle between Spotlight and The Big Short. If SAG wants to foreshadow the Best Picture Oscar winner, as they did with the likes of The King's Speech and Slumdog Millionaire, Spotlight probably takes this one. If, however, they want to let loose and go for the more fun cast, regardless of what Oscar does, ala American Hustle or yes, The Birdcage, it's probably The Big Short ensemble that triumphs.

Best Leading Actor

  1. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
  2. Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
  3. Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
  4. Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
  5. Johnny Depp, Black Mass

Will be smooth sailing for inevitable Oscar-winner DiCaprio, though expect Cranston to garner quite a few votes from the TV side of the guild. Still, it won't be close.

Best Leading Actress

  1. Brie Larson, Room
  2. Cate Blanchett, Carol
  3. Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
  4. Helen Mirren, Woman in Gold
  5. Sarah Silverman, I Smile Back

The entirely unexpected nominations for double-nominee Mirren and Silverman, who seemingly tried to pull what Jennifer Aniston did with Cake last year, will ultimately have to be what these two ladies settle for. Ronan will have a much better shot at winning at BAFTA in just over a week. In the end, I actually think Larson will triumph here rather comfortably, though if anyone can keep her from victory, it's probably Blanchett, who has worked alongside a whole lot of SAG members in her career. Still, Blanchett just prevailed here two years ago, already has two SAG trophies under her belt and the lack of an Ensemble nod for Carol suggests the acting branch isn't entirely head-over-heels for the picture. On the other hand, SAG nominated Larson's amazing co-star Jacob Tremblay, a sign that bodes quite well for Room's leading lady.

Best Supporting Actor

  1. Christian Bale, The Big Short
  2. Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
  3. Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
  4. Jacob Tremblay, Room
  5. Michael Shannon, 99 Homes

Prior to the Oscar nominations announcement, I was fully prepared to predict Elba here, given his respect in the acting community (both in film and television) and the shocking Ensemble nomination for his picture. Alas, an Oscar nod wasn't in the cards for Elba and, as a result, it's all but impossible to predict him (or fellow non-nominees Tremblay or Shannon) here. This will be a barn burner between the category's only two Oscar nominees and, given all of the momentum for The Big Short, I have to side with Bale. For the Oscar, however, I suspect Rylance will have the leg-up (and Sylvester Stallone the edge over him).

Best Supporting Actress

  1. Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
  2. Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
  3. Rooney Mara, Carol
  4. Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
  5. Helen Mirren, Trumbo

This category, I suspect, is the most wide-open, with only Mirren definitively benched. If the guild is truly ga-ga for Spotlight and wishes to pair its Ensemble win with a complimentary acting prize, McAdams is their only option. The thing is, it doesn't seem very many are that terribly passionate about the performance. Mara and Vikander have been this category's front-runners for seemingly the whole Oscar season, given the critical and awards attention for their pictures and their borderline-Lead status and either could surely win here. But it's awfully difficult to decide between the two and, the more I think about it, the more I believe Winslet, who has simply worked with more SAG members than Mara and Vikander, and who might be riding a bit of momentum post-Golden Globes, will triumph here. I don't think Winslet will win the Oscar - I suspect Vikander is best-positioned, given the likely BAFTA win - but this reeks to me of when Meryl Streep won at SAG for Doubt because it was an unsettled category and she had the highest name recognition.

Andrew's 2015 PGA Awards predictions

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Which picture shall emerge victorious at this year's Producers Guild of America Awards? Here is my hunch, ranked from most to least likely to prevail...

  1. The Revenant
  2. Spotlight
  3. The Big Short
  4. Mad Max: Fury Road
  5. Straight Outta Compton
  6. The Martian
  7. Sicario
  8. Ex Machina
  9. Bridge of Spies
  10. Brooklyn

This one's a toughie to forecast, not unlike the SAG and DGA awards to come. I can say with confidence that none of The Martian, through Brooklyn, will take home the trophy here, so there's that. If there's a dark horse in this line-up, it might well be Straight Outta Compton. Its lack of Best Picture nom at the Oscars would presumably force the picture to sit on the sidelines here, but you can't discount the possibility, even if it's a slim one, that PGA members use this opportunity to make a statement on the #OscarsSoWhite movement and bestow a surprise victory upon Compton. Still, it's probably unlikely, just as it's improbable the cast triumphs at SAG. I also would be a tad surprised if Mad Max or The Big Short pulled off a victory here, though some seem to think the latter's very much in the running and could even be a threat at the Oscars. I'm not quite on board with that sentiment, though a SAG Ensemble win for the Adam McKay picture could give me second thoughts on the heels of the Oscars. Ultimately, not unlike at the Globes, I think this is a tight, too-close-to-call showdown between The Revenant and Spotlight and, while I anticipate the Tom McCarthy film will score at SAG just over a week from now, I suspect the current buzz and box office for the Alejandro González Iñárritu film may instead carry the day here.

Andrew's 2015 DGA Award nominations predictions

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Tuesday, January 12 marks the announcement of 2015's DGA Award nominations. Here for your viewing pleasure are Andrew's two cents:

Revenant.jpg

1. Alejandro González Iñárritu, The Revenant
2. George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
3. Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
4. Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies
5. Ridley Scott, The Martian
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6. Todd Haynes, Carol
7. Adam McKay, The Big Short
8. J.J. Abrams, Star Wars: The Force Awakens
9. Lenny Abrahamson, Room
10. Danny Boyle, Steve Jobs

It will be quite a surprise if any of Iñárritu, Miller or McCarthy is snubbed at the announcement of this year's DGA nominations. Perhaps it is McCarthy, missing in action among this year's BAFTA nominees, who is on the shakiest footing. If he misses out here, it becomes exceedingly unlikely Spotlight can win Best Picture come Oscar night. Beyond those three gentleman, I have to go with the two most legendary filmmakers (besides Mr. Miller) in this year's Best Director race, Spielberg and Scott. Spielberg pretty much never misses at DGA when he has a picture in Oscar contention - he was nominated here for Amistad and Empire of the Sun and famously won at DGA for The Color Purple when the Academy didn't even nominate him. If Bridge of Spies hadn't been such an underperformer in this year's Oscar race thus far (beyond nods everywhere for supporting actor Mark Rylance), he would be a shoo-in. I suspect the 5th slot will be a tight one between Scott and Haynes. The DGA hasn't historically been as enamored with Scott as with Spielberg - he wasn't nominated for American Gangster and has never won at DGA. That being said, he is beloved in the directing community and while Haynes could certainly show up here, he hasn't influenced scores of DGA members in the way Scott has. From there, McKay and Abrams could ride their pictures' buzz and momentum to a nomination, though it would be a surprise. Abrahamson and Boyle will get their fair share of votes too but may have to settle for showing up as mere attendees, not nominees.